Forum:2019 Atlantic hurricane season/Archive 1

Future start[]

We're going to make the 2019 forum slightly ahead of time, but we already have the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific betting pools up, with some slight changes. In any instance, this year is using list 5, the one Atlantic naming list that has never gone one single season of usage without having at least 1 retired name since the modern naming lists since 1979, and has the most retired names from any 1979-today naming list, with 13. My personal predictions are 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and maybe a category 5 or two. I doubt the El Nino we saw rise up last year will last long or that strongly into 2019, not to want a bad season, but it's very possible. Ryan 1000 03:52, November 20, 2018 (UTC)

I also think the El Nino won't last as long, but I do think it will last around February or March, and then a warm neutral for most of the season. However, I also believe El Nino effects will linger int he Atlantic for most of the season, i.e., strong upper-wind shear. With that being said, I think the 2019 AHS will be near-neutral season with 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. I don't expect a C5 this upcoming season, but I do expect 1 retired name, maybe even no names being retired. ~ Roy25 Happy Thanksgiving Day!!! | 🦃 23:09, November 22, 2018 (UTC)

While I personally think the name list has no correlation to the upcoming season, I just hope it has at least one major hurricane, lol. I think 2019 will be slightly below to near average. - PORYGONAL 13:18, November 28, 2018 (UTC)

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! Sandy 156 :) 04:06, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

Hall of Fame 2019[]

Since it's officially 2019, this year's hall of fame is now open for voting, if anyone wants to do it. Ryan 1000 12:34, January 1, 2019 (UTC)

Farewell[]

With only 3 days of the season left, and nothing expected to form in the next 5 days, it's safe to say by now that the 2019 AHS has finally shut down, unless we get a post-season surprise in December.

All things aside, this year proved to be a very active, above average season, with 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 majors, 2 cat 5's, and slightly over 130 ACE units. According to this article written by NOAA, at the top of the NHC's news on their home page, 2019 is the 4th consecutive above-average season, which makes this only the second time on record in which the Atlantic mustered four consecutive active seasons, after 1998-2001. I mentioned that earlier when Melissa was active, although 2001's ACE was more near-normal than above-normal. For comparison, at about this time last year I predicted this year would have 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 majors and 1 or 2 category 5's. The named storm count was right in the middle of that, at 18, and we did get two cat 5's, but there were fewer hurricanes and majors than I forecast, since most of the storms this year were weak and short-lived, but with the two cat 5's, the ACE was above average. So this year was somewhat reminicent of 2007 in that regard, a lot of named storms but an average number of hurricanes and majors. Also, this season ties 2003 and 1957 for the most tropical storms to form in the Gulf of Mexico in one season, with 5 (Barry, Fernand, Imelda, Nestor, and Olga), but again, most were weak, with none of them sans Barry becoming hurricanes. Overall, the season significantly overperformed expectations in named storm count, having many more storms than the official pre-season forecasts and even one more named storm than NOAA's midseason outlook of 10-17 named storms, but was near average regarding the intensity of those storms. Unfortunately, a season as active as this one had to have at least one storm that was very notable regarding impacts, and that was Dorian, which was the second-strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in windspeed, tied with Wilma, Gilbert, and Labor Day, and behind Allen, and was the worst hurricane to hit the Bahamas on record, with over 8.2 billion in total damage. To a lesser extent, Barry caused some storm surge and flooding in the deep south in Louisiana and Arkansas, Imelda caused heavy flooding in parts of Texas north of Houston, and Lorenzo caused historic damage to the northwestern islands in the Azores. Hopefully 2020 will slow down considerably; the Atlantic has never been known to produce five consecutive active seasons in the satellite era without some sort of slowdown from El Nino or other unfavorable conditions. Ryan 1000 06:53, November 27, 2019 (UTC)

Yep, we saw an interesting season this year. It's heavily reminiscent to 2007 due to the two C5's and the large amount of weak storms. It is also unfortunate that this year couldn't go without devastating impacts due to Dorian (the worst Bahamas hurricane in memory), and to a lesser extent, Imelda (one of the wettest and most flooding storms in Texan history), Lorenzo (sunk a ship and caused significant impacts to the Azores), and maybe Barry. Dorian will be retired; Imelda and Lorenzo are wildcards and Barry is unlikely to be retired despite its impacts on the Gulf Coast. All other names not mentioned should be staying for 2025. This year is notable for its misogyny, due to the fact that no storm bearing a female name ever reached hurricane intensity while most male names did reach that strength with the exception of Fernand, Nestor, and Sebastien. Gabrielle and Melissa can call themselves the queens of the year, tying at 65 mph/995 mbar. The season also featured the record 5th consecutive time a pre-season storm formed, although that one was very weak, short-lived, and not even fully tropical. And Pablo was the northeasternmost hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic in history. There were also a high amount of storms that only peaked at 40 mph (35 knots), but that's balanced out by the two C5's we've had this year making this only the 7th season on record to feature multiple C5s and it's the fourth consecutive year to feature a C5. This season will be remembered for a while to come, especially due to storms like Dorian. Hopefully 2020 will finally give us a break from the very active and destructive seasons and we see a season like 2015, 2014, 2009, or 2006 next year (preferably 2014). ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 23:24, November 29, 2019 (UTC)

I'm so happy we got to Rebekah this year. And I would not be surprised if this season got a December bonus storm. Beatissima (talk) 07:10, November 30, 2019 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance[]

Steve's retirements & other things[]

Explanations of tabs:

Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.
Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.

Andrea: ~0%, F- - Continued the streak of pre-season storms. However, this was an epic failure, and never became fully tropical. A waste of a name if you ask me. The pre-season formation is the only thing that saved it from receiving the "Z" grade.
Barry: 18%, C - A very small chance of retirement due to the flooding it caused in and around Louisiana. Current damage total of $600 million shouldn't be enough for the U.S. to retire the name, since they usually retire storms that cause more than a billion in damage. But impacts aside, at least we saw an early first hurricane.
Three: N/A, Z - If you blinked, you missed it. Incredibly short-lived failure that brought only showers to the Bahamas and Florida.
Chantal: ~0%, F - Harmless weak tropical storm. Gets a bit of grading credit for forming unexpectedly out of the blue and lasting a few days, but still a very weak system that never surpassed 40 mph/1007 mb.
DORIAN: 99.9%, A - An absolute monster! The northern Bahamas (Abacos Islands, Grand Bahama) got absolutely devastated from this 185 mph beast. Retirement is guaranteed due to the impacts to the Bahamas (especially), the U.S., and Atlantic Canada. In the latter two, impacts might not really be enough for them to request, but Bahamas impacts should certainly be enough (I see no reason why the Bahamas would snub it). The grade could have been "S", but it is disqualified from receiving anything higher than "A" due to the horrific devastation it wrought.
Erin: 0.001%, F- - Another pathetic steal of a name. Even worse than Chantal because this didn't do anything special, although minimal damage was reported.
Fernand: 9%, E - Short-lived and affected northeastern Mexico. $213 million and 1 death shouldn't be enough for retirement.
Gabrielle: ~0%, D- - Became a strong TS, but originally had hurricane potential. Well, at least it was a fishspinner and became the strongest female name thus far this year (along with Melissa).
Humberto: 1%, A- - Impacts to Bermuda or elsewhere are not retirement-worthy. I'm glad we saw the first major "Humberto" on record and it was the first C3 peak since Ophelia '17.
Imelda: 52%, F- - A weak name-stealer but ended up bringing unusual amounts of rain to Texas, exceeding 40 inches in spots. Flooding was described as "worse than Harvey" in some places. Already 5 deaths have been reported and it's the 4th-wettest on record for Texas, with at least $2 billion in damages also reported. The "I" curse is real. This could actually get the boot... if it does, it would be the weakest ever to get retired. The chances seem to be only a bit higher than a coin toss, considering the U.S. can have pretty high standards, impacts might have been pretty localized, and snubbed storms like Isaac '12 have dealt worse damage than the current preliminary toll. I have a feeling that Imelda could be snubbed as well due to the weak nature of the storm and a damage toll that might not be enough, but the record rainfall totals and flooding are certainly convincing for retirement.
Jerry: ~0%, B- - The strongest "Jerry" on record, but it barely affected land at all and died before it could bring anything more than showers to Bermuda.
Karen: 1%, F - Caused minimal impacts and flooding throughout eastern Caribbean islands but many of the regions have seen so much worse in 2017. Not going to be retired. Yet another victim of the sexist Atlantic.
Lorenzo: 35%, A++ - This could be a wildcard for potential retirement. A very amazing C5, became the first of that intensity ever to avoid landfall in the Atlantic. But unfortunately it still sunk a ship and brought significant impacts and damage to the Azores. Even though the Azores have never requested before, it has caused a total of $362 million there and there's a chance they could request for the first time. France might also request due to the lost Bourbon Rhode ship, but who knows... These impacts prevent it from receiving the "S" grade it otherwise would've earned.
Melissa: 0.1%, D - Caused minimal impacts. Some grading credit for forming unexpectedly and getting strong enough to tie Gabrielle's windspeed.
Fifteen: N/A, F - Despite being only a weak depression, it gets grading credit for forming unusually east for the time of year.
Nestor: 5%, D- - It wasn't too horrible for the U.S., at least not enough for it to be retired. Barry was likely much worse.
Olga: 2%, Z - An absolute waste of a name, was only tropical for like 2 advisories. This might go down in history as one of the most pathetic name-stealers of all time. Caused plenty of impacts, but since it's even less than Nestor, it's not at all retirement-worthy.
Pablo: ~0%, A++ - Became a hurricane at a record northeastern part of the Atlantic in waters thought to be TOO COLD. Even Vince was not as far northeast when it was a hurricane. This even really exceeded the intensity forecasts which only called for a mid-grade TS. It'll truly live in the record books for a long time to come. No retirement because the Azores got off easy.
Rebekah: ~0%, F - Yet another weak female storm, but this didn't even become fully tropical. Basically a fishspinner unless the Azores got a bit.
Sebastien: ~0%, C+ - A late-season fishspinner that was pretty resilient. Gets some grading points for causing NHC forecasters to become perplexed at times.

Intensity colors: TD/SD, TS/SS (40-50 mph), TS/SS (60-70 mph), C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 (160-180 mph), 185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background, the color for "C5" was made more stark due to the severely of such storms, and a new color was added for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) so they would not be in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms that might be Category 6s if the category was introduced. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Retirement percentage colors: ~0%, 0%, or N/A; 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%; ~100%, 100%; TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.

Grading colors: S, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.

