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This is the forum page for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.

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Please respect etiquette and assume good faith. Also, be nice and remain civil.


Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:Pre-season-July, August
Storm Event Archives:Dorian

Other Basin Talkpages (2019): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

Future start

We're going to make the 2019 forum slightly ahead of time, but we already have the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific betting pools up, with some slight changes. In any instance, this year is using list 5, the one Atlantic naming list that has never gone one single season of usage without having at least 1 retired name since the modern naming lists since 1979, and has the most retired names from any 1979-today naming list, with 13. My personal predictions are 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and maybe a category 5 or two. I doubt the El Nino we saw rise up last year will last long or that strongly into 2019, not to want a bad season, but it's very possible. Ryan1000 03:52, November 20, 2018 (UTC)

I also think the El Nino won't last as long, but I do think it will last around February or March, and then a warm neutral for most of the season. However, I also believe El Nino effects will linger int he Atlantic for most of the season, i.e., strong upper-wind shear. With that being said, I think the 2019 AHS will be near-neutral season with 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. I don't expect a C5 this upcoming season, but I do expect 1 retired name, maybe even no names being retired.  ~ Roy25   Happy Thanksgiving Day!!! | 🦃   23:09, November 22, 2018 (UTC) 
While I personally think the name list has no correlation to the upcoming season, I just hope it has at least one major hurricane, lol. I think 2019 will be slightly below to near average. - PORYGONAL 13:18, November 28, 2018 (UTC)
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! Sandy156 :) 04:06, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

Hall of Fame 2019

Since it's officially 2019, this year's hall of fame is now open for voting, if anyone wants to do it. Ryan1000 12:34, January 1, 2019 (UTC)

September

Since it's only a day away, this section has been added. The two AOIs in Africa and GOM will be transferred here if they become TDs. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:40, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

models are hinting that the wave behind fernand to be will take an irma type path. Looking likely itllgbe humberto. PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:54, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

08L.GABRIELLE

AOI: Off the coast of Africa

New wave being shown off of Africa on the NHC site. 0/20 Leeboy100Hello! 07:02, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Now up to 0/30. Sandy156 :) ~ Beware of Dorian 14:27, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
0/40 now. Beatissima (talk) 23:57, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
This wave gives me chills. A potentially major Fernand could be looming. Hopefully it's a fishspinner if it develops because we don't need any more devastation after Dorian's threat and the impacts of big ones in previous years. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 02:52, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
Now up to 10/50. Sandy156 :) ~ Beware of Dorian 05:47, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Judging by the 5-day TWO, this looks like a fishspinner. The 10/20 AOI in the GOM is more concerning for me, as it may become a big rain event which might cause flooding in Mexico or other areas in the Gulf. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:54, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

20/60 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:36, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Looking likely that this storm will be a fishspinner, due to a quick northern turn it'll take soon, so this probably won't do much on land. But it might have a chance to RI to a semi-strong hurricane, if previous storms like Fred and Julia in this position are anything to judge by. Ryan1000 14:16, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

I predict a cat 2 from Fernand. PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:56, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
Hopefully this will be a fishspinner, looks like that will likely be the case. Has a chance to be our next major IMO. Still won't rule out the possibility that it curves back to the west after the end of the 5-day TWO forecast and eventually threatens Bermuda and New England/Atlantic Canada in the very long run. Gives me slight Florence vibes tbh. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Increased to 50/70. This is becoming interesting. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:16, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

91L.INVEST

Looks like this is finally invested. ChowKam2002 (talk) 13:34, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Any analogs for this storm? PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:39, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

60/70 now. YellowSkarmory (talk) 17:45, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

This is looking most likely to become Fernand. Hopefully it will be a fish. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:06, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
Now 60/80. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:54, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
80/80, a TD may arrive tomorrow morning. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:00, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Added these AOI's to September as they'll form in the month by now, if they develop. Also, I archived August sans Dorian, who will get his own archive when he dissipates. Anyways, this'll probably become Fernand first, but it's unlikely to affect land, besides Cabo Verde. Ryan1000 16:58, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Now 80/90. Sandy156 :) ~ Beware of Dorian 21:04, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
Beware the first storm of September!!!!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:06, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

90/90 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:07, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Probably not this year Dylan, The first storm this month will not be very notable, if it's this storm it'll be a fishspinner, if it's PTC 7 it'll be a short-lived and weak TS hitting Mexico. Ryan1000 12:40, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight

It’s a TD. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 21:03, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Gabrielle-to-be looks like it'll take an almost straight path northwestward with little strengthening. Forecast to reach 50 mph by Thursday and stay that way through the rest of the forecast due to complicating factors. But it could weaken or strengthen along the way. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:15, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
actf says this is gabby PeterPiper567 (talk) 02:24, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
Yeah just noticed Ȝeſtikl (talk) 02:25, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
Weirdly, NHC went against an upgrade for the new advisory :/ guess Gabrielle will have to wait another 6 to 12 hours. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:48, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

Now it’s named. 40 mph, 1005 mbars. Leeboy100Beware of Dorian 09:24, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Up to 45 kts (50 mph)/1003 mbar now, forecast peak near the end of the period raised to 55 kts. Rooting for the first Hurricane Gabrielle since 2001, which would also be the first hurricane to bear a female name this season — heck, it's already the strongest lady of the season so far simply by intensifying past 35 kts! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:01, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
Looks like the boys are taking everything this year... PeterPiper567 (talk) 17:29, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
Yeah, so far the girls (Andrea, Chantal, Erin) have been fails and the male names have been destructive (although Fernand might not be terribly bad compared to Barry and Dorian, especially Dorian). Gabrielle, however, should be better than the other girl names, with a forecast peak of 65 mph and it could potentially be a hurricane. At least this is a fishspinner though. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:16, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
Up to 50 mph. Now forecast to become a hurricane early next week. Looks like this will be the first girls' name not to fail this year. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:54, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
Yes Gabrielle. Become a hurricane! Ȝeſtikl (talk) 00:45, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
Unfortunately it’s still poorly organized but a hurricane would be possible as it turns to the northeast. Sandy156 :) 14:29, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 45 mph/1002 mbar. This thing is struggling under high wind shear to stay alive. I would say it might have a chance at becoming a remnant low before regenerating and becoming a possible hurricane. Gabrielle reminds me of Felix '89. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:57, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle

I'm-- I am shocked. Last advisory has been issued by the NHC (for now). 40 mph, 1004 mbars. Hopefully it regenerates during the weekend, as said by the same weather bureau. Slight chance of becoming a hurricane before it becomes extratropical again. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:36, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2nd time)

Guess what- we didn't need to wait that long. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:28, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Gabrielle is now forecast to peak at 85 mph, which means that we might finally have a fishspinning hurricane this season. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:57, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
This was post-tropical for such a short time lol. It's possible in post-analysis they might remove the post-tropical part altogether (or extend it). Yeah, a fishspinning hurricane is very likely - it might even have Category 2 potential. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:37, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
Gabrielle is starting to remind me of last year's Leslie. Beatissima (talk) 23:17, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
Now on its way to becoming a hurricane. Up to 60 mph/999 mbar. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:51, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
Center has relocated to the west; down to 50 mph/1002 mbar. Sandy156 :) 18:18, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Forecast peak intensity lowered to 75 mph. I hope it can still become a hurricane... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:14, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

And now it's not even forecast to become a hurricane anymore... 🙁 ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:41, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
Strengthened to 65 mph/995 mbar, it may become a brief hurricane before turning extratropical. Sandy156 :) 22:11, September 8, 2019 (UTC)
Hopefully it does become a hurricane, but it'll be like a re-Barry if it does so. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:31, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

Sadly its weakening now... down to 50 mph/1000 mbar. A guess a hurricane wasn't meant to be. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:27, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

This has been a sexist season so far :( hopefully Imelda can take one home for the ladies and lend its name to a hurricane, as long as it isn't destructive. At least Gabrielle became the third-strongest storm of the season so far...! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:32, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
Gabrielle at least tried to become a hurricane, but sadly it didn’t. At least Gabrielle is the strongest of all the tropical storms this season. Try again in 2025, Gabrielle. Sandy156 :) 23:40, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle (2nd time)

And she's gone... for good (or at least until 2025). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:12, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

07L.FERNAND

AOI: Gulf of Mexico

An AOI popped up just recently in the southeastern GoM. At 10/20 rn. Sandy156 :) ~ Beware of Dorian 05:47, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Gulf is a hot tub, wind shear is low and luttle dry air. Can't see this not becoming Gabrielle. PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:57, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
Or Fernand if it develops quicker than the Cape Verde wave. The race is on for our next named storm. Now 20/30 on the TWO, but considering the threat to northeastern Mexico, hopefully it's not going to RI. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:11, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like both will be named imo PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:53, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

still 20/30, will it get a name PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:39, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
Up to 20/40, this'll probably be Gabrielle if it develops. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:55, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
Now up to 30/50. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:00, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

93L.INVEST

Invested and now up to 60/70. This is currently organizing by the minute, so maybe this would be Gabrielle (or maybe even Fernand) if it forms. Sandy156 :) ~ Beware of Dorian 20:59, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

It's a race for the name "Fernand" at this point, although I still think this will be named Gabrielle and the Cape Verde invest gets Fernand. This really looks like it will repeat Gabrielle's 1995 incarnation. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:34, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Jumped to 80/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:07, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven

Seems that this will form first. Will likely peak as a weak TS though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:05, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

The two day TWO has PT 7 at 100/100 on the map, and 80/80 on the written statement (or whatever it's called).  Which one is it? Ȝeſtikl (talk) 11:05, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

It's the former, 100/100. This'll probably become Fernand first at this rate, though we can't rule out the possibility that 91L could pull a surprise and jump to Fernand quickly. It'll probably become a tropical storm and move into Mexico, hopefully without causing any serious flooding. Ryan1000 12:38, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven

Now a TD. 30 kts/1004 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:32, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernand

And here we have the winner of the race to Fernand. 40 mph/1004 mb as of the latest advisory, it looks to be similar to Danielle in 2016. Send Help Please (talk) 18:03, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Or even his last incarnation in 2013, albeit a little later in the season and farther north. Ryan1000 18:38, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
Another good comparison might still be Gabrielle in 1995, even though this storm won the race and got "Fernand" instead. It's likely to remain weak before landfall, an outside chance it RIs and reaches at least 60 mph though. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:18, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
How sad, Fernand deja vued himself from 2013. Sandy156 :) ~ Beware of Dorian 23:15, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
Fernand is now at 50 mph/1000 mbar. May intensify further before making landfall. Sandy156 :) ~ Beware of Dorian 00:11, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall on Tamaulipas State

Actually, Fernand has made landfall now and is down to 40 mph. This really is almost a repeat of its 2013 incarnation except it's further north, and the best comparisons would be Beryl 2000, and like I said earlier, Gab '95. Hopefully it won't be too bad in northeastern Mexico. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:33, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fernand

It has been downgraded to a TD over land. Should dissipate soon. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:53, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Bye Fernand.  You were short-lived. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 00:40, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Fernand

Bye bye.Ȝeſtikl (talk) 07:56, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Whoa, damage estimates are in, and they're all the way up to $383 million (with, sadly, at least one fatality on top of that). It's not enough to make Fernand a retirement candidate, but even keeping in mind that flooding rainfall can give weak storms like Fernand an equalizer to compensate for the relative lack of winds, I still didn't expect to see a damage figure quite that high. If that damage estimate and/or the death toll rise, then I guess the adage did verify this September, if not nearly on the level of Florence, Ike, Felix, or Ivan. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:44, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
A bit surprising to see the totals so high. I guess it was more significant than expected and might just somewhat meet "First Storm of September" criteria. These totals are not nearly enough for retirement though. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:21, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

