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This is the forum page for the 2019-20 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season.

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Monthly Archives:Pre-season - December, January-February
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Other Basin Talkpages (2019): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


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March

22S.HEROLD

AOI: Northwest of Mascarenes

Popped up on MFR's outlook, currently has a "low" chance from Friday. ~ β˜ƒ Steve ❄ Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:34, February 25, 2020 (UTC)

Now covers a large area from northern Madagascar to the Mascarenes and up towards AgalΓ©ga, still low chance.~ β˜ƒ Steve ❄ Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 17:07, February 27, 2020 (UTC)

91S.INVEST

Invested and still code yellow on MFR but the area is now smaller, encompassing an area east of northern Madagascar and northwest of the Mascarenes. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 17:15, March 1, 2020 (UTC)

Now on JTWC with code yellow as well. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 19:04, March 2, 2020 (UTC)

No longer on JTWC, but still being monitored by the MFR with a low chance from Monday. They also say that chances increase to moderate beyond the 5-day window. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:07, March 5, 2020 (UTC)

Now coded orange on the MFR but still nothing on JTWC's website.~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 19:13, March 8, 2020 (UTC)

Down to code yellow on MFR's site, I don't think this will become anything anymore. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 18:01, March 11, 2020 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Herold

Nevermind that previous comment (lol) because it has rapidly organized over the past couple days and is now a named tropical storm, packing winds of 35 knots (40 mph) and a pressure of 996 mbars. Surprisingly no one bothered to post about its disturbance/depression stage as 10S yesterday... this wiki is just so dead. Currently even stronger per JTWC, they say that it's 45 knots (50 mph). Forecasts take this to become pretty significant in the next few days, and by the 16th, we may be talking about an Intense TC. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 23:35, March 13, 2020 (UTC)

Well, this year was probably going to slow down somewhat after the record-active 2018-19 season, like how the 2019 Pacific Hurricane season had a significantly lower ACE than the record-active 2018 season. We might still get a few more storms before the season closes out though. Hopefully Herold won't be too significant, as it's expected to turn southeast away from Madagascar and north of Mauritius and Reunion. Ryan1000 07:04, March 14, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Herold

You should post a little more often Ryan (and other users) to energize the SHem forums. :P I often don't like coming on every single day anymore due to the deadness of the wiki and plus I hoped that the current coronavirus pandemic and all the closures and cancellations would make you guys a bit less busy like me (which means I have more time for this wiki for the time being). Anyways it has intensified to a TC, now 70 knots (80 mph) and 970 mbars per the MFR while JTWC currently has it at 80 knots (90 mph). And after stalling just east of northern Madagascar over the past few days it is now finally starting to move away. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 05:47, March 16, 2020 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Herold

Peaked as an ITC briefly overnight north of Mauritius, reaching 95 knots (110 mph)/957 mbars per the MFR. After quite a long wait we've also seen the first C3+ (major) tropical cyclone worldwide this year. ~ Steve ☘ HappySt. Patrick's Day!🌈 19:51, March 17, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Herold (2nd time)

However, it's back down to a TC and rapidly weakening according to the MFR, currently 65 knots (75 mph)/975 mbars. But it's still 100 knots (115 mph) per the JTWC. ~ Steve ☘ HappySt. Patrick's Day!🌈 19:51, March 17, 2020 (UTC)

My cousins have been on leave from work due to the coronavirus since they work in a local restaurant (all of which in my state were ordered to close by our governor yesterday due to health concerns), though I'm still in work. Anyhow, Herold won't last much longer, as its increasing southeastward forward speed will bring it over waters too cold to support it. Ryan1000 03:39, March 18, 2020 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Herold

Rapidly weakening and undergoing subtropical or extratropical transition. -- JavaHurricane 04:55, March 19, 2020 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Herold

It's now extratropical, leaving the tropics completely dead. Yeah Ryan, the virus has completely changed my life and now I'm basically isolated (quarantined) at home due to not having much to do anymore. In fact, the governor of my state (California) has just issued a "stay at home" order for the whole state, which means all residents are advised to stay at home and only the most essential services continue to run. I'm hoping the world recovers from this unprecedented crisis sooner rather than later and I'm really afraid I might eventually catch it and become sick myself. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:34, March 20, 2020 (UTC)

92S.INVEST

New invest currently located near the northeast corner of the basin very close to the Aus boundary, model forecasts take this deeper into the Aus basin in coming days but for now since it's currently in the SWIO basin I'll post it here.~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 19:04, March 2, 2020 (UTC)

