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This is the forum page for the 2019 Pacific typhoon season.

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Forum guidelines

Please respect etiquette and assume good faith. Also, be nice and remain civil.


Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:January-July, August, September, October
Storm Event Archives:Lekima, Hagibis

Other Basin Talkpages (2019): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

November

24W.HALONG

99W.INVEST

Looks like another invest has appeared on Tidbits. This is located near the Marshall Islands. ~ Steve πŸŽƒ HappyHalloween!πŸ‘» 04:24, October 31, 2019 (UTC)

Now code yellow on JTWC. ~ Steve πŸŽƒ HappyHalloween!πŸ‘» 15:58, October 31, 2019 (UTC)
Upped to code orange. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 15:18, November 1, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (99W)

JMA TD declared (30 knots/35 mph and 1004 mbar), still code orange on JTWC. This could be a potentially significant, but hopefully fishspinning, Halong. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 03:12, November 2, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Halong

It's been named and expected to become a major typhoon. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 22:08, November 2, 2019 (UTC)

Looks well organized and poised to RI. -- JavaHurricane 11:37, November 3, 2019 (UTC)
Currently 60 mph (50 knots) (JTWC) and 50 mph (45 knots)/992 mbar (JMA), should be a STS pretty soon. I also expect it to RI and it could get as high as C4-equivalent. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 17:22, November 3, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Halong

I think it's starting to RI. Up to STS strength according to JMA, 65 mph (55 knots)/985 mbar, and already a typhoon according to JTWC (75 mph/65 knots). ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 23:35, November 3, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Halong

Upped to typhoon intensity - 80 mph (70 knots)/970 mbar (JMA) and 100 mph (85 knots) (JTWC). I expect a peak as a C4-equivalent, maybe even a slight chance of super typhoon intensity if it really RIs. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:10, November 4, 2019 (UTC)

Now C4 equivalent, 130 mph. JTWC expects a peak of 125 knots (145 mph). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:31, November 5, 2019 (UTC)
Looks like a bona fide T7.5 with a CMG ring. 100 kt from JMA. -- JavaHurricane 07:09, November 5, 2019 (UTC)
Now a 130 kt Super Typhoon. -- JavaHurricane 09:13, November 5, 2019 (UTC)
Whoa, this exceeded expectations. Now a Category 5 according to JTWC (140 knots/160 mph). JMA has it at C4-equivalent intensity (115 knots/130 mph) and a 905 mbar pressure. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:21, November 5, 2019 (UTC)
JTWC intensity up to 180 mph (155 knots). What an insane beast this is! BTW, this is now the most intense storm of the season. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 23:16, November 5, 2019 (UTC)

(Edit Conflict) Yeah, 130 mph 10-min winds and 905 mbars now according to JMA, and 180 mph 1 min winds and 897 mbars according to JTWC. Halong's a fairly strong typhoon, and the fact that it's not affecting land at this intensity is all the better to see. Ryan1000 23:19, November 5, 2019 (UTC)

We finally have our fishspinning beast. After Lorenzo, Hagibis and Dorian I lost hope but I guess the season is never really over until it's over. Such a nice sight to see. Also, Halong is now the strongest and most intense cyclone this season, surpassing Dorian in both winds and pressure. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 04:59, November 6, 2019 (UTC)
Yeah, this is very nice. This is my favorite storm in a long time and could be getting the "S" grade in my retirement section for being so awesome. I'm really surprised how intense it got. But are you sure that it really surpassed Dorian's wind speed of 185 mph (a.k.a. reached 190 mph/165 knots)? It most likely tied it earlier, but I can't find anything about it reaching 190 mph, unless you were looking at gusts by mistake. Anyhow, seems like Halong is peaking and should weaken from here on out. Now 150 knots (175 mph) according to JTWC. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:28, November 6, 2019 (UTC)
Down to 155 mph (135 knots) (JTWC) and 120 mph (105 knots)/925 mbar (JMA). It was truly amazing how powerful it got while staying out to sea. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:08, November 6, 2019 (UTC)

Continuing its gradual weakening trend. Down to C3 strength according to JTWC (120 mph/105 knots) and according to JMA, it's now only 105 mph (90 knots)/950 mbar. Expected to die out by the weekend. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 03:58, November 7, 2019 (UTC)