RETIRED: DORIAN
Likely Retired:
Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: Imelda
Likely Staying: Lorenzo
Staying: Andrea, Barry (leaning towards "Likely Staying"), Chantal, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Jerry, Karen, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien

Projected retirements for currently active storms:

N/A

Retirement chance ranges for:

"Retired": 80-100%
"Likely Retired": 60-79%
"Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
"Likely Staying": 20-39%
"Staying": 0-19%

All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Retired, Likely Retired, and Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

Dorian (RETIRED):

Dylan
Darren
Dominic
Diego
Damien
Derek
Dale
Dustin
Drake
Davis

Imelda (Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired):

Ivy
Ina
Iliana
Indira
Ivan(n)a
Imogen
Irina
Ilyssa
Isa
Iva

Predicted final replacements to be announced in spring 2020: Dorian > Damien, Imelda (not certain though) > Ivan(n)a

Current outlook:

The season ended at Sebastien.
It's likely we will see 1-3 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. The first of these systems is Dorian at the end of August-start of September, while a 2nd or even 3rd candidate would be Imelda or Lorenzo. A tiny chance exists that storms like Barry might be retired but it's highly doubtful.

The year has concluded.

The original outlook from August 24 for comparison:

I expect that this season will end at or around Lorenzo.
It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Jerry or Karen, or go further to Melissa, Nestor, or Olga.
Pablo or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Imelda or before is also unlikely.
It's likely we will see around 2 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. The first of these systems may occur at the end of August to early September, while the second one could occur in late September or October.

Chances that Dorian will be used: ~100% - TD 5 should become this.
Chances that Erin will be used: ~100% - Should form from 98L.
Chances that Fernand will be used: ~100% - May arrive in late August, or early September at the very latest.
Chances that Gabrielle will be used: 99.999% - I expect to see this in early September, or end of August if an explosion occurs.
Chances that Humberto will be used: 99% - Will most likely be an early-mid September storm.
Chances that Imelda will be used: 95% - I would literally faint if this season somehow doesn't reach this new name. It should be here in mid September.
Chances that Jerry will be used: 85% - Highly likely to reach this name. May be a late September storm.
Chances that Karen will be used: 74% - Also likely that we will reach this name, and might be an early-mid October storm.
Chances that Lorenzo will be used: 60% - If this forms, it should be in mid-late October.
Chances that Melissa will be used: 48% - May or may not form this year. If it does form, I expect to see it at the end of October or in November.
Chances that Nestor will be used: 37% - Slight chance we reach up to here. Will most likely be a late-season or post-season surprise if it does come.
Chances that Olga will be used: 25% - We will possibly not get as far as we did last year, although there's still a chance.
Chances that Pablo will be used: 16% - I will be surprised if Pablo forms this year.
Chances that Rebekah will be used: 9% - The chances have dwindled into the single digits. Tying 2017's named storms is highly unlikely to occur this year.
Chances that Sebastien will be used: 4% - Environmental conditions this year should not support this much activity. *Currently up to here*
Chances that Tanya will be used: 1% - The Atlantic will have to really explode, contrary to forecasts for this season. Not going to happen.
Chances that Van will be used: 0.5% - Not going to happen either. A strange miracle will have to take place to somehow get this far.
Chances that Wendy will be used: 0.01% - Basically no chance at all that we will exhaust the naming list this year.
Chances that Alpha or beyond will be used: ~0% - I would have a better chance at getting struck by lightning or even winning the lottery than the Atlantic getting this far in 2019.

~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 19:12, August 24, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 07:10, January 1, 2020 (UTC))

Sandy's retirements and grades[]

My turn to do retirements and grades!

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%/0.1%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%, TBA, Fail%, N/A)

(Category colors: PTC, TD/SD, TS/SS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

(Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z, TBA)

Andrea: F, 0% — Was notable for continuing the off-season streak forming in May and the sudden formation due to recon, however it was a weak and short-lived storm that never turned fully tropical. The off-season formation saved it from getting a Z.

Barry: D+, 20% — A July but ugly looking hurricane that made landfall in Louisiana, inflicting >$600 million (USD) and however only caused an indirect death. Barry was also the wettest tropical cyclone in Arkansas, dropping over 16 in (421 mm) in the state. I doubt Barry would go for its impacts since the WMO typically retire storms w/ a higher damage and death toll.

Three: Z, N/A — A short-lived and weak tropical depression. Do I even have to explain this further?

Chantal: E, 0% — A weak fish that formed out of nowhere which surprised most of us. It held on for its life for 3 days, earning a E.

Dorian: A, 100% — Wow, I’m shocked. This 185 mph monster completely devastated the Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands, leaving behind catastrophic damage in its wake. There is no way that Dorian will stay after its severe impacts not only in the Bahamas but also the U.S and Atlantic Canada.

Erin: F, 0% — A weak storm that did nothing special despite being stronger than Chantal.

Fernand: E, 2.5% — A 50 mph tropical storm that struck Mexico; only inflicted $383 million and caused 1 death.

Gabrielle: D-, 0% — Failed to become a hurricane, but was a strong tropical strong at least.

Humberto: A, 2.5% – This system alone is the first ever Major Hurricane Humberto and prevented a 2007 repeat from happening. Damages in Bermuda are minimal to minor, however a death had been caused.

Imelda: F, 55% – A pop-up 6 hour TS that drenched loads of rain in Texas, becoming the 7th wettest US tropical cyclone and the 4th wettest for Texas on record. 5 deaths have been occurred so far. Assuming the damages are unknown and it caused extreme flooding to Texas, this has a decent chance of going.

Jerry: B, 0.1% – It was nice to get another hurricane in the Atl. Stayed alive as a TS after its peak just like Kiko. Damages are not as impactful.

Karen: F, 1% — Failed miserably to get past 45 mph. Caused some minor flooding, but no deaths.

Lorenzo: A+++, 20% – A sublime C5 hurricane that broke some records. It is the easternmost C5 on record and the only C5 to not make landfall at all, but it impacted the Azores and some parts of Europe. I mean, a C5 this east, you kidding me! Unfortunately for Lorenzo, it caused a ship to sink and had some notable impacts in the Azores and Europe, raising the retirement chances to 20%. Its impacts prevented it to get an S grade.

Melissa: D+ 1% — Pulled off an unexpected formation and peaked when it first formed. Only minimal impacts were reported by this storm.

Fifteen: F, N/A — Weak storm, but unusually formed far out east.

Nestor: D-, 5% — Lasted as long as Andrea, impacted the U.S. while being post-tropical causing 3 indirect deaths.

Olga: Z, Fail% (actually 2.5%) — This is the worst fail and name-stealer I've ever seen in all my 5 years of tracking, only lasting 12 hours as an TC. Olga should've been used for a way better storm, but instead it just failed miserably.

Pablo: A+++, 0% — What a fantastic storm. It attained hurricane status at an extreme point to the northeast, it made Vince look like nothing! It also defied every forecast by doing that. Wow, now this hurricane is going on the record books. Outstanding work, Pablo! (Oh, and it didn't cause any damage and deaths to the Azores.)

Rebekah: E, 0% — Had an unusual pressure for a 45 mph storm, mainly because it was subtropical for all of its life, but nothing else notable for it.

Sebastien: C-, 0% - Caused the NHC forecasters to go crazy bc of this storm. The late-season fish was very resilient, defying most forecasts initially. However, it was forecast to be a hurricane a couple of times but it toppled out at 65, sadly.

Retirement summary:

Definitely Retired (>95%): Dorian

Most Likely Retired (75-90%): None

Likely Retired (55-70%): Imelda

Tossup (45-50%): None

Likely Not Retired (25-40%): None

Most Likely Not Retired (5-20%): Barry, Lorenzo

Definitely Not Retired (<5%): Andrea, Chantal, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Jerry, Karen, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien

Sandy 156 :) 19:52, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

[Updated as of Sandy 156 :) 00:57, December 5, 2019 (UTC)]

Beatissima's Retirement Predictions[]

SS Andrea - 0%
C1 Barry - 10%
TD Three - N/A
TS Chantal - 0%
C5 Dorian - 100%
TS Erin - 0%
TS Fernand - 5%
TS Gabrielle - 0%
C3 Humberto - 2%
TS Imelda - 75%
C2 Jerry - 0%
TS Karen - 0%
C5 Lorenzo - 25%
TS Melissa - 0%
TD Fifteen - N/A
TS Nestor - 5%
TS Olga - 2%
C1 Pablo - 0%
SS Rebekah - 0%
TS Sebastien - 0%
Tanya - 0% (never formed)
Van - 0% (never formed)
Wendy - 0% (never formed)
Greeks - N/A

Beatissima (talk) 22:31, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

ChowKam's Retirement Predictions[]

Gotta rate these juicy storms...

Andrea: 0% - Was weak. But still, a pre-season storm is nice.
Barry: 5% - A nice, weird early season hurricane. Damages shouldn't warrant retirement.
Three: N/A - While technically a failure, it was a nice depression to watch.
Chantal: 0% - Weak, but was a surprise weird formation. Lasted a bit.
Dorian: 100% - This monstrous 185-mph-storm was simply too beefy for the Bahamas. While nice to track, I hope the Bahamas can recover quickly from this storm. They need a rest from hurricanes like this.
Erin: 0% - Nice to have a storm, but it simply was not juicy enough. No land impacts. Alternate reaction: [1] - Erin: 0:14 Wind Shear: 0:27
Fernand: 5% - Surprisingly costly, but luckily not too bad. One unfortunate death. Juicier than expected.
Gabrielle: 0% - No land interaction, no retirement. Interesting degeneration and reformation.
Humberto: N/A - Currently active.
Imelda: N/A - Currently active.
Jerry: N/A - Currently active.

Note: I am rather extreme with my retirement predictions - if a storm seems unlikely to be retired, it won't be retired. If a storm seems likely to be retired, it will be retired.

ChowKam2002 (talk) 16:06, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Harveycane's predictions and grades[]

Intensity colors: TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C5 (185+ mph)

Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, Z-, TBA

Formation chance/retirement percentages:

0%
0.001-0.9% (Nearly 0%)
1-9% (Extremely unlikely)
10-19% (Very unlikely)
20-29% (Unlikely)
30-39% (Somewhat unlikely)
40-49% (Medium)
50-59% (Somewhat likely)
60-69% (Likely)
70-79% (Very likely)
80-89% (Extremely likely)
90-99% (Nearly certain)
100% (Certain)

Andrea: 0%, F - Weak, forgettable, short lived. Need I say more?

Barry: 17%, C- - One of the ugliest "hurricanes" I've ever seen, for that reason it gets a C-. However, at least we got a hurricane.

Three: N/A%, Z - Sorry, but you were one pathetic storm. We all thought we would see Chantal from this, but nope.

Chantal: 0%, F - After over a month and a half of waiting for the next named storm to form, all we get is this forgettable failure. However, its still better than nothing.

