Forum:2018-19 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

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March

10S.HALEH

Moderate Tropical Storm Haleh

A new storm is born in the SWIO. This storm, named Haleh, is expected to move south-southwest over open water, but could become at least a category 2 (by the JTWC) before dissipating out to sea. Ryan 1000 10:51, March 2, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Haleh

Up to a STS. Ryan 1000 20:01, March 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Haleh

Up to a category 3 by the JTWC. Ryan 1000 12:29, March 4, 2019 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Haleh

Now the record SIXTH intense tropical cyclone of the season! Wow, just wow. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:08, March 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Haleh (2nd time)

Weakening over water...Ryan 1000 18:00, March 6, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Haleh

Dead. Ryan 1000 14:02, March 7, 2019 (UTC)

The JTWC is strangely still issuing advisories on this. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 00:01, March 9, 2019 (UTC)

They shouldn't be...it's practically over freezing South Indian Ocean waters at this point. It's no threat to land either. Ryan 1000 04:08, March 11, 2019 (UTC)

11S.IDAI

Tropical Depression 11

A new depression is here, though this should be short-lived as it moves northwest into Mozambique. Ryan 1000 13:58, March 4, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of 11

Gone. Ryan 1000 14:02, March 7, 2019 (UTC)

TCFA now on JTWC, 11 could be making a comeback. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 00:02, March 9, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11 (2nd time)

TD 11 has now officially redeveloped by the JTWC, a TS in the SSHWS scale. It is now back in the Mozambique Channel. Sandy 156 :) 18:32, March 9, 2019 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Idai

Now a tropical storm, and named Idai. I really don't like how this storm managed to reverse direction back over the Mozambique Channel; the current JTWC forecast not only has this storm recurving back west into Mozambique again but it also has this storm rapidly intensifying to at least a 125 mph category 3 storm before making landfall in Mozambique again as at least a 100 mph storm. This isn't good...if that intensity forecast ends up being conservative, and Idai gets stronger than that, then this could be one of Mozambique's worst tropical cyclones ever, alongside Eline in 2000. Ryan 1000 02:42, March 10, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Idai

Already an 80 mph C1 per the JTWC. It is now forecast to peak (and possibly make landfall) at 140 mph. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:26, March 11, 2019 (UTC)

Idai could possibly intensify all the way to category 5 at the rate this thing is going, it's currently at 105/956 by the JTWC and 90/968 by MFR. Idai could lose some intensity just before making another landfall in Mozambique to the north of Beira, but it will likely still be a very formidable storm when it comes ashore, as at least a 120 mph storm according to the JTWC's latest forecast. The last category 3 storm to hit Mozambique was Jokwe in 2008, but that storm only skimmed along part of the coastline before moving southward into the Mozambique channel. Hopefully they can evacuate everyone in the storm's path. Ryan 1000 04:06, March 11, 2019 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Idai

Idai is now the record-breaking SEVENTH intense tropical cyclone of the season! JTWC has it at 115 mph at the moment, is forecasting a 145 mph peak intensity and a 95 mph landfall. Lets hope they stay at a below major hurricane intensity landfall, or else Mozambique is going to get trashed. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:39, March 11, 2019 (UTC)

Idai is at 105 mph and 960 mbars according to MFR, but TropicalTidbits actually says Idai is at 115 knots, or 130 mph, a category 4 on the SSS, and 937 mbars by the JTWC, and JTWC predicts a 95 knot (110 mph) landfall on Mozambique. Idai could weaken a little from upwelling over its own wake or some unfavorable conditions near shore, but if Idai picks up speed soon on its southwest, then northwest movement, then there's practically nothing that'll stop this from becoming a top-end cat 4 or cat 5 storm. Ryan 1000 12:54, March 11, 2019 (UTC)

As a side note, if you check out the latest advisory from MFR, Idai is forecast to produce a storm surge of up to 6 meters (21 feet) if it is a category 4 at landfall. There is still uncertainty over how strong it'll be and where it'll hit, but the looping track of Idai in the long run is very worrisome, especially for flooding. Ryan 1000 13:25, March 11, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Idai (2nd time)