Now in the Aus basin, see that forum page for further comments. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 17:43, March 3, 2020 (UTC)

93S.INVEST

Another new invest but not being monitored by any other agency as of yet. This is to the south of Mauritius. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 17:47, March 4, 2020 (UTC)

Dead, what a waste of an invest tbh. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:06, March 5, 2020 (UTC)

99S.INVEST

This briefly appeared in the extreme eastern part of the basin, but has since moved into the Aus region, where chances of development are negligible. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:43, March 31, 2020 (UTC)

April

24S.IRONDRO

91S.INVEST

Another system of interest has popped up out in the middle of the ocean... might become "Irondro". Currently has a "moderate" chance on MFR's outlook and code yellow on JTWC. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:43, March 31, 2020 (UTC)

Both this and 90P in the South Pacific are forecast to become somewhat strong storms with pressures in the 970-960 mbar range in about 5 days according to the initial GFS ensembles on Tidbits. Although this storm isn't going to be affecting land (since it'll move southeast and out to sea), the South Pacific storm could deliver impacts to Vanuatu. Ryan1000 14:14, March 31, 2020 (UTC)
Up to code orange on JTWC and now has a high risk per MFR. I believe both this and 90P could become quite significant. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 21:50, March 31, 2020 (UTC)

Zone of Disturbed Weather 11

Declared a ZODW by the MFR, currently 30 mph (25 knots)/1002 mbar per them. Their forecast takes it up to 80 knots (90 mph). Now code red (TCFA issued) per JTWC. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:49, April 2, 2020 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Irondro

Irondro has formed.Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:39, April 2, 2020 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Irondro

Irondro is stronger with winds of 60mph and intensifyΒ very fast,Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:39, April 3, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Irondro

Yeah, it has intensified quite rapidly, now a "TC" with winds of 75 mph (65 knots) and a pressure of 972 mbars per MFR. JTWC currently has it at 65 mph (55 knots). Both agencies anticipate a peak of 85 mph (75 knots). Luckily it's going to stay far out to sea, with a slight chance it will be a tropical cyclone in the Australian region starting Monday. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 20:12, April 3, 2020 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Irondro

This thing just intensified with winds of 110mph per MFRΒ Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk)

Tropical Cyclone Irondro (2nd time)

Peaked at 110 mph (95 knots) and 945 mbars earlier according to the MFR, but is now back to "TC" strength. According to the MFR's latest advisory, it has quickly weakened to 75 mph (65 knots) and 969 mbars, while the JTWC still reports 95 knots. Expected to be post-tropical by tomorrow evening (PDT time) due to hostile shear. At least we had a fishspinner to watch while Harold bears down on Vanuatu. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:47, April 5, 2020 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Irondro (2nd time)

Weakened to a STS last night, holding this intensity until the final advisory. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:45, April 6, 2020 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Depression Irondro

As of the latest advisory, it's now post-tropical, although JTWC hasn't stopped advisories yet (65 mph or 55 knots according to them). It's also beginning to cross into the Australian region where its remnant low will continue racing southeastward. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:45, April 6, 2020 (UTC)

Final warning has now been issued by JTWC. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 00:39, April 7, 2020 (UTC)

26S.JERUTO

AOI: Far Eastern Basin

A new AOI is shaded yellow over the far eastern part of the basin, with part of the circle overlapping the Australian region. Currently "low" chances per MFR and likely associated with a similar AOI being monitored on BOM's western outlook (see adjacent Australian region forum). Might not become much but we'll see.~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 05:41, April 10, 2020 (UTC)

93S.INVEST

No longer has much of a chance of development in the Aus region (where it's being monitored as a tropical low), but expected to become more significant in this basin. Chances for it becoming a tropical cyclone in the Australian region are now "very low" per BOM, but it's up to "moderate" per MFR for development here. JTWC gives it code yellow (low chance). ~ Steve ✝️ HappyEaster!🐰 00:07, April 13, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12

Now a tropical depression per MFR, Tropical Storm per JTWC.Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 04:02, April 15, 2020 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Jeruto

Now Jeruto has winds of 40 mph per MFR.Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 08:47, April 15, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Jeruto

