Changes: Forum:2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season

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This is the forum page for the 2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season.

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Future start

And the NIO forum is up too. Ryan 1000 03:59, November 20, 2018 (UTC)

January

36W.PABUK

Cyclonic Storm Pabuk

Pabuk is about to cross into the NIO, where he'll be a cyclone, will likely move northwest and die over unfavorable waters. Still, this has been one heck of a storm to track. Ryan 1000 12:19, January 4, 2019 (UTC)

Pabuk has lost some intensity, and it is apparently the earliest-in-the-year known storm to hit Thailand and the strongest confirmed landfall there since Typhoon Gay's unusual category 3 landfall there in 1989. No serious damages have been recorded, though 1 or 2 people were killed, sadly. Ryan 1000 00:24, January 5, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Pabuk

Gone for good now. Ryan 1000 15:14, January 6, 2019 (UTC)

April

01B.FANI

Cyclonic Storm Fani

The first storm that developed in this ocean, Fani is strengthening right now and is going towards India. The IMD forecasts that it will become a VSCS in 42 hours. Sandy 156 :) 17:32, April 27, 2019 (UTC)

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Fani

Holy goodness, this storm is taking off rapidly. Fani is undergoing a RI, currently an ESCS (C3 by JTWC). JTWC peaks it at 140 kn, which is a C5 cyclone, while IMD has it peak as a ESCS. If it intensifies into a C5, it will be the first to reach this intensity in this basin since Phailin in 2013. Fani is forecasted to make landfall in Odisha, but thankfully, it will weaken before its landfall. This could be devastating; hopefully, it’s not that worse than Idai down there. Sandy 156 :) 23:50, April 30, 2019 (UTC)

JTWC actually makes it a strong 3 or weak 4, unless you're looking at the gusts, which are forecast to be 135-140 knots. Cooler SST's near shore should wear Fani down before making landfall on the India/Bangladesh border, as either a weak cat 3 or strong cat 2. Ryan 1000 10:49, May 1, 2019 (UTC)

I must have seen 140 kn gusts instead of the 115 kn sustained before, oh well, must be paying attention to only the gusts. Anyways, it will hit Odisha in just a couple of days as a weak C3 and peak at 110 knots. Sandy 156 :) 22:33, May 1, 2019 (UTC)

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=IO012019&starting_image=2019IO01_4KMIRIMG_201905020845.GIF Fani is looking particularly dangerous this morning... ChowKam2002 (talk) 13:04, May 2, 2019 (UTC)

Woah, looks like the gusts from before might be Fani's peak winds after all! Fani put on a remarkable display of RI recently, significantly overperforming the JTWC's forecast and is now clocking winds of 155 mph and 917 mbars by the JTWC, or 130/939 by the IMD. Maybe this might become a cat 5 before landfall after all...and over what seemed to be cooling SST's as it was nearing the coastline. I guess the lack of wind shear and dry air gave Fani a chance to rapidly organize just offshore. Hopefully India makes it out ok... Ryan 1000 15:05, May 2, 2019 (UTC)

Ok then, after my misreading of the gusts, it somehow managed to intensify into a high-end C4 cyclone. I mean, that’s amazing how it exceeded JTWC’s forecast from before. The pressure has dropped to 937 mbar now. This might be its peak intensity right there since it is getting ready to made landfall anytime time soon (this means that it will not be a C5). I hope this cyclone will not be that deadly. Sandy 156 :) 00:34, May 3, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall in India

Fani is now roaring ashore near the small town of mainsha, with it's eye passing over Chilika Lake, as a 150 mph category 4 storm. Hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated before landfall, but this storm could still inflict very heavy damage, with hopefully little or no loss of life. Ryan 1000 02:46, May 3, 2019 (UTC)

It has now weakened into a C1 Cyclone by the JTWC and a VSCS by the IMD; unfortunately, 8 deaths have already been reported in Odisha. Sandy 156 :) 23:13, May 3, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Fani

Rapidly dissipated after landfall. Sadly, 30 deaths have been reported in association with this storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:49, May 4, 2019 (UTC)

Now the death toll has risen to 51; 29 in Odisha, 8 in Uttar Pradesh, and 14 in Bangladesh. The state of Andhra Pradesh has estimated an economic damage of $8.5 million. Sandy 156 :) 18:24, May 5, 2019 (UTC)

