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This is the forum page for the 2019-20 Australian Region cyclone season.

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Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:January-February
Storm Event Archives:Harold

Other Basin Talkpages (2019): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


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March

92S.INVEST

92S.INVEST

This has recently crossed into this basin and now appears to be monitored on the BOM and TCWC Jakarta - the former's western outlook gives this a "very low" chance while the latter gives this a "small possibility" of development with pressure of 1006 mbars. Chances will likely increase later on I'm guessing. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 17:41, March 3, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Sumatra

Seems to have been de-invested, however the BOM is still monitoring it as it could become a weak tropical low. Highly unlikely to further develop though. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:05, March 5, 2020 (UTC)

Actually I think this died or got re-invested as 94S (see below). ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:07, March 9, 2020 (UTC)

09U.NONAME

AOI: South of Java

Now it's got a "low" chance for Wednesday on the western outlook. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 19:11, March 8, 2020 (UTC)

94S.INVEST

Invested and has "low" chances for Wed. and Thurs. Also medium chances (code orange) on JTWC . ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:07, March 9, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Low north of Pilbara Region/Far Western Australia (TC 21S)

Now a declared tropical low according to BOM and a tropical storm (35 knots/40 mph) according to the JTWC. Expected to weaken after Thursday, though. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 17:52, March 11, 2020 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Low (TC 21S)

Final advisory issued by JTWC and no longer on BOM after it has made landfall on far western Australia. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 23:27, March 13, 2020 (UTC)

10U.GRETEL

AOI: Gulf of Carpentaria or Coral Sea (BOM Eastern Outlook)

Also, BOM's Coral Sea outlook has started monitoring this for potential development next week due to a strengthening monsoon trough over the peninsula. "Very low" chances for the next 3 days but looks bound to increase as we approach next week. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 17:41, March 3, 2020 (UTC)

No changes since then (still very low). ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 19:10, March 8, 2020 (UTC)

Now moderate chances for Thursday on the Coral Sea (eastern) outlook but I think this is the same system as the one below (95/96P) due to model runs taking it into the Coral Sea. Assuming it is, I will only post in the below section from here on out. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:07, March 9, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: Northern Gulf of Carpentaria (BOM Northern Outlook)

On BOM's northern outlook due to the monsoon trough developing at the northern coast of Top End. Has a "low" chance for Wednesday. Might possibly be associated with the above AOI but I'm not sure.~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 19:10, March 8, 2020 (UTC)

95/96P.INVEST

Has had two designations apparently, but the latter 96P designation seems to be the current official designation because it's being used on JTWC where it's currently code yellow. Also has "low" chances on BOM's northern outlook and "moderate" chances on the Coral Sea outlook. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:07, March 9, 2020 (UTC)

Very low on the Northern outlook but up to High on the Coral Sea outlook for Friday (13 March). -- JavaHurricane 07:09, March 10, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Low over Cape York (96P.INVEST)

Now a tropical low according to BOM (1006 mbars) and has a TCFA issued by JTWC. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 17:52, March 11, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Low 10U

Now designated as 10U in the Coral Sea per the BOM while the FMS gives this a "high" chance to be a TC once it crosses into that basin from Sunday to Monday. Current windspeed and pressure per the BOM: 25 knots (30 mph) and 992 mbars. TCWC Wellington and JTWC also gives this "high" chances, with the latter calling it a monsoon depression. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 23:26, March 13, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Gretel

It has now moved into the SPac basin and became Gretel, refer to that basin's forum for future comments. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:36, March 16, 2020 (UTC)

11U.NONAME

98P.INVEST

Another new invest on Tidbits located near Papua New Guinea.Β Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 02:38, March 27, 2020 (UTC)

Expected to move into the northern region where the BOM mentions the possible formation of a tropical low from a strengthening trough. We may see "Harold" from this (kinda weird this is the next name considering we just had "Herold" in the SWIO). ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 04:15, March 27, 2020 (UTC)

Now has a "low" chance for Tuesday per BOM. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:34, March 28, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Low over Torres Strait (98P.INVEST)

Now has a "moderate" chance for Friday and is code yellow on JTWC, currently just south of Port Moresby and might be in their area of responsibility (if it somehow developed there it would be the first since 2007). Might merge with the invest to its east (90P) to create a more significant system in the SPac. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:35, March 31, 2020 (UTC)