Dorian: 100%, A- - I can safely say for sure that this is going this year. The Bahamas were ANNIHILATED by this storm, as well as the US and Canada. Gets an A- for defying predictions of it being a fail and became a category 5 hurricane, but at the same time damages limit the grade form going any higher. (Replacement name: Diego)

Erin: 0%, F- - Basically a "pop up storm" during Dorian that did nothing but waste a name. Don't take the Eastern Pacifc's habits with you next time.

Fernand: 6%, E - Short lived tropical storm that caused flooding in northeastern Mexico. Impacts are not enough to warrant retirement.

Gabrielle: 0%, E - Had hurricane potential, didn't reach it. I had higher expectations for this.

Humberto: TBA, TBA - Currently active. As of now, it is threatening Bermuda. Hopefully impacts aren't severe (which it shouldn't).

Imelda: Up to 80%*, F - Not only it was a prime example of a name stealer, but a destructive one as well. Caused record breaking flooding in parts of Texas, but damage toll remains unknown. The only reason why it didn’t get a Z grade because of its surprise formation.

Jerry: TBA, TBA - Currently active.

* Imelda’s damage toll remains TBD, thus it says up to 80%.

Overall season rating (tentative): C - Despite being crappy in the first part of the year, it managed to pull a 2018 and start a massive increase in activity. It can be near average by the end of the season.

Future storm chances (SUBJECT TO CHANGE):

Fernand: 100% - May appear around peak season.
Gabrielle: 100% - Will form sometime around the peak of the season.
Humberto: 100% - We could possibly see this in late September.
Imelda: 91% - Can form by early October, as long as the uptick in activity actually happens.
Jerry: 78% - Unless activity is doomed to be inactive the whole year, we will most likely see this.
Karen: 63% - This is around where my certainty of these numbers begins to fall. We may see this or not depending on the basin's performance.
Lorenzo: 45% - This is probably where we will end this year, presuming that the season will have a near average September-October.
Melissa: 32% - May come as a late season surprise.
Nestor: 25% - Storm names from here are unlikely to be used. Unless we get an "explosion" in activity, this is unlikely.
Olga: 17% - Unfortunately, we may not go this far at this rate. Reaching up to 2018's levels of activity is very unlikely.
Pablo: 9% - I don't think we will get here this season.
Rebekah: 4% - Very, very unlikely.
Sebastien: 1% - You will have to defy climatology to get here at this point.
Tanya: 0.5% - Again, you can't get here without defying climatology.
Van, Wendy and beyond: 0% - If you think we will get to here you are crazy. Jk, but seriously, it is NOT likely at all to get this far into the season.

Harveycane (Talk | Contributions) 08:46, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

Jas's shenanigans: retirement predictions, storm grades, etc.[]

Retirement chances:

Andrea - 0% - Should be back in 2025.
Barry - 3% - Had some impacts, but honestly Barry is here to stay.
Chantal - 0% - Thanks for waking up the Atlantic, but will remain in the lists.
Dorian - 99.9% - The impacts in The Bahamas would be enough to warrant the retirement of this historic storm.
Erin - 0% - Just no.
Fernand - 10% - Maybe, just maybe. Mexico is still notorious for their record in retiring names of destructive storms.
Gabrielle - 1% - Thanks for trying to be a hurricane, but Gab shall return in 2025.
Humberto - 2% - Had some impacts in Bermuda, but most likely will remain in the lists.
Imelda - 45% - Still kinda low for Texas's 4th wettest tropical cyclone, but it is now considered the costliest Atlantic system of 2019. The death toll is low though, and that might affect Imelda's retirement chances.
Jerry - 1.5% - Similar to Humberto, but really did nothing. That 1.5 percent is only there because it became a hurricane.
Karen - 3% - The flooding in Tobago looks pretty bad, but so far Karen has not caused any fatalities.
Lorenzo - 25% - Still active, but the Azores must watch out.
Melissa - 0% - Eh?
Nestor - 0.1% - Should return in 2025 nonetheless.
Olga - 0% - See Melissa.
Pablo - 2.5% - For becoming a hurricane in an unusual place, I gave Pablo 2.5%. Realistically, he should be back in 2025.
Rebekah - 0% - See Olga.
Sebastien - 0.5% - Could've gave Seb 3.5% had he been a hurricane.

Storm grades:

(Highest is A+++, lowest is Z, TDs are excluded, unless they are significant enough.)

Andrea - F - A preseason storm, and that's it. Epic fail though.
Barry - C - Had some impacts, but surprised me for reaching hurricane status.
Chantal - L - A sacrificial lamb, I guess. Took the L to pave the way for other storms.
Dorian - B- - If there's something which can be called a "beautiful" disaster, it would be this one. Beautiful to see from outer space, but a monster on the Earth's surface. Would have been A+++ had it not affected The Bahamas, but since it wreaked havoc that country (at least $7 billion damages, 50+ deaths, 1,300 missing), its grade has been brought down to B minus.
Erin - Z - Very unremarkable, sorry.
Fernand - F - Not really a fail (since it affected land), but very irrelevant to be honest.
Gabrielle - C- - A good distraction from the freak that is Dorian, but otherwise not that notable.
Humberto - A+ - While not as strong as Dorian, and while it also had impacts in Bermuda, Humberto was a spectacle. Very pleasing to the eyes.
Imelda - F- - F minus because while I am still at awe with its rapid intensification (from a 30/30 invest into a full-blown TS in a matter of hours), Imelda is just a very weak storm. Very very weak, as it actually had the lowest ACE for an Atlantic storm, ever. Not to mention the flooding it caused in southeast Texas. Such a nasty name-stealer.
Jerry - B - Could have had a higher grade had it became a major, but a fishspinning C2 is fine.
Karen - D+ - For the effort to stay long, although later gave up due to unfavorable conditions.
Lorenzo - A+ - Probably the best storm/system of 2019. Could've gotten A+++ had it not been for the impacts in the Azores, which is pretty significant.
Melissa - Z - See Erin.
Nestor - F - Also irrelevant like Fernand.
Olga - Z - See Melissa.
Pablo - A - One of the unexpected surprises of the season. An A for achieving hurricane status on cold waters off the Iberian Peninsula.
Rebekah - Z - See Olga.
Sebastien - B- - Could have been higher had Seb reached C1 status, nonetheless a fun system to watch.

~~Storm formation percentages:~~

~~(Some names include wild guesses on their intensities)~~

~~Melissa - 90% - Most likely will form. Given the trend this season, this will be weak, but not sure about the impacts.~~
~~Nestor - 85% - Most likely will form. Probably another strong system, may or may not affect land areas.~~
~~Olga - 65% - Most likely will form. Not sure about the intensity yet, but maybe she'll redeem the List V women. Hopefully a fishspinner though.~~
~~Pablo - 45% - May or may not form. Possibly the last name to be used this season. May peak as a subtropical storm or a TS if used.~~
~~Rebekah - 30% - May not form this season. But there's still a chance, a chance that is gradually increasing. Maybe a C1 to redeem the women?~~
Sebastien - 20% - May not form this season. Though I low key hope that this year would go all the way up to this name, I feel that it will end at Rebekah. If this forms however, I am expecting a strong TS or a C1.
~~Tanya - 10% - May not form this season. But there's still a very slight chance. Would be a TS or an SS at best.~~
~~Van - 0% - Nah. A hyperactive final two (or three (if including off-season)) months should happen to reach this name. Probably a TS if (and only if) it forms.~~
~~Wendy, Alpha and beyond - 0% - Nah. Atlantic needs to be on steroids in order for this name to be used this year. Won't happen at all.~~

[Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:32, August 28, 2019 (UTC). Last edited and updated by Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:11, January 21, 2020 (UTC).]

Lee’s retirement predictions[]

Might as well start this now, with Dorian becoming more and more of a threat. I won’t be doing ratings this year.

Andrea- 0%: It was nice that we were able to keep the pre-season streak going, but Andrea didn’t do anything, so nope.
Barry- 20%: Caused some damage and flooding, but I don’t see it going anywhere.
Chantal- 0%: Nope
Dorian- 100%: Tied with the Labor Day Hurricane for strongest landfalling hurricane in the Atlantic, decimating parts of the Bahamas in the process. Caused some impacts in the US and Atlantic Canada as well, and even if retirement isn’t requested by either country, the absolutely catastrophic damage done by the 185 mph monster in the Bahamas is more than enough to guarantee Dorian’s retirement in 2020. Replacement name picks: Dylan, Devon, Davin, Dax, Darrell, Dale, Doug, Derek (Lot of options to choose from with the letter D)
Erin- 0%: Not going anywhere.
Fernand- 5%: Ended up being somewhat worse than initially thought, but still not likely to go anywhere, especially due to Mexico's track record when it comes to retirement
Gabrielle- 0%: See Erin.
Humberto- 2%: Sadly caused a fatality, but retirement is not at all likely.
Imelda- 50% Imelda is a tough one. Some areas in Texas reported flooding worse than Hurricane Harvey, however it was mainly localized flooding. In comparison, tropical storms Amelia and Claudette caused heavy localized flooding in Texas a year apart from each other and neither were retired. Also, exact damage figures haven’t come out yet, so for now I’m putting it at an even 50/50. Depending on damage totals, this figure could go up or down. Replacement names: Ivy, Isa, Inga (Basically the same choices I put during Irma, with the addition of Inga. Even though they’ve both already been used for typhoons, I’ve wanted to see the names Ivy and Isa on the list for years now.)
Jerry- 0%: Certainly a redemption for past storms named Jerry, but it was a fish, so absolutely no chance at retirement.
Karen- 5%: Caused some flooding in the Antilles, but impacts were relatively minor, and those areas have been hit harder in just the past two years alone. I don’t see Karen getting retired.
Lorenzo- 30%: Easternmost Atlantic Category 5 on record, responsible for the sinking of a ship, causing deaths. Also impacted the Azores. More than likely won’t be retired but there is still a chance.
Melissa- 0%: See Erin and Gabrielle
Nestor- 5%: Caused 3 deaths and some US impacts, but it shouldn’t be going anywhere either.
Olga- 0%: Was only tropical for like 2 advisories. Absolutely not going anywhere.
Pablo- 0%: Impressive hurricane in the far northeast Atlantic, but stayed out to sea. Pablo will return in 2025 assuming we get that far down the list.
Rebekah- 0%: Fish. Rebekah isn’t going anywhere.
Sebastien- 0%: Another fish. Sebastian isn’t going anywhere either

Leeboy100 ^Hello! 21:59, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

IbAHAn1829's/The Chosen Wizard's Name Retirement Chances[]

Atlantic Hurricane:[]

This season was more active than most in terms of total storms.