Back down to a TD and final warning issued by JTWC. Currently 30 knots (35 mph)/1004 mbars per the MFR and expected to become a remnant low very soon. What a big failicia and waste of a name this is, never having surpassed 35 knots (40 mph)/1000 mbar in its short pathetic lifetime. Sad! ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 22:05, April 15, 2020 (UTC)

Not a failicia to be fair. Its formation was entirely unexpected for most. -- JavaHurricane 16:49, April 16, 2020 (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone Jeruto

And it died yesterday. JavaHurricane 16:27, April 17, 2020 (UTC)

Unexpected formation or not, this was still a weakling that stole "Jeruto". Anyways its remnants are still hanging around in the middle of the Indian, gradually degenerating further. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 16:58, April 18, 2020 (UTC)

94S.INVEST

Another invest has appeared, this is at the south of the Chagos archipelago in the middle of the ocean. Currently has a low chance of developing according to the MFR. ~ Steve ✝️ HappyEaster!🐰 00:10, April 13, 2020 (UTC)

No changes since then, still code yellow on MFR, but development is still possible.~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 22:05, April 15, 2020 (UTC)

Dead. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 16:58, April 18, 2020 (UTC)

May

96S.INVEST

96S.INVEST

Tidbits just regconized this system as an Invest. GFS now forecasted that this system could produce pressure as low as 980 mBar.Β Κ™Ιͺʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:27, May 1, 2020 (UTC)

This is actually east of 90E, in the Australian region right now. ~ Steve πŸ™πŸ» Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.πŸ“§ 22:58, May 1, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: Near Indonesia

AOI: Near Indonesia

I am not sure if this "AOI" is actually just Mangga. Nevertheless, MΓ©tΓ©o-France monitored a system of interest a couple of days ago. They said that development was unlikely in the SWIO and referred readers to TCWC Jakarta for more information. Namely, chances of formation were very low for the next five days. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:45, May 22, 2020 (UTC)

This AOI is no longer mentioned on MΓ©tΓ©o-France's TWO. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:08, May 23, 2020 (UTC)

Storm Grades

Since retirements are not done here (as every name that is used during the season has a 100% chance of retirement (a.k.a. is removed and replaced by other names for the season coming in 3 years from now)), I'm introducing a "grade the storm" just for this basin if anyone wants to do it. Mine is below along with my predictions for the future of the season, though you don't have to do that part if you don't want to. ~ Steve ☘ HappySt. Patrick's Day!🌈 23:05, March 17, 2020 (UTC)

Steve's Grading and Future Outlook

  • The "Main" tab: Lists grades for all storms.
  • The "To sum it up..." tab: Provides a summary of all the storm's grading and retirement chances for those who don't want to read through all the descriptions on the main tab.
  • The "Summary of Colors & Explanations" tab: All the information you need about the colors and styles used, and explanations for many things to help answer any questions or solve any confusion you might have.
  • The "Future Outlook" tab: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

"Zone of Disturbed Weather"s or Tropical Disturbances are not eligible for grading.

  • Ambali: S - What's not to like about this storm? Fastest intensification ever recorded in the SHem and comparable to Patricia, first VITC since Fantala... all while staying out to sea. Also vastly exceeded every initial intensity forecast. Now that was amazing. :) Unfortunately didn't become a C5 on the SSHWS, holding it back from even higher grades.
  • Belna: B+ - Pretty strong but not as powerful as feared. It looks like Madagascar was spared from catastrophe but 9 deaths is still saddening.
  • Calvinia: C - A pretty average cyclone that reached C1 (SSHWS) intensity. Caused negative impacts to the Mascarenes Islands, especially Mauritius.
  • 05: Z - A complete fail, thankfully wasn't named despite JTWC's intensity.
  • Diane: D- - Became a STS at least. Unfortunately was a deadly storm, killing 31.
  • Esami: F- - A forgettable fail that affected nobody, unless pre-tropical impacts to the Mascarenes count.
  • Francisco: E - Did better than I thought it would because of how it regenerated near Madagascar. But still a forgettable weakling.
  • Gabekile: C+ - Gets points for its unexpected rapid intensification to C1 intensity. At least it affected nobody.
  • Herold: B+ - Nice job becoming the first major (C3+ on SSHWS) storm of 2020 :)
  • Irondro: B - Stayed far out to sea, becoming another Intense TC, but failed to be considered a C3 in 1-min winds.
  • Jeruto: Z - A pathetic weakling that stole a name, but prevented from the lowest grade due to the fact it lasted a few days and formed a bit unexpectedly.