As confirmed by BOM, it's in the Papua New Guinea area of responsibility, but won't develop further before it moves inland. Still code yellow per JTWC. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:46, April 2, 2020 (UTC)

And it's dead. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:55, April 5, 2020 (UTC)

99S.INVEST

AOI: Near 10S 090E

Mentioned on the western outlook, a weak low may develop here right on the boundary with the SWIO. Not expected to significantly develop though. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 04:15, March 27, 2020 (UTC)

No longer explicitly mentioned, although they now state that due to a trough west of 90E, weak tropical lows might be possible. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:36, March 28, 2020 (UTC)

99S.INVEST

This (I think?) has appeared on Tropical Tidbits as invest 99S. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:20, March 29, 2020 (UTC)

Yep, but it's not expected to develop further. BOM still gives this only a "very low" chance. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:35, March 31, 2020 (UTC)
No longer up on Tidbits. However still mentioned on BOM's western outlook with no chance of developing ("very low"). ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:46, April 2, 2020 (UTC)
It's been dead for the past couple days. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:56, April 5, 2020 (UTC)

April

25P.HAROLD

See the archive on Harold.

AOI: Weak Low near Christmas Island

A potential weak low could develop here over the weekend according to BOM's western outlook, but chances of development seem negligible for now. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:46, April 2, 2020 (UTC)

It has formed near 10S 105E, but again, development is highly unlikely. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 20:06, April 3, 2020 (UTC)
Not mentioned on the outlook anymore. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:43, April 5, 2020 (UTC)

24S.IRONDRO

AOI: Irondro's potential entrance into this basin

Irondro in the SWIO has a "low" chance of entering this basin on Monday, but will likely significantly weaken by then. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 20:06, April 3, 2020 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Depression Irondro

Now entering this basin, but is already post-tropical and will continue racing southeastward. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:47, April 6, 2020 (UTC)

26S.JERUTO

AOI: North of 10S, west of 100E

Another one on BOM's western outlook but I don't see this becoming much. "Very Low" chances, most likely associated with a system on MFR's outlook that has a "low" chance (see the adjacent SWIO forum).~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:38, April 10, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Low WNW of Cocos Islands

Now a weak TL per BOM and has a "low" chance of development for Monday. Also still code yellow ("low" chance) on MFR's SWIO outlook assuming it's the same system.~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:36, April 11, 2020 (UTC)

Wow that was fast.Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 09:23, April 11, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Low WNW of Cocos Islands (93S.INVEST)

Now an invest.Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 01:28, April 12, 2020 (UTC)

No longer has much of a chance of development in the Aus region, but expected to become more significant once it enters the SWIO. Chances for it becoming a tropical cyclone in the Australian region are now "very low" per BOM, but it's up to "moderate" per MFR for development in the SWIO. JTWC gives it code yellow (low chance). ~ Steve ✝️ HappyEaster!🐰 00:06, April 13, 2020 (UTC)

It is 35mph so there is a chance to get another Australian region named storm.Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:35, April 14, 2020 (UTC)

Nope, it was named in the SWIO and ended up being a failicia. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 22:11, April 15, 2020 (UTC)

95S.INVEST

AOI: Potential Tropical Low south of Bali

The BOM is watching another area of potential development in the western region. If a tropical low forms here, the risk of a tropical cyclone increases from Sunday. Chances are "very low" through Saturday, but likely to increase for the days afterward. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 22:11, April 15, 2020 (UTC)

95S.INVEST

Invest'd, but only has a "low" chance of development per both the BOM and JTWC. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 16:54, April 18, 2020 (UTC)

No longer on JTWC, still mentioned on BOM but is "very low". Looks like the tropics are becoming completely dead again, as expected for this time of year when the SHem starts shutting down and the NHem has yet to start up. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:36, April 20, 2020 (UTC)

And it's dead, the tropics are now completely silent worldwide. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:34, April 23, 2020 (UTC)

May

96S.NONAME

96S.INVEST

New late-season invest on Tidbits currently located in the TCWC Jakarta AOR with models taking it southward and showing hints of possible intensification. Not on any other outlook as of yet, although the MFR mentions the possibility of cyclogenesis next week east of 90E. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 22:45, May 1, 2020 (UTC)