92L.INVEST

AOI: East of Dorian

0/20 as of the moment. Just like the WPac, the Atlantic is heating up. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:14, September 1, 2019 (UTC) Does anyone reckon this will get named? PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:38, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

10/30 now. YellowSkarmory (talk) 17:46, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

do you think it will be named PeterPiper567 (talk) 17:53, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
I believe so. If they all develop and get named, we'll be up to Humberto by late week. And this is all after a mostly dead August before Chantal. The Atlantic has exploded for sure! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:10, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Wait even the mexico one? PeterPiper567 (talk) 18:52, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

I'm just saying that they could all become tropical storms and get named, but it's not a guarantee. If this, the Mexico one, and the Cape Verde wave all become tropical storms, we'll be up to Humberto, but if at least one of them falls short, we won't go that far until a bit later in the season. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:03, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

But do YOU think they will all get named or not? That is the question. PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:04, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Like I said, we can't be sure. Maybe they all will, but at least one of them might also bust. We'll have to wait and see. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:32, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Dude, I mean judging from your opinion. YOUR OPINION. Including that huge wave from behind 91L. What order do you think they'll get named and which ones do you think will based on your intuition? In YOUR opinion will that big juicy African wave become Imelda?PeterPiper567 (talk) 21:21, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

91L will become Fernand in my opinion. The Mexico AOI might be Gabrielle and this one might be Humberto. It's quite possible Imelda might come from a wave behind 91L. As far as all of them becoming named though, I'm not super confident right now because one or a couple AOIs also have a good likelihood of busting. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:01, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
Good, because I hope at least one of them busts. PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:10, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Increased slightly to 10/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:38, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

It was actually 10/30 earlier in the day (see YellowSkarmory's post above). Now it's up to 30/50. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:02, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
And I oop-- I didn't notice it earlier, sorry for that. Anyway, the race for Fernand is truly on now. 91L at 80/80, two AOIs at 30/50. Not to mention that another tropical wave from Africa is emerging. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:08, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

92L.INVEST

Now invested but decreased to 30/40. Sandy156 :) ~ Beware of Dorian 21:02, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 30/30, but only a short window now before upper-level winds become unfavorable. Looks like this'll likely bust. I also noticed this glaring error: * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent. Is 30 percent low or medium chance? 😛 ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:36, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Still 30/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:07, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

40/40, might become a short-lived TS like Andrea. Ryan1000 12:45, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
PTC10 v2.0: Electric Boogaloo PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:18, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
50/50. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 19:22, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
Where'd the upper level winds go? Ȝeſtikl (talk) 20:09, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
Most likely still there because if upper-level winds were no longer forecast, the 5-day chances would be higher. This is looking increasingly likely to become a short-lived Humberto if it continues organizing at this rate. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:20, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
I just checked many wind shear maps and the shear is too strong. This will not be named. PeterPiper567 (talk) 22:41, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Up to 60/60. I wouldn't rule out a short-lived failure like Andrea, Gil, or Henriette. Hopefully it's a TD at most because I don't like those epic failure TS name wasters. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:37, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Well, this will likely not even get a name. TD at most because it just moved into 40 knots plus of shear. PeterPiper567 (talk) 18:47, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

40/40. It moved into upper level winds produced by Dorian. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 07:58, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

30/30. Bye bye . Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:16, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 10/10. Thankfully it didn't steal a name. 94L (the Cape Verde system) looks like it will be Humberto. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:59, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
Down and out, off the TWO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:38, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

94L.INVEST

AOI: Tropical Wave Emerging From Africa

On the 5-day outlook at 0/20. Wow, the Atlantic really is exploding in time for the peak of the season. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:04, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Doesn't surprise me, the season was expected to pick up and will probably have quite a few more named storms before it's out. My forecast near the start was anywhere from 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and a cat 5 or two. We've already had 5 named storms, a category 5 in Dorian, and if all of the current waves develop into named storms, we'll be at Imelda in only a week from now, with a good two and a half months of hurricane season after that. Ryan1000 09:53, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
Now up to 0/40. Sandy156 :) ~ Beware of Dorian 21:05, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
And it's up to 0/50. Will probably be Humberto if it develops because 92L seems to be starting to bust, unless 92L pulls a surprise and steals a name. This wave gives me chills tbh, it has potential to be a big one like Florence or even Irma, but hopefully it curves out to sea. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:39, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
What category do you predict from this wave? PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:52, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
Too soon to know for sure. Probably likely to become a major hurricane (C3+). I personally predict a peak of Category 4 or something. This might even have Category 5 potential if conditions up ahead are favorable enough. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:52, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Currently 0/60. Will this continue the "I" curse? I hope not. Dorian is already enough. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:08, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

NHC does have a northward turn at the end of the 5-day forecast area, so there is a chance that this AOI will turn out to sea like 91L is currently expected to. Hopefully that happens. Ryan1000 12:49, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
Anon 2.0, I don't even think 92L will be named. This is likely our H storm. H looks to be the new I. PeterPiper567 (talk) 15:39, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
Yeah, seems like that's going to be the case. Though Helene from last year wasn't as notable as a tropical system, it later transformed into one of those European extratropical windstorms, albeit with less damage. I hope future Humberto will be a fishspinner through and through, and same goes for Imelda (I just want to see it used more than once). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:48, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
What peak and analog are you predicting from this storm, Anon? PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:03, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
If this future system would be a fishspinner I want this to be a C3 but I'm predicting Category 2. (Btw, call me Jas. I just didn't change my display here since I joined a few years back). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:11, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
Aight Jas. I'll call ya that then. Call me Peter. Any reason you're bearish? Dorian's cold wake? PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:17, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

0/70.  Has there ever been a 0/80 or 0/90?  Ȝeſtikl (talk) 20:12, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Yeah I think I remember a couple during the past few years. Development is almost certain to occur in the future with this. Hopefully it's a fishspinner - the turn at the end of the 5-day forecast looks hopeful. However, this still gives me slight Florence and even Irma vibes. If 92L becomes a short-lived Humberto, well... Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:26, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
As Peter mentioned, the shear is likely too strong for 92L to develop. Even if it does, I don’t think it will be a named storm.Ȝeſtikl (talk) 10:52, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Slightly down to 0/60. The wait for Humberto is slightly taking too long. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:53, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

what's going on.... PeterPiper567 (talk) 17:27, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
Weird that all the incarnations of Humberto became hurricanes.... And that he's never storm number 8 either... PeterPiper567 (talk) 17:32, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
Yeah, I have noticed that too. Usually Humberto is the 9th system (there are always systems before it that peak at TD level, this year it was TD3). And yeah, Dorian's cold wake (and possibly Gabrielle's) is one of the reasons why I don't see this peaking as a very strong one, although only time will tell whether or not that will materialize. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:22, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
Down further to 0/50. I guess this might take longer to develop. Looks likely to be "Humberto" but I still wouldn't rule out 92L being a name stealer. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:40, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
And he'll keep his hurricane streak for the 5th time in a row PeterPiper567 (talk) 18:48, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

I don't like the fact it's taking longer to develop than earlier thought, because if it doesn't develop until later, it'll have a higher likelihood of threatening land down the road. Ryan1000 10:59, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

10/50 now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:19, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

94L.INVEST

AAAAAAAA SHIPS PREDICTS AT LEAST A CAT 2 WITH 29 DEGREE SSTS AND VERY LITTLE SHEAR... AND THAT WSW TURN ON TROP TIDBITS IS FREAKING ME OUT OMGGGGG 20/60 AAAAAAAA PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:54, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

honestly this freaks me out soooo much because my auntie is from martinique and this might lash the west indies PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:56, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
Yeah this freaks me out as well. This gives me slight Irma vibes and could be a pretty big monster in the long run. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:01, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Don't doomcast this just yet, the initial intensity guidance on Dorian when it was an invest called for a cat 2-3 when it reached the upper lessers and it was only a cat 1 as it was leaving them. It'll probably become Humberto down the road but it's way too soon to tell how strong it'll be when it reaches the Antilles. Ryan1000 22:24, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

20/70 now Ȝeſtikl (talk) 10:23, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Intensity guidance is now down quite a bit, most models predict a cat 1 at best in the late forecast period when it's near the Antilles, and if it follows the latest GFS center path it might do what Dorian was initially forecast to do but didn't, which is, move over the DR and die over the mountains. Of course, this is all speculation and is quite a ways down the road, but it is a bit of relief from some of the earlier intensity forecasts for the long run of 94L. Ryan1000 12:20, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
Now at 10/70, the chances keep fluctuating. Down the road, I expect at least the Lesser Antilles to be impacted - hopefully it dies out over Hispaniola. A U.S. threat still looks to be in the cards for the very long run, but I hope not. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:41, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
What if that fatass wave behind 94L takes Humberto and 94L takes Imelda just like Helene and Isaac? PeterPiper567 (talk) 01:40, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 10/60, this will take longer to form. As for a Helene/Isaac scenario, it could be possible at this rate if this takes too long to develop. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:53, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Still at 10/60, and will probably be taking some time to develop. SST's are ripe for strong intensification in the NW Caribbean and GOM, but wind shear is currently very unfavorable there, as it is just south of PR and the northeastern antilles, where Dorian passed not too long ago. Shear will have to settle a bit if this wants to have any chance at Humberto, but (fortunately) it isn't expected to for now. Most of the intensity guidance predicts a TS from this when it nears the Antilles, maybe a C1, but unless shear settles this won't have much of a chance past the unfavorable eastern Caribbean. Ryan1000 14:00, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Are you kidding me? Shear is pretty light last time I checked the shear map 2 minutes ago. What you smokin dude? PeterPiper567 (talk) 14:17, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Um, what? Did you check this latest shear map near the Antilles? There's quite a strong red patch of shear just south of PR, and some way down the road near the Yucatan. The latter is obviously subject to change if 94L makes it that far out but the former is more in the near-future. Obviously there's almost none directly front of 94L right now but that wasn't what I was talking about, if the 25-30 knot shear currently near PR persists when 94L reaches the eastern Caribbean, it'll have a tough time there. Ryan1000 16:07, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Peter, be nice pls. What map were you even looking at lol? The map Ryan linked does show pretty strong shear over the areas mentioned. I assume maybe Peter was looking at the shear tendency map, which could be confusing to interpret and might seem to underestimate the amount of shear in the regions. Anyway, down to 10/50, this is such a frustrating invest. It might not even develop until next week, if that. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:20, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Down even further to 10/40. Looks like NHC is starting to think the "great eastern Caribbean shear" I mentioned above will kill it if it doesn't develop before the Antilles. Honestly, I'd rather prefer this not develop than steal Humberto and kill his hurricane streak, so long as the storm that eventually becomes Humberto turns OTS, like his last incarnation in 2013. Ryan1000 02:32, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

Or maybe the fatass wave behind 94L eats up 94L and becomes humberto instead PeterPiper567 (talk) 02:52, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

I see that future AOI on some of the runs on Tidbits, though it's not officially on the TWO yet. Anyways, it seems like the shear I mentioned above is shifting farther east, now it's just east of the Antilles and 94L might not even develop at all if it gets torn up by that. But, better a failed invest than a fail named storm. Ryan1000 10:16, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

aw sheit it finna flop idk why doe
1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while the low moves west-southwestward to westward across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. By Thursday, the upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
so this means it prolly won't form then bc of all dat sinkin air bro wtf is goin' on PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:30, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

"By Thursday, the upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation." -- Looks like I was right on the eastern Caribbean shear after all. But, if you see the section I made below, another AOI is probably going to be emerging off of Africa behind 94L sometime soon, and the GFS had some pretty scary long-term runs for it. Obviously that's a long ways ahead, but with the MDR heating up and conditions expected to become more favorable as the month goes on, we could definitely see another notable storm or two later in the season. Probably not from this particular system though. Ryan1000 01:57, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