Now only at C2-equivalent intensity according to JTWC (105 mph/90 knots) and down to 85 mph (75 knots)/970 mbar according to JMA. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:11, November 7, 2019 (UTC)
Barely hanging on as a typhoon, down to C1-equivalent intensity. 90 mph (80 knots) (JTWC), 75 mph (65 knots)/980 mbar (JMA). ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 04:15, November 8, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Halong (2nd time)

Down to TS intensity according to JMA (50 mph/45 knots and 994 mbar) while JTWC keeps it as a strong 70 mph (60 knot) TS. Expected to die out by tomorrow. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:17, November 8, 2019 (UTC)

Barely hanging on, 40 mph (35 knots)/1000 mbar (JMA), but still 65 mph (55 knots) according to JTWC. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 00:30, November 9, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Halong

So long, Halong. Great to see a powerful cat 5 fishspinner in the WPac. Usually the EPac produces these kinds of storms, albeit more rarely. Ryan1000 08:30, November 9, 2019 (UTC)

This was actually stronger than any other EPac Storm except for Patricia (I think). Goodbye to one of the most amazing storms I've ever tracked, for being so powerful and a fishspinner. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:50, November 9, 2019 (UTC)

Well, the JMA's pressure estimate is usually more conservative and they round to the nearest 5 mbars, so this may have been much more intense than the 905 it is estimated to have had. Haiyan was estimated by the JTWC to have been at 858 mbars at one point, which would've made it the strongest TC ever if it was official, but it wasn't. Ryan1000 19:38, November 9, 2019 (UTC)

25W.NAKRI (QUIEL)

90W.INVEST

This has popped up over the Philippines. Might be a re-Matmo if it develops. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 03:12, November 2, 2019 (UTC)

Now code yellow on JTWC. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:15, November 3, 2019 (UTC)
Code orange now. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 17:23, November 3, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (90W)

Now a TD according to JMA, with an intensity of 35 mph (30 knots)/1006 mbar. Code red on JTWC with a TCFA issued. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:12, November 4, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (90W/Quiel)

Named Quiel by PAGASA as it moved towards the Philippines. Expected to go very close to the archipelago but would later recurve/loop back towards the South China Sea. Nakri will most likely come from this. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:31, November 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nakri (Quiel)

Upgraded to a TS on JMA, 40 mph (35 knots)/998 mbar. Somehow, it's still not a TC according to JTWC yet. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:23, November 5, 2019 (UTC)

Finally declared a tropical depression according to JTWC, although they have it as a measly 30 mph (25 knots). Pressure down a bit to 996 mbar according to JMA, same wind speed. Expected to become a STS or a typhoon threatening Vietnam. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 23:18, November 5, 2019 (UTC)

Intensified a bit to 45 mph (40 knots)/994 mbar (JMA), still a 35 mph (30 knot) TD according to JTWC. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:30, November 6, 2019 (UTC)
Finally a TS according to JTWC - 45 mph (40 knots). It's been drifting towards the Philippines and expected to sharply turn westward soon. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:11, November 6, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nakri (Quiel)

Upgraded to a STS according to JMA, 60 mph (50 knots)/990 mbar. JTWC's intensity is up to 50 mph (45 knots). After drifting very slowly eastward during the past couple days, it should now be turning westward and accelerating towards Vietnam. A typhoon is looking very possible now. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 04:01, November 7, 2019 (UTC)

Almost a typhoon...70 mph (60 knots) and 980 mbar. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:12, November 7, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Nakri (Quiel)

Upgraded to a typhoon, 75 mph (65 knots) and 975 mbar. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:19, November 8, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nakri (Quiel) (2nd time)

Back down to STS status, 65 mph (55 knots) (JTWC) and 70 mph (60 knots)/980 mbar. Hopefully it will be pretty weak when it reaches Vietnam. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:45, November 9, 2019 (UTC)

Nearing landfall, currently 65 mph (55 knots)/985 mbar. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:36, November 10, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nakri (Quiel) (2nd time)

Down to TS status and making landfall in Vietnam, 50 mph (45 knots)/992 mbar (JMA) and 65 mph (55 knots) (JTWC). ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:34, November 10, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression/Remnants of Nakri (Quiel)

Nakri is down and out as JTWC and JMA issue their final warnings. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:55, November 11, 2019 (UTC)