Subtropical Storm Faildrea - Nice job that you formed *ahem* BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED AGAIN! Seriously, so many pre-season storms for me, almost TOO much. Plus, 40 mph for like 18 hours won't do it for me. (0%)
Hurricane Barry - Flooded areas inland under its ginormous blanket of rain, of course there's gonna be a retirement chance, albeit a small one. (20%)
Tropical Storm Chantal - ATL: How far north do you want to form? Chantal: Yes. Polar Bears: Well, we're screwed. (0%)
Hurricane Dorian - Hulking category 5 hurricane that almost wiped out some of the Bahamian islands. The name will be retired. (99%)
Tropical Storm Erin Failed - Nothing. (0%)
Tropical Storm Fernand - Made landfall on Mexico, that's it. It also rained a lot. (1%)
Tropical Storm Gabrielle - Half-failed because although it persisted in the wind shear, it also never became a hurricane. (0%)
Hurricane Humberto - Hit Bermuda. (20%)
Tropical Storm Imelda - Rained a lot, so much so that it is causing people to need WATER RESCUES. Yeah, the name will be retired. (99%)
Hurricane Jerry - The mouse from Tom and Jerry. Something Bermuda needed to watch. Luckily it didn't do too much to them. (0%)
Tropical Storm Karen - Fail but actually caused some flooding and power-grid problems in Puerto Rico. (0%)
Hurricane Lorenzo - Yes, an (almost) fishspinner C5. I think the C5 upgrade made its landfall in the Azores fated. (30%)
Tropical Storm Melissa - Nothing much to say. (0%)
Tropical Storm Nestor - Did stuff to Florida. (2%)
Tropical Storm Olga - Why?? (0%)
Hurricane Pablo - Well, that happened. Polar bears must be really freaking out now. (0%)
Subtropical Storm Rebekah - Took 24 years for this name to be used and the storm ended up being weak. (0%)
Tropical Storm Sebastien - Maybe the last storm of the season? (0%)

TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 14:03, November 21, 2019 (UTC)

PhTracking's Retirement Predictions and Grading[]

Welp, might as well make one of these grades and retirement predictions. Grades run from F- to A+.

Andrea - Cool pre-season storm that continued a 4 year streak, however, it only lasted 18 hours, and was also a 40 mph subtropical fail. Just another good name put to bad use. (0% retirement, D)

Barry - A July hurricane, made landfall while peaking. Caused floods inland. Ugly with an exposed circulation, only lasted 6 hours as a hurricane. (20% retirement, C)

03L - ...why? (N/A retirement, F-)

Chantal - Weak storm, formed at a high latitude. Was a surprise, but a failure nonetheless. (0% retirement, D-)

Dorian - Costliest disaster in Bahamian history. 55 reported direct deaths according to Wikipedia with likely a lot more. At least $7.5 billion in damages. Also affected Atlantic Canada; retirement is imminent. Oh, and all the nasty things it did lowered its grade. (100% retirement, B)

Erin - An absolute failure of a storm. Exposed LLCC, was projected to form EARLIER than Dorian. The only thing Erin is important for is to boost the storm totals. (0% retirement, F)

Fernand - Weak and short-lived storm in the gulf, at least not a 40 mph fail. Oh, and it actually does have quite a bit of convection, so that's a plus. (1% retirement, C-)

Gabrielle - Strong tropical storm that degenerated into a RL once, also sort of formed in the MDR. Cool fish storm, but stayed as a TS. (0% retirement, C+)

Humberto - A major, mostly a fish, but went by Bermuda. Threw hurricane-force winds on the area and causing several blackouts. Not worthy of retirement so far. (7% retirement, B+)

Imelda - Weak short-lived tropical storm that stalled over Texas rainfall, causing record flooding in some areas. ~~I'm not sure if it'll get retired or not.~~ eOOO- $8 billion in damages?! Oh dear. (100% retirement, D+)

Jerry - Category 2 peak, but a TS for most of its life and was quite sad. (0.2% retirement, C)

Karen - Quite a weak and boring TS but a weird one to track nonetheless. (0.01% retirement, D+)

Lorenzo - Currently active.

ph tracking 09:33, October 2, 2019 (UTC)

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions[]

List 5 has never gone a single season without having at least 1 retired name since 1979, and with Dorian's devastation, this year is no exception...nonetheless, I, Ryan Grand, will make my retirement speech once again:

Andrea - 0% - Well hey, you gotta give her credit for giving the Atlantic a record 5 consecutive years with a pre-season storm, but that aside, it was just a minor rainshower or wave kickup to Bermuda.

Barry - 18% - Caused somewhat extensive damage and flooding in parts of the south, but it probably won't cut for retirement.

Chantal - 0% - Not a ChanCEtal (forgive the pun, couldn't resist).

Dorian - 100% - Was the costliest storm in the Bahamas's history and the deadliest hurricane to hit the archapelago in 93 years, since the 1926 Nassau hurricane, which killed over 250 people in the nation's capital. Damage in the islands was nerfed from 7 billion to 3.4 billion after reanalysis, but that's still more than enough for the Bahamas to axe Dorian in 2020.

Erin - 0% - Like Chantal, no.
Fernand - 10% - Caused somewhat extensive flooding in some areas of Tamaulipas, with a damage bill of roughly 213 million USD and 1 death. However, Mexico has snubbed worse storms than Fernand in the past, so he will probably stay for 2025.
Gabrielle - 0% - Turned north too soon and didn't affect land.
Humberto - 2% - Sadly, Humberto was confirmed to have killed 1 or 2 people due to surf and rip currents on the U.S. eastern seaboard, and caused power outages on Bermuda, but fortunately there was little damage and no deaths on Bermuda.
Imelda - 40% - Earlier estimates of damage were around 6-8 billion, before being nerfed to 2 billion, and finally now being upped to 5 billion. That may seem severe, but the U.S. has higher retirement standards now than in the past due to inflation, and we didn't retire Isaac of 2012 for 2.3 billion at that time, so there is a chance that Imelda's 5 billion might not quite make it for retirement, though it also could happen.
Jerry - 0% - Made up for his previous two epic fails intensity-wise, but still, a fishspinner's a fishspinner.
Karen - 4% - Caused some flooding in the eastern Caribbean, but wasn't too severe, certainly nothing compared to Irma and Maria two years ago.
Lorenzo - 50% - Lorenzo did kill 19 people from sinking the French ship Bourbon Rhode out at sea, and from distant high surf on the U.S. east coast, while also causing very extensive storm surge and wind damage to parts of the Azores, especially to the ports on Flores, on top of the images and videos that I showed before. According to this article written by Dr. Masters, the 367 million in damage that Lorenzo did to Flores Island makes him the worst hurricane in the Azores' history, since no other hurricane has ever been anywhere near as destructive for the Azores as Lorenzo was. The only thing going against Lorenzo is that the Azores have never historically been known to ask for the retirement of a hurricane name before, but they are a member of the WMO's hurricane committee (they provided a report on Hurricane Alex in 2016) so they theoretically could request Lorenzo to be retired, and as Fabian and Juan in 2003 showed, just because someplace may not have a retirement record, doesn't mean they can't start one.
Melissa - 1% - Not much different than her previous two incarnations, though early in her lifetime she did bring some surf and impacts to New England.
Nestor - 12% - Some damage for the gulf coast, with 3 deaths, but not retirement-worthy.
Olga - 10% - Slightly less severe than Nestor.
Pablo - 0% - Became the northeasternmost Atlantic hurricane on record in the face of seemingly unfavorable conditions, but fortunately caused no damage or loss of life to the Azores.
Rebekah - 0% - Got us to the "R" name once again, and my mom's name too, but a fish is a fish.
Sebastien - 0% - A fishspinner tropical storm caps off the very active 2019 season.

Ryan 1000 22:26, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Ȝeſtikl's Retirement Chances and Grades[]

sS Andrea - 0% > D > Didn't affect land.
C1 Barry - 25% > C > Some impacts to the Gulf coast, but certainly not enough to warrant retirement.
TD Three - 0% > F > Short-lived TD that showered Florida and the Bahamas.
TS Chantal - 0% > D > See Andrea.
C5 Dorian - 95% > B > Dorian was a monster that destroyed the Bahamas.
TS Erin - 0% > D > See Andrea.
TS Fernand - 12% > D > Impacted Mexico as a Tropical Storm and caused a lot of damage.
TS Gabrielle - 0% > D > See Andrea.
C3 Humberto - 6% > A > Impacted Bermuda.
C2 Jerry - 1% > B > Brushed the Antilles.
TS Imelda - 55% > F > Lots of rainfall and massive flooding.
TS Karen - 6% > D > Caused extensive damage to Tobago, but probably not enough to warrant retirment.
C5 Lorenzo - 40% > A > C5. Unfortunately affected the Azores and killed 4 on the Bourbon Rhode.
TS Melissa - 6% > C > Another tropical storm that rained on the Mid-Atlantic.
TD Fifteen - 0% > D > Easternmost TC on record, good job, but you failed to get named.
TS Nestor - 6% > D > Short-lived TS that turned extratropical in the Gulf.
TS Olga - 1% > F > Even shorter-lived TS that also turned extratropical in the Gulf.
TS Pablo - 2% > A > Pablo became a hurricane when not forecast to, brought minor impacts to the Azores, and travelled really fast.
sS Rebekah - 0% > C >

Ȝeſtikl (talk) 20:36, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

TG's Retirements at a glance[]

Retirement percentage colors: ~0%, 0%, or N/A; 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%; ~100%, 100%; TBA

Andrea - 0% - F: Although Andrea was a pre-season storm, it was pretty much garbage.
Barry - 20 - C-: Barry thankfully didn't live up to its forecasts, and if it did, the chances of retirement would be much higher than 20%. Barry didn't look too great, but it did at least reach hurricane strength. With damages being around $600 million and a low death toll, it is unlikely that Barry is retired.
Chantal - 0% - F: Another failicia.
Dorian - 100% - A+: Not given A+ because of damages or deaths, but in regards to the absolute intensity of this storm. Dorian was the definition of a monster, stronger than Irma even, and we thought that no storm could've topped that in the near future, but here we are with Dorian. 185/910. It's hard to believe. It is by far the costliest storm to ever strike the Bahamas, and the most powerful landfalling system in decades. Good riddance, Dorian.
Erin - 0% - F: Lol no, see you in 2025.
Fernand - 15 - D+: A sad BoC storm that produced quite a bit of damage, and a few deaths unfortunately. However, $383 million in damages most likely does not warrant retirement.
Gabrielle - 0% - D-: Gabrielle was just another storm, not too much interesting about it.
Humberto - 5% - A-: Our second major, and to be honest, a pretty interesting storm by its track. Impacted Bermuda, but not enough to have major damages.
Imelda - 50% - D-: Imelda was one of the wettest TCs on record in the US, and the 4th wettest in Texas, with rainfall totals of over 40 inches. Areas in Southeast Texas received devastating flooding, but due to these impacts being more localized than Harvey, the chances of Imelda being retired is the flip of a coin. It's too early to tell, but once damages come out, the chances will either be upped or lowered.
Jerry - 0% - TBD: Currently active.