  • The Hall of Fame (S or higher): Ambali
  • Really Amazing Performers (A- to A+):
  • Good Performers (B- to B+): Belna, Herold, Irondro
  • Average Performers (C- to C+): Calvinia, Gabekile
  • "Meh" Performers (D- to D+): Diane
  • Failures (E and F): Francisco
  • Epic Failures (F- and Z): 05, Esami, Jeruto
  • The Hall of Shame (πŸ€¦πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ):

Intensity colors (SSHWS, 1-min winds): TD/SD (≀35 mph, ≀30 knots), Weak TS/SS (40-50 mph, 35-45 knots), Strong TS/SS (60-70 mph, 50-60 knots), C1 (75-90 mph, 65-80 knots), C2 (100-110 mph, 85-95 knots), C3 (115-125 mph, 100-110 knots), C4 (130-155 mph, 115-135 knots), C5 (160-180 mph, 140-155 knots), BEAST MODE (185+ mph, 160+ knots)

  • Uses the SSHWS color coding found on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones.
  • There's a few differences though.
    • A color for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) is added so they would not be lumped in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. This color is used in all basins even those that (in official scales) do not use this color, such as the Atlantic and EPac.
    • A completely new color is added for "BEAST MODE" cyclones that reach or exceed the incredible intensity of 185 mph (160 knots). Because I feel that the official C5 color is not strong enough to represent these storms, this color is introduced for the most powerful of the powerful storms. They might be Category 6s if the category was introduced someday.
  • This same intensity scale is used in all basins, regardless of what their official scale is. 1-min winds outside of the NHC-monitored basins come from the JTWC.
  • TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA).

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A; 0.000...1-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999...%; 100%; TBA (active storms only)

  • Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color.
    • The top limit for each range is actually a bit higher than shown above (except for 99.999...%). For example, the true top limit to the 1-4% range is 4.999...%. The ranges depicted end at the whole number below to save space and avoid confusion (such as "5%" being part of two ranges at the same time if the previous range is not rounded down).
    • "50%" is the only standalone percentage outside of a range (except for 0% and 100%). This percentage means that the chances are a coin toss, there is an equal chance of it either being or not being retired. The lowest limit to the 51-54% range is actually 50.000...1%, but it is rounded to the whole number above to also save space and avoid any confusion.
  • "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired.
    • "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade.
  • "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active.
    • If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear.
  • Usually, "0%" and "100%" are approximate percentages, meaning the chances of the opposite outcome happening is so low that I won't even consider using any percentage just above the absolute so that I can save space. If the percentage is depicted as "0%", the actual percentage might be more like 0.000...millions of zeros...0.1%, or if "100%", would be more like 99.999...millions of nines...9%. If a storm with a "0%" percentage is retired, it would be like winning the lottery or even something more unlikely.
    • The only situation where the percentages are actually absolute is in basins with agencies that use retirement requirements, such as in the Philippine region (PAGASA). Their requirement of at least β‚±1 billion in damages or 300 deaths for a storm ensures that any storm that meets it will be retired, and those that do not meet it are not retired for sure. No percentage between 0% and 100% is used for such a basin.
  • Tropical cyclones and their descriptions have special formatting depending on retirement chance.
    • For 0 to 24%, only the name, retirement percentage, and grade is bolded; the rest of the entry is plain-text.
    • For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded even the descriptions.
    • For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is bolded and italicized.
    • For 75% to 99.999...%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined.
    • Lastly, for storms with a 100% chance of retirement, the whole entry is BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Grading colors: SSS, SS, S, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, πŸ€¦πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ, TBA (active storms only)