A bit surprised this is flopping after all the potential it seemed to have a couple days ago. Still possible we get a short-lived fail from this, but I'm going to look at the wave behind it, as that seems to have much more potential to be very significant. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:35, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
it won't form it's 20/30 now
lol PeterPiper567 (talk) 14:45, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
20% for 2 days and 30% for 5 days is not zero, lol. Those percentages mean there is still around a 1/4 chance of formation. Remember Chantal? That system was only at a 10% chance of formation before rapidly organizing and becoming named. And TD 3 initially didn't have much of a chance either, and neither did other surprises like Emily '17, Julia '16, or Jose '11. There's still a small chance this could blow up and steal Humberto, although I hope it won't. Shear will become unfavorable after mid-week. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:35, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
it be eaten up by the fatass wave behind it doe PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:03, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 20/20, development looking highly unlikely now. Humberto should come from either the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico or from the tropical wave behind it. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:49, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 10/10. ~ Steve 😔 9/11Never forget. 🙏 AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸 15:27, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
0/0, rip 94L. Sandy156 :) ~ Remember 9/11 23:39, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
And now it's no longer on the TWO. ~ Steve 😔 9/11Never forget. 🙏 AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸 06:29, September 12, 2019 (UTC)

09L.HUMBERTO

AOI: East of the Lessers

New AOI. 10/10 as of the moment. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:03, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

I doubt this will become much of anything, unless it pulls tricks on us. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:02, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 0/10. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:42, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
Waste of an AOI. They might as well have not even included this on the TWO. I'd be shocked if this develops. Ryan1000 01:34, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
Agreed, this barely even had a chance. No longer on the TWO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 05:53, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Actually, scratch that, it's still on the 5-day, but at 0/20. Still probably won't become much. EDIT: Neither of the global models develop this. Ryan1000 02:38, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

Still 0/20, but now north of Hispaniola and entering Bahamas territory. It's possible we could see something in the Gulf of Mexico. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 04:22, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

95L.INVEST

Invested and up to 10/40. We could very well see Humberto from this once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:51, September 11, 2019 (UTC)

GFS ensembles don't make it much more than a weak TS in the gulf, though if this takes Humberto before the African wave, then the "I" curse might come again this year down the road...and Humberto's hurricane streak would likely be toast just like Gordon's was last year, as it's unlikely this will become a hurricane in the Gulf down the road. Interestingly, Gordon formed at around this same time last year, just a week earlier, and had similar precursor origins and track that 95L is taking.Ryan1000 02:08, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
Now 10/50. I agree that if this forms, it probably won't be anything more than a TS. ~ Steve 😔 9/11Never forget. 🙏 AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸 06:22, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
This is gaining more model support... if it develops fast enough like Nate two years ago it may actually briefly reach hurricane status. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:47, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
UH OH! 40 knots of shear are forecast in its entire path and it's GROWING. Plus a good set of dry air. This, IMO, won't be anything more than a TD. PeterPiper567 (talk) 14:23, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
hecc you can see it for yourself http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php PeterPiper567 (talk) 14:24, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
Increased to 20/60. Sandy156 :) ~ Remember 9/11 14:27, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
But still there's a bout of shear on top and in front of this. TD 9, nothing more. And I'm generous. Gordon didn't have this wad of shear tk deal with. PeterPiper567 (talk) 14:38, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
The shear will probably relax when it gets there because the NHC forecasts more favorable conditions in the Gulf. I see it becoming at least TS Humberto. ~ Steve 😔 9/11Never forget. 🙏 AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸 15:26, September 11, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like this could get Humberto before the African wave will, it's currently forecast to move northwest towards a possible landfall in Louisiana next week, though it trended west from a Florida panhandle landfall as potentially shown earlier today. And shear is actually increasing in the gulf right now if you check the shear tendency map, which may hinder development of 95L, though it's not impossible it could settle a little bit before this eventually moves ashore in one of the upper gulf states. Ryan1000 15:42, September 11, 2019 (UTC)

I still predict a TD peak though lmfao PeterPiper567 (talk) 15:47, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
Up to 40/60, this could become at least a TD, but don't discount the possibility that it becomes Humberto. ~ Steve 😔 9/11Never forget. 🙏 AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸 19:02, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
Code red, up to 50/70. Sandy156 :) ~ Remember 9/11 23:42, September 11, 2019 (UTC)

Might become Humberto, though the models are trending back towards moving over southern/central Florida before moving into the GOM briefly. It might become Humberto there, but I'd be surprised if it becomes a hurricane there. A strong TS is more likely. Ryan1000 03:47, September 12, 2019 (UTC)

Now up to 70/80. Surprisingly, it's still not a TS, though the NHC says they might issue PTC advisories on this later today if favorable conditions for development persist. Ryan1000 13:01, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
Now models are shifting east and east and potentially a HURRICANE skirting the east coast, I only got one thing:
Everyday when you're walking down the street
And everybody that you meet
Has an original point of view
And I say HEY! (HEY!)
What a wonderful kind of day.
If you can learn to work and play
And get along with each other
You got to listen to your heart
Listen to the beat
Listen to the rhythm
The rhythm of the street
Open up your eyes
Open up your ears
Get together and make things better
By working together!
It's a simple message and it comes from the heart
Believe in yourself (in yourself)
cause that's the place to start (to start)
And I say HEY! (HEY!)
What a wonderful kind of day
If we can learn to work and play
And get along with each other.
Hey what a wonderful kind of day hey!
Hey what a wonderful kind of day hey!

PeterPiper567 (talk) 15:51, September 12, 2019 (UTC)

Has the NHC not issued another advisory? Ȝeſtikl (talk) 17:24, September 12, 2019 (UTC)

They don't issue advisories until it becomes a Potential Tropical Cyclone or at least a tropical depression. They do issue outlooks for systems not yet a TC, such as this one. The latest outlook keeps it at 70/80 but it could very well become a PTC later today. This is threatening Dorian recovery areas and might actually make landfall in Florida (unlike Dorian). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:48, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
The ECMWF model now forecasts this to follow Dorian's path (paralleling the southeastern U.S. from FL to NC). This might become a hurricane in the long run. But of course that is just one weather model. Apparently GFS is still not enthusiastic on this system. If this ever becomes Hurricane Humberto I hope he stays out at sea and not affect any land areas -- and yes, that includes Bermuda (we don't want a re-Fabian here). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:53, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
EURO SHOWS A PEAK OF 944MB WTF! Also pretty much all the European models show a strong, robust system paralleling the US EC. The turn in New Jersey reminds me of....
YOU'RE THE ONE THAT I WANT, YOU ARE THE ONE I WANT, OOO OOO OOO HONEY PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:00, September 12, 2019 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine

Special Message from NHC Issued 12 Sep 2019 20:08 UTC   
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine near the Bahamas at 5 pm EDT. (www.nhc.gov)Welcome PTC Nine. Nickcoro (talk) 20:14, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
And here we go. Hopefully this won't exacerbate Dorian's impacts. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:36, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
Called it. Plus those songs I posted were references to possible analogs people were tossing about. Never seen so much uncertainties in a path yet. PeterPiper567 (talk) 22:13, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
Well, the bad news for this storm in general is that it'll be another weak storm since it's expected to strike Florida as a TS. Unless in unexpectedly intensifies into a hurricane, Humberto will have its first ever usage to peak as a tropical storm if it gets named. Sandy156 :) 23:41, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
Heccin' hilarious. The models pretty much take this to a cat 2-3 parallelling off NC. Lemme share some of that smoke with ya bro. PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:00, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
Would be nice if it got that strong if it stays out to sea. Humberto shall continue his hurricane streak, maybe it will when it curves away from Florida, but it's a bit soon to be sure what it'll do after leaving Florida (assuming it does). Formation chances upped to 80/90. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:07, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
You know what, scratch my thing above, Humberto may intensify into a hurricane once it emerges into waters after making landfall in Florida (which I hope) and if it intensifies into a C2+ (which is unlikely for now), we'll avoid having a 2007-like season. Sandy156 :) 00:14, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
Watched Cowan's vidya on PTC9. Mentioned Sandy. PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:45, September 13, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like this'll be getting Humberto sometime tomorrow, but if it doesn't become a hurricane before landfall in Florida, it could as it eventually turns off of Florida and out to sea down the road, like say, Gabrielle in 2001 (though that storm hit from the gulf coast) or Dennis in 1981. Ryan1000 04:07, September 13, 2019 (UTC)

Still a PTC, but now the path has shifted enough to possibly see this storm recurving out to sea before even making landfall in Florida (though surf and rip currents will still be a threat). Expected to be a 65 mph TS in the late forecast period, but Humberto-to-be could very well become a hurricane as it moves out to sea. EDIT: Yep, new forecast track is out, officially forecast to become a hurricane late in the forecast period, but remain offshore of Florida. Bermuda may have to watch out down the road though. Looks like Humberto will keep up his hurricane streak after all. Ryan1000 14:30, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
This is also going to worsen the situation in Dorian-devastated Abacos Islands and Grand Bahama. Looks like it'll follow a path reminiscent of Dorian, staying offshore Florida. Unlike Dorian though, this is going further out to sea and might hit Bermuda. Looking like Humberto will continue his hurricane streak this year. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:30, September 13, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine

Upgraded to a tropical depression. Still the same intensity though, 30 mph/1009 mbar. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:01, September 13, 2019 (UTC)

Watch it bomb out to a cat 2+ PeterPiper567 (talk) 21:05, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
The good thing is that this storm is heading out to sea. Let it become a hurricane all it wants so long as it doesn't hit any land, especially at that strength. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:10, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
Bermuda might get clobbered, though. Beatissima (talk) 00:00, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Humberto

40/1008, here’s Humberto. Sandy156 :) 02:54, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

At least it's curving away from the U.S. However, Bermuda has to watch out because it could pass very near or even make landfall there as a hurricane. And the Dorian-devastated areas in the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama are going to get impacted as well. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:53, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
Up to 50 mph, now forecast to become a category 2 and could be our next major. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:13, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

NHC expects a northward turn in the late forecast period, so it might miss Bermuda to the north, though it has been shifting further south over time because of Humberto's slower-than-expected movement (currently stationary). Ryan1000 17:07, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

hwrf runs shows this becoming a pretty category 4 hurricane. nice to look at but maybe lacking in the impact department. shall I say, all beauty, no beast? this could be the case.PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:49, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

lil' fu€ka up to 60mph/1000mb! he's improved! 110mph peak expected... but imma call for a major peak next advisory because he gainin'!!! PeterPiper567 (talk) 02:40, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

Yep it's intensifying, and expected to become a hurricane tomorrow night. I also believe this could become a major. But impacts to Bermuda are still in the cards for around the time it reaches its peak intensity. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:10, September 15, 2019 (UTC)
Upped to 65 mph/997 mbar. Yep, it's getting there... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:14, September 15, 2019 (UTC)
Feels good when it's deep, now 70/989. Keep going deeper boy... you're not going deep enough... PeterPiper567 (talk) 21:48, September 15, 2019 (UTC)
WE GOT OUR 3RD HURRICANE GUYS AL, 09, 2019091600, , BEST, 0, 293N, 778W, 65, 988, HU,

HE KEPT HIS STREAK LMFAO PeterPiper567 (talk) 01:01, September 16, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Humberto

According to Tropical Tidbits, this is a hurricane. Kept his streak Ȝeſtikl (talk) 02:04, September 16, 2019 (UTC)