The final damage will likely be higher than that but thankfully the death toll is lower than previous storms, evacuations before the storm were well-executed. Ryan 1000 19:20, May 5, 2019 (UTC)

June

02A.VAYU

93A.INVEST

Currently monitored by JTWC in the Arabian Sea west of India. Code orange as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, June 9, 2019 (UTC)

GFS ensembles of this on Tropical Tidbits either take it north paralleling the coast of western India, moving west as it nears the northwestern coastline towards the Arabian Peninsula, or curving northeast to hit Pakistan. The intensity of this storm (Vayu) might be cat 2-3 according to the pressure estimates from the runs (977-965 mbars). Ryan 1000 20:08, June 9, 2019 (UTC)

Now under Code Red with a TCFA. Nickcoro (talk) 23:02, June 9, 2019 (UTC)

Depression ARB 01

The IMD recently designates the invest as ARB 01, but it remains code red by JTWC. Sandy 156 :) 04:41, June 10, 2019 (UTC)

Now it’s designated as 02A by the JTWC. The agency has it peak at 60 kn (70 mph) and then striking the India state of Gujarat at around 40 knots. IMD forecasts the storm to be a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, striking Gujarat as a Severe Cyclonic Storm. Sandy 156 :) 18:04, June 10, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Vayu

ARB 01 now intensifies into a cyclonic storm, earning the name Vayu. JTWC now has the storm peaking at 75 knots (85 mph), which is a Category 1 cyclone, while IMD now forecasts it to be a Severe Cyclonic Storm. Sandy 156 :) 23:16, June 10, 2019 (UTC)

JTWC upped their peak forecast to 105 mph, but Vayu might still hit the coast of western India or Pakistan as a category 2 storm with 100 mph (85 kt) winds. Ryan 1000 12:47, June 11, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Vayu

This storm took off fast, Vayu has already intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm by the IMD, a Category 2 tropical cyclone by the JTWC. JTWC has again upped the forecast to 95 knots (110 mph) which is a high-end Cat 2. Sandy 156 :) 03:14, June 12, 2019 (UTC)

Their latest forecast now takes Vayu just offshore instead of making landfall, but the collapse of steering currents that could happen around that time could lead to Vayu causing very severe flooding in western India and southern Pakistan. Ryan 1000 04:17, June 12, 2019 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Vayu

Upgraded to VSCS. Still C2 on the SSHWS though. JTWC expects Vayu to hit the westernmost part of Gujarat and parallel the coast thereafter. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:11, June 12, 2019 (UTC)

Latest JTWC track tells Vayu's eye will no longer hit Gujarat. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:32, June 12, 2019 (UTC)

Vayu is now expected to stay in the Arabian Sea before turning towards the direction of Karachi as a weakening TS-equivalent cyclone. This of course is according to the latest track released by JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:36, June 13, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like India got spared the worst of Vayu, although heavy rains are still a threat to the areas near the coastline. I don't think an Arabian Sea storm has ever taken a track like this near the coast of India before. Ryan 1000 07:49, June 15, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Vayu (2nd time)

Man, this storm is getting sheared so badly right now. Down to a cyclonic storm by the IMD and a tropical storm by the JTWC. Sandy 156 :) 04:58, June 17, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Vayu

Vayu is long gone. Sandy 156 :) 00:33, June 20, 2019 (UTC)

@@ Line 73: / Line 73: @@
 ====Cyclonic Storm Vayu (2nd time)====
 Man, this storm is getting sheared so badly right now. Down to a cyclonic storm by the IMD and a tropical storm by the JTWC. '''[[User:Sandy156|<span style="color:blue;">Sandy</span>]][[Message wall:Sandy156|<span style="color:red;">156</span>]] [[Special:Contributions/Sandy156|<span style="color:green;">:)</span>]]''' 04:58, June 17, 2019 (UTC)
+====Remnants of Vayu====
+Vayu is long gone. '''[[User:Sandy156|<span style="color:blue;">Sandy</span>]][[Message wall:Sandy156|<span style="color:red;">156</span>]] [[Special:Contributions/Sandy156|<span style="color:green;">:)</span>]]''' 00:33, June 20, 2019 (UTC)