|Monthly Archives:Pre-season-July, August, September, October|
Storm Event Archives:Dorian, Imelda, Lorenzo
We're going to make the 2019 forum slightly ahead of time, but we already have the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific betting pools up, with some slight changes. In any instance, this year is using list 5, the one Atlantic naming list that has never gone one single season of usage without having at least 1 retired name since the modern naming lists since 1979, and has the most retired names from any 1979-today naming list, with 13. My personal predictions are 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and maybe a category 5 or two. I doubt the El Nino we saw rise up last year will last long or that strongly into 2019, not to want a bad season, but it's very possible. Ryan1000 03:52, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
- I also think the El Nino won't last as long, but I do think it will last around February or March, and then a warm neutral for most of the season. However, I also believe El Nino effects will linger int he Atlantic for most of the season, i.e., strong upper-wind shear. With that being said, I think the 2019 AHS will be near-neutral season with 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. I don't expect a C5 this upcoming season, but I do expect 1 retired name, maybe even no names being retired.
- While I personally think the name list has no correlation to the upcoming season, I just hope it has at least one major hurricane, lol. I think 2019 will be slightly below to near average. - PORYGONAL 13:18, November 28, 2018 (UTC)
As the season winds down, is it possible that we'll see Sebastien or even Tanya? ~ Steve 15:13, November 1, 2019 (UTC)
Retirements at a glance
Steve's retirements & other things
Explanations of tabs:
- Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
- In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
- Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
- How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.
Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.
Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.
- Andrea: ~0%, F- - Continued the streak of pre-season storms. However, this was an epic failure, and never became fully tropical. A waste of a name if you ask me. The pre-season formation is the only thing that saved it from receiving the "Z" grade.
- Barry: 18%, C - A very small chance of retirement due to the flooding it caused in and around Louisiana. Current damage total of >$600 million shouldn't be enough for the U.S. to retire the name, since they usually retire storms that cause more than a billion in damage. But impacts aside, at least we saw an early first hurricane.
- Three: N/A, Z - If you blinked, you missed it. Incredibly short-lived failure that brought only showers to the Bahamas and Florida.
- Chantal: ~0%, F - Harmless weak tropical storm. Gets a bit of grading credit for forming unexpectedly out of the blue and lasting a few days, but still a very weak system that never surpassed 40 mph/1009 mb.
- DORIAN: ~100%, A - An absolute monster! The northern Bahamas (Abacos Islands, Grand Bahama) got absolutely devastated from this 185 mph beast. Retirement is guaranteed due to the impacts to the Bahamas (especially), the U.S., and Atlantic Canada. The grade could have been "S", but it is disqualified from receiving anything higher than "A" due to the horrific devastation it wrought.
- Erin: ~0%, F- - Another pathetic steal of a name. Even worse than Chantal because this didn't do anything special.
- Fernand: 9%, E - Short-lived and affected northeastern Mexico. $213 million and at least 1 death shouldn't be enough for retirement.
- Gabrielle: ~0%, D- - Became a strong TS, but originally had hurricane potential. Well, at least it was a fishspinner and became the strongest female name thus far this year (along with Melissa).
- Humberto: 5%, A- - Impacts to Bermuda or elsewhere don't seem retirement-worthy. I'm glad we saw the first major "Humberto" on record and it was the first C3 peak since Ophelia '17.
- Imelda: 56%, F- - Retirement percentage still subject to change later upon the release of the final damage total. A weak name-stealer but ended up bringing unusual amounts of rain to Texas, exceeding 40 inches in spots. Flooding was described as "worse than Harvey" in some places. Already 5 deaths have been reported and it's the 4th-wettest on record for Texas, with at least $2 billion in damages also reported. The "I" curse is real. This could actually get the boot... if it does, it would be the weakest ever to get retired. There's still a chance it'll stay though, considering impacts might have been pretty localized and snubbed storms like Isaac '12 have dealt worse damage than the current preliminary toll.
- Jerry: 0.001%, B- - The strongest "Jerry" on record, but it barely affected land at all and died before it could bring anything more than showers to Bermuda.
- Karen: 2%, F - Caused impacts and flooding throughout eastern Caribbean islands but that shouldn't be enough for retirement. Yet another victim of the sexist ATL.
- Lorenzo: 23%, A++ - A very amazing C5, became the first of that intensity ever to avoid landfall in the Atlantic. But unfortunately it still sunk a ship and brought significant impacts and damage to the Azores. Even though the Azores have never requested before, there's a chance they could request for the first time if this was seriously bad enough, although I still have my doubts. France might also request due to their lost ship but that's also doubtful. These impacts prevent it from receiving the "S" grade it otherwise would've earned.
- Melissa: 0.1%, D - Caused minimal impacts. Some grading credit for forming unexpectedly and getting strong enough to tie Gabrielle's windspeed.
- Fifteen: N/A, F - Despite being only a weak depression, it gets grading credit for forming unusually east for the time of year.
- Nestor: 5%, D- - Retirement percentage still preliminary while awaiting the release of damage totals. But it doesn't seem like it was too horrible for the U.S., at least not enough for it to be retired.
- Olga: 0.1%, Z - An absolute waste of a name, was only tropical for like 2 advisories. This might go down in history as one of the most pathetic name-stealers of all time. Caused only minimal impacts, although the cold front it merged with could have been more significant.
- Pablo: 0.001%, A++ - Became a hurricane at a record northeastern part of the Atlantic in waters thought to be TOO COLD. Even Vince was not as far northeast when it was a hurricane. This even really exceeded the intensity forecasts which only called for a mid-grade TS. It'll truly live in the record books for a long time to come. No retirement because impacts to the Azores were minimal.
- Rebekah: ~0%, F - Yet another weak female storm, but this didn't even become fully tropical. Basically a fishspinner unless the Azores got a bit.
Intensity colors: TD/SD, TS/SS (40-50 mph), TS/SS (60-70 mph), C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 (160-180 mph), 185+ mph
Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background, the color for "C5" was made more stark due to the severely of such storms, and a new color was added for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) so they would not be in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms that might be Category 6s if the category was introduced. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.
Retirement percentage colors: ~0%, 0%, or N/A; 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%; ~100%, 100%; TBA
Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.
Grading colors: S, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, TBA
Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.
Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: Imelda
Likely Staying: Lorenzo
Staying: Andrea, Barry (leaning towards "Likely Staying"), Chantal, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Jerry, Karen, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah
Projected retirements for currently active storms:
Retirement chance ranges for:
- "Retired": 80-100%
- "Likely Retired": 60-79%
- "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
- "Likely Staying": 20-39%
- "Staying": 0-19%
All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Retired, Likely Retired, and Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.