NHC confirmed. Humberto's still going hurricane strong. Forecast to be a strong cat 2 or maybe even a cat 3 as it passes close to or (hopefully) just north of Bermuda as it moves east out to sea. Ryan1000 02:39, September 16, 2019 (UTC)
This hurricane will most likely prevent a 2007 repeat from happening (unless it peaks at a C1, unlikely). Sandy156 :) 02:54, September 16, 2019 (UTC)
Yeah this year's no longer looking like a re-2007. This will most likely peak as a strong C2 or even a major, and 97L also has a good chance at being big in my opinion. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:23, September 16, 2019 (UTC)

85/979 per Tidbits. Humberto's looking increasingly better organized as time goes on; at this rate, he might be able to pull what Kiko did in the EPac and defy intensity predictions all the way to cat 4! Still forecast to miss Bermuda a little to the north, though the island isn't out of the woods yet. Ryan1000 13:55, September 16, 2019 (UTC)

McDonalds sign in the forecast path. 115 expected. Thicc boi. PeterPiper567 (talk) 15:03, September 16, 2019 (UTC)

Some models predict Humberto could turn back west when he's in the northern part of the Atlantic in the late forecast period, but he'll probably be too far out to sea to make landfall by that point. Ryan1000 18:47, September 16, 2019 (UTC)

90/966 and expected to become a C2 in the next advisory or two. We may see our first ever Major Hurricane Humberto out of this system. Sandy156 :) 00:16, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
I would probably be pretty pissed if Humberto never becomes a major, considering that it never surpassed minimal hurricane strength but came so close to becoming a major in 1995, and to a lesser extent, 2001. I hope Humberto breaks his non-major hurricane curse this year. Still expected to pass right by Bermuda, they might experience quite a bit of impacts. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:57, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
At this point I'll be very surprised if Humberto maxes out at C2 - 966 mbar is a pressure I generally associate with a borderline C2/C3, not a strong C1. If the pressure keeps falling and the winds try to play catch-up, then Ryan may be on to something regarding the prospect of Humberto making a run for C4. I hope it doesn't, though - not only because of the threat to Bermuda, but also because I'd like to see Humberto do for the Atlantic what Juliette did for the EPAC, and give the basin its first C3 peak since Ophelia. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:38, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Dr. Masters said in one of his recent blog posts that SST's are warmer than average in this area of the Atlantic than they're supposed to be, which is also how Florence managed to (re)-intensify into a cat 4 last year before it weakened prior to striking North Carolina, despite its unusual location, so Humberto does have a chance to overshoot intensity forecasts as well and become a category 4 storm briefly, though hopefully he misses Bermuda to north along the way. The current forecast seems almost certain of that though, with Bermuda only on the southernmost tip of the cone, though they might still have to watch out. Ryan1000 09:27, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Category 2 now, 85 kts/961 mbar. For what it's worth, this is already Humberto's strongest incarnation by pressure, since the 1995 incarnation bottomed out at 968 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:01, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
Up to 105 mph/960 mbar. Might become a brief major before passing near Bermuda. Hopefully, as long as it passes far enough from Bermuda, we see the first major hurricane "Humberto" on record this year. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:41, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Humberto

First ever Major Hurricane Humberto, 115/951. Finally about time that Humberto is a C3+. Sandy156 :) 00:01, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

he became a maje LOL! now can you try to get cat 4? You're a big boi now! PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:18, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
He did it! Yay! Maybe it has a chance of C4, but I think I'd prefer a C3 peak as we haven't had one of those in the Atlantic since Ophelia in 2017. Hopefully it passes safely to the north of Bermuda and they don't receive any devastating impacts there. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:41, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
Still a 115 mph C3. I'm not really expecting C4 from this, but 120-125 mph would be my guess as this storm's peak. Also it's coming proximity to Bermuda is really worrying... TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:21, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
planes found a 120mph storm major landfall imminent desu PeterPiper567 (talk) 15:21, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
I hope a landfall won't happen. I actually hope Humberto becomes a C4 but its close proximity to Bermuda prevents me from wishing that. I don't want a re-Fabian (or even a re-Gonzalo/Nicole/Fay) from Humberto. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:35, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

This might get pretty bad for Bermuda as its predicted to pass by extremely close. They might even get parts of the eyewall. Hopefully it's nothing like Fabian. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:48, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

It's now passing right by Bermuda at this moment and they're getting hurricane-force winds which are expected to persist into early Thursday morning. Still 120 mph/952 mbar as of the latest update. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:13, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
Windspeed up slightly to 125 mph. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:16, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Humberto (2nd time)

Down to 110 mph and developing frontal characteristics, which could signal extratropical transition later today while it remains a very powerful storm. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:26, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 105 mph/960 mbar, should be extratropical in the next advisory or two. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:07, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
ATCF says this is post-tropical. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 01:18, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone Humberto

Humberto is officially post tropical. Harveycane (Talk | Contributions) 03:54, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Another E2 in the Atl this year, wow. Anyways goodbye Humberto, thank you for being a major hurricane. Sandy156 :) 05:02, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

96L.INVEST

AOI: Over Africa

A bit of speculation ahead of time; this isn't officially on the TWO yet, but there are several long-range runs of the models predicting that another wave will follow behind 94L and become something notable down the road. THIS is the future wave you were probably referring to, Peter. And it's one we should definitely watch out for, assuming the long-range model runs do come to pass. Ryan1000 13:41, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

Issa new TWO mention: 0/20. Gonna eat out 94L FASS bro. PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:06, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
Also dem latest GFS runs makin' me crap my pants. Some showing Fabian, Isabel or even Maria repeats. Heck I saw a Katrina in there too. Bro wtf PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:08, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
This seems to be one to watch. If those models come to fruition, we will see the 2nd retirement candidate out of this. I've had enough of devastation though, and hope this can go out to sea. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:38, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

This is the wave the GFS was doomcasting with a few runs yesterday, not 94L, and obviously it's still a long ways ahead but with 94L moistening up the environment and eating up the shear ahead of this wave, there's a very distinct chance this could become a notable storm down the road. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 21:58, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

BROOO DUDE WTF now ppl sayin this has a georges or david vibe to it! What about you? PeterPiper567 (talk) 22:50, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

The latest 18Z GFS run says David 2.0, though personally, I'm unfortunately getting Ivan-like feelings from this...although this may not be as strong as Ivan when it reaches the Antilles, I have the feeling it could go father west through the Caribbean and turn north towards the GOM, in the distant future. Ryan1000 00:32, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

bro what peak do you predict from future humberto PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:55, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

If push comes to shove this might eventually become our second cat 5, but under favorable conditions for this storm down the road, I'm hoping nothing more than a cat 4 (and even then, that would still be bad for the Caribbean). It's looking more and more unrealistic to think that nothing much at all will come from this down the road. Ryan1000 02:42, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

Still 0/20 for now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:49, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

Models appear to be trending further south. Yesterday they showed it over the Bahamas, today the ECMWF keeps it just south of the Bahamas while the GFS keeps it south of Cuba. Of course these are all well over a week from now, many things may change before then. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:44, September 11, 2019 (UTC)

Upped to 0/30. Still pretty scary in the long run, will become either Humberto or Imelda and would continue the "I" curse if 95L is named. ~ Steve 😔 9/11Never forget. 🙏 AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸 19:04, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
Now up to 0/40. Sandy156 :) ~ Remember 9/11 23:42, September 11, 2019 (UTC)

This will probably get Imelda assuming 95L takes Humberto, although it's also got a more ominous track in the long run. Since 94L moistened up the environment ahead of this, and with this expected to move through the Caribbean, this could become a significant system down the road. Ryan1000 03:47, September 12, 2019 (UTC)

Still 0/40, but now it's expected to take a northward turn near the Antilles, possibly being a threat to the U.S. east coast or even Bermuda in the distant future. Still not invested yet though. Ryan1000 13:15, September 12, 2019 (UTC)

10/50. Ryan1000 14:30, September 13, 2019 (UTC)

96L.INVEST

It's been invested and looking like a long-term threat. And considering that PTC 9 is almost certain to become Humberto, I should remind you all to... Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:25, September 13, 2019 (UTC)

20/50. With the recent development happening with the Cape Verde AOI, it is safe to say that the battle for Imelda begins now. (Or if 95L/PTC9 takes its time, this may turn out be the battle for Humberto.) Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:26, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
Actually down to 10/30, I guess it'll develop slower. It's moving pretty fast - might not develop at all until it reaches the Caribbean. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:55, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
Down further to 10/20. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:24, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 0/10, doesn't look like this will be anything anymore. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:13, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

Gone from the TWO. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:54, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

Assuming this is the same wave, it is now moving into the central Caribbean and is back on the TWO with a 10/10 chance of development. Upper-level winds should prevent development though. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:23, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

10L.JERRY

AOI: Near Cape Verdes

New on the outlook, behind the other wave, at 0/20. Maybe we can get Imelda and Jerry back-to-back from these waves. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:28, September 13, 2019 (UTC)

Woah, jumped up to 10/40 just recently, this might actually challenge 96L for which can get to Imelda first. Ryan1000 17:56, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
Everyone now:
JERRY! JERRY! JERRY! JERRY!
PeterPiper567 (talk) 18:11, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
Upped to 10/50, this might actually be Imelda because 96L had a drastic drop in percentage and might not develop until reaching the Caribbean. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:58, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
Upped to 20/60, this'll probably be Imelda. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:25, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 10/60, but Imelda is still possible from this. Maybe THIS will be the "I" storm, so I should remind you all again... Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:10, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

10/70. Likely to become a depression late this week, but at this point it'll probably turn well north of the Antilles. But like Humberto, Bermuda is still in the possible future track of this AOI, and maybe Atlantic Canada. Ryan1000 11:44, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

97L.INVEST

Invested and up to 50/80. Looking likely to be Imelda and model guidance seems to curve this out to sea after passing right by the Leeward Islands. It's also looking possible for Bermuda to be impacted in the long run from this. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:28, September 16, 2019 (UTC)

Initially, that is so, but Dr. Masters made some remarks on this in his latest blog post on Humberto and the rest of the tropics, and he stated that if Humberto moves out to sea fast enough, then high pressure might build in before 97L recurves out to sea from the southern outflow of Humberto and that would bring this closer to the U.S. down the road than the initial guidance models would seem to suggest. Definitely something we should still watch out for down the road. Ryan1000 12:01, September 16, 2019 (UTC)
70/90, this may be Imelda. Whether or not it continues the I curse, probably or probably not, I don't know. Sandy156 :) 00:24, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
Hopefully it will go out to sea. Model guidance seems pretty confident on it recurving and passing through Bermuda territory. Hopefully Ryan's scenario doesn't come true, we don't need another devastating hurricane especially after seeing so many of them the past few years (Matthew, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, Michael, and Dorian). If this does get closer to the U.S. I hope it stays offshore like Earl (2010). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:57, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

We had a somewhat similar situation like this back in 1996 where powerful Hurricane Edouard moved north and then east and out to sea, and Fran followed behind Edouard, only slowly strengthening at first due to the outflow of the former, but high pressure build back in as Edouard left and forced Fran to end up farther west, strengthening to a major hurricane hitting North Carolina, and becoming their costliest hurricane until another female "F" storm (Florence) last year. Though 97L isn't as strong as Fran was by this point, if high pressure builds back in while this storm fails to catch up to Humberto, the U.S. east coast may still be in play down the road from Imelda-to-be. Ryan1000 09:34, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

90/90 now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:06, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten

And a special message from NHC upgrades 97L to a TD. Imelda is coming. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:34, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

The forecast looks evil. Takes this into the Bahamas at 85 kt in 5 days. At this rate, I fear the I-curse may continue for this year too, for most NHC initial forecasts are extremely conservative for this kind of storms. I fear the Bahamas may be up for another major. -- JavaHurricane 15:43, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