Now up to 20 knots per tidbitsΚ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:01, May 2, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Low south of Sumatra (96S.INVEST)

The BOM has declared this to be a tropical low. 96S now has a low chance of development (code yellow) per the JTWC, but neither the BOM nor TCWC Jakarta are giving this low any higher than a "very low" or "small" possibility of development. To be honest, I do not expect much further development out of this low. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 00:30, May 4, 2020 (UTC)


This system now has highΒ chance of development (code red) now per JTWC. TCFA issued.Β Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 06:15, May 4, 2020 (UTC)


TCFA cancelled. This system now have medium chance of development.Β Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 01:00, May 6, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 96S

TCWC Jakarta actually designated this TD 96S, currently has a medium probability per that agency and a forecast track that actually seems to take this to C1 (Aus scale) intensity (despite this I doubt development into TC Mangga), code orange on JTWC, and still "very low" per BOM. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 06:16, May 6, 2020 (UTC)

Down to code yellow on JTWC.Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 09:14, May 7, 2020 (UTC)

Dead.Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 02:31, May 9, 2020 (UTC)

It's actually still on Tidbits, BOM, and the TCWC Jakarta outlooks, with BOM still calling it a tropical low, although any chances of development have pretty much diminished. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 17:46, May 9, 2020 (UTC)

Remnants of TD 96S

Now it's completely dead. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 06:23, May 10, 2020 (UTC)

97S.INVEST

Another invest has appeared, currently located near the same region that the last TD existed in. There isn't an agency that's really monitoring it right now and I don't expect much development out of this. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 21:59, May 11, 2020 (UTC)

JTWC issued code yellow for this system.Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 06:11, May 12, 2020 (UTC)


Gone now.Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 10:30, May 13, 2020 (UTC)

17U.MANGGA

98S.INVEST

It appears that the Australian region is not quite done yet. According to the JTWC, a new invest, 98S, has appeared to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. The system is in an environment of very favorable SSTs (of 30 to 31 degrees Celsius) and good poleward outflow. Also, it appears that some models are forecasting development. However, high shear will probably prevent anything significant from forming. Moreover, the BoM has yet to mention this system on their TWO. Chances of formation are currently low for the next 24 hours according to the JTWC, with an intensity of 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute sustained)/1007 mbar (hPa). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:59, May 17, 2020 (UTC)

Um, this could actually become Mangga. TCWC Jakarta is monitoring it now, and with a pressure of 1005 mbar, gives it a large possibility of development on Thursday. It's quite rare AFAIK for storms to form there this late in the season (or post-season). Still code yellow on JTWC. Models take this towards Australia, with GFS ensembles on Tidbits taking the system up to around 984 mbar. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 15:55, May 18, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Low northwest of Cocos Islands (TC 27S)

Tropical low declared by the BOM, now 1004 mbar with a "low" chance of development per that agency. Still low on JTWC, large possibility on TCWC Jakarta. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 06:17, May 19, 2020 (UTC)

Now has a medium chance of forming according to JTWC. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 19:13, May 19, 2020 (UTC)
Now code red on JTWC too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 06:18, May 20, 2020 (UTC)

Both the GFS and CMC ensembles on Tidbits make this a category 1-2 cyclone, and move it rapidly to the southeast onto Australia's west coast in only 4 days. It looks like Imogen(or Mangga)-to-be could be one of only a small handful of off-season landfalling storms in the Australian region, alongside storms like Herbie of 1988 (which formed in the same area at about this same time of year, and took a similar track that this storm is expected to). Ryan1000 20:22, May 20, 2020 (UTC)

Now a TC per JTWC.Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 10:20, May 21, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Mangga

And TCWC Jakarta follows suit. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:16, May 21, 2020 (UTC)

A TCWC Jakarta storm in the post-season...wow, what are the chances of this happening? Currently 35 knots (40 mph)/996 mbar, JTWC forecasts intensification to 50 knots (60 mph) but BOM only forecasts slight intensification to 45 knots (50 mph). Truly incredible to see something here this late in the season. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 00:47, May 22, 2020 (UTC)
This is quite the surprise! I was not expecting another storm in the Australian region, let alone one in TCWC Jakarta's area of responsibility! However, Mangga only has another couple of days to take advantage of its favorable environment before shear increases. The BoM has lowered the storm's pressure to 995 mbar (hPa), and some minor impacts are expected in the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. On a side note, RSMC La RΓ©union also appears to be acknowledging Mangga's presence. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:37, May 22, 2020 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Mangga