Idai has been weakening over the past day due to a combination of an ERC and some upwelling over its own wake due to it's slow movement yesterday, but Idai appears to be trying to reform a much larger, more symetrical eye on sattelite imagery by now. If it reforms soon, then it could reintensify to a large and powerful category 3 or 4 storm before making landfall just north of Beira on Friday or Saturday. Hopefully the city has been or is being evacuated. Ryan 1000 15:27, March 12, 2019 (UTC)

Back up to category 3 by the JTWC and forecast to reach category 4 again, and maintain 130 mph winds at landfall, which is now forecast to be a near direct hit on Beira (population of over 533,000 people). This isn't good...Ryan 1000 00:03, March 13, 2019 (UTC)

...Where is everyone? We have an enormous tropical cyclone spiraling towards Mozambique as we speak. Idai's eye has lately become cloud-free and I see nothing stopping this storm from absolutely exploding before landfall in a day or two, easily back up to category 3 or 4 intensity and it could bring a storm surge up to 20 feet or more directly on the coast of Beira. Not to mention the eye of this thing is almost 40-50 miles wide at this point. This thing is starting to take on annular characteristics and will likely bring massive flooding to central Mozambique. It could easily be one of the worst TC's to affect the country on record. Ryan 1000 18:04, March 13, 2019 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Idai (2nd time)

Idai has reclaimed intense tropical cyclone status and is now a 115 mph storm by MFR (and very likely a cat 4 on the SSS, but the JTWC either hasn't updated their intensity on this yet or they're just being ridiculously conservative; look at this and tell me how Idai isn't at least a category 4 by now), and 945 mbars. Likely to become a very strong cat 4 before landfall and may even take a run at cat 5, but Idai may not have enough time for that kind of intensity. In any instance, Idai is giving Eline a run for its money as the most severe TC to affect Mozambique on record. Ryan 1000 21:17, March 13, 2019 (UTC)

JTWC now upgraded it to a Category 3 tropical cyclone. This is going to be bad news for Mozambique. Better hope that it will weaken to a severe tropical storm (at the most). Sandy 156 :) 04:46, March 14, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall in Mozambique

Idai made landfall northeast of Beira as a 105 mph category 2 strength storm, but it's so huge it could deliver a 13 foot storm surge or higher in the Beira area, and a big blowup of convection just appeared offshore which could amplify the flooding problems. Ryan 1000 04:19, March 15, 2019 (UTC)

Oh dear, the precursor has killed more than 56 in Malawi and 66 in Mozambique... this is becoming increasingly catastrophic. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:53, March 15, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Idai

Idai is now an ex-TC, but it's still causing flooding rains as we speak, with over 140 deaths attributed to the cyclone, and at least 34 million in damages, and counting. Ryan 1000 03:43, March 16, 2019 (UTC)

Aftermath of Idai

299 deaths so far from Idai. This is just horrible. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:21, March 18, 2019 (UTC)

BBC now reporting that the Mozambican president fears that 1,000 may have died in Mozambique alone, mostly around Beira, which is described as "90% destroyed". The current official death toll in Mozambique stands at 150. This may as well be Africa's Maria. RIP to the victims. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:28, March 19, 2019 (UTC)

Made a new section to discuss the aftermath of this storm. Parts of Beira are below sea level and the tucked-back position of the city coastline only amplified the storm surge of the giant cyclone in Mozambique's 4th largest city and 2nd largest port, and Dr. Masters made a new blog post that backs up the claim that Idai's death toll could reach or exceed 1,000 people, which would rival or exceed Eline as the deadliest SWIO storm on record. The images from Beira in that post are...chilling, to say the least... Ryan 1000 16:08, March 19, 2019 (UTC)

Idai literally became the worst-case scenario for Malawi, Mozambique & Zimbabwe. News outlets are now saying that Idai may be the worst natural disaster to occur in the Southern Hemisphere. Death toll has now risen to 400+. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:29, March 20, 2019 (UTC)