God forbid this becomes another destructive storm, but that forecast track is a bit scary. Hope if this becomes either Imelda or Jerry this stays out at sea. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:33, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
This is going to be Jerry now after the Gulf system's unexpected stunt. Hopefully to-be-Jerry curves safely out to sea. The Leeward Islands, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and maybe Bermuda need to watch out in the long run. Hopefully it stays away from the U.S. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:10, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Ever since he debuted in the Atlantic in 1989, Jerry has never really had his time to shine much. His first incarnation caused some minor damage to Texas as a category 1 hurricane, but not much more than that. The previous two incarnations of Jerry in 2013 and 2007 were miserable epic fails, while the 2001 and 1995 incarnations only did minor damage to the Lessers and Florida, respectively. That being said, Jerry looks to be coming back for revenge on his previous flops this time around; like Jas said above, this might not even be Jerry yet, but the first forecast already calls for a 90 mph hurricane by Sunday, and tracking dangerously far west towards the U.S. eastern seaboard. Like I said before with 1996's Edouard being unable to pull Fran OTS with him, Humberto's southern outflow may not be able to reach Jerry before high pressure builds back in to take him to an east coast landfall somewhere. Hopefully it's towards a lesser populated area, and not as strong as Dorian was only a few weeks ago. Ryan1000 22:01, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

M Tropical Tidbits says this is a TSȜeſtikl (talk) 01:52, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

New advisory begs to differ :/ weird, this is the second time ATCF has jumped the gun in as many weeks, following Gabrielle. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:51, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jerry

Per advisory #4. Forecast to level off at 65 kt in 48 hrs and go north of the Bahamas. -- JavaHurricane 09:24, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

The northward turn later on is a little promising, at least for the U.S. east coast, it might go east later on. Ryan1000 09:49, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
Lorena, Imelda, Mario, and Jerry all in a 24-hour span, with Kiko and Humberto already being active... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:58, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
The peak of the season is here. That is insane, though, how almost nothing can turn into this in a matter of just HOURS. They just don't stop coming! TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:18, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

JERRY JERRY JERRY JERRY JERRY the memes are gonna be lit with this one as long as it's not a nothingburger PeterPiper567 (talk) 15:14, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

Jerry's time to shine could be this year. The only time it was a hurricane was in 1989 and this year could be the second time. Like Ryan said above, maybe it's seeking revenge from the miserable failure incarnations of 1995, 2001, 2007, and 2013 (the first two affected land though). Anyway, this looks to be curving away from the U.S. but parts of the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada might still need to watch this one. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:40, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
It has intensified further and is now a strong tropical storm - 60 mph/1000 mbar. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:29, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
Jerry’s projected path kind of reminds me of Jose in 2017. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 02:44, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
Yeah, I'm reminded of Jose too, the projected path north of the Lessers and a sharp northward curve northeast of Bahamas are all very reminiscent of it. It shouldn't get as strong as Jose though unless it somehow pulls off a miracle explosion. Up to 65 mph/997 mbar, likely to become a hurricane tomorrow. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:48, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
70 mph/995 mbar. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 10:47, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Jerry

And it's now a hurricane. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:07, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

And it's the first "Hurricane Jerry" since 1989. At this rate, it could become the strongest Jerry on record. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 16:12, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
Up to 85 mph/982 mbar. It has tied the intensity of its 1989 incarnation and should strengthen further to surpass it and become the strongest "Jerry" ever. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:25, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
And now it is the strongest Jerry ever. 80 kts/979 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:49, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
Whoa, looks like RI is underway! Category 2 now, 90 kts/976 mbar! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:46, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
It may have a chance of becoming a major hurricane if it continues intensifying like that. Sandy156 :) 05:00, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

The strengthening is probably stalling at this point. Now 105 mph, but the pressure is up to 981 mbar. Predicted to gradually weaken after tomorrow but stall in intensity after 3 days. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:01, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Between 96L and the Cape Verde wave

Surprise, surprise. This one, sandwiched in between the two waves, has popped up at 10/20. I highly doubt it'll develop before it likely merges with the wave behind it. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:58, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

I've never seen 3 Cape Verde waves in such close proximity with one another before. I bet you a million bucks we won't get 3 storms from these, one or two of these are going to be eaten up by the other one. Ryan1000 04:49, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
Yeah, I knew this wouldn't develop lol. Down to near 0% for 2 and 5 days as it merges with the wave behind it. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:13, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
Gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:54, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

11L.IMELDA

AOI: West of Florida

Another AOI has appeared in the Gulf at 0/20. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:27, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

Up to 10/30, might have Imelda/Jerry potential. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:13, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 10/20, honestly I don't expect anything more than a short lived TD or name stealer from this. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:10, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 10/10. Probably won't become anything at all at this rate. Ryan1000 11:45, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

Up to 20/20. Sandy156 :) 00:20, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

98L.INVEST

It's also been invested. I don't think it will develop much further before moving inland. But I have a slight feeling it could pull off a surprise and possibly become a brief TD, but I still doubt it. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:57, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

30/30. Oh. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:05, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven

JERRY! JERRY! JERRY! JERRY! Forecast to become Immy or Jerry before moving onshore. Who wins? Let the battle commence! (While big boi Humberto watches from the side) PeterPiper567 (talk) 17:15, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Oh... my... God. Forecast to become a name-stealer, but current satellite pictures show this as a well-organized system. The race for Imelda is on. This is moving slowly though, which makes me fear for another Allison/Harvey scenario as this is likely to become a rain event for the Houston metropolitan area. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:32, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Imelda

Only took 45 minutes.--Isaac829E-Mail 17:56, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Depending on the amount of rainfall from Imelda, she may or may not continue the "I" curse. I hope not, 'cause I want to see Imelda to be used more than once. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:59, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
Wtf happened here?! This system just pulled off an unexpected trick. Now we have a name-stealer... I hoped this newly used "I" name would go to a hurricane but I guess not. 🙁 Maybe...just maybe she can continue the "I" curse if she becomes a devastating flooding disaster, but I hope not. Bringing back my adage just in case. Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:07, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
What's more fascinating is that right now, TD10 has a lower pressure than Imelda. Imelda is at 1009 mb, TD10 is at 1007. Reminds me so much of 2001's Allison though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:09, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall near Freeport, Texas

And Imelda has already made landfall in Freeport. 40 mph, 1005 mbars. Leeboy100Hello! 18:53, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
wat lol already dat woz a quickie innit PeterPiper567 (talk) 18:58, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
I guess the burden is now on my mom's name (Karen) to take one home for the ladies 🙃 --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:15, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

This was at 30/30 and now it’s a tropical storm? Ȝeſtikl (talk) 19:26, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

At least now if the forecast for TD10 verifies, then the name Jerry will go to a hurricane for only the second time ever, following the 1989 debut incarnation. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:27, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Wha...never expected this to steal a name, looks like Imelda will have to wait for 2025 to be something, unless she pulls an Allison and drowns out Houston, hopefully not though. Ryan1000 21:39, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

But considering this is an "I" storm you never know... another Allison could still be in the cards. Forecast to move slowly and weaken pretty slowly. So far it looks like a pathetic name-stealer, but that might change if it pulls an Allison/Harvey... Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:46, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
Pending the TCRs of Chantal, Erin, and Imelda... this is the fourth 35-kt storm of the season. Surely that's a record, right? And in a season that gave us a 160-kt landfalling goliath, too... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:56, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Well, tied with 1933 and 1936, but yes. And the former of those two years had other bad storms anyhow, including the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane, the Outer Banks hurricane, a cat 4 near West Palm Beach, Florida, and two cat 5's in reanalysis. Ryan1000 22:10, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

What in the heck, I just got back from school when Imelda had just appeared out of nowhere, which got an 30/30 chance before forming. Never have expected that formation, it shocked me. Anyway, hopefully Imelda doesn't drench loads of rain in Texas and doesn't pull an Allison. Sandy156 :) 23:23, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Imelda

And now it has weakened to a TD, 35/1007. Sandy156 :) 00:02, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

My college class today was actually cancelled by this storm.😦 And now my yard is starting to flood (flood-zone problems).😨 Maybe I should BEWARE THE "I" OF THE STORM!😱 EDIT: NINE inches (that is about 23 centimeters) of rain has already fallen where I'm at! TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:06, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
Stay safe out there, ChosenWizard! The WPC is now issuing advisories as it remains a flood threat. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:43, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
Currently 30 mph and 1010 mbar. More flooding rain should be expected in the next couple days or so. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:37, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
Pressure dropped to 1008 mbar, probably due to brown ocean effect. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:48, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
From what I have seen on the Weather Channel, it has rained THIRTY-FIVE inches in Winnie (I'm not in Winnie, though). I wonder if that'll bump up Imelda's retirement chances. Wow, just wow. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:38, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

WPC has issued their last advisory but it might continue to be a major rainfall threat during the next day or two. Winnie really got soaked! 😮 People are saying that this could be worse than Harvey in some areas. (Edit: Actually nevermind, it looks like they issued a new advisory. Now 25 mph/1009 mbar.) ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:29, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

Imelda's flooding is absolutely devastating in Southeast Texas...rain totals of 40+ inches in some areas now. The highest I have seen so far is 43.15 inches in Hamshire, TX, and the rain is not expected to subside for several more hours yet. TG 2019 19:32, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Imelda

No longer a TD. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 21:16, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

Sadly, a fatality has been confirmed. A 20 year old was electrocuted by a downed power line in floodwaters in Beaumont. Leeboy100Hello! 21:32, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
Imelda is proof that "name-thief" and "destructive" are not mutually exclusive. :( --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:16, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
That's really true, even name-stealers can be destructive due to flooding and stuff. 🙁 I've heard that total rainfall has exceeded 40 inches in many areas, ranking this among the wettest tropical cyclones in U.S. history. This could actually be devastating enough to be retired. Is it even a coincidence that a weakling that stole the "I" name ended up being devastating? The "I" curse really is a curse it seems... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:13, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
Wow, who knew that a 6 hour TS turned out to be somewhat destructive and have brought flooding to Texas. Another fatality was confirmed after he/she was pulled from a submerged vehicle. Imelda is currently the 7th wettest in the US so far. Sandy156 :) 01:36, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging from Africa

Just noticed this on the 5-day outlook. 0/20, forecast to emerge on Thursday. Dylan's mom's name, anyone? 😛 ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 21:49, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

demands to speak to the manager after not getting cat 5 ever. She will take everyone's houses and kids PeterPiper567 (talk) 03:06, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 0/10, it might actually bust like certain other waves did in the past couple weeks. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:44, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
No longer on the TWO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:24, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Behind Jerry

Another one has appeared on the outlook at 0/20. Either this or the African wave could be Karen. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:39, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

The AOI's "X" has appeared and it's located behind Jerry. Up to 0/30. Now I think this could be Dylan's mom's name. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:45, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
Now 10/30. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:26, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging from Africa (2)

Up on the 5-day outlook at 0/20 and expected to emerge in a few days. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 15:30, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

Up to 0/40, this is looking more likely to be a candidate for Karen or Lorenzo (if the 10/30 system develops first). ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:27, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
Now 0/50. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:14, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
Up to 0/60, this seems to be the most likely candidate for Karen unless the 10/30 system develops first. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:02, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance

Steve's retirements & other things

Explanations of tabs:

  • Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
  • In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
  • Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
  • How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.
Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.