Mangga has felt the effects of increasing shear. The BoM has declassified the system as tropical, and the agency expects it to become baroclinic over the next couple of days. In addition, the JTWC has noted that Mangga's appearance is becoming more subtropical. According to the latter, the storm still has winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained), gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). In addition, the JTWC forecasts Mangga to intensify to 40 knots (45 mph) (1-minute sustained) gusting to 50 knots (60 mph) before becoming extratropical (and possibly reach mainland Australia). What an interesting system this has been! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:16, May 23, 2020 (UTC)

With the same intensity as before, Mangga has become extratropical per the JTWC. They expect the cyclone to increase in size and slightly intensify as it nears Australia. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:45, May 23, 2020 (UTC)
The remnants of this cyclone actually merged with a cold front to cause a once-in-a-decade storm for western Australia, causing wind gusts of up to 82 mph on Cape Leeuwin and widespread damage. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:54, May 26, 2020 (UTC)
I read about Mangga's impact in Australia. This storm definitely caused some notable impacts. However, I am not sure if we will see Mangga's retirement (P.S. How does this process work for TCWC Jakarta names?) AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:40, May 27, 2020 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance

Steve's Retirement Predictions, Grading, and other stuff

  • The "Main" tab: Lists retirement chances (plus a summary) and grades for all storms.
  • The "To sum it up..." tab: Provides a summary of all the storm's grading and retirement chances for those who don't want to read through all the descriptions on the main tab.
  • The "Summary of Colors & Explanations" tab: All the information you need about the colors and styles used, and explanations for many things to help answer any questions or solve any confusion you might have.
  • The "Replacement Names" tab: Every storm with at least a 50% chance of retirement gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that may be chosen. Only done in certain basins where replacement names are not too complicated to figure out, such as the Atlantic, EPac, and the Southern Hemisphere.
  • The "Future Outlook" tab: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Tropical lows are not included, unless JTWC also monitored it as a tropical depression.

  • Blake:
    • Retirement chance: 5% - Only slight impacts, not enough for it to be retired at all.
    • Grading: F - Land interaction kept this weak.
  • Claudia:
    • Retirement chance: 0.5% - Top End received unusual amounts of rainfall, but there appears to have been little negative effects.
    • Grading: C+ - Became a relatively strong C3 (Aus scale).
  • Damien:
    • Retirement chance: 12% - Brought heavy rainfall and impacts to the area surrounding Karratha but due to the sparsely populated nature of the region it only caused moderate damage which shouldn't really be enough for retirement.
    • Grading: B- - A moderately strong storm, currently the season's strongest in terms of pressure. Original predictions for C4 on the Aus scale didn't materialize but that doesn't matter because it was approaching land.
  • (For Uesi, which was briefly in this basin, see my SPac predictions for Uesi's retirement chance and grade.)
  • Esther:
    • Retirement chance: 2% - Not enough impacts for retirement AFAIK but caused quite a bit of rain and some flooding in northern Australia.
    • Grading: F - Basically a fail but it did show some effort in attempting to reorganize over land due to the brown ocean effect.
  • Ferdinand:
    • Retirement chance: 0% - Just a fishspinner that stayed out to sea, affecting nobody.
    • Grading: B- - Became the season's strongest so far in terms of wind speed although Damien still beats its pressure.
  • Gretel:
    • Retirement chance: 0.1% - Some impacts around Cape York and later on New Caledonia but not enough for retiring.
    • Grading: D- - Meh, nothing really fascinating intensity-wise though it did reach C2 (Aus. scale) strength in the SPac.
  • HAROLD:
    • RETIREMENT CHANCE: 100% - RETIREMENT IS GUARANTEED, DUE TO IT BEING ONE OF THE WORST STORMS TO EVER STRIKE VANUATU IN HISTORY AND PLUS FURTHER IMPACTS TO FIJI AND TONGA. BYE BYE.
    • GRADING: A+ - A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE THAT REACHED C5 ON THE SSHWS AND LOOKED AMAZING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT IMPACTS TO VANUATU, FIJI, AND TONGA PREVENT IT FROM RECEIVING AN S-RANK.
  • Mangga:
    • Retirement chance: 1% - Contributed to a once-in-a-decade storm for Western Australia when it merged with a cold front. But chances of retirement still seem negligible.
    • Grading: F - A very weak TS, but gets some credit for forming in the TCWC Jakarta AOR in the post-season.