Imelda (Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired):
Predicted final replacements to be announced in spring 2020: Dorian > Damien, Imelda (not certain though) > Ivan(n)a
- I expect that this season will end at or around Sebastien.
- It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Rebekah, or go further to Tanya.
- Van or beyond is looking unlikely.
- It's likely we will see 1-2 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. The first of these systems is Dorian at the end of August-start of September, while the second one is probably going to be Imelda. If not, a more significant candidate might still be possible by the end of November (similar to Otto '16), but it's getting highly unlikely at this point. A tiny chance exists that storms like Lorenzo or even Barry might be retired but it's highly doubtful.
- Chances that Sebastien will be used: 50% - The Atlantic seems to have been taking steroids recently, so this name actually has a coin toss chance of happening. The window is starting to close though, but a decent chance still exists for a late-season or a post-season surprise.
- Chances that Tanya will be used: 25% - I still doubt we will get this far down, as the season is coming to a close.
- Chances that Van will be used: 5% - The Atlantic will have to really explode in the late season against climatology. Probably not going to happen unless the Atlantic pulls a 2005 to end the year.
- Chances that Wendy will be used: 0.1% - Seeing so many storms so late in the year is quite frankly not going to happen. At all.
- Chances that Alpha or beyond will be used: ~0% - Despite all the craziness lately, the Greeks is still out of the question.
The original outlook from August 24 for comparison:
- I expect that this season will end at or around Lorenzo.
- It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Jerry or Karen, or go further to Melissa, Nestor, or Olga.
- Pablo or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Imelda or before is also unlikely.
- It's likely we will see around 2 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. The first of these systems may occur at the end of August to early September, while the second one could occur in late September or October.
- Chances that Dorian will be used: ~100% - TD 5 should become this.
- Chances that Erin will be used: ~100% - Should form from 98L.
- Chances that Fernand will be used: ~100% - May arrive in late August, or early September at the very latest.
- Chances that Gabrielle will be used: 99.999% - I expect to see this in early September, or end of August if an explosion occurs.
- Chances that Humberto will be used: 99% - Will most likely be an early-mid September storm.
- Chances that Imelda will be used: 95% - I would literally faint if this season somehow doesn't reach this new name. It should be here in mid September.
- Chances that Jerry will be used: 85% - Highly likely to reach this name. May be a late September storm.
- Chances that Karen will be used: 74% - Also likely that we will reach this name, and might be an early-mid October storm.
- Chances that Lorenzo will be used: 60% - If this forms, it should be in mid-late October.
- Chances that Melissa will be used: 48% - May or may not form this year. If it does form, I expect to see it at the end of October or in November.
- Chances that Nestor will be used: 37% - Slight chance we reach up to here. Will most likely be a late-season or post-season surprise if it does come.
- Chances that Olga will be used: 25% - We will possibly not get as far as we did last year, although there's still a chance.
- Chances that Pablo will be used: 16% - I will be surprised if Pablo forms this year.
- Chances that Rebekah will be used: 9% - The chances have dwindled into the single digits. Tying 2017's named storms is highly unlikely to occur this year. *Currently up to here*
- Chances that Sebastien will be used: 4% - Environmental conditions this year should not support this much activity.
- Chances that Tanya will be used: 1% - The Atlantic will have to really explode, contrary to forecasts for this season. Not going to happen.
- Chances that Van will be used: 0.5% - Not going to happen either. A strange miracle will have to take place to somehow get this far.
- Chances that Wendy will be used: 0.01% - Basically no chance at all that we will exhaust the naming list this year.
- Chances that Alpha or beyond will be used: ~0% - I would have a better chance at getting struck by lightning or even winning the lottery than the Atlantic getting this far in 2019.
~ Steve 19:12, August 24, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 22:52, November 6, 2019 (UTC))
Sandy's retirements and grades
My turn to do retirements and grades!
(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%/0.1%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%, TBA, Fail%, N/A)
(Category colors: PTC, TD/SD, TS/SS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)
(Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z, TBA)
- Andrea: F, 0% — Was notable for continuing the off-season streak forming in May and the sudden formation due to recon, however it was a weak and short-lived storm that never turned fully tropical. The off-season formation saved it from getting a Z.
- Barry: D+, 20% — A July but ugly looking hurricane that made landfall in Louisiana, inflicting >$600 million (USD) and however only caused an indirect death. Barry was also the wettest tropical cyclone in Arkansas, dropping over 16 in (421 mm) in the state. I doubt Barry would go for its impacts since the WMO typically retire storms w/ a higher damage and death toll.
- Three: Z, N/A — A short-lived and weak tropical depression. Do I even have to explain this further?
- Chantal: E, 0% — A weak fish that formed out of nowhere which surprised most of us. It held on for its life for 3 days, earning a E.
- Dorian: A, 100% — Wow, I’m shocked. This 185 mph monster completely devastated the Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands, leaving behind catastrophic damage in its wake. There is no way that Dorian will stay after its severe impacts not only in the Bahamas but also the U.S and Atlantic Canada.
- Erin: F, 0% — A weak storm that did nothing special despite being stronger than Chantal.
- Fernand: E, 2.5% — A 50 mph tropical storm that struck Mexico; only inflicted $383 million and caused 1 death.
- Gabrielle: D-, 0% — Failed to become a hurricane, but was a strong tropical strong at least.
- Humberto: A, 2.5% – This system alone is the first ever Major Hurricane Humberto and prevented a 2007 repeat from happening. Damages in Bermuda are minimal to minor, however a death had been caused.
- Imelda: F, 55% – A pop-up 6 hour TS that drenched loads of rain in Texas, becoming the 7th wettest US tropical cyclone and the 4th wettest for Texas on record. 5 deaths have been occurred so far. Assuming the damages are unknown and it caused extreme flooding to Texas, this has a decent chance of going.
- Jerry: B, 0.1% – It was nice to get another hurricane in the Atl. Stayed alive as a TS after its peak just like Kiko. Damages are not as impactful.
- Karen: F, 1% — Failed miserably to get past 45 mph. Caused some minor flooding, but no deaths.
- Lorenzo: A+++, 20% – A sublime C5 hurricane that broke some records. It is the easternmost C5 on record and the only C5 to not make landfall at all, but it impacted the Azores and some parts of Europe. Unfortunately for Lorenzo, it caused a ship to sink and had some notable impacts in the Azores and Europe, raising the retirement chances to 20%. Its impacts prevented it to get an S grade.