  • Andrea: ~0%, F- - Continued the streak of pre-season storms. However, this was an epic failure, and never became fully tropical. A waste of a name if you ask me. The pre-season formation is the only thing that saved it from receiving the "Z" grade.
  • Barry: 18%, C - A very small chance of retirement due to the flooding it caused in and around Louisiana. Current damage total of >$600 million shouldn't be enough for the U.S. to retire the name, since they usually retire storms that cause more than a billion in damage. But impacts aside, at least we saw an early first hurricane.
  • Three: N/A, Z - If you blinked, you missed it. Incredibly short-lived failure that brought only showers to the Bahamas and Florida.
  • Chantal: ~0%, F - Harmless weak tropical storm. Gets a bit of grading credit for forming unexpectedly out of the blue and lasting a few days, but still a very weak system that never surpassed 40 mph/1009 mb.
  • DORIAN: ~100%, A - An absolute monster! The northern Bahamas (Abacos Islands, Grand Bahama) got absolutely devastated from this 185 mph beast. Retirement is guaranteed due to the impacts to the Bahamas (especially), the U.S., and Atlantic Canada. The grade could have been "S", but it is disqualified from receiving anything higher than "A" due to the horrific devastation it wrought.
  • Erin: ~0%, F- - Another pathetic steal of a name. Even worse than Chantal because this didn't do anything special.
  • Fernand: 9%, E - Short-lived and affected northeastern Mexico. $383 million and at least 1 death shouldn't be enough for retirement.
  • Gabrielle: ~0%, D- - Became a strong TS, but originally had hurricane potential. Well, at least it was a fishspinner and became the strongest female name thus far this year.
  • Humberto: TBA, TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.
  • Imelda: 48%, F- - A weak name-stealer but ended up bringing unusual amounts of rain to Texas, exceeding 40 inches in spots. Flooding was described as "worse than Harvey" in some places. The "I" curse is real. This could actually get the boot...
  • Jerry: TBA, TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.

Intensity colors: TD/SD, TS/SS (40-50 mph), TS/SS (60-70 mph), C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 (160-180 mph), 185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background, the color for "C5" was made more stark due to the severely of such storms, and a new color was added for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) so they would not be in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms that might be Category 6s if the category was introduced. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.


Retirement percentage colors: ~0%, 0%, or N/A; 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%; ~100%, 100%; TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.


Grading colors: S, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.


RETIRED: DORIAN
Likely Retired:
Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: Imelda
Likely Staying:
Staying: Andrea, Barry (leaning towards "Likely Staying"), Chantal, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle


Projected retirements for currently active storms:

  • Humberto - Staying, unless Bermuda impacts rival Fabian.
  • Jerry - Staying, assuming it goes out to sea and avoids land.

Retirement chance ranges for:

  • "Retired": 80-100%
  • "Likely Retired": 60-79%
  • "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
  • "Likely Staying": 20-39%
  • "Staying": 0-19%

All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Retired, Likely Retired, and Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

Dorian (RETIRED):

  • Dylan
  • Darren
  • Dominic
  • Diego
  • Damien
  • Derek
  • Dale
  • Dustin
  • Drake
  • Davis

Imelda (Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired):

  • Ivy
  • Ina
  • Iliana
  • Indira
  • Ivan(n)a
  • Imogen
  • Irina
  • Ilyssa
  • Isa
  • Iva

Predicted final replacements to be announced in spring 2020: Dorian > Dominic, Imelda (not certain though) > Ivana

  • I expect that this season will end at or around Nestor.
  • It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Lorenzo or Melissa, or go further to Olga or Pablo.
  • Rebekah or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Karen or before is also unlikely.
  • It's likely we will see 2-3 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. The first of these systems is Dorian at the end of August-start of September, while the second one could occur by the end of September. A 3rd one for October or even November is possible.

  • Chances that Karen will be used: 99.9% - Almost certain to form, might be seen by the end of this month.
  • Chances that Lorenzo will be used: 84% - Expected to come in October, or even by the end of this month if an explosion occurs.
  • Chances that Melissa will be used: 68% - If it does form, I expect to see it in October, or even in November.
  • Chances that Nestor will be used: 50% - I'd give this a coin toss of happening. Will most likely be a November storm or post-season surprise if it does come.
  • Chances that Olga will be used: 36% - We will possibly not get as far as we did last year, although there's still a chance.
  • Chances that Pablo will be used: 25% - I will be a bit surprised if we get up to here.
  • Chances that Rebekah will be used: 12% - Tying 2017's named storms is highly unlikely to occur this year.
  • Chances that Sebastien will be used: 7% - The chances have dwindled into the single digits. Environmental conditions this year should not support this much activity.
  • Chances that Tanya will be used: 1.5% - The Atlantic will have to really explode, contrary to forecasts for this season. Not going to happen.
  • Chances that Van will be used: 0.1% - Not going to happen either. A strange miracle will have to take place to somehow get this far.
  • Chances that Wendy or beyond will be used: ~0% - I would have a better chance at getting struck by lightning or even winning the lottery than the Atlantic getting this far in 2019.

~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:12, August 24, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 06:09, September 20, 2019 (UTC))

Sandy's retirements and grades

My turn to do retirements and grades!

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%/0.1%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%, TBA, Fail%, N/A)

(Category colors: PTC, TD/SD, TS/SS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

(Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z, TBA)

  • Andrea: F, 0% — Was notable for continuing the off-season streak forming in May and the sudden formation due to recon, however it was a weak and short-lived storm that never turned fully tropical. The off-season formation saved it from getting a Z.
  • Barry: C+, 20% — A July hurricane that made landfall in Louisiana, inflicting >$600 million (USD) and however only caused an indirect death. Barry was also the wettest tropical cyclone in Arkansas, dropping over 16 in (421 mm) in the state. I doubt Barry would go for its impacts since the WMO typically retire storms w/ a higher damage and death toll.
  • Three: Z, N/A — A short-lived and weak tropical depression. Do I even have to explain this further?
  • Chantal: E, 0% — A weak fish that formed out of nowhere which surprised most of us. It held on for its life for 3 days, earning a E.
  • Dorian: A, 100% — Wow, I’m shocked. This 185 mph monster completely devastated the Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands, leaving behind catastrophic damage in its wake. There is no way that Dorian will stay after its severe impacts not only in the Bahamas but also the U.S and Atlantic Canada.
  • Erin: F, 0% — A weak storm that did nothing special despite being stronger than Chantal.
  • Fernand: E, 2.5% — A 50 mph tropical storm that struck Mexico; only inflicted $383 million and caused 1 death.
  • Gabrielle: D-, 0% — Failed to become a hurricane, but was a strong tropical strong at least.
  • Humberto: A, 1% – This system alone is the first ever Major Hurricane Humberto and prevented a 2007 repeat from happening. Damages in Bermuda are minimal.
  • Jerry: TBA – Currently active.
  • Imelda: F, 50% – A pop-up 6 hour TS that drenched loads of rain in Texas, becoming the 7th wettest US tropical cyclone on record. Assuming the damages are unknown and it caused major flooding to Texas, this has a 50/50 chance of going.

Retirement summary:

Definitely Retired (>95%): Dorian

Most Likely Retired (75-90%): None

Likely Retired (55-70%): None

Tossup (45-50%): Imelda

Likely Not Retired (25-40%): None

Most Likely Not Retired (5-20%): Barry

Definitely Not Retired (<5%): Andrea, Chantal, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto

Name chances of being used:

  • Karen: 100% - May be coming in the latter parts of September or October.
  • Lorenzo: 85% - Likely going to form, may be coming in October.
  • Melissa: 65% - Likely going to form, may be coming in October or November.
  • Nestor: 50% - Tossup, but likely going to end at this name.
  • Olga: 35% - I doubt that we'll surpass 2018, although it still has a chance.
  • Pablo: 20% - I doubt we'll see Pablo also.
  • Rebakah: 7.5% - I would be in total shock in this name is used this year.
  • Sebastien: 2.5% - Nope, we won't be seeing Sebastien this year.
  • Tanya: 1% - Extremely doubt that this year will be active as 1995.
  • Van: 0.01% - Very extremely doubt that this year will be the third-active Atl season ever.
  • Wendy and beyond: 0% - Heck no, there's no way that we will reach Wendy and/or the Greek.


That’s all for now folks!

Sandy156 :) 19:52, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

[Updated as of 05:14, September 20, 2019 (UTC)]

Beatissima's Retirement Predictions

  • SS Andrea - 0%
  • C1 Barry - 10%
  • TD Three - N/A
  • TS Chantal - 0%
  • C5 Dorian - 100%
  • TS Erin - 0%
  • TS Fernand - 5%
  • TS Gabrielle - 0%
  • C3 Humberto - TBD
  • TS Imelda - 50%
  • C2 Jerry - currently active
  • Karen - Formation: 100%
  • Lorenzo - Formation: 90%
  • Melissa - Formation: 75%
  • Nestor - Formation: 50%
  • Olga - Formation: 20%
  • Pablo - Formation: 10%
  • Rebekah - Formation: 5%
  • Sebastien - Formation: 2%
  • Tanya - Formation: 1%
  • Van - Formation: 0%
  • Wendy - Formation: 0%
  • Greeks - Formation: 0%

Beatissima (talk) 22:31, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

ChowKam's Retirement Predictions

Gotta rate these juicy storms...

  • Andrea: 0% - Was weak. But still, a pre-season storm is nice.
  • Barry: 5% - A nice, weird early season hurricane. Damages shouldn't warrant retirement.
  • Three: N/A - While technically a failure, it was a nice depression to watch.
  • Chantal: 0% - Weak, but was a surprise weird formation. Lasted a bit.
  • Dorian: 100% - This monstrous 185-mph-storm was simply too beefy for the Bahamas. While nice to track, I hope the Bahamas can recover quickly from this storm. They need a rest from hurricanes like this.
  • Erin: 0% - Nice to have a storm, but it simply was not juicy enough. No land impacts. Alternate reaction: [1] - Erin: 0:14 Wind Shear: 0:27
  • Fernand: 5% - Surprisingly costly, but luckily not too bad. One unfortunate death. Juicier than expected.
  • Gabrielle: 0% - No land interaction, no retirement. Interesting degeneration and reformation.
  • Humberto: N/A - Currently active.
  • Imelda: N/A - Currently active.
  • Jerry: N/A - Currently active.

Note: I am rather extreme with my retirement predictions - if a storm seems unlikely to be retired, it won't be retired. If a storm seems likely to be retired, it will be retired.

ChowKam2002 (talk) 16:06, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Harveycane's predictions and grades

Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C5 (185+ mph)

Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, Z-, TBA

Formation chance/retirement percentages:

  • 0%
  • 0.001-0.9% (Nearly 0%)
  • 1-9% (Extremely unlikely)
  • 10-19% (Very unlikely)
  • 20-29% (Unlikely)
  • 30-39% (Somewhat unlikely)
  • 40-49% (Medium)
  • 50-59% (Somewhat likely)
  • 60-69% (Likely)
  • 70-79% (Very likely)
  • 80-89% (Extremely likely)
  • 90-99% (Nearly certain)
  • 100% (Certain)

  • Andrea: 0%, F - Weak, forgettable, short lived. Need I say more?
  • Barry: 17%, C- - One of the ugliest "hurricanes" I've ever seen, for that reason it gets a C-. However, at least we got a hurricane.
  • Three: N/A%, Z - Sorry, but you were one pathetic storm. We all thought we would see Chantal from this, but nope.
  • Chantal: 0%, F - After over a month and a half of waiting for the next named storm to form, all we get is this forgettable failure. However, its still better than nothing.
  • Dorian: 100%, A- - I can safely say for sure that this is going this year. The Bahamas were ANNIHILATED by this storm, as well as the US and Canada. Gets an A- for defying predictions of it being a fail and became a category 5 hurricane, but at the same time damages limit the grade form going any higher. (Replacement name: Diego)
  • Erin: 0%, F- - Basically a "pop up storm" during Dorian that did nothing but waste a name. Don't take the Eastern Pacifc's habits with you next time.
  • Fernand: 6%, E - Short lived tropical storm that caused flooding in northeastern Mexico. Impacts are not enough to warrant retirement.
  • Gabrielle: 0%, E - Had hurricane potential, didn't reach it. I had higher expectations for this.
  • Humberto: TBA, TBA - Currently active. As of now, it is threatening Bermuda. Hopefully impacts aren't severe (which it shouldn't).
  • Imelda: Up to 80%*, F - Not only it was a prime example of a name stealer, but a destructive one as well. Caused record breaking flooding in parts of Texas, but damage toll remains unknown. The only reason why it didn’t get a Z grade because of its surprise formation.
  • Jerry: TBA, TBA - Currently active.