Retirement:

  • Retired, no question: Harold
  • Almost Certainly Retired:
  • Extremely Likely Retired:
  • Very Likely Retired:
  • Likely Retired:
  • Somewhat Likely:
  • Tossup:
  • Possible:
  • Slight Chance:
  • Unlikely:
  • Highly Unlikely: Damien
  • Almost Certainly Staying: Blake, Claudia, Esther, Gretel, Mangga
  • Staying, no question: Ferdinand

Grading:

  • The Hall of Fame (S or higher):
  • Really Amazing Performers (A- to A+):
  • Good Performers (B- to B+): Damien, Ferdinand
  • Average Performers (C- to C+): Claudia
  • "Meh" Performers (D- to D+): Gretel
  • Failures (E and F): Blake, Esther, Mangga
  • Epic Failures (F- and Z):
  • The Hall of Shame (πŸ€¦πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ):

Intensity colors (SSHWS, 1-min winds): TD/SD (≀35 mph, ≀30 knots), Weak TS/SS (40-50 mph, 35-45 knots), Strong TS/SS (60-70 mph, 50-60 knots), C1 (75-90 mph, 65-80 knots), C2 (100-110 mph, 85-95 knots), C3 (115-125 mph, 100-110 knots), C4 (130-155 mph, 115-135 knots), C5 (160-180 mph, 140-155 knots), BEAST MODE (185+ mph, 160+ knots)

  • Uses the SSHWS color coding found on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones.
  • There's a few differences though.
    • A color for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) is added so they would not be lumped in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. This color is used in all basins even those that (in official scales) do not use this color, such as the Atlantic and EPac.
    • A completely new color is added for "BEAST MODE" cyclones that reach or exceed the incredible intensity of 185 mph (160 knots). Because I feel that the official C5 color is not strong enough to represent these storms, this color is introduced for the most powerful of the powerful storms. They might be Category 6s if the category was introduced someday.
  • This same intensity scale is used in all basins, regardless of what their official scale is. 1-min winds outside of the NHC-monitored basins come from the JTWC.
  • TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA).

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A; 0.000...1-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999...%; 100%; TBA (active storms only)

  • Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color.
    • The top limit for each range is actually a bit higher than shown above (except for 99.999...%). For example, the true top limit to the 1-4% range is 4.999...%. The ranges depicted end at the whole number below to save space and avoid confusion (such as "5%" being part of two ranges at the same time if the previous range is not rounded down).
    • "50%" is the only standalone percentage outside of a range (except for 0% and 100%). This percentage means that the chances are a coin toss, there is an equal chance of it either being or not being retired. The lowest limit to the 51-54% range is actually 50.000...1%, but it is rounded to the whole number above to also save space and avoid any confusion.
  • "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired.
    • "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade.
  • "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active.
    • If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear.
  • Usually, "0%" and "100%" are approximate percentages, meaning the chances of the opposite outcome happening is so low that I won't even consider using any percentage just above the absolute so that I can save space. If the percentage is depicted as "0%", the actual percentage might be more like 0.000...millions of zeros...0.1%, or if "100%", would be more like 99.999...millions of nines...9%. If a storm with a "0%" percentage is retired, it would be like winning the lottery or even something more unlikely.
    • The only situation where the percentages are actually absolute is in basins with agencies that use retirement requirements, such as in the Philippine region (PAGASA). Their requirement of at least β‚±1 billion in damages or 300 deaths for a storm ensures that any storm that meets it will be retired, and those that do not meet it are not retired for sure. No percentage between 0% and 100% is used for such a basin.
  • Tropical cyclones and their descriptions have special formatting depending on retirement chance.
    • For 0 to 24%, only the name, retirement percentage, and grade is bolded; the rest of the entry is plain-text.
    • For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded even the descriptions.
    • For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is bolded and italicized.
    • For 75% to 99.999...%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined.
    • Lastly, for storms with a 100% chance of retirement, the whole entry is BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Grading colors: SSS, SS, S, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, πŸ€¦πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ, TBA (active storms only)