- Melissa: D+ 1% — Pulled off an unexpected formation and peaked when it first formed. Only minimal impacts were reported by this storm.
- Fifteen: F, N/A — Weak storm, but unusually formed far out east.
- Nestor: 5%, D- — Lasted as long as Andrea, impacted the U.S. while being post-tropical causing 3 indirect deaths.
- Olga: Fail%, Z — This is the worst fail and name-stealer I've ever seen in all my 5 years of tracking, only lasting 12 hours as an TC. Olga should've been used for a way better storm, but instead it just failed miserably.
- Pablo: TBA — Currently active.
Definitely Retired (>95%): Dorian
Most Likely Retired (75-90%): None
Likely Retired (55-70%): Imelda
Tossup (45-50%): None
Likely Not Retired (25-40%): None
Most Likely Not Retired (5-20%): Barry, Lorenzo
Definitely Not Retired (<5%): Andrea, Chantal, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Jerry, Karen, Melissa, Nestor
Name chances of being used:
- Rebekah: 50% - I can't believe we've gotten this far this year. We still have a chance of seeing Rebekah, coin toss for that.
- Sebastien: 25% - We could even see Sebastien this year, but I doubt.
- Tanya: 2.5% - I really doubt that this year will be active as 1995.
- Van: 0.1% - Very extremely doubt that this year will be the third-active Atl season ever.
- Wendy and beyond: 0% - Heck no, there's no way that we will reach Wendy and/or the Greek.
That’s all for now folks!
[Updated as of 05:48, October 26, 2019 (UTC)]
Beatissima's Retirement Predictions
- SS Andrea - 0%
- C1 Barry - 10%
- TD Three - N/A
- TS Chantal - 0%
- C5 Dorian - 100%
- TS Erin - 0%
- TS Fernand - 5%
- TS Gabrielle - 0%
- C3 Humberto - 2%
- TS Imelda - 75%
- C2 Jerry - 0%
- TS Karen - 0%
- C5 Lorenzo - 25%
- TS Melissa - 0%
- TD Fifteen - N/A
- TS Nestor - 5%
- TS Olga - 0%
- C1 Pablo - 0%
- SS Rebekah - 0%
- Sebastien - Formation: 55%
- Tanya - Formation: 25%
- Van - Formation: 10%
- Wendy - Formation: 5%
- Greeks - Formation: 2%
ChowKam's Retirement Predictions
Gotta rate these juicy storms...
- Andrea: 0% - Was weak. But still, a pre-season storm is nice.
- Barry: 5% - A nice, weird early season hurricane. Damages shouldn't warrant retirement.
- Three: N/A - While technically a failure, it was a nice depression to watch.
- Chantal: 0% - Weak, but was a surprise weird formation. Lasted a bit.
- Dorian: 100% - This monstrous 185-mph-storm was simply too beefy for the Bahamas. While nice to track, I hope the Bahamas can recover quickly from this storm. They need a rest from hurricanes like this.
- Erin: 0% - Nice to have a storm, but it simply was not juicy enough. No land impacts. Alternate reaction:  - Erin: 0:14 Wind Shear: 0:27
- Fernand: 5% - Surprisingly costly, but luckily not too bad. One unfortunate death. Juicier than expected.
- Gabrielle: 0% - No land interaction, no retirement. Interesting degeneration and reformation.
- Humberto: N/A - Currently active.
- Imelda: N/A - Currently active.
- Jerry: N/A - Currently active.
Note: I am rather extreme with my retirement predictions - if a storm seems unlikely to be retired, it won't be retired. If a storm seems likely to be retired, it will be retired.
Harveycane's predictions and grades
Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C5 (185+ mph)
Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, Z-, TBA
Formation chance/retirement percentages:
- 0.001-0.9% (Nearly 0%)
- 1-9% (Extremely unlikely)
- 10-19% (Very unlikely)
- 20-29% (Unlikely)
- 30-39% (Somewhat unlikely)
- 40-49% (Medium)
- 50-59% (Somewhat likely)
- 60-69% (Likely)
- 70-79% (Very likely)
- 80-89% (Extremely likely)
- 90-99% (Nearly certain)
- 100% (Certain)
- Andrea: 0%, F - Weak, forgettable, short lived. Need I say more?
- Barry: 17%, C- - One of the ugliest "hurricanes" I've ever seen, for that reason it gets a C-. However, at least we got a hurricane.
- Three: N/A%, Z - Sorry, but you were one pathetic storm. We all thought we would see Chantal from this, but nope.
- Chantal: 0%, F - After over a month and a half of waiting for the next named storm to form, all we get is this forgettable failure. However, its still better than nothing.
- Dorian: 100%, A- - I can safely say for sure that this is going this year. The Bahamas were ANNIHILATED by this storm, as well as the US and Canada. Gets an A- for defying predictions of it being a fail and became a category 5 hurricane, but at the same time damages limit the grade form going any higher. (Replacement name: Diego)
- Erin: 0%, F- - Basically a "pop up storm" during Dorian that did nothing but waste a name. Don't take the Eastern Pacifc's habits with you next time.
- Fernand: 6%, E - Short lived tropical storm that caused flooding in northeastern Mexico. Impacts are not enough to warrant retirement.
- Gabrielle: 0%, E - Had hurricane potential, didn't reach it. I had higher expectations for this.
- Humberto: TBA, TBA - Currently active. As of now, it is threatening Bermuda. Hopefully impacts aren't severe (which it shouldn't).
- Imelda: Up to 80%*, F - Not only it was a prime example of a name stealer, but a destructive one as well. Caused record breaking flooding in parts of Texas, but damage toll remains unknown. The only reason why it didn’t get a Z grade because of its surprise formation.
- Jerry: TBA, TBA - Currently active.
* Imelda’s damage toll remains TBD, thus it says up to 80%. Overall season rating (tentative): C - Despite being crappy in the first part of the year, it managed to pull a 2018 and start a massive increase in activity. It can be near average by the end of the season.
Future storm chances (SUBJECT TO CHANGE):
- Fernand: 100% - May appear around peak season.
- Gabrielle: 100% - Will form sometime around the peak of the season.
- Humberto: 100% - We could possibly see this in late September.
- Imelda: 91% - Can form by early October, as long as the uptick in activity actually happens.
- Jerry: 78% - Unless activity is doomed to be inactive the whole year, we will most likely see this.
- Karen: 63% - This is around where my certainty of these numbers begins to fall. We may see this or not depending on the basin's performance.
- Lorenzo: 45% - This is probably where we will end this year, presuming that the season will have a near average September-October.