Retirements summed up:

Will be retired (80-100%): Dorian
Maybe retired (50-80%): Imelda
Slight chance (20-50%): Barry
Will not be retired (0-20%): All other storms

Owen's Retirement Predictions:[]

I figure it is time to release what I'm thinking.

Seasonal breakdown: []

The storms for which I have given 0% do not require much of an explanation. Names in bold are those with at least 50% chance of being retired.

Andrea - 0%
Barry - 10% - The ~$600M USD damage total is nothing to cast off as minimal, but even Hurricane Juan of 1985 brought a much larger damage toll of $1.5 billion and was snubbed.
Chantal - 0%
Dorian - 100% - The damage in the Bahamas was catastrophic, and easily made Dorian the worst hurricane they've ever seen. I expect the death toll will reach into the thousands.
Erin - 0%
Fernand - 15% - Over $300M USD in damages from extensive flooding, but likely won't be enough. I give a slightly higher percentage to him due to Mexico's slight unpredictability.
Gabrielle - 0%
Humberto - 5% - Bermuda seems to have made it out alright, with no deaths reported. This was no Fabian.
Imelda - 30% - Catastrophic flooding reported in Texas, with some areas even noting it was 'worse than Harvey' but it does appear that the flooding was a bit more localized. Damages are now estimated in excess of $2 billion, which sounds like a lot at first glance, but Hurricane Isaac of 2012 caused $3 billion and didn't get the boot. In order for Imelda's odds to rise, estimates probably need to go to about $5 billion or higher.
Jerry - 0%
Karen - 0%
Lorenzo - 25% - The Azores did not take this one lightly, and there was clear wind and surge damage from his passing through the islands. The real question is what the damage toll amounts to be, and factoring in the possibility that Lorenzo will be the first storm to be requested for retirement by the Azores.
Melissa - 0%
Nestor - 5% - Although the post-tropical system wrought some havoc in Florida and spawned some damaging tornadoes, it's highly likely that it won't be enough to get the name removed.
Olga - 0%
Pablo - 0%
Rebekah - 0%
Sebastien - 0%

Replacement names: []

This category is specific for names above with at least 25% chance of being retired in the spring of 2020. The name in italic is the one I predict will replace the name should it face removal by the World Meteorological Organization.

Retiree candidate #1 -> Dorian

Damien
Declan
Derek
Diego
Dylan

Retiree candidate #2 -> Imelda

Ilysia
Ilyssa
Imelia
Imogen
Ivy

Retiree candidate #3 -> Lorenzo

Leo
Levi
Logan
Lucas
Luigi

Owen 04:55, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

SHP's Grades and Retirement Predictions[]

Intensity colors: TD, TS/STS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5

Grade colors: S, A+, A, A-, B, C, D, E, F, Failippe

Note: Rank S is reserved for storms with minimal/no land impact.

Andrea: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 0%: Yet another pre-season storm, and definitely the least impressive member of the streak.
Barry: Grade- D - Retirement chance- 10%: A terrible-looking system that thankfully kept most of its moisture away from land. Needless to say, Louisiana has seen much, much worse.
Chantal: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 0%: Spun around over water and did nothing.
DORIAN: Grade- A+ - Retirement chance- 100%: What a monster this was. He reached an undeniably impressive intensity, with him snatching Irma's record of strongest non-MDR hurricane, but that horrifying wrath was tragically unleashed on the northern Bahamas for over 2 days, dealing untold damage and killing potentially over 1000 people. It may have only dealt a glancing blow to the US, but its carnage in the Bahamas alone is enough to secure its retirement and a place in the history books.
Erin: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 0%: A blip on the map that was swiftly forgotten in the wake of Dorian.
Fernand: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 5%: A short-lived system that dealt more damage than anticipated in Mexico, but not enough to warrant retirement.
Gabrielle: Grade- E - Retirement chance- 0%: Also overshadowed by Dorian, but at least made a run at hurricane status.
Humberto: Grade- B - Retirement chance- 3%: Quite a large storm that delivered minor impacts to Bermuda.
IMELDA: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 55%: This system was not only a downright pathetic name stealer, but also an Allison-caliber rainmaker that drenched parts of southeast Texas even worse than Harvey. There are no redeeming qualities about this system, and the only thing saving it from being a Failippe is notoriety. The retirement chance is subject to change as damage estimates/fatality anmouncements are released.
Jerry: Grade- C Retirement chance: 0%: Tried and failed to do what Humberto did.
Karen: Grade- F - Retirement chance- 1%: Underperformed for its entire lifespan, and dumped rain on areas that have seen much worse. Definitely staying.
Lorenzo: Grade- A+ - Retirement chance- 15%: A surprise Cat. 5 that reached that intensity further east than any other storm in the Atlantic. This would normally warrant an S rank, but he unfortuntely sank a French ship and delivered considerable impacts to the Azores. I still consider him to be this year's best storm though.
Melissa: Grade- D - Retirement Chance- 0%: Gets points for a surprise formation and a decent peak, but not that impressive overall.
Nestor: Grade- F - Retirement Chance- .01%: Did impact the US as an extratropical system, but damages seem to be minimal.
Olga: Grade- Failippe - Retirement Chance- no%: yeah
Pablo: Grade- A - Retirement Chance- 0%: And here we have this year's awesome oddball. He formed out of nowhere, got a speeding ticket, and strengthened into a hurricane further northeast than any other over ~20°C waters, all while doing next to no damage. He was a very fun system to track, and worthy redeemeer for Olga's failure.
Rebekah: Grade- E Retirement Chance- 0%- Gets a few points for being the first Rebekah, but she was unfortunately wholly unremarkable outside of that.
Sebastien: Grade- C - Retirement Chance- 0%- He got stronger than initially expected and was quite resilient for this time of year, but ultimately failed to reach hurricane status. It was fun to see the forecasters get annoyed by this storm though.

Will be edited when necessary. Send Help Please (talk) 19:54, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Java's Retirement Estimates[]

Andrea - 0% - Failed. With far too many pre-season storms around, my respect for them has taken a hit.
Barry - 10% - Looked rather disorganised for a hurricane. Damage doesn't seem to be enough for retirement, and it has been masked by Dorian too.
Chantal - 0% - Nothing special, except for its surprise formation.
DORIAN - BYE% - You're fired!
Erin - Fail% - NO.
Fernand - 5% - Since it is Mexico we're dealing with, Fernand gets a lower chance than would be expected for $213 million in damage.
Gabrielle - Weak sister of Lee 2017. No land affected so no retirement.
Humberto - 10% - Bermuda has seen worse than this.
IMELDA - GONE% - With damages approaching Allison, this already stands a big chance of getting the boot. Moreover, Trump might simply have this retired to protect his Texan votes.
Jerry - 1% - Not enough damage for retirement.
Karen - Fail% - NO.
Lorenzo - 50% - Oh boy. This is a tough call. This caused unprecedented damage in the Azores, so this could get the boot. However, the Azores have never retired a name before, so I'll hold this at 50/50.
Melissa - 1% - Damage in the NE US is pretty low.
Nestor - 10% - Damage is at $150 million, but I doubt it.
Olga - 10% - $100 million in damage was caused, but unlikely to go.
Pablo - 0% - For all its extraordinary achievements, this seems to have had very little impact on land.
Rebekah - Fail% - NO.
Sebastien - 1% - Impacts in the Azores should be minimal at most.

-- JavaHurricane 07:58, November 27, 2019 (UTC)

Replacement names[]

Male "D" names (For Dorian)[]

Since Dorian absolutely slaughtered the Abaco Islands as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record, it's safe to assume that....erhm, Dorian Gray is our first guaranteed retirement candidate. That being said, what are your thoughts on replacement names? Here are some, copied from Don in 2017 (which had no real chance to be retired anyways):

Dylan
Diego
Damien
Drake
Derek
Dale
Dexter
Drew
Darren
Daryl
Dominic
Draco
Dante
Devan
Davion
Donovan
Declan
Desmond
Duane
Devin
Dustin

Obviously Dylan should be our top pick, but Darren, Derek, Dante, Davion, Dexter, Diego, ect, are good too. A lot of good male "D" names are available. Ryan 1000 12:05, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

:') --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 01:25, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Dylan would be really excited if his name was chosen lol. I don't know if they will chose Drake due to the famous singer/rapper of the same name. I suspect that the NHC will choose something like Damien, Dominic, Darren, Dale, or Derek for the 2025 list. Maybe Dylan is possible too but I have more of a feeling that those other names might be picked instead. I would love it if Dylan was the choice though. ~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 22:45, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

Delany, Darcy, Dionysis, Derry, Dagobert, Doug, Declan. Beatissima (talk) 01:26, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Dominic, Darren, Desmond and Dale are okay, but my top 4 right now: Drew, Damien, Derek, and Dylan (my top pick). Dan would be a good pick too (though it sounds like a shortened version of EPac's Daniel). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:36, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

EPac has Douglas, but I went ahead and put Doug, anyway. I think there's a precedent for different forms of a name being used simultaneously, but I can't remember the specific examples. Beatissima (talk) 01:44, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

There are many examples of two names being on the Atlantic and EPac lists at the same time that are similar to each other, I mentioned this before with Matthew in 2016 (it was replaced with Martin itself which is a variation of the EPac's Marty on list 1). Also, David was retired after 1979 and replaced with Danny while Daniel was in the EPac at that same time and both names are still in use today, as well as 1999's Floyd being retired and replaced with Franklin while Frank was already in the EPac and both names are still in use today. So Doug and Dan are definitely possibilities, but Dylan is still my top pick. Ryan 1000 02:26, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Another few suggestions I have are Donovan, Devin/Devon, and Desmond. TG 2019 13:50, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

If it would be The Bahamas that gets impacted the most, Dominic/Declan/Donovan/Dan/Dale are the best possible replacement names. If it would be the U.S., they might go for Diego/Derek/Dylan/Darren/Drew. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Strongly disagree with Anon 2.0 here. I think there is a theme per naming list every year. The names used this year have a very urban, diverse feel to them and the replacement names usually reflect that, even the ones picked by the US which always tend towards the old fashioned side in most cases. Here's my take on this dilemma based on what I think each country would go for should they request retirement:

