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Other Basin Talkpages (2016): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian |
Well, it's 2016 in the WPAC's time zone, and it looks like 9C may move into this basin, giving us an early start. Welcome to the 2016 typhoon season! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:31, December 31, 2015 (UTC)
- Gotta love how both CPAC and ATL could start faster than WPAC.-- 02:39, January 8, 2016 (UTC)
- Is it unusual that we have yet to see a single tropical cyclone in the WPAC in the middle of May? Jdcomix (talk) 16:08, May 15, 2016 (UTC)
Retirements at a glance[]
Might as well add this section because we are technically halfway through the season, and we've had several minor storms.
TG's Retirements[]
(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)
- Nepartak: 60% - A very powerful first storm that devastated parts of Eastern China, but it didn't really stand out compared to the floods which prevented the chance to be higher.
- Lupit: 0% - Even I didn't think anything could be worse than Felicia.
- Mirinae: 10% - Caused at least $289 million and five fatalities, but that doesn't warrant any retirement.
- Nida: 5% - Nida was originally feared by Hong Kong at one point, before it caused minor impacts.
- Omais: 5% - The start of the train of storms that kept tracking near Japan. Omais only caused minor damage, if any.
- Conson: 5% - The same as Omais, tracked near Japan. Minor damage, if any.
- Chanthu: 5% - Part of the Japan train of storms.
- Dianmu: 10% - Southern China got some impacts from this. Luckily, they were minor.
- Mindulle: 5% - A very odd typhoon that never reached C1 strength, however, it did cause damage in Japan.
- Lionrock: 95% - 163 fatalities and high amounts of damage from this storm can make Lionrock go for sure.
- Kompasu: 1% - Kompasu was kind of a fail, but it hit Japan so...
- Namtheun: 0% - No damage in Japan whatsoever.
- Malou: 0% - Malou was Lupit 2.0.
- Meranti: 99% - $2.61 billion, 30+ fatalities. Unless this pulls a Usagi, it's going.
- Rai: 20% - For a weak storm, it caused some moderate problems in Vietnam. Damage totals were $144,000 and fatalities were at 12.
- Malakas: 5% - Taiwan got another round of strong winds and heavy rain, but impacts were minimal.
- Megi: 60% - Megi has a fairly decent chance of going because of the damage in Taiwan. I'm not including what it did in China because it wasn't as bad.
- Chaba: 5% - Chaba wasn't as bad as we thought it would, so it's probably staying.
- Songda: 0% - Songda was an excellent storm to track, but its damages in the United States are yet to be determined.
- Aere: 40% - Aere was a pretty bad, but weak storm. $71.5 million in damages and 35 fatalities is nothing to laugh at, being slightly deadlier than Sarika.
- Sarika: 50% - $80.4 million and 34 fatalities is a lot for one country. I'm not betting on Sarika to go because both Hagupit '08 and Hagupit '14 both caused major damage in the Philippines but both did not go.
- Haima: 85% - Now, this is what I call a monster. This and Lawin are almost bound to go, but several storms like Haima got snubbed. That is why Haima does not have a 100% chance of going.
PAGASA:
- Karen: 100% - Retired already by the PAGASA.
- Lawin: 100% - Same as Karen.
- All other names: 0% - No names have met the retirement criteria.
Overall summary:
- Probably Gone - Lionrock, Meranti, Haima
- Possibly retired - Nepartak, Megi, Sarika
- Probably not retired - Mirinae, Dianmu, Rai, Aere
- Not retired - Everything else
That's it for now! TG 16:11, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
Ryan1000's retirement predictions:[]
I'm a bit bored, so I might as well make my calls on retirements for the WPac:
JMA names:
- Nepartak - 55% - It was damaging and somewhat deadly, but it wasn't as bad as some prior storms that hit the area, also most of the impacts were in China and China was dealing with worse floods earlier in the year. Still, those numbers qualify for something.
- Lupit - 0% - Unlike it's last two incarnations, which were both cat 5's, this failed miserably.
- Mirinae - 10% - It caused some damage and deaths, but those aren't notable for the impacted area.
- Nida - 5% - Only minor impacts near HK. they've seen far worse than Nida and it's not getting retired.
- Omais - 0% - Fishspinner with no impacts on land.
- Conson - 0% - See Omais.
- Chanthu - 1% - Passed close to Tokyo but with fairly little effects.
- Dinamu - 3% - Wasn't as bad as Mirinae, and even that likely isn't getting retired.
- Lionrock - 55% - Not too sure here; 133 of the 157 deaths were actually from remnants of Lionrock flooding North Korea and most of the damages were agricultural losses in China, it could be retired due to the deaths in North Korea but I can't be certain of it.
- Mindulle - 2% - Wasn't much different from Chanthu.
- Kompasu - 1% - Also minor effects in Japan.
- Namtheun - 0% - Passed close to Japan but no impacts were reported.
- Malou - 0% - Fail; even the JTWC never tracked this in its lifetime.
- Meranti - 65% - 2.61 billion in damage is fairly extensive, much more than Nepartak earlier this year, on top of 30 deaths is pretty good for retirment, not to mention the devastation of the northern Philippine Batan islands. Wouldn't surprise me if it goes, but I can't be certain as there were some typhoons that have done worse and didn't go. Still likely regardless.
- Rai - 15% - Only minor impacts in Vietnam.
- Malakas - 20% - Wasn't particularly severe for Japan as far as I know.