- Melissa: 32% - May come as a late season surprise.
- Nestor: 25% - Storm names from here are unlikely to be used. Unless we get an "explosion" in activity, this is unlikely.
- Olga: 17% - Unfortunately, we may not go this far at this rate. Reaching up to 2018's levels of activity is very unlikely.
- Pablo: 9% - I don't think we will get here this season.
- Rebekah: 4% - Very, very unlikely.
- Sebastien: 1% - You will have to defy climatology to get here at this point.
- Tanya: 0.5% - Again, you can't get here without defying climatology.
- Van, Wendy and beyond: 0% - If you think we will get to here you are crazy. Jk, but seriously, it is NOT likely at all to get this far into the season.
Jas's shenanigans: retirement predictions, storm grades, etc.
- Andrea - 0% - Should be back in 2025.
- Barry - 3% - Had some impacts, but honestly Barry is here to stay.
- Chantal - 0% - Thanks for waking up the Atlantic, but will remain in the lists.
- Dorian - 99.9% - The impacts in The Bahamas would be enough to warrant the retirement of this historic storm.
- Erin - 0% - Just no.
- Fernand - 10% - Maybe, just maybe. Mexico is still notorious for their record in retiring names of destructive storms.
- Gabrielle - 1% - Thanks for trying to be a hurricane, but Gab shall return in 2025.
- Humberto - 2% - Had some impacts in Bermuda, but most likely will remain in the lists.
- Imelda - 15% - Kinda low for Texas's 4th wettest tropical cyclone, but while the flooding is reminiscent of Claudette, the two Allisons ('89 & '01), and Harvey, the death toll is low (if I am not mistaken, 5 or 6 as of this writing). Not to mention the damage total is currently at $3 million only. 1994's Alberto, 2011's Lee and even 2012's Isaac were not retired despite causing similar scenarios and even higher death tolls, so I think Imelda will likely stay.
- Jerry - 1.5% - Similar to Humberto, but really did nothing. That 1.5 percent is only there because it became a hurricane.
- Karen - 3% - The flooding in Tobago looks pretty bad, but so far Karen has not caused any fatalities.
- Lorenzo - TBA - Still active, but the Azores must watch out.
(Highest is A+++, lowest is Z, TDs are excluded, unless they are significant enough.)
- Andrea - F - A preseason storm, and that's it. Epic fail though.
- Barry - C - Had some impacts, but surprised me for reaching hurricane status.
- Chantal - L - A sacrificial lamb, I guess. Took the L to pave the way for other storms.
- Dorian - B- - If there's something which can be called a "beautiful" disaster, it would be this one. Beautiful to see from outer space, but a monster on the Earth's surface. Would have been A+++ had it not affected The Bahamas, but since it wreaked havoc that country (at least $7 billion damages, 50+ deaths, 1,300 missing), its grade has been brought down to B minus.
- Erin - Z - Very unremarkable, sorry.
- Fernand - F - Not really a fail (since it affected land), but very irrelevant to be honest.
- Gabrielle - C- - A good distraction from the freak that is Dorian, but otherwise not that notable.
- Humberto - A - While not as strong as Dorian, and while it also had impacts in Bermuda, Humberto was a spectacle. Very pleasing to the eyes.
- Imelda - F- - F minus because while I am still at awe with its rapid intensification (from a 30/30 invest into a full-blown TS in a matter of hours), Imelda is just a very weak storm. Very very weak, as it actually had the lowest ACE for an Atlantic storm, ever. Not to mention the flooding it caused in southeast Texas. Such a nasty name-stealer.
- Jerry - B - Could have had a higher grade had it became a major, but a fishspinning C2 is fine.
- Karen - D+ - For the effort to stay long, although later gave up due to unfavorable conditions.
- Lorenzo - TBD - So far so good though.
Storm formation percentages:
(Some names include wild guesses on their intensities)
- Melissa - 90% - Most likely will form. Given the trend this season, this will be weak, but not sure about the impacts.
- Nestor - 85% - Most likely will form. Probably another strong system, may or may not affect land areas.
- Olga - 65% - Most likely will form. Not sure about the intensity yet, but maybe she'll redeem the List V women. Hopefully a fishspinner though.
- Pablo - 45% - May or may not form. Possibly the last name to be used this season. May peak as a subtropical storm or a TS if used.
- Rebekah - 30% - May not form this season. But there's still a chance, a chance that is gradually increasing. Maybe a C1 to redeem the women?
- Sebastien - 20% - May not form this season. Though I low key hope that this year would go all the way up to this name, I feel that it will end at Rebekah. If this forms however, I am expecting a strong TS or a C1.
- Tanya - 10% - May not form this season. But there's still a very slight chance. Would be a TS or an SS at best.
- Van - 0% - Nah. A hyperactive final two (or three (if including off-season)) months should happen to reach this name. Probably a TS if (and only if) it forms.
- Wendy, Alpha and beyond - 0% - Nah. Atlantic needs to be on steroids in order for this name to be used this year. Won't happen at all.
Lee’s retirement predictions
Might as well start this now, with Dorian becoming more and more of a threat. I won’t be doing ratings this year.
- Andrea- 0%: It was nice that we were able to keep the pre-season streak going, but Andrea didn’t do anything, so nope.
- Barry- 20%: Caused some damage and flooding, but I don’t see it going anywhere.
- Chantal- 0%: Nope
- Dorian- 100%: Tied with the Labor Day Hurricane for strongest landfalling hurricane in the Atlantic, decimating parts of the Bahamas in the process. Caused some impacts in the US and Atlantic Canada as well, and even if retirement isn’t requested by either country, the absolutely catastrophic damage done by the 185 mph monster in the Bahamas is more than enough to guarantee Dorian’s retirement in 2020. Replacement name picks: Dylan, Devon, Davin, Dax, Darrell, Dale, Doug, Derek (Lot of options to choose from with the letter D)
- Erin- 0%: Not going anywhere.
- Fernand- 5%: Ended up being somewhat worse than initially thought, but still not likely to go anywhere, especially due to Mexico's track record when it comes to retirement
- Gabrielle- 0%: See Erin.
- Humberto- 2%: Sadly caused a fatality, but retirement is not at all likely.
- Imelda- 50% Imelda is a tough one. Some areas in Texas reported flooding worse than Hurricane Harvey, however it was mainly localized flooding. In comparison, tropical storms Amelia and Claudette caused heavy localized flooding in Texas a year apart from each other and neither were retired. Also, exact damage figures haven’t come out yet, so for now I’m putting it at an even 50/50. Depending on damage totals, this figure could go up or down. Replacement names: Ivy, Isa, Inga (Basically the same choices I put during Irma, with the addition of Inga. Even though they’ve both already been used for typhoons, I’ve wanted to see the names Ivy and Isa on the list for years now.)