  • Ranks a storm's performance.
  • Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, but if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance (extremely destructive/deadly), a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, nothing above "A+" will be received).
  • It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. The color scheme was also made to make sense.
    • "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and used only for non-destructive storms. They performed exceptionally well in terms of intensity, longevity, how unusual it is, topping intensity forecasts, persisting through unfavorable conditions, and maybe broke or helped to break records. The "S" grades go from bronze, to silver, and lastly to gold for the top grade of them all.
      • "S" by itself is bronze, and is the lowest ranking of the "perfection" grades used for non-destructive storms. "S" receiving storms, while really amazing, are still not amazing enough for the highest ranking honors.
      • The "SS" honor, which is silver, is the second highest of all and perhaps the highest that can ever be given out for storms that didn't break records in an absolutely unusual way. Examples of exceptional storms that can get up to here include 185+ mph fishspinners, an off-season (especially around Jan-Apr) Atlantic hurricane, or a powerful system lasting and persisting for as long as the longest-lived storms ever (John '94, San Ciriaco, Ginger, Inga, Kyle '02, Nadine '12). Certain other fighters such as Genevieve '14 or Otis '17 can also make it up to here.
      • The most superlative grade of all is...*drumroll*..."SSS"! This grade is so rare that it might only be given out once or twice a decade or even less often. It's also colored gold. They break records in an absolutely exceptional way, for example a major hurricane in the Atlantic in March, a Patricia-intensity storm (if not devastating), a storm lasting more than a month, and storms that fight through and defy forecasts so much that they might put even Genevieve '14 to shame. They truly are the storms that will forever live at the top ranks of the Hall of Fame.
    • The rest of the grades are colored based on the rainbow, from a violet/indigo "A+" to a blue "A", cyan "B", green "C", yellow "D", and red "F". Due to red being the color for danger, it's best to be used for failing grades, while green and above are colors used for things being fine (no danger at all). Yellow and orange show caution (uh oh!) and are used for grades really close to failing. Due to blue and especially violet/indigo being the furthest away from the danger colors, it's best used for the highest grades before the "S" grades which are instead colored by precious metals.
    • You can easily figure out what the grades A+ to F mean from the educational grading system. An explanation is not really needed. The only addition within this range is the grade "E", used to fill the gap between the "D" grades and the "F" failing grade. Grade "E" is usually given to moderate tropical storms that were quite pathetic but not enough to actually be failures.
    • And now, for the worst of the worst: below the letter "F", there are a few grades used to describe really pathetic failures.
      • "F-" means the storm failed so much that it deserves less than the basic "F", but still did something that would save it from lower grades. Examples: pre or post-season formation, unusual location, peaking beyond 40 mph, etc.
      • The grade "Z" comes from the fact that if you continue down the same pattern as the educational grading scale, you would continue going down the alphabet the bigger the fail is. While "A" can be used for perfection (but still less than "S"), "B" is less perfect, "C" is average, "D" is below average, "E" in my scale is a gap-filler for almost failing, and "F" is failing. The scale could continue down to "G", "H", etc. if it's an even bigger failure, all the way down to "Z" for the worst possible failures of all. Although "S" is closer to "Z" when going down the alphabet, that letter is a notable exception, and instead "T" would denote the next bigger failure below "R". To denote the worst failures of all, I am skipping straight down to the last letter, "Z", because all the in-between letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. Since "Z" is the last letter, it would be the absolute polar opposite of "A", the first letter and top grade, and thus the polar opposite of good/perfect. That letter is used for some of the worst failures (although there is an even worse grade, more on that shortly). Storms that receive this grade are short-lasting TDs, name-stealers peaking at 40 mph and lasting less than 2 days in total, and any storms that peak beyond 40 mph have to have been lasting a day or less in total or peaking way below the initial expectations (like a storm expected to become a hurricane peaks at 45 mph).
      • The absolute worst grade: These storms are so pathetic that they don't deserve even a letter. "Z" might still sound too good for them. I introduce... the "πŸ€¦πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ" grade. Yes, it's an actual facepalm. This emoji is styled based on my gender and skin color, so if you were to borrow it and have different characteristics, I'd recommend finding a similar facepalm emoji with your own gender/skin color. This grade is rare and should stay that way. Examples of the absolutely worst failures that would actually receive this grade include: a 6-12 hour pop-up TD, a name-stealer that peaks at 40 mph and lasts a day or less in total from formation to dissipation, or any named storm that was downgraded in post-analysis to a TD or even a low (meaning they actually never deserved a name). Even some very bad TS or TD failures that pop up from time to time might not be bad enough for this grade, because they CANNOT peak beyond 40 mph nor last longer than a day.

Retirement chance ranges for:

  • "Retired, no question": 100%
  • "Almost Certainly Retired": 90-99.999...%
  • "Extremely Likely Retired": 80-89%
  • "Very Likely Retired": 70-79%
  • "Likely Retired": 60-69%
  • "Somewhat Likely": 51-59%
  • "Tossup": 50%
  • "Possible": 40-49%
  • "Slight Chance": 30-39%
  • "Unlikely": 20-29%
  • "Highly Unlikely": 10-19%
  • "Almost Certainly Staying": 0.000...1%-9%
  • "Staying, no question": 0%

Current outlook:

  • I expect that this season will end at or around Jeruto.
  • Kundai or beyond is looking unlikely.