Still on JMA's weather map (1002 mbar) but should be completely dead soon. It would be cool if its remnants moved into the NIO and redeveloped like Matmo. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:28, November 11, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Nakri (Quiel)

Down and out for good. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:09, November 12, 2019 (UTC)

27W.KALMAEGI (RAMON)

91W.INVEST

This is up on Tidbits to the southeast of Guam. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 23:26, November 5, 2019 (UTC)

Forecast to move northwest then southwest then westward towards Luzon. Could be a big one, I hope not. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 04:15, November 9, 2019 (UTC)
Code yellow now. Might become a TD or a TS (if ever, this is likely to become Kalmaegi as 92W is expected to become Fengshen). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:56, November 11, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Ramon)

Now a JMA TD, and PAGASA also upgraded at the same time. Code red on JTWC too. The race for Fengshen is on. Forecast to affect Luzon though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:22, November 12, 2019 (UTC)

Since 26W became Fengshen, this is now a strong candidate to become Kalmaegi. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:03, November 12, 2019 (UTC)
The WPac keeps on spitting out storms while all other basins are dead (although a 0/30 AOI in the EPac might briefly become something). This is likely to get as high as STS status, but I doubt a typhoon (for now). ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:16, November 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Ramon)

JMA upgrades Ramon to a TS and names it Kalmaegi, JTWC upgrades 91W to TD 27W. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 03:33, November 13, 2019 (UTC)

26W.FENGSHEN

92W.INVEST

Another invest, located near the International Dateline at the moment and forecast to move ENE. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 04:25, November 8, 2019 (UTC)

Now code yellow on JTWC. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 06:37, November 10, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (92W)

Up as a TD on JMA's weather map, 1008 mbar. This is likely to become Fengshen. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:37, November 10, 2019 (UTC)

TCFA issued, code red too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:56, November 11, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 26W

Now a TD according to JTWC, and looking likely to be yet another powerful typhoon. At least it should probably stay completely out to sea though. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:19, November 11, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fengshen

Upgraded by JMA, still a TD on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:02, November 12, 2019 (UTC)

Upgraded to a TS according to JTWC. Likely to become at least a C2-equivalent fishspinner but will stay weaker than Halong unless some unexpected miracle RI stunt happens. ~ Steve Message MeMy EditsπŸ“§ 16:20, November 12, 2019 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions

With ten storms so far, and since Lekima caused considerable damage and loss of life in China, what are your thoughts on retirements thus far? Mine are here:

JMA:

  • Pabuk - 20% - Made for the second consecutive typhoon season with a year-crossing storm, with over 150 million USD damage in Thailand, but the death toll was low, and it's not too likely to be retired.
  • Wutip - 1% - Strongest (and only category 5) February typhoon on record, and the second-earliest WPac cat 5 after Ophelia in 1958, but fortunately it remained mostly at sea, with only minor damage to Guam.
  • Sepat - 0% - The minor rain in Japan doesn't justify any chance.
  • Mun - 1% - Small damage and a few deaths won't cut it, and southern China has seen worse.
  • Danas - 2% - Rather minor storm.
  • Nari - 0% - See Sepat.
  • Wipha - 2% - Wasn't much different than Mun.
  • Francisco - 5% - Caused some damage and a death in Japan and South Korea, but will probably stay.
  • Lekima - 100% - Killed at least 89 people with over 7 billion in damage, mostly from flooding and storm surge. Became the second-costliest typhoon ever in China, behind only 2013's Fitow. Shanghai may have dodged the worst part of the storm, but they still got hit quite hard, definitely hard enough to be retired.
  • Krosa - 2% - Killed 2 people with some minor damage, but won't be retired.
  • Bailu - 25% - Ineng may meet the Philippines retirement criteria but I doubt Bailu himself will go.
  • Podul - 4% - Minimal impacts at most.
  • Lingling - 10% - Did some damage to North Korea, but their retirement record isn't the best (Prapiroon in 2000 did billions in damage but didn't cut it) so Lingling may not either.
  • Kajiki - 8% - Stalled for some time near Vietnam with heavy rain, but 12.9 million in damage isn't that much.
  • Faxai - 0% - Hit Japan as a strong typhoon and caused up to 7 billion in damage, though Jebi last year did 15 billion and didn't cut it. Apparently the Japanese public refer to typhoons with numbers instead of names so that's why they didn't retire Jebi and won't retire Faxai either, as destructive as it was. And 2005's Nabi was retired due to religious reasons (Nabi also means "prophets" in Arabic), so that can't be used as a reference.
  • Peipah - 0% - The Failicia of this year's WPac season.
  • Tapah - 2% - Did some damage and killed a few people, but won't cut it.
  • Mitang - 15% - Wasn't as severe as Lekima.
  • Hagbis - 0% - See Faxai.
  • Neoguri - 0% - Small typhoon that remained offshore of Japan.
  • Bualoi - 0% - Stronger than Neoguri, but still a fishspinner.
  • Matmo - 6% - Caused some minor damage to Vietnam, but it's perhaps more notable for it's remnants managing to reach the NIO and reorganize into Tropical Cyclone Bulbul there, which might cause considerable impacts to Bangladesh soon.
  • Halong - 0% - This was probably the best storm of the season, a mighty, powerful category 5 storm, and it never affected land at any point in its lifetime.
  • Nakri - ?? - Still active to the west of the southern Philippines, though it might hit Vietnam sometime soon.