- Jerry- 0%: Certainly a redemption for past storms named Jerry, but it was a fish, so absolutely no chance at retirement.
- Karen- 5%: Caused some flooding in the Antilles, but impacts were relatively minor, and those areas have been hit harder in just the past two years alone. I don’t see Karen getting retired.
- Lorenzo- 30%: Easternmost Atlantic Category 5 on record, responsible for the sinking of a ship, causing deaths. Also impacted the Azores. More than likely won’t be retired but there is still a chance.
- Melissa- 0%: See Erin and Gabrielle
- Nestor- 5%: Caused 3 deaths and some US impacts, but it shouldn’t be going anywhere either.
- Olga- 0%: Was only tropical for like 2 advisories. Absolutely not going anywhere.
- Pablo- TBA Currently active
IbAHAn1829's/The Chosen Wizard's Name Retirement Chances
The month of September featured many storms...
- Subtropical Storm Faildrea - Nice job that you formed *ahem* BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED AGAIN! Seriously, so many pre-season storms for me, almost TOO much. Plus, 40 mph for like 18 hours won't do it for me. (0%)
- Hurricane Barry - Flooded areas inland under its ginormous blanket of rain, of course there's gonna be a retirement chance, albeit a small one. (20%)
- Tropical Storm Chantal - ATL: How far north do you want to form? Chantal: Yes. Polar Bears: Well, we're screwed. (0%)
- Hurricane Dorian - Hulking category 5 hurricane that almost wiped out some of the Bahamian islands. The name will be retired. (99%)
- Tropical Storm Erin Failed - Nothing. (0%)
- Tropical Storm Fernand - Made landfall on Mexico, that's it. It also rained a lot. (1%)
- Tropical Storm Gabrielle - Half-failed because although it persisted in the wind shear, it also never became a hurricane. (0%)
- Hurricane Humberto - Hit Bermuda. (20%)
- Tropical Storm Imelda - Rained a lot, so much so that it is causing people to need WATER RESCUES. Yeah, the name will be retired. (99%)
- Hurricane Jerry - The mouse from Tom and Jerry. Something Bermuda needs to watch. (??%)
PhTracking's Retirement Predictions and Grading
Welp, might as well make one of these grades and retirement predictions. Grades run from F- to A+.
- Andrea - Cool pre-season storm that continued a 4 year streak, however, it only lasted 18 hours, and was also a 40 mph subtropical fail. Just another good name put to bad use. (0% retirement, D)
- Barry - A July hurricane, made landfall while peaking. Caused floods inland. Ugly with an exposed circulation, only lasted 6 hours as a hurricane. (20% retirement, C)
- 03L - ...why? (N/A retirement, F-)
- Chantal - Weak storm, formed at a high latitude. Was a surprise, but a failure nonetheless. (0% retirement, D-)
- Dorian - Costliest disaster in Bahamian history. 55 reported direct deaths according to Wikipedia with likely a lot more. At least $7.5 billion in damages. Also affected Atlantic Canada; retirement is imminent. Oh, and all the nasty things it did lowered its grade. (100% retirement, B)
- Erin - An absolute failure of a storm. Exposed LLCC, was projected to form EARLIER than Dorian. The only thing Erin is important for is to boost the storm totals. (0% retirement, F)
- Fernand - Weak and short-lived storm in the gulf, at least not a 40 mph fail. Oh, and it actually does have quite a bit of convection, so that's a plus. (1% retirement, C-)
- Gabrielle - Strong tropical storm that degenerated into a RL once, also sort of formed in the MDR. Cool fish storm, but stayed as a TS. (0% retirement, C+)
- Humberto - A major, mostly a fish, but went by Bermuda. Threw hurricane-force winds on the area and causing several blackouts. Not worthy of retirement so far. (7% retirement, B+)
- Imelda - Weak short-lived tropical storm that stalled over Texas rainfall, causing record flooding in some areas.
I'm not sure if it'll get retired or not.eOOO- $8 billion in damages?! Oh dear. (100% retirement, D+)
- Jerry - Category 2 peak, but a TS for most of its life and was quite sad. (0.2% retirement, C)
- Karen - Quite a weak and boring TS but a weird one to track nonetheless. (0.01% retirement, D+)
- Lorenzo - Currently active.
Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions
List 5 has never gone a single season without having at least 1 retired name since 1979, and with Dorian's devastation, this year is no exception...nonetheless, I, Ryan Grand, will make my retirement speech once again:
- Andrea - 0% - Well hey, you gotta give her credit for giving the Atlantic a record 5 consecutive years with a pre-season storm, but that aside, it was just a minor rainshower or wave kickup to Bermuda.
- Barry - 18% - Caused somewhat extensive damage and flooding in parts of the south, but it probably won't cut for retirement.
- Chantal - 0% - Not a ChanCEtal (forgive the pun, couldn't resist).
- Dorian - 100% - Caused at least 8.2 billion dollars in damage and killed up to 70 people, mostly in the northwestern Bahamas, making Dorian the costliest storm in the Bahamas's history and the deadliest hurricane to hit the archapelago in at least 93 years, since the 1926 Nassau hurricane, which killed over 250 people in the nation's capital. That will guarantee his retirement next year.
- Erin - 0% - Like Chantal, no.
- Fernand - 10% - Caused somewhat extensive flooding in some areas of Tamaulipas, with a damage bill of roughly 213 million USD and 1 death. However, Mexico has snubbed worse storms than Fernand in the past, so he will probably stay for 2025.
- Gabrielle - 0% - Turned north too soon and didn't affect land.
- Humberto - 2% - Sadly, Humberto was confirmed to have killed 1 or 2 people due to surf and rip currents on the U.S. eastern seaboard, and caused power outages on Bermuda, but fortunately there was little damage and no deaths on Bermuda.
- Imelda - 35% - Earlier estimates of damage were around 6-8 billion, but more recent estimates are around 2 billion. That may seem severe, but keep in mind Isaac '12 caused 2.3 billion in damage (at the time) and didn't make it, so Imelda probably won't either; the U.S. has higher retirement standards now than in the past.
- Jerry - 0% - Made up for his previous two epic fails intensity-wise, but still, a fishspinner's a fishspinner.
- Karen - 4% - Caused some flooding in the eastern Caribbean, but wasn't too severe, certainly nothing compared to Irma and Maria two years ago.
