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August[]

95L.INVEST[]

AOI: Eastern Caribbean Sea[]

An AOI appears in the Caribbean Sea, at 10/20 as it moves northwestward toward the island of Hispaniola. Sandy156 :) 17:52, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

95L.INVEST[]

Now invested as 95L according to Tropical Tibits. Sandy156 :) 18:28, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

Land interaction is inhibiting it and environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly conducive until it reaches the Florida Straits, so we shouldn't see much from this in the short term. However this could be one to watch in the very long run. Chantal might come in early August (or even by the end of July if we're lucky) from this. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:08, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
Chances decreased to 0/10, but can still form into next week or so, if possible. Sandy156 :) 00:13, July 30, 2019 (UTC)

No longer in Tropical Tidbits' invests section, but still 0/10 on NHC's TWO, Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:11, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

Finally off the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:10, August 2, 2019 (UTC)

96L.INVEST[]

AOI: Near Africa[]

Although it's not on the TWO yet, Dr. Masters made a blog post discussing the probability for the development of an AOI that just moved off the coast of Africa and Cape Verde, and this signifies Cape Verde season is about to head up. Keep your eyes out...this might become something down the road. Ryan1000 01:51, July 29, 2019 (UTC)

Now on the TWO with 0/20. Sandy156 :) 00:13, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
Now increased to near 0/40. Sandy156 :) 00:15, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
This system is getting a bit concerning. This could be one to watch in the long run if it doesn't fall victim to any shear around the Eastern Caribbean. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 00:18, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
0/60 now. It seems that the Atlantic is waking up too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:09, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

The new GFS takes this to Newfoundland as a hurricane eventually, but the Euro doesn't develop this too much. Still a long ways to go before we can tell if anything big will happen with this. Ryan1000 21:23, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

0/70, this might have a chance of becoming Chantal soon. Sandy156 :) 02:38, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

It'll probably become Chantal...also, I included 95L in August in case it develops in the month, but otherwise, archived the rest of the stuff above it. Ryan1000 03:02, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

96L.INVEST[]

10/70. This is a system to watch out for. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:24, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

Increased to 20/70. Sandy156 :) 16:48, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

NHC says conditions will become unfavorable after it passes the upper Antilles, so this might only become a short-lived Chantal if it becomes a named storm. Ryan1000 18:50, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 20/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:10, August 2, 2019 (UTC)
20/40, this is unlikely to form now. Sandy156 :) 17:56, August 2, 2019 (UTC)
Further down to 20/30. Seems that all NHem basins are sub-par this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:36, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

It's still early August though, we have a lot of hurricane season left. Last year didn't have Florence until September, a month from now, 2017 didn't have Harvey until two weeks from now, and 2016 didn't get Matthew until October. Though it doesn't seem that this year will be as active right now, people shouldn't let their guard down. Ryan1000 14:34, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Will we get a hurricane like these picture perfect types this year? I really hope so. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 14:53, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Keep things on topic please. Anyways, this won't become much of anything at this point, chances down to 20/20 and unfavorable conditions will set in soon. Ryan1000 22:10, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

10/10, will likely dissipate soon. Ryan1000 15:40, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

And now near 0%. See ya. Ryan1000 20:23, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

Sadly this failed to develop. Chantal's taking a while to show up! Maybe by the middle of the month we'll finally see her. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 14:54, August 5, 2019 (UTC)

Inactivity Break[]

an active af season expected from the noaa as a spanking new prediction report came out today. 10-17 lil' minions gonna be unleashed in your back garden. am thinking the most intense storms would be from the letters f-h this season. a category 4 fish storm is likely, imo. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 18:35, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

The Atlantic is really sleeping right now. At this rate, it might not be until almost the end of the month that Chantal finally comes. I just don't see this season being that active anymore, it would take a miracle late August/September explosion to see a very active season this year. We will probably only end at the I-L names this year to be honest. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:37, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
the charts say that the mjo phase will become more favorable, a cckw will push in, giving an abrupt sharp spike in activity. it's the dry sinking air promoted by a bad mjo phase. the season will likely end at about l-n. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 19:43, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Dr. Master's latest blog post says that there's a lot of dry air from the SAL over much of the tropical Atlantic, which is why the Atlantic is quiet for now, but a CCKW and the MJO will probably come into the basin by late August or September, and by then the basin will probably kick up a bit. Also, there's a possibility that a stalled frontal boundary could spawn a storm in the northern gulf next week, similar to how Barry formed. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that this season could spike in activity later on, or produce a notable storm or two. Ryan1000 12:18, August 13, 2019 (UTC)