Bahamas: Dante, Deshawn, Declan, Dominic
USA: Dylan, Derek, Darren, Diego

Dante is a name commonly used among Black people as well as Dorian so I won't be surprised if that ends up being the replacement name, also given the urban feel to this naming list. More British-y sounding names like Declan (O'Donnelly) and Dominic (Raab) are possible if Bahamas is picking. Diversity also is key to this list as a whole so I highly doubt they would choose a name common among baby boomer, white Americans, unlike, say last year's list. There are mostly Gen X and Millennial names here. The mix is crucial. So I personally would say Dante is my first choice. Diego would be acceptable too and likely would only fit in this Atlantic list. PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:50, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Well, I concur. Dante and Diego would sound good in this list, knowing that this is the most diverse of the six being used by NHC. (Though I'm still kinda wondering why did you say that you disagree with me when you put the very same names that I listed there, save for Drew for the U.S. and Dante/Dan/Dale/Donovan in the names that Bahamas would possibly propose as replacement/s for Dorian). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:13, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

because you didn't mention dante or diego. I actually see either of those two being used, dante especially if the bahamas is requesting retirement. Dante is common among both black and hispanic populations, bahamas is mostly black and it'll only fit in well with this diverse naming list. PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:52, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Considering the Bahamas will most likely make the case, Dante would be a likely choice from them. Diego and Dominic, or even Donovan are possibilities too, though I would still personally prefer Dylan. Ryan 1000 22:26, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Personally I'd still prefer Dan (given the fact that NHC chose Martin which is quite similar to Marty), but at this point I can see Diego replacing it (a name which I actually put in my post; I edited it even before PeterPiper replied and disagreed with my comment: I put mine at 14:14 UTC of August 31, PeterPiper replied at 16:50 UTC of August 31). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:10, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Some more that haven't been mentioned:

Darius

Denzel

Darnell

Dax

Delmar
Denny

I particualrly like Dax and Denzel. --Whiplash (talk) 00:15, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

I think they will choose Damien as the replacement since Dorian and dean is a greek origin name.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 02:31, March 22, 2020 (UTC)

Female "I" Names (Potentially for Imelda)[]

Despite the fact that it peaked as a very short-lived, weak TS, it's producing catastrophic flooding in Texas that has been described as "worse than Harvey" in some spots. This could actually have a chance of retirement in my opinion. What names would you guys suggest? Here's mine:

Ivy
Ina
Iliana
Indira
Ivan(n)a
Imogen
Irina
Ilyssa
Isa
Iva

~ Steve Talk Page My Edits 📧 00:37, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

I would like to add Ivonne and Inga to that list as well. Ivy, however, definitely fits into this list much better, and would be a top pick, most likely. TG 2019 00:59, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Imma, as in "Imma bout to run out of ideas for names that start with 'I'". Beatissima (talk) 03:13, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Ivy and Ina/Inna are my top picks, but Iva, Ivonne, Imogen, Ignatia/Ignacia, Inga, Irina & Ita may be chosen too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 04:54, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Ivy, Irina, and Inga are my personal 3 favorites for Imelda, though Isa, Ina and Imogen are also good picks. Ivan(n)a is a possibility but I personally think it's too close to Ivan, retired only 15 years ago. Ryan 1000 07:05, September 21, 2019 (UTC)

You never know. Francine sounds a lot like Frances.

Male "L" Names (Potentially for Lorenzo)[]

Although it didn't officially make landfall, Lorenzo was large enough to cause fairly extensive storm surge and wind damage to parts of the northwestern Azores, submerging the coastal port on the island of Flores and destroying houses, downing trees, and power lines there too, leading to over 360 million dollars in damage. It may be a bit of a long shot, but there is a chance the Azores could make a (first ever) retirement case for Lorenzo, if that toll is severe enough for them. So, if the Azores do make a case, what do you think will replace Lorenzo? Here are some names, and like before, these were previously posted for Lane last year in the EPac, which was also a wild card for retirement:

Lucas/Luke
Luigi
Liam
Linus
Lionel
Lazlo
Lucifer
Leo(n)
Leonard(o)
Logan
Levi
Lennon
Layton
Landon
Laurence
Lance
Lamar
Luciano

Luigi should be our top pick because his brother Mario is on this year's EPac naming list. Would only make sense. But Lucas/Luke, Liam, Linus, Leo(n), Leonard(o), Lander, Logan, Landon, ect are also good. Ryan 1000 20:40, October 2, 2019 (UTC)

Oo, I love that Mario and Luigi idea! Beatissima (talk) 03:24, October 4, 2019 (UTC)

Bad Replacement Names[]

Just for fun.

D: Dick, Dukey, Dilbert, Dobby, Dong, Danger. Beatissima (talk) 01:31, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Would be Donald for me. Not only because of the U.S. President, but also because of Don in list 3. But we'll never know... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

"Hurricane Dick is so big" ... --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 21:41, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

My pick would be Dooley, after that guy from King of the Hill. Send Help Please (talk) 09:40, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Donkey Kong. Beatissima (talk) 23:04, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

I: Ivanka

Above comment left by Beatissima

L: Lol

--Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 15:00, October 11, 2019 (UTC)

Ligma. Send Help Please (talk) 15:22, October 11, 2019 (UTC)

Lingus. Lucifer. Lucky. Hundreds killed by Hurricane Lucky. Beatissima (talk) 23:57, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

Indira. That would be another Adolph-Isis-Israel business due to the late Indian Prime Minister. -- JavaHurricane 08:02, November 27, 2019 (UTC)

Post-season Changes[]

Name	Operational Intensity and Duration	Reanalysis Intensity and Duration	TCR Release Date
Andrea	40 mph, 1006 mbars, May 20-21	40 mph, 1006 mbars, May 20-21	August 6, 2019
Barry	75 mph, 991 mbars, July 11-15	75 mph, 993 mbars, July 11-15	November 18, 2019
Three	35 mph, 1012 mbars, July 22-23	35 mph, 1013 mbars, July 22-23	August 19, 2019
Chantal	40 mph, 1009 mbars, August 21-24	40 mph, 1007 mbars, August 20-24	October 25, 2019
Dorian	185 mph, 910 mbars, Aug. 24-Sept. 7	185 mph, 910 mbars, Aug. 24-Sept. 7	April 20, 2020
Erin	40 mph, 1005 mbars, August 26-29	40 mph, 1002 mbars, August 26-29	November 15, 2019
Fernand	50 mph, 1000 mbars, September 3-5	50 mph, 1000 mbars, Sept. 3-5	January 29, 2020
Gabrielle	65 mph, 995 mbars, September 3-6/6-10	65 mph, 995 mbars, Sept. 3-10	January 3, 2020
Humberto	125 mph, 951 mbars, September 13-20	125 mph, 950 mbars, Sept. 13-19	February 19, 2020
Jerry	105 mph, 976 mbars, September 17-25	105 mph, 976 mbars, Sept. 17-24	December 11, 2019
Imelda	40 mph, 1005 mbars, September 17-19	45 mph, 1003 mbars, Sept. 17-19	January 14, 2020
Karen	45 mph, 1002 mbars, September 22-27	45 mph, 1003 mbars, Sept. 22-27	December 16, 2019
Lorenzo	160 mph, 925 mbars, Sept. 23-Oct. 2	160 mph, 925 mbars, Sept. 23-Oct. 2	December 16, 2019
Melissa	65 mph, 995 mbars, October 11-14	65 mph, 994 mbars, October 11-14	December 31, 2019
Fifteen	35 mph, 1006 mbars, October 14-16	35 mph, 1006 mbars, October 14-16	November 1, 2019
Nestor	60 mph, 996 mbars, October 18-19	60 mph, 996 mbars, October 18-19	February 28, 2020
Pablo	80 mph, 977 mbars, October 25-28	80 mph, 977 mbars, October 25-28	January 27, 2020
Olga	40 mph, 998 mbars, October 25-26	45 mph, 998 mbars, October 25	March 19, 2020
Rebekah	45 mph, 987 mbars, Oct. 30-Nov. 1	50 mph, 982 mbars, Oct. 30-Nov. 1	December 9, 2019
Sebastien	65 mph, 994 mbars, November 19-25	70 mph, 991 mbars, November 19-24	February 3, 2020

First TCR of the season is up, for Andrea. Lasted for 18 hours before dissipating.--Isaac829 E-Mail 17:57, August 6, 2019 (UTC)

Added the table for reference. Doesn't appear like there were any notable changes to Andrea, besides the advisory times (advisories were operationally issued at 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC, but NHC just put it to 1800 UTC on the 20th, or 2 PM EDT) for convenience. Ryan 1000 20:47, August 6, 2019 (UTC)

Three is also out too, since NHC doesn't have as much work this month.--Isaac829 E-Mail 20:18, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Pressure got nerfed by 1 mbar. Ryan 1000 20:31, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Chantal and TD 15 are up, but both were finished some time ago (November 1st for TD 15 and October 25 for Chantal). Chantal's pressure was buffed by 2 mbars and it formed a day earlier, but no changes happened to TD 15. Ryan 1000 05:42, November 8, 2019 (UTC)

Barry is out too, pressure rose by 2 mbar. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 11:49, November 20, 2019 (UTC)

Erin is out, but was finished about a week ago on the 15th. Pressure got buffed by 3 mbars. Ryan 1000 11:35, November 21, 2019 (UTC)

Lorenzo is out. Held at 140 kt, 925 mbar. Jerry is also out, only change is that its lifetime was cut one day short. -- JavaHurricane 02:46, December 19, 2019 (UTC)

Some more images of Lorenzo's destruction on Flores are shown in the TCR. Although the island was small and not very populated, it was still extensive and historic considering the size of Lorenzo when it passed and the rarity of strong hurricanes in the Azores. NHC didn't give a damage total however, though WP's totals remain at 362 million USD. Ryan 1000 17:24, December 19, 2019 (UTC)

I'm somewhat surprised that Lorenzo is already released, considering that I thought it would be one of the last to be released for reasons mentioned in the betting pool. Now I think Dorian or even a random late storm like Sebastien, Pablo, or even Melissa will be the last to be released. That destruction does seem pretty bad. ~ Steve 🎄 Happy Holidays!🎅🕯 18:58, December 19, 2019 (UTC)

Rebekah is up, but was finished a month ago on December 9th. Pressure and winds each got buffed by 5, to 50 mph and 982 mbars from 45/987 operationally. Ryan 1000 03:50, January 8, 2020 (UTC)

Melissa came out some time recently, but was finished two weeks ago. Pressure got buffed by 1 mbar. Ryan 1000 02:07, January 14, 2020 (UTC)

Gabrielle is out. The six-hour remnant low period on September 6 got removed, so Gabrielle was deemed to be fully tropical throughout its lifetime. No change to peak intensity, though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:08, January 28, 2020 (UTC)

Fernand, Imelda, and Karen are up, which were finished on January 29, January 14, and...December 16, respectively? Karen's was a bit late...anyways, Fernand wasn't changed, but Imelda got a slight buff. She remained a TS for 6 hours (the timing on the intensity table in her TCR is a bit odd), but was buffed to 45 mph/1003 mbars, from 40/1005 operationally. So we no longer have a standalone record for most 40 mph tropical storms in one season, and now tie 1933 and 1936 once again (pending reanalysis on Olga), and as for Karen, the pressure got nerfed by 1 mbar, from 1002 to 1003. That leaves Dorian, Humberto, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, and Sebastien. Ryan 1000 05:30, January 31, 2020 (UTC)