  • Chances that Kundai will be used: 5% - Getting really unlikely.
  • Chances that Lisebo will be used: 0.01% - Extremely doubtful, I don't see two storms forming in the post-season.
  • Chances that Michel or anything beyond will be used: 0% - Nopety nopety nope

The original outlook from November 30 for comparison:

  • I expect that this season will end at or around Herold.
  • It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Francisco or Gabekile, or go further to Irondro, Jeruto, or Kundai.
  • Lisebo or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Esami or before is also unlikely.

  • Chances that Ambali will be used: 100% - Absolutely has to form this season. Very likely to be seen by the end of 2019.
  • Chances that Belna will be used: 100% - Must form this year, could be seen in January.
  • Chances that Calvinia will be used: 100% - Also virtually certain to form, might be seen by the end of January or in February.
  • Chances that Diane will be used: 99% - Most likely, by the end of February, Diane will be seen.
  • Chances that Esami will be used: 92% - I would say this is an early March storm or something.
  • Chances that Francisco will be used: 78% - Likely by the end of March imo.
  • Chances that Gabekile will be used: 64% - Possibly might end here if the season is doomed to be below-average this year. Looking like a late-March or April system.
  • Chances that Herold will be used: 53% - The chances of this is just above a coin flip, and this looks like the best chance for the last storm in April or even post-season.
  • Chances that Irondro will be used: 44% - If the season is active it's possible.
  • Chances that Jeruto will be used: 35% - There's a chance that this year could be the 2nd consecutive above-average season. *currently up to here*
  • Chances that Kundai will be used: 25% - A bit doubtful but cannot be ruled out, since last year made it to the "L" name.
  • Chances that Lisebo will be used: 13% - It's highly doubtful.
  • Chances that Michel will be used: 4% - Nah, I don't see us getting this far.
  • Chances that Nousra will be used: 0.01% - If this somehow actually happened I would scream.
  • Chances that Olivier or anything beyond will be used: 0% - Nopety nopety nope

~ Steve ☘ HappySt. Patrick's Day!🌈 23:05, March 17, 2020 (UTC) (last updated 01:26, May 22, 2020 (UTC))

Ryan's Grades

Although there's no retirements here, I'll still rank these storms for the fun of it:

  • Ambali - S - Fastest intensification by windspeed in the SHem during a 24 hour period on record (115 mph), only fell 5 mph short of Patricia's worldwide record 120 mph increase in that same time period on October 22-23, 2015, and best of all, it didn't affect land. It's not every day that the first storm of the season becomes the best.
  • Belna - B - Became somewhat strong, but was the only storm to make landfall at cyclone strength this year, so the impacts cut it down a little.
  • Calvina - C - Brought some impacts to Mauritius, and wasn't very strong.
  • Diane - D- - Killed many people and didn't become strong as it was heading out to sea. Not good, Diane.
  • Esami - F - Never affected land and was weak too. Fail.
  • Francisco - D - Didn't become very strong and sadly killed a person in Madagascar when it stalled near their coastline for a while.
  • Gabekile - C+ - Saved from being a total fail since it managed to crack cyclone intensity, but wasn't very strong.
  • Herold - B+ - Didn't affect land for the most part, and became a decently strong storm, but not strong enough to get an A or S rank.

Ryan1000 14:31, March 31, 2020 (UTC)

Replacement names

I am not sure how this section will turn out, but I will give it an attempt. As you all probably know, names in the SWIO are automatically retired after their usage. Consequently, I thought that it would be fun to guess the replacement names for all ten names that were utilized this year. As a side note, like the NIO and WPAC, a group of countries pool a list of the names for the SWIO. You can see those countries at this link: [1] (Click on "Operational products" and then "names").

Because I do not know if SWIO naming lists alternate between genders, my lists below contain options of both sexes. In particular, I recommend for Francisco and Jeruto:

Francisco - Mozambique

  • Fadila
  • Farzana
  • Faizal
  • Felicha
  • Fidelia

Jeruto - Kenya

  • Jayden
  • Jela
  • Jumapili
  • Jafari
  • Jehlani

Any other ideas? AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:48, May 17, 2020 (UTC)

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