- Lorenzo - 40% - Lorenzo did kill 16 people in the Azores, from sinking a French ship out at sea, and from distant high surf on the U.S. east coast, and also caused very extensive storm surge and wind damage to parts of the Azores (estimates are at a fairly hefty 362 million USD), especially to the ports on Flores, on top of the images and videos that I showed before. The only thing going against Lorenzo is that the Azores have never historically been known to ask for the retirement of a hurricane name before, but they are a member of the WMO's hurricane committee (they provided a report on Alex in 2016) so they theoretically could request Lorenzo to be retired, and as Fabian and Juan in 2003 showed, just because someplace may not have a retirement record, doesn't mean they can't start one. We'll see what they decide.
- Melissa - 1% - Not much different than her previous two incarnations, though early in her lifetime she did bring some surf and impacts to New England.
- Nestor - 12% - Some damage for the gulf coast, with 3 deaths, but not retirement-worthy.
- Olga - 10% - Slightly less severe than Nestor.
- Pablo - 0% - Became the northeasternmost Atlantic hurricane on record in the face of seemingly unfavorable conditions, but fortunately caused no damage or loss of life to the Azores.
- Rebekah - 0% - Got us to the "R" name once again, and my mom's name too, but a fish is a fish.
Ȝeſtikl's Retirement Chances and Grades
- sS Andrea - 0% > D > Didn't affect land.
- C1 Barry - 25% > C > Some impacts to the Gulf coast, but certainly not enough to warrant retirement.
- TD Three - 0% > F > Short-lived TD that showered Florida and the Bahamas.
- TS Chantal - 0% > D > See Andrea.
- C5 Dorian - 95% > B > Dorian was a monster that destroyed the Bahamas.
- TS Erin - 0% > D > See Andrea.
- TS Fernand - 12% > D > Impacted Mexico as a Tropical Storm and caused a lot of damage.
- TS Gabrielle - 0% > D > See Andrea.
- C3 Humberto - 6% > A > Impacted Bermuda.
- C2 Jerry - 1% > B > Brushed the Antilles.
- TS Imelda - 55% > F > Lots of rainfall and massive flooding.
- TS Karen - 6% > D > Caused extensive damage to Tobago, but probably not enough to warrant retirment.
- C5 Lorenzo - 40% > A > C5. Unfortunately affected the Azores and killed 4 on the Bourbon Rhode.
- TS Melissa - 6% > C > Another tropical storm that rained on the Mid-Atlantic.
- TD Fifteen - 0% > D > Easternmost TC on record, good job, but you failed to get named.
- TS Nestor - 6% > D > Short-lived TS that turned extratropical in the Gulf.
- TS Olga - 1% > F > Even shorter-lived TS that also turned extratropical in the Gulf.
- TS Pablo - 2% > A > Pablo became a hurricane when not forecast to, brought minor impacts to the Azores, and travelled really fast.
- sS Rebekah - 0% > C >
TG's Retirements at a glance
Retirement percentage colors: ~0%, 0%, or N/A; 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%; ~100%, 100%; TBA
- Andrea - 0% - F: Although Andrea was a pre-season storm, it was pretty much garbage.
- Barry - 20 - C-: Barry thankfully didn't live up to its forecasts, and if it did, the chances of retirement would be much higher than 20%. Barry didn't look too great, but it did at least reach hurricane strength. With damages being around $600 million and a low death toll, it is unlikely that Barry is retired.
- Chantal - 0% - F: Another failicia.
- Dorian - 100% - A+: Not given A+ because of damages or deaths, but in regards to the absolute intensity of this storm. Dorian was the definition of a monster, stronger than Irma even, and we thought that no storm could've topped that in the near future, but here we are with Dorian. 185/910. It's hard to believe. It is by far the costliest storm to ever strike the Bahamas, and the most powerful landfalling system in decades. Good riddance, Dorian.
- Erin - 0% - F: Lol no, see you in 2025.
- Fernand - 15 - D+: A sad BoC storm that produced quite a bit of damage, and a few deaths unfortunately. However, $383 million in damages most likely does not warrant retirement.
- Gabrielle - 0% - D-: Gabrielle was just another storm, not too much interesting about it.
- Humberto - 5% - A-: Our second major, and to be honest, a pretty interesting storm by its track. Impacted Bermuda, but not enough to have major damages.
- Imelda - 50% - D-: Imelda was one of the wettest TCs on record in the US, and the 4th wettest in Texas, with rainfall totals of over 40 inches. Areas in Southeast Texas received devastating flooding, but due to these impacts being more localized than Harvey, the chances of Imelda being retired is the flip of a coin. It's too early to tell, but once damages come out, the chances will either be upped or lowered.
- Jerry - 0% - TBD: Currently active.
Retirements summed up:
- Will be retired (80-100%): Dorian
- Maybe retired (50-80%): Imelda
- Slight chance (20-50%): Barry
- Will not be retired (0-20%): All other storms
Owen's Retirement Predictions:
I figure it is time to release what I'm thinking.
The storms for which I have given 0% do not require much of an explanation. Names in bold are those with at least 50% chance of being retired.
- Andrea - 0%
- Barry - 10% - The ~$600M USD damage total is nothing to cast off as minimal, but even Hurricane Juan of 1985 brought a much larger damage toll of $1.5 billion and was snubbed.
- Chantal - 0%
- Dorian - 100% - The damage in the Bahamas was catastrophic, and easily made Dorian the worst hurricane they've ever seen. I expect the death toll will reach into the thousands.
- Erin - 0%
- Fernand - 15% - Over $300M USD in damages from extensive flooding, but likely won't be enough. I give a slightly higher percentage to him due to Mexico's slight unpredictability.
- Gabrielle - 0%
- Humberto - 5% - Bermuda seems to have made it out alright, with no deaths reported. This was no Fabian.
- Imelda - 30% - Catastrophic flooding reported in Texas, with some areas even noting it was 'worse than Harvey' but it does appear that the flooding was a bit more localized. Damages are now estimated in excess of $2 billion, which sounds like a lot at first glance, but Hurricane Isaac of 2012 caused $3 billion and didn't get the boot. In order for Imelda's odds to rise, estimates probably need to go to about $5 billion or higher.
- Jerry - 0%
- Karen - 0%
- Lorenzo - 25% - The Azores did not take this one lightly, and there was clear wind and surge damage from his passing through the islands. The real question is what the damage toll amounts to be, and factoring in the possibility that Lorenzo will be the first storm to be requested for retirement by the Azores.