What order do you think the remaining TCRs might come out, and when would Dorian be estimated to come out? --Aquaria485 (talk) 00:45, February 4, 2020 (UTC)

Seb came out. --Aquaria485 (talk) 01:11, February 6, 2020 (UTC)

Got buffed a little bit, to 70 mph and 991 mbars. I think Dorian will probably be last, and Humberto second to last. I'm not sure what order Nestor, Olga, or Pablo will be, but one of those latter 3 will probably be next. Ryan 1000 02:33, February 6, 2020 (UTC)

Why do you think that order? Is it because they'd all be hard to analyze? I've noticed that they have scanned the alphabet A-S but skipping out the "hard" ones. Aquaria485 (talk) 05:17, February 7, 2020 (UTC)

Yeah, Dorian and Humberto are pretty hard to analyse. I am on three Discord servers related to tropical cyclones, and it seems that SFMR winds of 175 kt were found in Dorian and 115 kt in Humberto, giving rise to much speculation and argument. I expect Nestor and Olga to come out next, followed by Humberto and Pablo, and finally Dorian, as assessing the true death toll and damage might need a few months more. For that cause, I've heard that Dorian might have killed thousands in the Bahamas. I expect Nestor and Olga by the end of February, Humberto and Pablo by mid to late March, and Dorian, well, whenever they are done with it. Likely May, well after the WMO meet that should hopefully remove Dorian and Imelda. -- JavaHurricane 12:03, February 7, 2020 (UTC)

I had the feeling Humberto might become a category 4 operationally, and it did come close, so there is a chance it could get buffed, as could Dorian. Though when it comes to retirement, I'm not sure if Imelda's going to make it, yeah it did do 5 billion in damage but the U.S. has higher retirement standards than in the past due to inflation; if Isaac of 2012 didn't get the cut for 2.3 billion at that time, Imelda might not make it with 5 billion in today's dollars either. I actually think Lorenzo has a slightly higher shot because it's damage was probably worse for the Azores, relatively speaking, than Imelda was for Texas, though the Azores haven't been known to retire anything before. Then again, as I mentioned in my retirement predictions, they could, as they are a member of the comittee, having provided a report on 2016's Alex. Ryan 1000 14:43, February 7, 2020 (UTC)

But won't they have to superblend the SFMR and Flight Level winds? Obviously the flight level winds are multiplied by 0.9 then they take an average? This would mean, using the link from here, Dorian would average out to 160 knots and Humberto would be 113 knots. I have no idea what's that on the SSHWS. So Humberto's case might be hard. I even won't be surprised if he comes after Dorian. Do you personally see Humberto being upgraded? I personally think Dorian would remain at 185mph. Aquaria485 (talk) 20:26, February 7, 2020 (UTC)

Aquaria, the problem is that the NHC found that SFMR wind values, being mere estimates, are unreliable above 115 kt. This was first found in Irma, and since then, the NHC has been adjusting the SFMR values downwards to get the true intensity. -- JavaHurricane 03:02, February 8, 2020 (UTC)

Alright Java. It says here that...

DORIAN: Highest Flight Level Wind: 161 knots, Highest Est. Surface Wind: 177 knots

HUMBERTO: Highest Flight Level Wind: 121 knots, Highest Est. Surface Wind: 113 knots

I wonder what that would translate to, in your opinion. What do you think would happen with these two? Aquaria485 (talk) 03:14, February 8, 2020 (UTC)

If one has a careful look, one will realise that the SFMR winds came only in one pass, for both Humberto and Dorian. What is more important to note is that SFMR is an estimate of surface 10s winds, which needs to be properly adjusted to 1-min to compare with the SSHWS. And, as the NHC found in Irma, SFMR winds are unreliable above 115 kt. This, combined with dropsonde and CKZ calculation data, suggests that Dorian was 155 kt, 908 mbar, while Humberto was 110 kt, 950 mbar. -- JavaHurricane 04:49, February 8, 2020 (UTC)

So, you don't think Humberto would be upgraded, and Dorian will get a downgraded? Is that what you're implying? Because I got 161 and 113 knots in the superblend when I calculated it. --Aquaria485 (talk) 19:57, February 8, 2020 (UTC)

Superblends are not the most accurate estimates of a tropical cyclone. This is because storm intensity at sea level is decided by several factors, and the 90% reduction or superblend methods can't account for said factors well. The best way is land observation and dropsonde observations, which can be correlated using CKZ to obtain actual strength. -- JavaHurricane 02:35, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

So, what do you think the final strength for those two would be? I'd say 185 and 130 for those two. Aquaria485 (talk) 02:41, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

155 kt and 908 mbar for Dorian and 110 kt and 950 mbar for Humberto. 160 kt is too high per CKZ which gives 900 mbar for 160 kt under Dorian's environmental conditions. -- JavaHurricane 02:54, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

So in other words, you believe Humberto will stay at a category 3. Why? --Aquaria485 (talk) 02:59, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

Because SFMR, which was 113 kt at maximum, is a 10 second wind which needs to be properly adjusted to 1 minute winds, and an adjustment gives 105 kt. Also, Humberto was clearly weakening when that SFMR was recorded, so 110 kt looks good. -- JavaHurricane 03:04, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

Show me how 113kt adjusts to 105kt. You need to x0.9 the maximum flight level wind, not the SFMR. In Jerry's report, it states that "The hurricane’s estimated peak intensity of 90 kt at 0000 UTC 20 September is based on a blend of peak SFMR winds of 95 kt and a 700- mb flight-level wind of 97 kt (equivalent surface wind of 89 kt) measured by the hurricane hunter aircraft. In addition, a couple of dropwindsondes released in the northeast eyewall of the hurricane measured surface winds of 87–88 kt." On that link, Jerry's stats are "Highest Flight Level Wind: 97 knots, Highest Est. Surface Wind: 95 knots", so in other words, it's x0.9 to the FLIGHT LEVEL WIND, not the surface wind. Therefore, Humberto averages out to about 112-113kt, because you have to do x0.9 to 121 knots, not 113. Aquaria485 (talk) 03:13, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

No. As I said before, the 90% flight level adjustment cannot account for a few factors, such as vertical depth and vertical stacking. In the case of Humberto, the storm was not vertically stacked when those records were taken. Moreover, they were isolated records not found on other passes, possibly contaminated by rain. As such one also has to accommodate for the vertical stacking, which was missing in Humberto at that time. -- JavaHurricane 03:42, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

Well, I just quoted from an actual TCR, which was Jerry's. What do you mean by "nO." Care to explain further? You clearly don't understand how this works. Show me your sources, not your opinions. Aquaria485 (talk) 03:51, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

Let me explain. In the past few years, the NHC has observed that multiple factors affect the mixing rate of winds from flight level to surface, such as rain contamination, graupel, vertical stacking and vertical depth of the tropical cyclone. If you don't believe me, see storms like Felix, which had powerful graupel, resulting in 10-m winds much lower than the flight level winds. In the case of Humberto, the storm had lost its vertical stacking due to mid-level wind shear, which resulted in a mixing value other than the 90% value that is normally used. It is imperative, therefore, to find the specific mixing ratio by using dropsonde data for the eyewall and taking the flight level-surface ratio from there. For Humberto, the ratio was about 0.85 due to the breakdown of vertical stacking. I discussed this with a few experienced meteorologists on Discord, and they agreed that Humberto was likely 110 kt than 115, especially on that controversial pass. -- JavaHurricane 06:51, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

Also, your math is a little wrong. 90% of 121 kt is 108.9 kt, not 113 kt. -- JavaHurricane 06:58, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

Sweetie, I'm afraid you're getting too big for your boots. What experienced meterologists? A social media meterologist? I need to see proof you had these conversations. Show me some screenshots or quotes. Stop being arrogant, full or four own self, and pointing out every single fault I have. I mean that I rounded up 108.9 kt to 110 then added that with 113 and took an average to get 112 knots. I have never met someone as arrogant and up their own selves as you. I'm waiting for you to spill some more tea, sweetie.Aquaria485 (talk) 07:05, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

I'm not being arrogant - I am simply pointing out that the usual 0.90 mixing ratio is not applicable here. As far as the meteorologists are concerned, I can assure you that the meteorologists are not social media meteorologists - they have been tracking cyclones for years, including some people on Wikipedia's WPTC. -- JavaHurricane 07:13, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

I'm literally wheezing right now. Those are also social media meteorologists who are like us. Tracking cyclones for many years doesn't make me, you, or those people you're referring to as experienced, show me your qualification certificate that shows you're a certified meteorologist. I'd like to hear a real life case, apart from this one, into why you don't think tHe RaTiO is aPpLiCaBLe rather than just spew it out of your mouth with no source and throwing shade. You lit rally snatched my wig. Shook yet? Well, that's the tea. I am still positive Humberto will be upgraded. And why on earth do you think Dorian will get a downgrade? Just tell me. You're literally making yourself look like an idiot right now, sweetie. You are just another social media, amateur meterologist from India. You're just like me. You're just like everyone else who has meteorology as a hobby but not qualified. You're here to learn, sweetie.' Please, sis, don't be arrogant. This is going back to the LoReNzO WaS a 4 argument. Well, let's keel it civil. PERIODT. Aquaria485 (talk) 07:17, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

Well, your refusal to accept the inapplicability of the ratio in this case is simply telling us of your inability to accept what others say, or your inexperience with recon. As far as Dorian is concerned, the values of the flight level winds which led the NHC to upgrade the system to 160 kt were associated with a lot of contamination by wind (I would advise you to go through the recon archive); also, since Irma, the NHC has been more careful with recon due to severe inaccuracies in powerful storms. Also, the lowest pressure recorded by sonde (908 mbar) agrees better with 155 kt than 160 kt. Also, please mind your tongue, for your language is bordering on the abusive now. I am simpl using my knowledge to estimate an intensity, but I certainly did not expect personal attacks. Can we please calm down? The fact that you are using personal attacks shows that you are being arrogant, not me. Please calm down. -- JavaHurricane 07:35, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

Well sis, you're also inexperienced just like me. You're literally nitpicking every fault I have and saying you have knowledge when you're merely trying to learn. As I said you're just another learner from India. I'm sure you have a Quora too. But that doesn't mean you're better than all of us. I am not throwing shade at you, you're throwing shade at me but more lowkey, sweetie. You were clearly displaying your arrogance. What knowledge and experience do you have compared to me? Stop picking out my flaws and keep saying I'm wrong. We're all here to learn, not throw shade. If you wanna throw shade, well you've come to the wrong place, sis. I went throughrecon many timea and I can reassure you I have never seen anything from any source that says the mixing ratio must vary. They used a ratio of 0.92 for Jerry despite not looking the best. I have literally not heard of the term mixing ratio until today when the words slipped from that mouth of yours. And I'm sure you were one of the Lorenzo bashers too, saying 135 knots was a better fit. Well sis, the certified experts had spoken and they kept Lorenzo at 140kt. Don't say anything else now, OK? PERIODT. Aquaria485 (talk) 08:54, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