  • Ranks a storm's performance.
  • Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, but if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance (extremely destructive/deadly), a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, nothing above "A+" will be received).
  • It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. The color scheme was also made to make sense.
    • "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and used only for non-destructive storms. They performed exceptionally well in terms of intensity, longevity, how unusual it is, topping intensity forecasts, persisting through unfavorable conditions, and maybe broke or helped to break records. The "S" grades go from bronze, to silver, and lastly to gold for the top grade of them all.
      • "S" by itself is bronze, and is the lowest ranking of the "perfection" grades used for non-destructive storms. "S" receiving storms, while really amazing, are still not amazing enough for the highest ranking honors.
      • The "SS" honor, which is silver, is the second highest of all and perhaps the highest that can ever be given out for storms that didn't break records in an absolutely unusual way. Examples of exceptional storms that can get up to here include 185+ mph fishspinners, an off-season (especially around Jan-Apr) Atlantic hurricane, or a powerful system lasting and persisting for as long as the longest-lived storms ever (John '94, San Ciriaco, Ginger, Inga, Kyle '02, Nadine '12). Certain other fighters such as Genevieve '14 or Otis '17 can also make it up to here.
      • The most superlative grade of all is...*drumroll*..."SSS"! This grade is so rare that it might only be given out once or twice a decade or even less often. It's also colored gold. They break records in an absolutely exceptional way, for example a major hurricane in the Atlantic in March, a Patricia-intensity storm (if not devastating), a storm lasting more than a month, and storms that fight through and defy forecasts so much that they might put even Genevieve '14 to shame. They truly are the storms that will forever live at the top ranks of the Hall of Fame.
    • The rest of the grades are colored based on the rainbow, from a violet/indigo "A+" to a blue "A", cyan "B", green "C", yellow "D", and red "F". Due to red being the color for danger, it's best to be used for failing grades, while green and above are colors used for things being fine (no danger at all). Yellow and orange show caution (uh oh!) and are used for grades really close to failing. Due to blue and especially violet/indigo being the furthest away from the danger colors, it's best used for the highest grades before the "S" grades which are instead colored by precious metals.
    • You can easily figure out what the grades A+ to F mean from the educational grading system. An explanation is not really needed. The only addition within this range is the grade "E", used to fill the gap between the "D" grades and the "F" failing grade. Grade "E" is usually given to moderate tropical storms that were quite pathetic but not enough to actually be failures.
    • And now, for the worst of the worst: below the letter "F", there are a few grades used to describe really pathetic failures.
      • "F-" means the storm failed so much that it deserves less than the basic "F", but still did something that would save it from lower grades. Examples: pre or post-season formation, unusual location, peaking beyond 40 mph, etc.
      • The grade "Z" comes from the fact that if you continue down the same pattern as the educational grading scale, you would continue going down the alphabet the bigger the fail is. While "A" can be used for perfection (but still less than "S"), "B" is less perfect, "C" is average, "D" is below average, "E" in my scale is a gap-filler for almost failing, and "F" is failing. The scale could continue down to "G", "H", etc. if it's an even bigger failure, all the way down to "Z" for the worst possible failures of all. Although "S" is closer to "Z" when going down the alphabet, that letter is a notable exception, and instead "T" would denote the next bigger failure below "R". To denote the worst failures of all, I am skipping straight down to the last letter, "Z", because all the in-between letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. Since "Z" is the last letter, it would be the absolute polar opposite of "A", the first letter and top grade, and thus the polar opposite of good/perfect. That letter is used for some of the worst failures (although there is an even worse grade, more on that shortly). Storms that receive this grade are short-lasting TDs, name-stealers peaking at 40 mph and lasting less than 2 days in total, and any storms that peak beyond 40 mph have to have been lasting a day or less in total or peaking way below the initial expectations (like a storm expected to become a hurricane peaks at 45 mph).
      • The absolute worst grade: These storms are so pathetic that they don't deserve even a letter. "Z" might still sound too good for them. I introduce... the "πŸ€¦πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ" grade. Yes, it's an actual facepalm. This emoji is styled based on my gender and skin color, so if you were to borrow it and have different characteristics, I'd recommend finding a similar facepalm emoji with your own gender/skin color. This grade is rare and should stay that way. Examples of the absolutely worst failures that would actually receive this grade include: a 6-12 hour pop-up TD, a name-stealer that peaks at 40 mph and lasts a day or less in total from formation to dissipation, or any named storm that was downgraded in post-analysis to a TD or even a low (meaning they actually never deserved a name). Even some very bad TS or TD failures that pop up from time to time might not be bad enough for this grade, because they CANNOT peak beyond 40 mph nor last longer than a day.