- Melissa - 0%
- Nestor - 5% - Although the post-tropical system wrought some havoc in Florida and spawned some damaging tornadoes, it's highly likely that it won't be enough to get the name removed.
- Olga - 0%
- Pablo - 0%
- Rebekah - 0%
This category is specific for names above with at least 25% chance of being retired in the spring of 2020. The name in italic is the one I predict will replace the name should it face removal by the World Meteorological Organization.
Retiree candidate #1 -> Dorian
Retiree candidate #2 -> Imelda
Retiree candidate #3 -> Lorenzo
04:55, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
SHP's Grades and Retirement Predictions
Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5
Grade colors: S, A+, A, A-, B, C, D, E, F, Failippe
Note: Rank S is reserved for storms with minimal/no land impact.
- Andrea: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 0%: Yet another pre-season storm, and definitely the least impressive member of the streak.
- Barry: Grade- D - Retirement chance- 10%: A terrible-looking system that thankfully kept most of its moisture away from land. Needless to say, Louisiana has seen much, much worse.
- Chantal: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 0%: Spun around over water and did nothing.
- DORIAN: Grade- A+ - Retirement chance- 100%: What a monster this was. He reached an undeniably impressive intensity, with him snatching Irma's record of strongest non-MDR hurricane, but that horrifying wrath was tragically unleashed on the northern Bahamas for over 2 days, dealing untold damage and killing potentially over 1000 people. It may have only dealt a glancing blow to the US, but its carnage in the Bahamas alone is enough to secure its retirement and a place in the history books.
- Erin: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 0%: A blip on the map that was swiftly forgotten in the wake of Dorian.
- Fernand: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 5%: A short-lived system that dealt more damage than anticipated in Mexico, but not enough to warrant retirement.
- Gabrielle: Grade- E - Retirement chance- 0%: Also overshadowed by Dorian, but at least made a run at hurricane status.
- Humberto: Grade- B - Retirement chance- 3%: Quite a large storm that delivered minor impacts to Bermuda.
- IMELDA: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 55%: This system was not only a downright pathetic name stealer, but also an Allison-caliber rainkaker that drenched parts of southeast Texas even worse than Harvey. There are no redeeming qualities about this system, and the only thing saving it from being a Failippe is notoriety. The retirement chance is subject to change as damage estimates/fatality anmouncements are released.
- Jerry: Grade- C Retirement chance: 0%: Tried and failed to do what Humberto did.
- Karen: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 1%: Underperformed for its entire lifespan, and dumped rain on areas that have seen much worse. Definitely staying.
- Lorenzo: Grade- A+ - Retirement chance- 15%: A surprise Cat. 5 that reached that intensity further east than any other storm in the Atlantic. This would normally warrant an S rank, but he unfortuntely sank a French ship and delivered considerable impacts to the Azores. I still consider him to be this year's best storm though.
- Melissa: Grade- D - Retirement Chance- 0%: Gets points for a surprise formation and a decent peak, but not that impressive overall.
- Nestor: Grade- F - Retirement Chance- .01%: Did impact the US as an extratropical system, but damages seem to be minimal.
- Olga: Grade- Failippe - Retirement Chance- no%: yeah
- Pablo: Grade- A - Retirement Chance- 0%: And here we have this year's awesome oddball. He formed out of nowhere, got a speeding ticket, and strengthened into a hurricane further northeast than any other over ~20°C waters, all while doing next to no damage. He was a very fun system to track, and worthy redeemeer for Olga's failure.
Java's Retirement Estimates
- Andrea - 0% - Failed. With far too many pre-season storms around, my respect for them has taken a hit.
- Barry - 10% - Looked rather disorganised for a hurricane. Damage doesn't seem to be enough for retirement, and it has been masked by Dorian too.
- Chantal - 0% - Nothing special, except for its surprise formation.
- DORIAN - BYE% - You're fired!
- Erin - Fail% - NO.
- Fernand - 5% - Since it is Mexico we're dealing with, Fernand gets a lower chance than would be expected for $213 million in damage.
- Gabrielle - Weak sister of Lee 2017. No land affected so no retirement.
- Humberto - 10% - Bermuda has seen worse than this.
- IMELDA - GONE% - With damages approaching Allison, this already stands a big chance of getting the boot. Moreover, Trump might simply have this retired to protect his Texan votes.
- Jerry - 1% - Not enough damage for retirement.
- Karen - Fail% - NO.
- Lorenzo - 50% - Oh boy. This is a tough call. This caused unprecedented damage in the Azores, so this could get the boot. However, the Azores have never retired a name before, so I'll hold this at 50/50.
- Melissa - 1% - Damages in the NE US are pretty low.
- Nestor - 1% - Partially a dud. Dissipated before landfall.
- Olga - Fail% - Well, let us not speak about this thing.
- Pablo - 0% - For all its extraordinary achievements, this seems to have had very little impact on land.
- Rebekah - Fail% - NO.