- Megi - 35% - Almost a billion dollars in damage and 24 deaths, mostly in China, isn't negligible, but it wasn't as bad as the two cat 5's earlier this year, and many other storms before. Outside shot at retirement, but I wouldn't count on it.
- Chaba - 10% - Skimmed near South Korea as a typhoon, but overall impacts weren't too bad.
- Songda - 0% - A strong fishspinner, and extratropical impacts in the NW U.S. don't count for retirement.
- Sarika - 10% - I doubt the Philippines will retire the JMA name, but since it caused over 1 billion PHP damage, Karen, Sarika's PAGASA name, meets their retirement criteria and will be retired.
- Haima - 30% - Caused several hundred million dollars in damage to southern China, and became one of the strongest typhoons to hit China during October, but there have been costlier and deadlier typhoons to hit China that weren't retired, it wouldn't surprise me if Haima stays too.
PAGASA names:
- Karen - 100% - Damage is over 3 billion PHP dollars, so it meets PAGASA's criteria to be retired.
- Lawin - 100% - Assuming the initial 3 billion PHP damage report is accurate, same as Karen.
- All other names - 0% - A storm must cause 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities to be automatically retired in the Philippines, and no other named storms from PAGASA's naming list meet that criteria thus far.
And there you have RyanK's retirements. Ryan1000 08:05, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
A2.0's retirement forecast[]
JMA:
- Should be retired (76-100%): none yet.
- Probably retired (61-75%; impacts are very notable):
- Lionrock - 150+ deaths in NoKor, but if Khanun 2012 did not go, I think this won't go either.
- Meranti - strongest storm of the season, and of course it's destructive. $2 billion worth of damages so far, and I think that's enough for this storm to be retired, unless things may happen and Meranti won't be retired.
- Haima - oh no. This storm was destructive; in the Philippines, 7-13 deaths and nearly PHP 3 billion (~$62.2 million) worth of damages and is expected to rise higher, though not to Haiyan's extent. Even HK was not spared: HK$5 billion (~$640+ million) worth of damages and one death in HK. However, there were previous storms that did not get their names retired, prime examples would be Nesat '11 and Hagupit '08.
- Possible to be retired (30-60%; impacts are notable but not enough for a higher chance of retirement):
- Malakas - death toll is quite low but the damages are up to $739 million. Countries affected by this storm has seen worse though.
- Megi - 24 fatalities and $945 million worth of damage is not a joke, but it is not enough for a high chance of retirement. We'll see.
- Sarika - though overshadowed by Haima in the Philippines, this affected Vietnam and Hainan. 30+ deaths so far, but I don't know if it's enough for retirement. (impacts are notable but not that enough to earn the retirement of their names)
- Possible not to be retired (5-29%; impacts are notable but very minimal):
- Mirinae - somehow deadly, but Vietnam has seen worse.
- Rai - same with Mirinae.
- Namtheun - brushed Japan, but damage was minimal.
- Chaba - strong storm but minimal impacts, so no.
- Songda - maybe because of Songda's possible effects as an extratropical cyclone to the Pacific Northwest, but to be honest, I don't think this should be retired for its 2016 incarnation, but for its 2004 version which became the second-costliest Pacific typhoon on record.
- Not retired and should not be retired (0-4%):
- everything else unmentioned.
PAGASA
- Ambo to Enteng - <1% - Sorry but no retirement will happen here. These storms produced little to no effects to the Philippines.
- Ferdie - 30% - It may have missed the more populous part of the Philippines, but no, it's not Enteng 2.0. It has a chance to be retired as it actually devastated the northern province of Batanes in the Philippines; the damage total did not reach PHP 1 billion though, that's why it's uncertain (at least for me) to know whether Ferdie will be retired or not.
- Gener to Julian - 5% - Retirement is unlikely for these storms even if they had some impacts to the Philippines.
- Karen - 75% -
This may be retired, especially if the damage total hits PHP 1 billion in the coming days. UPDATE: Only 25% as the damage totals aren't in, and this storm has been overshadowed by Lawin.Total cost of damages now stands at PHP 3.86 billion, so I guess Karen will go. Not 100% yet though, as it was overshadowed by Lawin and some storms that caused a billion pesos worth of damage did not get retired (i.e. Dante/Kujira '09, Emong/Chan-hom '09) while other storms that did not do anything got retired (i.e. Jose/Halong '14). - Lawin - 80% -
No percentage yet, but with the first pics coming from the northern Philippine provinces, I think this will be easily be retired by PAGASA.This storm proved to be a destructive one. I think this will go, the damages are now reported to be at PHP 3 billion.
For now, that's it. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:59, October 16, 2016 (UTC)
Retired names[]
Meranti, Sarika, Haima and Nock-ten were retired. Lionrock got snubbed. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:55, February 27, 2017 (UTC)
- These are the possible replacement names that were chosen:
- HAIMA
- Mulan
- Fengling
- Tianma
- SARIKA
- Rompe
- Trases
- Kantheay
- MERANTI
- Jati
- Merbau
- Nyatoh
- NOCK-TEN
- Hin Nam Nor
- Xe Bang Fai
- Dok Khoun
- What you guys think about these names that were chosen? Btw, here is the link:[1] Roy25 23:39, March 1, 2018 (UTC)
Haima, Sarika, Meranti, and Nock-ten replaced with Mulan, Trases, Nyatoh, and Him Nam Nor, respectively --Roy25 13:06, March 4, 2018 (UTC)