Please stop with your personal attacks. And please mind your tongue. And mixing ratios do vary per storm as per the ratio of the dropsonde observations. -- JavaHurricane 11:16, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

Sis, show me some evidence 'mixing ratios' exist and don't dodge my question. PERIODT. Aquaria485 (talk) 11:38, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

See Felix and Megi recon if you want hard proof. -- JavaHurricane 12:15, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

With Felix, using 0.9 as a scaling factor for flight level winds, I got 177 mph. Felix was 175mph. Your argument isn't valid, sis. --Aquaria485 (talk) 17:49, February 9, 2020 (UTC)

pablo is out, next --Aquaria485 (talk) 20:53, February 18, 2020 (UTC)

Hmmmm, no change that I can see. Not unexpected at all. I'm having a hard time deciding if Nestor will be out next or Olga, though it is a bit surprising that the TCRs for both aren't out. Dorian and Humberto might need some more time, given all the data the NHC might have to analyse. Let us see. -- JavaHurricane 16:28, February 19, 2020 (UTC)

950mb and hexin' it. Aquaria485 (talk) 19:44, February 19, 2020 (UTC)

And Humberto is largely the same other than that 1 mbar. Perhaps the more important thing is this quote from the TCR -

"Information obtained from the Aon Re-Insurance Company’s (Aon.com) 2019 Annual Summary indicate that damage losses on Bermuda caused by Hurricane Dorian, including damage to the new airport, exceed $25 million (USD)."

The IMD is often mixing up TC names in their reports, but I certainly did not expect the same form the NHC. -- JavaHurricane 00:47, February 20, 2020 (UTC)

Nestor came out a short time ago, but no changes happened to him. That leaves Olga and Dorian. Ryan 1000 22:21, March 2, 2020 (UTC)

Now you have to think: Is it possible to downgrade a storm to a PTC after the season is over?--Isaac829 E-Mail 06:33, March 3, 2020 (UTC)

Lol considering the delay in Olga's TCR I imagine something like that might end up happening to it. They might be struggling to analyze if it really was a tropical storm due to its miserable 6-hour life and immediate merger with the cold front, and its laughable satellite presentation as a "TS". If it did get downgraded it would officially be the worst and most pathetic name stealer ever recorded.~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 17:58, March 3, 2020 (UTC)

That could happen, in theory, since there were a few short-lived EPac storms in the 1960's and 70's that got nerfed to TD status in reanalysis (or not even being a tropical cyclone at all in the case of 1961's Simone) and therefore weren't included in the post-season best track. If Olga gets nerfed to a PTC that would the first time I'd ever see that happen for a named storm in the Atlantic. ~~EDIT: One more thing, I forgot to mention Dog of 1952, that storm was operationally thought to be a hurricane, but it wasn't even a TC at all after reanalysis caught up to it.~~ Ryan 1000 22:53, March 3, 2020 (UTC)

Ryan, are you sure? I just checked Wikipedia, and it says that Dog was a 60 kt storm as per HURDAT-2. -- JavaHurricane 00:20, March 4, 2020 (UTC)

Wait, nvm, I was thinking of a previous reanalysis statement on it, just double checked the article recently, it was a TS. Scratch my above comment on that storm. But back to Olga, after double-checking Dog, I've never seen an Atlantic storm be declassified as a tropical cyclone in reanalysis, so Olga would probably be a first (not counting pre-1950 storms, even if there were any then). Simone of 1961 in the EPac still stands though, which was thought to be a TS continuation of Hurricane Hattie but it wasn't a TC in reanalysis. Ryan 1000 03:13, March 4, 2020 (UTC)

I think you're thinking of Kendra 1966.--Isaac829 E-Mail 06:22, March 4, 2020 (UTC)

@Isaac: I don't know if you saw the video that Dylan linked in Beryl's archive in July 2018, but the hurricane reanalysis project already finished the 1961-70 hurricane seasons, they're just doing one last review until they add the 1966-70 seasons. In it, they said they would add Kendra of 1966 (and 3 other storms) to that season's total (skip ahead to the 9:30 minute part to see it), like how they added more storms, including Mike, to the 1950 season. Other changes to the 1966-70 seasons in the video include:

Inez being upgraded to a 165 mph cat 5
Faith's track being significantly cut short, being extratropical at 45 N
Celia of 1970 being buffed to a 140 mph cat 4 at its Corpus Christi landfall
And 3 more hurricanes being added (2 in 1970 and 1 in 1968, one of which I believe was a post-season fishspinner)

One more thing that wasn't mentioned in the video is Beulah of 1967 being downgraded to cat 3 or 4 at its landfall (since it didn't produce category 5 winds at its landfall in Mexico or Texas), so I think they're reanalyzing her one last time before they publish the 1966-70 reanalysis. Ryan 1000 15:49, March 4, 2020 (UTC)

Interesting stuff Ryan. I also saw in the video that 23 new cyclones were being added to HURDAT and Debbie of 1961 was determined to have become extratropical much earlier during the reanalysis of the early part of the decade. I always thought it was strange how Debbie and Faith kept tropical status so far north like initially thought, the reanalyzed versions are certainly more realistic. If Olga was downgraded to a non-TC (since Mike and Kendra are being added back), it would probably be only the 2nd case after Simone unless I'm missing something else. I mean since Simone already holds the record for biggest waste of a name, Olga being downgraded could possibly tie or even beat it for that honor 😂. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:11, March 4, 2020 (UTC)

found this in the files for the next session (could change in the future). ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:37, March 8, 2020 (UTC)

Olga is out, only lasted for a day on October 25.--Isaac829 E-Mail 15:30, March 19, 2020 (UTC)

Her lifespan was actually extended another 6 hours, so Olga wasn't nearly as short-lived as initially thought, also the winds got a slight buff to 45 mph, like Imelda. That leaves only Dorian. Ryan 1000 16:07, March 19, 2020 (UTC)

Olga somehow made 400 thousand USD of damage.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:28, March 19, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like Olga wasn't the insane fail that it was originally thought to be. At least the scenario I mentioned above didn't happen. ~ Steve 🙏🏻 Praying for the world to recover from coronavirus.📧 05:44, March 20, 2020 (UTC)

I think Dorian intensity won't change at all.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:16, March 20, 2020 (UTC)

Earlier I decided to put "September" as "Sept." for short in the dates for tropical cyclones in the TCR table, because I believe it looks neater that way, without certain storms being double-spaced in the table. Ryan 1000 15:16, March 20, 2020 (UTC)

Interestingly, the TCRs for Olga and Pablo had the former form at 12z October 25, and the latter form 12 hours earlier, so their names should have been switched... meaning we should have had a female hurricane last year :/ --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 00:23, March 22, 2020 (UTC)

Hmm...didn't catch that earlier. In that case, I'll switch them around in the TCR table, like Jerry vs Imelda. I'm not sure if two storms switching names around due to different times forming as depressions (or after reanalysis like this) has happened twice in the same hurricane season before, but if it has, it's probably only one of a small handful along with this year. Ryan 1000 12:21, March 22, 2020 (UTC)

Dorian's TCR is finally out.--Isaac829 E-Mail 16:03, April 27, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like NHC doesn't change Dorian's intensity. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:55, April 27, 2020 (UTC)

Dorian's estimated damages is 5 billion USD (3.4 billion in Bahamas and 1.6 Billion in the US)ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:58, April 27, 2020 (UTC)

Dorian was actually finished a week ago, but yeah, the intensity is the same, in fact NHC gave Dorian an extra advisory at 160 knots, but in the TCR they did say that they might revise Dorian's peak intensity later on if SFMR data at high winds are recalibrated. But considering that the NHC gave Dorian an extra advisory at 160 knots, they'll probably keep that as his peak windspeed. The death toll in the Bahamas is reported as "over 200" based on the report from the health minister of the Bahamas, but the Bahamas Weather Service estimates the death toll at 74 (63 in Abaco Island and 11 on Grand Bahama Island), with 245 more missing. Ryan 1000 23:08, April 27, 2020 (UTC)

Meeting canceled due to COVID-19[]

The panama hurricane meeting got canceled according to an editor on wikipedia because of the virus, so no names will be retired. weird --Aquaria485 (talk) 22:53, March 17, 2020 (UTC)

It's not confirmed that no names will be retired at all, but retirements will either 1) be confirmed in a different way, or 2) the meeting won't be outright cancelled but postponed until later instead, like it was in the WPac a few weeks earlier. Ryan 1000 13:20, March 18, 2020 (UTC)

I am hoping that the former would materialize, because I think they really have cancelled the meeting. I have read something that said this particular meeting was cancelled but the other events were just postponed. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:52, March 19, 2020 (UTC)

Here is the link. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:56, March 19, 2020 (UTC)

I hope the announcement of retirements won't be delayed. Since that meeting appears to be outright cancelled (no postponement date on that link), the retirements might be revealed in a different way (like maybe in an online-only conference or announcement). ~ Steve 🙏🏻 Praying for the world to recover from coronavirus.📧 05:41, March 20, 2020 (UTC)

Maybe, just maybe... when Dorian's TCR comes out? If they would not retire any name(s) for this season that would mean Dorian would displace Karl, Gordon and Isaac as the biggest snub in Atlantic hurricane history. Or maybe they'll just do it next year – for both 2019 and 2020. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:37, March 20, 2020 (UTC)

I decided to move this to its own section, since it was a bit separate from replacement names alone. Anyhow, I do believe there will be an announcement on Twitter or other social media at some point that will confirm the retirement of Dorian and/or Imelda and Lorenzo in a week or two, assuming they won't have any date for a postponed meeting, like the ESCAP/WMO typhoon committee was 3 weeks ago. Ryan 1000 15:16, March 20, 2020 (UTC)

They won't cancel the meeting, the meeting will be held on March 31st via video conference.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 05:57, March 26, 2020 (UTC)

That's good to know. Wait, where did you get the info? P.S. Stay safe and stay at home too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:00, March 26, 2020 (UTC)

The info: https://community.wmo.int/meetings/hurricane-committee-42nd-session-hc-42.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:16, March 26, 2020 (UTC)

Sad news: The retired name of 2019 will be announce in 2021.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 02:05, April 1, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like we'll have to wait another year to see the retired names of this year due to the outbreak...still waiting on Dorian's TCR, but after that we'll archive this year. However, we could bump it again once Dorian is eventually retired in 2021. Ryan 1000 11:25, April 1, 2020 (UTC)