* Imelda’s damage toll remains TBD, thus it says up to 80%. Overall season rating (tentative): C - Despite being crappy in the first part of the year, it managed to pull a 2018 and start a massive increase in activity. It can be near average by the end of the season.

Future storm chances (SUBJECT TO CHANGE):

  • Fernand: 100% - May appear around peak season.
  • Gabrielle: 100% - Will form sometime around the peak of the season.
  • Humberto: 100% - We could possibly see this in late September.
  • Imelda: 91% - Can form by early October, as long as the uptick in activity actually happens.
  • Jerry: 78% - Unless activity is doomed to be inactive the whole year, we will most likely see this.
  • Karen: 63% - This is around where my certainty of these numbers begins to fall. We may see this or not depending on the basin's performance.
  • Lorenzo: 45% - This is probably where we will end this year, presuming that the season will have a near average September-October.
  • Melissa: 32% - May come as a late season surprise.
  • Nestor: 25% - Storm names from here are unlikely to be used. Unless we get an "explosion" in activity, this is unlikely.
  • Olga: 17% - Unfortunately, we may not go this far at this rate. Reaching up to 2018's levels of activity is very unlikely.
  • Pablo: 9% - I don't think we will get here this season.
  • Rebekah: 4% - Very, very unlikely.
  • Sebastien: 1% - You will have to defy climatology to get here at this point.
  • Tanya: 0.5% - Again, you can't get here without defying climatology.
  • Van, Wendy and beyond: 0% - If you think we will get to here you are crazy. Jk, but seriously, it is NOT likely at all to get this far into the season.

Harveycane (Talk | Contributions) 08:46, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

Jas's shenanigans: retirement predictions, storm grades, etc.

Retirement chances:

  • Andrea - 0% - Should be back in 2025.
  • Barry - 3% - Had some impacts, but honestly Barry is here to stay.
  • Chantal - 0% - Thanks for waking up the Atlantic, but will remain in the lists.
  • Dorian - 99.9% - The impacts in The Bahamas would be enough to warrant the retirement of this historic storm.
  • Erin - 0% - Just no.
  • Fernand - 10% - Maybe, just maybe. Mexico is still notorious for their record in retiring names of destructive storms. 
  • Gabrielle - 1% - Thanks for trying to be a hurricane, but Gab shall return in 2025.

Storm grades:

(Highest is A+++, lowest is Z)

  • Andrea - F - A preseason storm, and that's it. Epic fail though.
  • Barry - C - Had some impacts, but surprised me for reaching hurricane status.
  • Chantal - L - A sacrificial lamb, I guess. Took the L to pave the way for other storms.
  • Dorian - B- - If there's something which can be called a "beautiful" disaster, it would be this one. Beautiful to see from outer space, but a monster on the Earth's surface. Would have been A+++ had it not affected The Bahamas, but since it wreaked havoc that country (at least $7 billion damages, 50+ deaths, 1,300 missing), its grade has been brought down to B minus. 
  • Erin - Z - Very unremarkable, sorry.
  • Fernand - F - Not really a fail (since it affected land), but very irrelevant to be honest.
  • Gabrielle - C- - A good distraction from the freak that is Dorian, but otherwise not that notable.

Storm formation percentages:

(Some names include wild guesses on their intensities)

  • Humberto - 100% - Must form. Probably a hurricane, might affect land.
  • Imelda - 100% - Must form. Might be a major though, and might affect land too.
  • Jerry - 95% - Must form. Probably a major, might also affect land areas.
  • Karen - 90% - Most likely to form. Probably a major, might affect land.
  • Lorenzo - 70% - Most likely to form. Probably the final name, if not Melissa, Nestor or Olga. Category 1 or a strong TS, will stay at sea.
  • Melissa - 55% - Maybe yes, maybe no. Strong TS to minimal Category 1, may affect the U.S.
  • Nestor - 45% - Maybe yes, maybe no. Will likely peak as a TS if it forms.
  • Olga - 25% - Not really. However, if it forms, it might be a subtropical one.
  • Pablo - 15% - Not really. Possibly a subtropical storm or a TS if (and only if) used.
  • Rebekah - 2% - No. But there's still a chance. Would be a tropical storm at best.
  • Sebastien - 0.2% - Nah. Though I lowkey hope that this year would go all the way up to this name.
  • Tanya - 0.01% - Nah. I just don't see Tanya being used this year. But there's still a very slight chance.
  • Van - 0% - Nah. Kinda same with Tanya, but will realistically not be used this season.
  • Wendy, Alpha and beyond - 0% - Nah. Atlantic needs to be on steroids in order for this name to be used this year. Won't happen at all.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:32, August 28, 2019 (UTC). Last edited and updated by Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:34, September 13, 2019 (UTC).

Lee’s retirement predictions

Might as well start this now, with Dorian becoming more and more of a threat. I won’t be doing ratings this year.

  • Andrea- 0%: It was nice that we were able to keep the pre-season streak going, but Andrea didn’t do anything, so nope.
  • Barry- 20%: Caused some damage and flooding, but I don’t see it going anywhere.
  • Chantal- 0%: Nope
  • Dorian- 100%: Tied with the Labor Day Hurricane for strongest landfalling hurricane in the Atlantic, decimating parts of the Bahamas in the process. Caused some impacts in the US and Atlantic Canada as well, and even if retirement isn’t requested by either country, the absolutely catastrophic damage done by the 185 mph monster in the Bahamas is more than enough to guarantee Dorian’s retirement in 2020. Replacement name picks: Dylan, Devon, Davin, Dax, Darrell, Dale, Doug, Derek (Lot of options to choose from with the letter D)
  • Erin- 0%: Not going anywhere.
  • Fernand- 1%: Damages in Mexico seem to be minor.
  • Gabrielle- 0%: See Erin.
  • Humberto- TBA Currently active
  • Imelda- TBA Currently active Could cause some flooding in Texas, so we’ll just have to wait and see.
  • Jerry- TBA Currently active

Leeboy100Hello! 21:59, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

IbAHAn1829's/The Chosen Wizard's Name Retirement Chances

Atlantic Hurricane:

The month of September featured many storms...

  • Subtropical Storm Faildrea - Nice job that you formed *ahem* BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED AGAIN! Seriously, so many pre-season storms for me, almost TOO much. Plus, 40 mph for like 18 hours won't do it for me. (0%)
  • Hurricane Barry - Flooded areas inland under its ginormous blanket of rain, of course there's gonna be a retirement chance, albeit a small one. (20%)
  • Tropical Storm Chantal - ATL: How far north do you want to form? Chantal: Yes. Polar Bears: Well, we're screwed. (0%)
  • Hurricane Dorian - Hulking category 5 hurricane that almost wiped out some of the Bahamian islands. The name will be retired. (99%)
  • Tropical Storm Erin Failed - Nothing. (0%)
  • Tropical Storm Fernand - Made landfall on Mexico, that's it. It also rained a lot. (1%)
  • Tropical Storm Gabrielle - Half-failed because although it persisted in the wind shear, it also never became a hurricane. (0%)
  • Hurricane Humberto - Threatening Bermuda. (??%)
  • Tropical Storm Imelda - Rained a lot. (??%)
  • Tropical Storm Jerry - Something to be on the lookout for. (??%)

TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 14:07, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

PhTracking's Retirement Predictions and Grading

Welp, might as well make one of these grades and retirement predictions. Grades run from F- to A+.

  • Andrea - Cool pre-season storm that continued a 4 year streak, however, it only lasted 18 hours, and was also a 40 mph subtropical fail. Just another good name put to bad use. (0% retirement, D)
  • Barry - A July hurricane, made landfall while peaking. Caused floods inland. Ugly with an exposed circulation, only lasted 6 hours as a hurricane. (20% retirement, C)
  • 03L - ...why? (N/A retirement, F-)
  • Chantal - Weak storm, formed at a high latitude. Was a surprise, but a failure nonetheless. (0% retirement, D-)
  • Dorian - Costliest disaster in Bahamian history. 55 reported direct deaths according to Wikipedia with likely a lot more. At least $7.5 billion in damages. Also affected Atlantic Canada; retirement is imminent. Oh, and all the nasty things it did lowered its grade. (100% retirement, B)
  • Erin - An absolute failure of a storm. Exposed LLCC, was projected to form EARLIER than Dorian. The only thing Erin is important for is to boost the storm totals. (0% retirement, F)
  • Fernand - Weak and short-lived storm in the gulf, at least not a 40 mph fail. Oh, and it actually does have quite a bit of convection, so that's a plus. (1% retirement, C-)
  • Gabrielle - Strong tropical storm that degenerated into a RL once, also sort of formed in the MDR. Cool fish storm, but stayed as a TS. (0% retirement, C+)
  • Humberto - Major that has recently affected Bermuda and could cause retirement. (TBD retirement, TBD)
  • Imelda - Currently active over Texas, could be stalling? (TBD retirement, TBD)
  • Jerry - Currently active storm. (TBD retirement, TBD)

phtracking 06:22, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions

List 5 has never gone a single season without having at least 1 retired name since 1979, and this year is no exception...nonetheless, I, Ryan Grand, will make my retirement speech once again:

  • Andrea - 0% - Well hey, you gotta give her credit for giving the Atlantic a record 5 consecutive years with a pre-season storm, but that aside, it was just a minor rainshower or wave kickup to Bermuda.
  • Barry - 15% - Caused somewhat extensive damage and flooding in parts of the south, but it probably won't cut for retirement.
  • Chantal - 0% - Not a ChanCEtal (forgive the pun, couldn't resist).
  • Dorian - 100% - Although Dorian turned east before causing significant damage to the U.S, he caused up to 7 billion dollars in damage and killed at least 44 people in the Bahamas, making Dorian the costliest storm in the Bahamas's history and the deadliest hurricane to hit the archapelago in 93 years, since the 1926 Nassau hurricane, which killed over 250 people in the nation's capital. That will guarantee his retirement next year.
  • Erin - 0% - Like Chantal, no.
  • Fernand - 22% - Actually, scratch my previous remarks, Fernand actually caused extensive flooding in some areas of Tamaulipas, with a damage bill of 383 million USD and 1 death. Still, Mexico has snubbed worse storms than Fernand, and he will probably stay for 2025.
  • Gabrielle - 0% - Turned north too soon and probably won't affect land.
  • Humberto - 0% - Unless reports change later on, it looks like Bermuda got off easy from Humberto.
  • Imelda - 35% - Caused heavy flooding in parts of the Lone Star State, in some areas worse than Harvey in 2017, but it was more localized and it might not be retired for that, like how Amelia of 1978 and Claudette of 1979 caused heavy but localized flooding and weren't retired. Still has an outside shot though.
  • Jerry - ?? - A currently small but semi-strong hurricane, it might make it to Bermuda as it later recurves out to sea.