Retirement chance ranges for:

  • "Retired, no question": 100%
  • "Almost Certainly Retired": 90-99.999...%
  • "Extremely Likely Retired": 80-89%
  • "Very Likely Retired": 70-79%
  • "Likely Retired": 60-69%
  • "Somewhat Likely": 51-59%
  • "Tossup": 50%
  • "Possible": 40-49%
  • "Slight Chance": 30-39%
  • "Unlikely": 20-29%
  • "Highly Unlikely": 10-19%
  • "Almost Certainly Staying": 0.000...1%-9%
  • "Staying, no question": 0%

All storms that have (or projected to have) a 50% retirement likelihood or higher are listed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.


Harold (Retired, no question):

  1. Henry
  2. Harrison
  3. Hunter
  4. Hudson
  5. Hayden
  6. Hugo
  7. Harley
  8. Hank
  9. Henley
  10. Howard

Predicted final replacements to be announced after the end of the season: Hudson (replacing Harold)

Current outlook:

BOM:

  • I expect that this season will end at or around Harold.
  • Imogen or beyond is looking unlikely.
  • It's likely we will see 1 system this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. Harold has a certain chance, Damien is highly unlikely to be retired and all other names have very little, if any, chance.
  • Chances that Imogen will be used: 5% - Extremely unlikely to form from here on out.
  • Chances that Joshua or anything beyond will be used: 0% - Absolutely not

TCWC Jakarta:

  • Seroja or beyond is looking unlikely.
  • It's unlikely that any names will be retired.
  • Chances that Seroja will be used: 0.5% - This is insanely unlikely to form
  • Chances that Teratai or anything beyond will be used: 0% - Absolutely not

TCWC Port Moresby:

  • It is unlikely that any tropical cyclone will form in this region.
  • Chances that any name at all will be used: 0.01% - IT would be a miracle.

The original outlook from November 30 for comparison:

BOM:

  • I expect that this season will end at or around Imogen.
  • It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Gretel or Harold, or go further to Joshua or Kimi.
  • Lucas or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Ferdinand or before is also unlikely.
  • It's likely we will see 1-2 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. The first devastating system may occur by the end of February or March, and a potential second system could occur by the end of the season. Seeing three or more retirees this season is possible, but I doubt it.
  • Chances that Blake will be used: 100% - Absolutely has to form this season. Likely to be seen by the end of 2019, hopefully.
  • Chances that Claudia will be used: 100% - Also virtually certain to form. Might be seen in January.
  • Chances that Damien will be used: 99.9% - The season shouldn't be so inactive that this fails to form. I expect to see this in February.
  • Chances that Esther will be used: 98% - Most likely, by the end of February, Esther will come.
  • Chances that Ferdinand will be used: 89% - Coming in March imo unless this season's doomed for inactivity.
  • Chances that Gretel will be used: 77% - May be an end-of-March system or something.
  • Chances that Harold will be used: 63% - Possibly might end here if the season is truly below-average, and might form by mid-April. The chances are in favor of a slightly below-average season this year. *currently up to here*
  • Chances that Imogen will be used: 52% - The chances of this is just above a coin flip. We've got a below to near-average season on our hands. Probably by the end of April this might form.
  • Chances that Joshua will be used: 40% - It's very possible that conditions just MIGHT support this much activity. Might be a post-season system imo.
  • Chances that Kimi will be used: 29% - It's getting less likely, but there's still that SLIGHT chance.
  • Chances that Lucas will be used: 18% - Conditions should not be favorable for this much activity.
  • Chances that Marian will be used: 11% - It's highly doubtful.
  • Chances that Niran will be used: 5% - Truly a loser's proposition that the season gets this far. Should not happen most likely.
  • Chances that Odette will be used: 0.8% - If this somehow actually happened I would scream.
  • Chances that Paddy will be used: 0.01% - Nopety nopety nope
  • Chances that Ruby or anything beyond will be used: 0% - Absolutely not