Alright, I now think Chantal is possible in the next couple weeks, although it will probably come after my birthday from either the frontal boundary or a tropical wave once the CCKW and MJO moves in. If nothing forms by August 24, this year will have the latest "C" named storm since 1992, surpassing 2014. However I think Chantal this year will come at a similar time as Cristobal in 2014. Correcting my previous comment, if we get an explosion late this month into September, reaching the L-N names is a distinct possibility, although I think we will end around Karen. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 20:21, August 13, 2019 (UTC)
Aw, man. Rebekah will have to wait ANOTHER six years. :( Beatissima (talk) 01:54, August 14, 2019 (UTC)

We might not get all the way to Rebekah this year, but we still have quite a bit of time left in the season, and if we get a sizeable pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation later in the month or September as Dr. Masters suggested, we could be in for something later on. Ryan1000 04:34, August 14, 2019 (UTC)

04L.CHANTAL[]

AOI: Over Florida[]

Finally, the ATL has got an area of interest now over Florida moving towards the northeast. It's at 10/20 rn. Sandy156 :) 00:17, August 17, 2019 (UTC)

The wait has been killing us. Only 10/20 might not seem so convincing for development. But please become Chantal 🤗 ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:22, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 10/10, at this rate we could have the latest "C" named storm since 1992... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:09, August 17, 2019 (UTC)

97L.INVEST[]

It has been invested, hopefully we see something! ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:56, August 17, 2019 (UTC)

Up to 30/30, maybe there is a good chance of Chantal. It's got until Tuesday to develop. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 06:31, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
Back down to 20/20... ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:06, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
And down to 10/10. Beatissima (talk) 00:35, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
Could we PLEASE get Chantal already? The chances for this one are diminishing and it'll have to pull a surprise tomorrow to become a TD or named TS. At this rate we could see a stormless August for the first time since 1997... The basin seems really hopeless for development in the near future. What a bust the Atlantic is this year... Might become the worst year I've ever tracked, and that would be saying something. Even 2013 was ahead in named storms at this point, and it looks likely 2019 will surpass 2014 for the latest "C" named storm of the century. ~ Steve 🎂 It's myB-DAY!🎉 06:34, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
I guess it's merciful that Hurricane Alley is getting a little break from overactive storm seasons. Even if it's only for a half-season and things pick up again next month. Beatissima (talk) 01:10, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Spiked up to 40/40. Beatissima (talk) 23:56, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Wow, this could actually become Chantal... ~ Steve 🎂 It's myB-DAY!🎉 01:53, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
Chances raised to 100, finally Chantal's coming after more than a month long wait. Sandy156 :) 02:11, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Chantal[]

Wtf, this caught me by surprise! We got Chantal, NHC's initiating advisories now. ~ Steve 🎂 It's myB-DAY!🎉 02:35, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Well, it's safe to say that Chantal surprised you on your birthday. The Atlantic finally came back to life. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:59, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
Chantal's a nice birthday present for sure. ~ Steve 🎂 It's myB-DAY!🎉 03:17, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
WHAAAAAAAAAT???? I had fully written this thing off as a bust, and all of a sudden it turns into Chantal? Kind of feels like Emily from two years ago. Oh and happy birthday Steve! Send Help Please (talk) 03:33, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
Same, this is such a shocking surprise! :O And thanks! ~ Steve 🎂 It's myB-DAY!🎉 03:40, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Apparently this is also the second-latest date for the third named storm of the season of the 21st century thus far, behind Cristobal of 2014 which formed on August 23, and this Chantal formed only 6 days later than the 2001 Chantal. It probably won't do much over the north Atlantic, but I will say, I did not expect this to form. Ryan1000 03:55, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

I hadn’t even checked the NHC site in a couple of days because I thought everything was just dead, and now, boom. Chantal coming out of nowhere. Leeboy100Hello! 06:06, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
Wow, this thing I never thought would form in the beginning became a named storm before that invest in the EPAC did! I expect this to be weak, though (watch this thing become a hurricane, okay I'm joking). TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 12:16, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
This is probably never going to surpass 45 or even 40 mph. While I'm glad to see a named storm this month, it's unfortunately on the failure TS side. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:02, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Chantal[]

Never made it past 40 mph.--Isaac829E-Mail 08:06, August 22, 2019 (UTC)