Ryan1000 22:26, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Ȝeſtikl's Retirement Chances and Grades

  • Andrea - 0% > D > Didn't affect land. 
  • Barry - 25% > B > Impacts not enough for retirement.
  • Three - 0% > F > Short-lived TD that showered Florida and the Bahamas.
  • Chantal - 0% > D- > See Andrea.
  • Dorian - 95% > C+ > I think this one is self-explanatory.
  • Erin - 0% > D- > See Andrea.
  • Fernand - 6% > D- > Impacted Mexico as a Tropical Storm.
  • Gabrielle - 0% > D > See Andrea.
  • Humberto - 6% > A > Impacted Bermuda.
  • Jerry - 0% > B > Looks to brush the Antilles and turn north.
  • Imelda - 48% > D > Lots of rainfall.
  • Karen - 
  • Lorenzo - 
  • Melissa - 

Ȝeſtikl (talk) 20:36, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

TG's Retirements at a glance

Retirement percentage colors: ~0%, 0%, or N/A; 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%; ~100%, 100%; TBA

  • Andrea - 0% - F: Although Andrea was a pre-season storm, it was pretty much garbage.
  • Barry - 20 - C-: Barry thankfully didn't live up to its forecasts, and if it did, the chances of retirement would be much higher than 20%. Barry didn't look too great, but it did at least reach hurricane strength. With damages being around $600 million and a low death toll, it is unlikely that Barry is retired.
  • Chantal - 0% - F: Another failicia.
  • Dorian - 100% - A+: Not given A+ because of damages or deaths, but in regards to the absolute intensity of this storm. Dorian was the definition of a monster, stronger than Irma even, and we thought that no storm could've topped that in the near future, but here we are with Dorian. 185/910. It's hard to believe. It is by far the costliest storm to ever strike the Bahamas, and the most powerful landfalling system in decades. Good riddance, Dorian.
  • Erin - 0% - F: Lol no, see you in 2025.
  • Fernand - 15 - D+: A sad BoC storm that produced quite a bit of damage, and a few deaths unfortunately. However, $383 million in damages most likely does not warrant retirement.
  • Gabrielle - 0% - D-: Gabrielle was just another storm, not too much interesting about it.
  • Humberto - 5% - A-: Our second major, and to be honest, a pretty interesting storm by its track. Impacted Bermuda, but not enough to have major damages.
  • Imelda - 50% - D-: Imelda was one of the wettest TCs on record in the US, and the 4th wettest in Texas, with rainfall totals of over 40 inches. Areas in Southeast Texas received devastating flooding, but due to these impacts being more localized than Harvey, the chances of Imelda being retired is the flip of a coin. It's too early to tell, but once damages come out, the chances will either be upped or lowered.
  • Jerry - 0% - TBD: Currently active.

Retirements summed up:

  • Will be retired (80-100%): Dorian
  • Maybe retired (50-80%): Imelda
  • Slight chance (20-50%): Barry
  • Will not be retired (0-20%): All other storms

Owen's Retirement Predictions:

I figure it is time to release what I'm thinking. 

Seasonal breakdown: 

The storms for which I have given 0% do not require much of an explanation. Names in bold are those with at least 50% chance of being retired. 

  • Andrea - 0%
  • Barry - 10% - The ~$600M USD damage total is nothing to cast off as minimal, but even Hurricane Juan of 1985 brought a much larger damage toll of $1.5 billion and was snubbed. 
  • Chantal - 0% 
  • Dorian - 100% - The damage in the Bahamas was catastrophic, and easily made Dorian the worst hurricane they've ever seen.  I expect the death toll will reach into the thousands. 
  • Erin - 0%
  • Fernand - 15% - Over $300M USD in damages from extensive flooding, but likely won't be enough. I give a slightly higher percentage to him due to Mexico's slight unpredictability. 
  • Gabrielle - 0%
  • Humberto - 10% - Bermuda seems to have made it out alright, with no deaths reported. This was no Fabian. 
  • Imelda - 60% - Catastrophic flooding reported in Texas, with some areas even noting it was 'worse than Harvey' but it does appear that the flooding was a bit more localized. Once damage estimates begin rolling in, I will make an adjustment to my preliminary estimate. 
  • Jerry - TBA - Currently active

Replacement names: 

This category is specific for names above with at least 25% chance of being retired in the spring of 2020. The name in italic is the one I predict will replace the name should it face removal by the World Meteorological Organization. 

Retiree candidate #1 -> Dorian

  • Damien
  • Declan
  • Derek
  • Diego
  • Dylan

Retiree candidate #2 -> Imelda

  • Ilysia
  • Ilyssa
  • Imelia
  • Imogen
  • Ivy

Owen 04:55, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Replacement names

Male "D" names (For Dorian)

Since Dorian absolutely slaughtered the Abaco Islands as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record, it's safe to assume that....erhm, Dorian Gray is our first guaranteed retirement candidate. That being said, what are your thoughts on replacement names? Here are some, copied from Don in 2017 (which had no real chance to be retired anyways):

  • Dylan
  • Diego
  • Damien
  • Drake
  • Derek
  • Dale
  • Dexter
  • Drew
  • Darren
  • Daryl
  • Dominic
  • Draco
  • Dante
  • Devan
  • Davion

Obviously Dylan should be our top pick, but Darren, Derek, Dante, Davion, Dexter, Diego, ect, are good too. A lot of good male "D" names are available. Ryan1000 12:05, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

:') --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:25, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
Dylan would be really excited if his name was chosen lol. I don't know if they will chose Drake due to the famous singer/rapper of the same name. I suspect that the NHC will choose something like Damien, Dominic, Darren, Dale, or Derek for the 2025 list. Maybe Dylan is possible too but I have more of a feeling that those other names might be picked instead. I would love it if Dylan was the choice though. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 22:45, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

Delany, Darcy, Dionysis, Derry, Dagobert, Doug, Declan. Beatissima (talk) 01:26, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Dominic, Darren, Desmond and Dale are okay, but my top 4 right now: Drew, Damien, Derek, and Dylan (my top pick). Dan would be a good pick too (though it sounds like a shortened version of EPac's Daniel). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:36, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
EPac has Douglas, but I went ahead and put Doug, anyway. I think there's a precedent for different forms of a name being used simultaneously, but I can't remember the specific examples. Beatissima (talk) 01:44, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

There are many examples of two names being on the Atlantic and EPac lists at the same time that are similar to each other, I mentioned this before with Matthew in 2016 (it was replaced with Martin itself which is a variation of the EPac's Marty on list 1). Also, David was retired after 1979 and replaced with Danny while Daniel was in the EPac at that same time and both names are still in use today, as well as 1999's Floyd being retired and replaced with Franklin while Frank was already in the EPac and both names are still in use today. So Doug and Dan are definitely possibilities, but Dylan is still my top pick. Ryan1000 02:26, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Another few suggestions I have are Donovan, Devin/Devon, and Desmond. TG 2019 13:50, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

If it would be The Bahamas that gets impacted the most, Dominic/Declan/Donovan/Dan/Dale are the best possible replacement names. If it would be the U.S., they might go for Diego/Derek/Dylan/Darren/Drew. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Strongly disagree with Anon 2.0 here. I think there is a theme per naming list every year. The names used this year have a very urban, diverse feel to them and the replacement names usually reflect that, even the ones picked by the US which always tend towards the old fashioned side in most cases. Here's my take on this dilemma based on what I think each country would go for should they request retirement:
  • Bahamas: Dante, Deshawn, Declan, Dominic
  • USA: Dylan, Derek, Darren, Diego

Dante is a name commonly used among Black people as well as Dorian so I won't be surprised if that ends up being the replacement name, also given the urban feel to this naming list. More British-y sounding names like Declan (O'Donnelly) and Dominic (Raab) are possible if Bahamas is picking. Diversity also is key to this list as a whole so I highly doubt they would choose a name common among baby boomer, white Americans, unlike, say last year's list. There are mostly Gen X and Millennial names here. The mix is crucial. So I personally would say Dante is my first choice. Diego would be acceptable too and likely would only fit in this Atlantic list. PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:50, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Well, I concur. Dante and Diego would sound good in this list, knowing that this is the most diverse of the six being used by NHC. (Though I'm still kinda wondering why did you say that you disagree with me when you put the very same names that I listed there, save for Drew for the U.S. and Dante/Dan/Dale/Donovan in the names that Bahamas would possibly propose as replacement/s for Dorian). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:13, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
because you didn't mention dante or diego. I actually see either of those two being used, dante especially if the bahamas is requesting retirement. Dante is common among both black and hispanic populations, bahamas is mostly black and it'll only fit in well with this diverse naming list. PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:52, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Considering the Bahamas will most likely make the case, Dante would be a likely choice from them. Diego and Dominic, or even Donovan are possibilities too, though I would still personally prefer Dylan. Ryan1000 22:26, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Personally I'd still prefer Dan (given the fact that NHC chose Martin which is quite similar to Marty), but at this point I can see Diego replacing it (a name which I actually put in my post; I edited it even before PeterPiper replied and disagreed with my comment: I put mine at 14:14 UTC of August 31, PeterPiper replied at 16:50 UTC of August 31). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:10, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Some more that haven't been mentioned:

  • Darius
  • Denzel
  • Darnell
  • Dax
  • Delmar
  • Denny

I particualrly like Dax and Denzel. --Whiplash (talk) 00:15, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Female "I" Names (Potentially for Imelda)

Despite the fact that it peaked as a very short-lived, weak TS, it's producing catastrophic flooding in Texas that has been described as "worse than Harvey" in some spots. This could actually have a chance of retirement in my opinion. What names would you guys suggest? Here's mine:

  • Ivy
  • Ina
  • Iliana
  • Indira
  • Ivan(n)a
  • Imogen
  • Irina
  • Ilyssa
  • Isa
  • Iva

~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:37, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

I would like to add Ivonne and Inga to that list as well. Ivy, however, definitely fits into this list much better, and would be a top pick, most likely. TG 2019 00:59, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Imma, as in "Imma bout to run out of ideas for names that start with 'I'". Beatissima (talk) 03:13, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Ivy and Ina/Inna are my top picks, but Iva, Ivonne, Imogen, Ignatia/Ignacia, Inga, Irina & Ita may be chosen too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 04:54, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Bad Replacement Names

Just for fun.

D: Dick, Dukey, Dilbert, Dobby, Dong, Danger. Beatissima (talk) 01:31, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Would be Donald for me. Not only because of the U.S. President, but also because of Don in list 3. But we'll never know... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
"Hurricane Dick is so big" ... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:41, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
My pick would be Dooley, after that guy from King of the Hill. Send Help Please (talk) 09:40, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
Donkey Kong. Beatissima (talk) 23:04, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

I: Ivanka

Post-season Changes

Name Operational Intensity and Duration Reanalysis Intensity and Duration TCR Release Date
Andrea 40 mph, 1006 mbars, May 20-21 40 mph, 1006 mbars, May 20-21 August 6, 2019
Barry 75 mph, 991 mbars, July 11-15 N/A N/A
Three 35 mph, 1012 mbars, July 22-23 35 mph, 1013 mbars, July 22-23 August 19, 2019
Chantal 40 mph, 1009 mbars, August 21-24 N/A N/A
Dorian 185 mph, 910 mbars, Aug. 24-Sept. 7 N/A N/A
Erin 40 mph, 1005 mbars, August 26-29 N/A N/A
Fernand 50 mph, 1000 mbars, September 3-5 N/A N/A
Gabrielle 65 mph, 995 mbars, September 3-6/6-10 N/A N/A
Humberto 125 mph, 951 mbars, September 13-20 N/A N/A
Jerry 105 mph, 976 mbars, September 17- N/A N/A
Imelda 40 mph, 1005 mbars, September 17-19 N/A N/A

First TCR of the season is up, for Andrea. Lasted for 18 hours before dissipating.--Isaac829E-Mail 17:57, August 6, 2019 (UTC)

Added the table for reference. Doesn't appear like there were any notable changes to Andrea, besides the advisory times (advisories were operationally issued at 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC, but NHC just put it to 1800 UTC on the 20th, or 2 PM EDT) for convenience. Ryan1000 20:47, August 6, 2019 (UTC)
Three is also out too, since NHC doesn't have as much work this month.--Isaac829E-Mail 20:18, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Pressure got nerfed by 1 mbar. Ryan1000 20:31, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

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