TCWC Jakarta:

  • It is possible for Mangga to form.
  • A small chance also exists for the formation of Seroja, but Teratai or beyond is looking unlikely.
  • It's unlikely that any names in this region will be retired.
  • Chances that Mangga will be used: 48% - Formation here is supposed to be uncommon. But considering what happened in the past couple seasons, the chances of seeing "Mangga" are higher than usual. *currently up to here*
  • Chances that Seroja will be used: 22% - Possible, but quite doubtful.
  • Chances that Teratai will be used: 5% - Nah, shouldn't get down to here.
  • Chances that Anggrek will be used: 0.01% - Almost impossible for there to be four TCWC Jakarta systems in one season.
  • Chances that Bakung or anything beyond will be used: 0% - Absolutely not

TCWC Port Moresby:

  • It is unlikely that any tropical cyclone will form in this region.
  • Chances that any name at all will be used: 10% - It's been 12 years since anything formed here, and I'm not placing any bets on seeing a named storm in this region during the season.

~ Steve ☘ HappySt. Patrick's Day!🌈 23:01, March 17, 2020 (UTC) (last updated 05:58, May 26, 2020 (UTC))

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions

Might as well make a list here, since there's not much else on the wiki for now:

  • Blake - 5% - Caused some minor flooding over northwestern Australia, but shouldn't be enough for retirement.
  • Claudia - 1% - Caused some rain in the northern territory around Darwin early in its lifetime, but later on it stayed at sea.
  • Damien - 15% - Caused some damage in Western Australia, being the strongest landfall there since 2013's Christine, but Christine didn't go, so Damien shouldn't either.
  • Esther - 5% - Similar to Blake, but farther northeast.
  • Ferdinand - 0% - Reamined well offshore of Australia, and caused no impacts due to his small size.
  • Gretel - 0% - Reamined well off of Australia, and didn't cause notable impacts to New Caledonia in the South Pacific either.
  • Harold - 100% - As the second-worst storm on record to strike Vanuatu after Pam in 2015, with very severe damage and over 30 deaths, Harold will, without question, be retired after this year.

And there's mine. Ryan1000 14:16, April 19, 2020 (UTC)

Replacement names

Since Harold is a lock for retirement due to its impacts in Vanuatu and elsewhere in the South Pacific, what do you think will replace him? Here are some suggestions:

  • Hayden
  • Hudson
  • Hayes
  • Hugo
  • Henry
  • Henrik
  • Harrison
  • Hector
  • Hassan
  • Howard
  • Hank
  • Hunter

All of these are possible options for replacing Harold. Names that probably won't or can't be used include:

  1. Herman (already on the AUS lists)
  2. Hale and Hart (already on the SPac lists)
  3. Harry (already retired after the 1989 storm), and
  4. Harvey (already retired after the 2005 storm)

My personal pick would be Henry or Hugo, but any of the above names, including Hunter, Harrison, Hudson, Howard, and Hank are also good. Ryan1000 14:16, April 19, 2020 (UTC)

I listed my suggestions in the "replacement names" tab of my retirement predictions. I'd also recommend the names "Harley" and "Henley" as possible replacement candidates. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:55, April 23, 2020 (UTC)
Of the names already provided, I recommend Hugo or Howard. In addition, I would suggest Hiroshi as another option. And Ryan, how do you know a name can not simultaneously be on the AUS and SPAC naming lists? AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:07, May 17, 2020 (UTC)

Well, I guess it's not impossible for a name couldn't be on both lists at the same time, but I believe it would be rather unlikely in this case at least since a storm like Harold could cause notable damage in the other basin and be confusing with a similar-named storm or already retired name on the other naming list. It would be confusing if Harold was replaced by Harry and a future storm named Harry causes notable impacts in the SPac like Harold did, when the 1989 SPac storm was already retired for its impacts there as it is. But, we had Tina and Ian chopped from both lists so I guess it's not impossible, so I changed it to "probably won't be" above. Ryan1000 02:35, May 19, 2020 (UTC)

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