Death toll update: 733. I'm not sure about this but I think Idai is now the deadliest named storm in the SWIO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:51, March 23, 2019 (UTC)

The death toll has risen to 790 and an estimated damage total of >$1 billion. It’s the costliest cyclone in the SWIO. And also, Anonymous, this storm had caused more deaths in the SWIO than Idai. Sandy 156 :) 02:51, March 29, 2019 (UTC)

Well Sandy, he said "deadliest named storm" so yeah given the current death toll, Idai would surpass Eline as the deadliest named SWIO storm on record (and single-handedly made this year the costliest SWIO season on record), plus if the death toll continues to rise to be over 1000 (including disease in the aftermath of Idai in some areas, albeit indirect deaths), then the 1892 Mauritius Cyclone may not hold the record for long. Ryan 1000 12:49, March 29, 2019 (UTC)

17U.SAVANNAH

Intense Tropical Cyclone Savannah

Savannah has now moved into the SWIO, but still unlikely to affect land. Ryan 1000 10:43, March 18, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropial Cyclone Savannah

Dying over the Indian Ocean. Shouldn't do much from here on out. Ryan 1000 14:20, March 21, 2019 (UTC)

Final warning now issued by JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:12, March 21, 2019 (UTC)

13S.JOANINHA

Invest 93S (Zone of Disturbed Weather 13)

And we have another system. Not expected to do much though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:12, March 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13

Expected to become Joaninha soon, most likely will stay at sea. Now a TS in the SSHWS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:21, March 22, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Joaninha

And the 13th storm of the season is here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:50, March 23, 2019 (UTC)

Expected to become a C3 per JTWC... this season is just wild. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:03, March 23, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Joaninha

Now a TC, and could become an ITC soon, as it's already a category 3 on the Saffiir-Simpson Scale by the JTWC. Ryan 1000 09:48, March 25, 2019 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Joaninha

And the intense tropical cyclone record is extended from 8 to 9. What a season. Based on storms forming in the basin alone (discounting Savannah's and Kenanga's crossovers), this is the 7th major hurricane of the SWIO season, which would still surpass the 2006-07 season for the most ITC's in one season and it even ties the number of majors in the 2005 and 1961 Atlantic hurricane seasons. Ryan 1000 12:12, March 26, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Joaninha

After lasting for a while, Joaninha is gone. Ryan 1000 14:06, March 30, 2019 (UTC)

April

14S.KENNETH

Intense Tropical Cyclone Kenneth

I'm surprised that this has not been added earlier. We have another potentially catastrophic cyclone in the SWIO right now. This one, for me, is going to be worse than Idai when it makes landfall in Mozambique. Keeping the C4 streak alive, Kenneth is forecasted to hit that country on the 25th as a tropical cyclone or higher if it persists. Also, Kenneth is the 10th ITC in the season. Holy crap, what has happened to this season? Sandy 156 :) 01:30, April 25, 2019 (UTC)

I hadn't seen it on WUnderground recently (we were all hyped up on Michael being upgraded to a 5 at his Panhandle landfall in reanalysis) and I haven't checked Tidbits in a while, but hopefully if Kenneth hits northern Mozambique he won't be as powerful or as bad as Idai was last month, due to the region's lower population than Beira. On a completely different side note, me and Rara both predicted in the strangest storm section of this basin's betting pools this year that Kenneth's curse of becoming a category 4 storm in every single one of his East Pacific incarnations would somehow extend into his SWIO incarnation this year, and it looks like it did...but not in a good way...why does this have to be a terrifying threat to land? Hopefully Mozambique makes it out ok... Ryan 1000 02:30, April 25, 2019 (UTC)

15S.LORNA

Moderate Tropical Storm Lorna

Another storm in the SWIO that is going to stay away from land. At the most, Lorna will be a tropical cyclone before dying off. Sandy 156 :) 01:35, April 25, 2019 (UTC)