Now on its last legs. Chantal is seriously playing with our emotions. First it rapidly organized to become Chantal, making us excited that there's finally a named storm in the Atlantic, and then she had to peak at the bare minimum and weaken afterwards, trolling us all. Chantfail didn't even try after being named. >:( I know conditions for Chantal weren't particularly conducive but hopefully Dorian is something better. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:17, August 22, 2019 (UTC)
Apparently she's still kicking. Beatissima (talk) 22:40, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
Wow, Chantal still holding on and struggling to survive, which will succumb to stay alive much longer mostly likely in the next advisory or two. Sandy156 :) 23:35, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
I'm surprised Chantal is still alive but it's barely hanging on. Might be post-tropical/remnants by tonight though, or tomorrow morning at latest. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:51, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
It would be fun if Chantal later transitioned back to into tropical/sub-tropical system and kept going and going like Leslie. Beatissima (talk) 00:29, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal[]

See you in 2025, Chantal! Beatissima (talk) 02:42, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Bye Chantal, thank you for waking up the Atlantic! Sandy156 :) 03:13, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

05L.DORIAN[]

See the archive for this historic, monstrous C5 hurricane responsible for absolutely catastrophic impacts to the Bahamas and further impacts to the Lesser Antilles, the whole eastern seaboard of the U.S. (especially the Carolinas), and Atlantic Canada.

06L.ERIN[]

AOI: Near Bahamas[]

On the outlook at 0/20. Can this become Dorian? ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:02, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Up to 10/30, I think this'll become Dorian. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:18, August 22, 2019 (UTC)

98L.INVEST[]

Invested and at 30/60. Expected to move over Florida over the next day or two before recurving northeast and out to sea. It might become Dorian on the way. Ryan1000 11:41, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

Now 40/70. I have a feeling this'll become either Tropical Depression Five or Dorian. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 11:57, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

70/90! No Chantal until the back half of August, and now it looks like between this and 99L we might clear Erin before the end of the month. Reminds me of how 2010 started quiet (Alex notwithstanding) and then exploded after Danielle formed right around the same time Chantal did this year. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:20, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
Also 12z UKMET makes this a 940 mbar Category 3 or 4 at around 40N on its way out to sea... is future Dorian determined to make up for his dud debut from 2013? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:31, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
Wow the Atlantic is starting to explode. Looking like a race between this and 99L for Dorian. I hope it becomes strong as long as it's out to sea. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 23:54, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

Still 70/90. Unless 90L organizes faster than this one, this system will become either PTC 6 or TD 6, and will most likely become Erin. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:50, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

My family is in SC this week. No doubt they'll get some swell from this. Beatissima (talk) 03:06, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
Slightly down to 60/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:55, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
Back up to 70/80. Geez, this is taking a while to develop. Today's Air Force flight has been cancelled. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:28, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
Now up to 80/80. Sandy156 :) 05:29, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
Up to 90/90. Expect Erin very soon. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:48, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six[]

Has finally formed into TD Six, expected to intesify into Erin very soon. Nickcoro (talk) 20:48, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Fixed the header. Anyways, it'll probably meander for a day or two before shooting northeast into Nova Scotia as a TS or STS. Ryan1000 22:10, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
Looking like it could be a name-stealer...unfortunately. It's got plenty of shear to deal with and they don't forecast anything beyond 45 mph. Looks like "Erin" might have to be used for another weakling this year unless it somehow stays below TS strength. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 19:28, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
If I'm being honest, I hope names get stolen in rapid succession so we can finally have Rebekah! Beatissima (talk) 23:59, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erin[]

Officially a TS, forecast to be 45 mph before turning post-tropical. Sandy156 :) 02:43, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

Beat me by a minute. Anyways, yeah, it won't do much, it might not even reach Atlantic Canada at this rate. Ryan1000 02:44, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
Erin has arrived! Yeah, we've got another weakling. Forecast to be post-tropical by the time it gets to Nova Scotia. It's not gonna do much and just remain completely off the East Coast. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 03:12, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Erin[]

30 kts/1006 mbar :( --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:44, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

A name stealer, to be honest. Forecast to stay a TD through tomorrow and become a TS-force post-tropical system impacting Atlantic Canada and parts of New England. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 17:46, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin[]

And she's gone. See you in 6 years, Erin. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:43, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

90L.INVEST[]

This one just popped up, but is likely to move inland before development. 10/10. Beatissima (talk) 16:59, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

What a waste of an invest, it won’t even form unless it unexpectedly develops inland. Sandy156 :) 17:35, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
Yeah, it has very limited time to become anything. Unless it explodes offshore, a TD is out of the cards. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:05, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 0%, development won't happen anymore. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 01:02, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
And it's off the TWO. ~ Steve Talk PageMy Edits📧 18:32, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
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