Male "D" names (For Dorian)
Since Dorian absolutely slaughtered the Abaco Islands as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record, it's safe to assume that....erhm, Dorian Gray is our first guaranteed retirement candidate. That being said, what are your thoughts on replacement names? Here are some, copied from Don in 2017 (which had no real chance to be retired anyways):
- Dylan would be really excited if his name was chosen lol. I don't know if they will chose Drake due to the famous singer/rapper of the same name. I suspect that the NHC will choose something like Damien, Dominic, Darren, Dale, or Derek for the 2025 list. Maybe Dylan is possible too but I have more of a feeling that those other names might be picked instead. I would love it if Dylan was the choice though. ~ Steve 22:45, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
- Dominic, Darren, Desmond and Dale are okay, but my top 4 right now: Drew, Damien, Derek, and Dylan (my top pick). Dan would be a good pick too (though it sounds like a shortened version of EPac's Daniel). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:36, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
There are many examples of two names being on the Atlantic and EPac lists at the same time that are similar to each other, I mentioned this before with Matthew in 2016 (it was replaced with Martin itself which is a variation of the EPac's Marty on list 1). Also, David was retired after 1979 and replaced with Danny while Daniel was in the EPac at that same time and both names are still in use today, as well as 1999's Floyd being retired and replaced with Franklin while Frank was already in the EPac and both names are still in use today. So Doug and Dan are definitely possibilities, but Dylan is still my top pick. Ryan1000 02:26, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
- Another few suggestions I have are Donovan, Devin/Devon, and Desmond. TG 2019 13:50, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
If it would be The Bahamas that gets impacted the most, Dominic/Declan/Donovan/Dan/Dale are the best possible replacement names. If it would be the U.S., they might go for Diego/Derek/Dylan/Darren/Drew. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
- Strongly disagree with Anon 2.0 here. I think there is a theme per naming list every year. The names used this year have a very urban, diverse feel to them and the replacement names usually reflect that, even the ones picked by the US which always tend towards the old fashioned side in most cases. Here's my take on this dilemma based on what I think each country would go for should they request retirement:
- Bahamas: Dante, Deshawn, Declan, Dominic
- USA: Dylan, Derek, Darren, Diego
Dante is a name commonly used among Black people as well as Dorian so I won't be surprised if that ends up being the replacement name, also given the urban feel to this naming list. More British-y sounding names like Declan (O'Donnelly) and Dominic (Raab) are possible if Bahamas is picking. Diversity also is key to this list as a whole so I highly doubt they would choose a name common among baby boomer, white Americans, unlike, say last year's list. There are mostly Gen X and Millennial names here. The mix is crucial. So I personally would say Dante is my first choice. Diego would be acceptable too and likely would only fit in this Atlantic list. PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:50, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
- Well, I concur. Dante and Diego would sound good in this list, knowing that this is the most diverse of the six being used by NHC. (Though I'm still kinda wondering why did you say that you disagree with me when you put the very same names that I listed there, save for Drew for the U.S. and Dante/Dan/Dale/Donovan in the names that Bahamas would possibly propose as replacement/s for Dorian). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:13, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
- because you didn't mention dante or diego. I actually see either of those two being used, dante especially if the bahamas is requesting retirement. Dante is common among both black and hispanic populations, bahamas is mostly black and it'll only fit in well with this diverse naming list. PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:52, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
Considering the Bahamas will most likely make the case, Dante would be a likely choice from them. Diego and Dominic, or even Donovan are possibilities too, though I would still personally prefer Dylan. Ryan1000 22:26, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
Personally I'd still prefer Dan (given the fact that NHC chose Martin which is quite similar to Marty), but at this point I can see Diego replacing it (a name which I actually put in my post; I edited it even before PeterPiper replied and disagreed with my comment: I put mine at 14:14 UTC of August 31, PeterPiper replied at 16:50 UTC of August 31). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:10, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
Some more that haven't been mentioned:
Female "I" Names (Potentially for Imelda)
Despite the fact that it peaked as a very short-lived, weak TS, it's producing catastrophic flooding in Texas that has been described as "worse than Harvey" in some spots. This could actually have a chance of retirement in my opinion. What names would you guys suggest? Here's mine:
~ Steve 00:37, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
- I would like to add Ivonne and Inga to that list as well. Ivy, however, definitely fits into this list much better, and would be a top pick, most likely. TG 2019 00:59, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
- Ivy and Ina/Inna are my top picks, but Iva, Ivonne, Imogen, Ignatia/Ignacia, Inga, Irina & Ita may be chosen too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 04:54, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
Ivy, Irina, and Inga are my personal 3 favorites for Imelda, though Isa, Ina and Imogen are also good picks. Ivan(n)a is a possibility but I personally think it's too close to Ivan, retired only 15 years ago. Ryan1000 07:05, September 21, 2019 (UTC)
- You never know. Francine sounds a lot like Frances.
Male "L" Names (Potentially for Lorenzo)
Although it didn't officially make landfall, Lorenzo was large enough to cause fairly extensive storm surge and wind damage to parts of the northwestern Azores, submerging the coastal port on the island of Flores and destroying houses, downing trees, and power lines there too, leading to over 360 million dollars in damage. It may be a bit of a long shot, but there is a chance the Azores could make a (first ever) retirement case for Lorenzo, if that toll is severe enough for them. So, if the Azores do make a case, what do you think will replace Lorenzo? Here are some names, and like before, these were previously posted for Lane last year in the EPac, which was also a wild card for retirement:
Luigi should be our top pick because his brother Mario is on this year's EPac naming list. Would only make sense. But Lucas/Luke, Liam, Linus, Leo(n), Leonard(o), Lander, Logan, Landon, ect are also good. Ryan1000 20:40, October 2, 2019 (UTC)
Bad Replacement Names
Just for fun.
- Would be Donald for me. Not only because of the U.S. President, but also because of Don in list 3. But we'll never know... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
Above comment left by Beatissima
- Ligma. Send Help Please (talk) 15:22, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
|Name||Operational Intensity and Duration||Reanalysis Intensity and Duration||TCR Release Date|
|Andrea||40 mph, 1006 mbars, May 20-21||40 mph, 1006 mbars, May 20-21||August 6, 2019|
|Barry||75 mph, 991 mbars, July 11-15||N/A||N/A|
|Three||35 mph, 1012 mbars, July 22-23||35 mph, 1013 mbars, July 22-23||August 19, 2019|
|Chantal||40 mph, 1009 mbars, August 21-24||40 mph, 1007 mbars, August 20-24||October 25, 2019|
|Dorian||185 mph, 910 mbars, Aug. 24-Sept. 7||N/A||N/A|
|Erin||40 mph, 1005 mbars, August 26-29||N/A||N/A|
|Fernand||50 mph, 1000 mbars, September 3-5||N/A||N/A|
|Gabrielle||65 mph, 995 mbars, September 3-6/6-10||N/A||N/A|
|Humberto||125 mph, 951 mbars, September 13-20||N/A||N/A|
|Jerry||105 mph, 976 mbars, September 17-25||N/A||N/A|
|Imelda||40 mph, 1005 mbars, September 17-19||N/A||N/A|
|Karen||45 mph, 1002 mbars, September 22-27||N/A||N/A|
|Lorenzo||160 mph, 925 mbars, Sept. 23-Oct. 2||N/A||N/A|
|Melissa||65 mph, 995 mbars, October 11-14||N/A||N/A|
|Fifteen||35 mph, 1006 mbars, October 14-16||35 mph, 1006 mbars, October 14-16||November 1, 2019|
|Nestor||60 mph, 996 mbars, October 18-19||N/A||N/A|
|Olga||40 mph, 998 mbars, October 25-26||N/A||N/A|
|Pablo||80 mph, 977 mbars, October 25-28||N/A||N/A|
|Rebekah||45 mph, 987 mbars, Oct. 30-Nov. 1||N/A||N/A|
- Added the table for reference. Doesn't appear like there were any notable changes to Andrea, besides the advisory times (advisories were operationally issued at 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC, but NHC just put it to 1800 UTC on the 20th, or 2 PM EDT) for convenience. Ryan1000 20:47, August 6, 2019 (UTC)