PAGASA:

  • Ineng - 100% - Meets the damage criteria of at least 1 billion PHP, so bye.
  • All other names - 0% - No other names have met their mandatory retirement criteria (1 billion PHP and/or 300 deaths), so nothing else is getting retired here.

There's mine...for now. Ryan1000 13:25, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

TG's Retirements

  • Pabuk: 5% - To be honest, Pabuk was a fairly notable system (mostly for the NIO), but otherwise, it is definitely not retirement worthy.
  • Wutip: 0% - Strongest NHem February storm on record, but luckily stayed out to sea. Wasn't the prettiest C5, but it was nevertheless a very interesting storm.
  • Sepat: 0% - Lol, no.
  • Mun: 0% - For this storm to have likely not reached winds of even 30 mph on reports, nor a really visible circulation, I don't see any reason to retire this thing lol.
  • Danas: 1% - Very minor storm. Lucky to not have caused much more for similar storms that have struck the Korean Peninsula at that strength.
  • Nari: 0% - Caused literally no damage, despite striking land. Thankfully, no deaths occurred in Japan.
  • Wipha: 5% - In my honest opinion, I believe that Wutip was likely stronger than it actually was according to JTWC, but its damage or deaths is nowhere near enough for retirement. Unfortunately, 10 fatalities occurred in this system.
  • Francisco: 0% - Since Japan doesn't retire names, I've went ahead and put this at 0%, although it would not have been much higher than 1%. Francisco was a fun storm to track, and thankfully, did not follow its original forecast of being a C2 typhoon upon Korean landfall. Only 1 fatality occurred in Francisco.
  • Lekima: 99% - Lekima was one of the most destructive typhoons of the decade, and one of the costliest for China on record. Lekima was also fairly deadly, and I believe that China will definitely request this storm. $7.3 billion is beyond enough for retirement in this basin. Although China is pretty weird about its retirements, it would really surprise me if they did not retire this.
  • Krosa: 1% - It was nice to have another major. No major damage from this storm, thankfully.
  • Bailu: 0% - Ongoing.

PAGASA: All names - 0%. TG 2019 16:05, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things

Explanations of tabs:

  • Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
  • In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
  • Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that may be chosen. This tab will not be done for the WPac because it's simply too complicated to figure out replacements for this basin.
  • How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.
All intensities are based off of JTWC's 1-min winds (except if only JMA or PAGASA monitored it as a tropical cyclone). Tropical depressions are included only if both agencies monitored it as a TD (JMA TDs or JTWC-exclusive TDs are not included).

International Names:

  • Pabuk: 6%, D - Formed on the last day of 2018 and crossed over, becoming the earliest named storm ever. This achievement ups its grade a bit. Very small chance of retirement just because it caused $156 million and 8 deaths in Thailand, but Indochina is pretty snubbish when it comes to retirements. Peaked at 60 mph according to JTWC and thus gets the strong tropical storm coloring.
  • 01W: N/A, F - Lasted a long time for a TD/disturbance, so I'll give it a bit of credit for that.
  • Wutip: 0.1%, A++ - What an amazing storm. Became the first C5 super typhoon in the month of February! And as a bonus, barely anyone was affected! Only $3.3 million in damage gives it a negligible retirement chance, but that damage unfortunately prevents it from receiving the "S" grade.
  • 03W: N/A, F- - Forgettable, at least it didn't steal a name. Only caused minor damages.
  • Sepat: ~0%, F- - Only considered subtropical by JTWC, it was quite the fail. Just a rainmaker for Japan - no damage or deaths.
  • 04W: N/A, F- - JMA kept it a TD, thank god.
  • Mun: 0.01%, F- - An epic fail, but doesn't get a Z because it caused impacts in China/Vietnam, albeit very minor.
  • Danas: 1%, E - Another minor storm. Some damage and deaths, but it's not going.
  • Nari: ~0%, F- - This failure just brought rain to Japan with no further impacts.
  • Wipha: 0.5%, E - Struck in a similar region to Mun, but was worse. Considering Vietnam received the brunt of impacts, it shouldn't go because the country never retires names. China might have received minimal impacts, which still gives it a non-zero chance.
  • Francisco: 0.2%, C - Japan received the brunt of impacts, but Korea got some as well. It shouldn't be retired for Korean impacts alone, but IMO, a non-zero chance exists due to Korea. Gets some grading points for becoming the first typhoon since Wipha and ending an excruciating wait.
  • LEKIMA: 99.999%, B+ - Now the costliest in Chinese history, so this is definitely going. The only problem is that they are a bit weird with retirements, so there's still a non-zero chance it will somehow be snubbed. Lekima's grade is nerfed a bit due to the devastation.
  • Krosa: ~0%, B - We got another major, nice. But it was sorta disappointing that it never re-intensified on its way to Japan like forecasts predicted. Caused the most impacts to Japan but they number, not name, storms and thus don't request anything. Negligible impacts to the Mariana Islands and the Korean Peninsula won't warrant retirement.
  • Bailu: 5%, D- - Became a STS by JMA, and caused some impacts from the Philippines to China. Impacts seem too light for the retirement of the international name, although its Philippine name "Ineng" meets PAGASA's retirement criteria.
  • Podul: 1%, E - Struck the Philippines, Hainan island, and Indochina, but impacts are not enough for it to be retired (although the 15 deaths are quite significant).
  • Lingling: 22%, A+ - Became a powerful typhoon as well as the first storm ever to make landfall in North Korea at typhoon intensity. With $236 million in damages, 8 deaths, and the rare strike to North Korea, this has a very small but significant chance of retirement.
  • Kajiki: 0.01%, F- - A name-stealer (never even considered a TS by JTWC) that brought only light impacts. Most impacts were in Vietnam, which never retires names, but parts of Hainan and China got very meager impacts as well.
  • Faxai: ~0%, A - Another strong typhoon, became the strongest to ever strike Tokyo. This powerful strike caused $7 billion and 3 deaths. But considering that Japan doesn't retire names, there's no chance of retirement.
  • Peipah: ~0%, Z - An absolute failure of a storm, and didn't affect anyone.
  • Tapah: 1%, D+ - This wasn't too bad for Japan, Korea, or the Ryukyu Islands. Sadly did not become a JTWC typhoon (only JMA upgraded it).
  • Mitag: 13%, B- - Killed 22 people, but I don't think this will be retired, considering damages were relatively light by Chinese standards and they've seen much worse.
  • Hagibis: 5%, A+ - A very powerful typhoon and historic storm for Japan. $9 billion and 86 deaths cements this as one of the worst in their history. But because Japan doesn't retire any names, this won't go unless it was bad enough for Guam and the Mariana Islands. The 5% grace percentage is just there in case those islands saw bad enough impacts, considering how powerful it was when it went through.
  • Neoguri: ~0%, A- - Barely affected any land except for Japan where it passed near. Grade is bumped up to A- due to it far outpeaking the initial forecasts that only called for a name-stealer at the most.
  • Bualoi: ~0%, A+ - An amazing fishspinner (for the most part), although the Caroline and Mariana Islands saw a little bit.
  • Matmo: 1%, D- - $53 million in damages, but assuming most of it occurred in Vietnam, it shouldn't be retired. Became a STS and even crossed into the NIO to redevelop there, so it gets a passing grade.
  • Halong: ~0%, S - One of the most amazing storms I've ever witnessed. It became among the most powerful beasts I've ever tracked, and completely stayed out to sea! :)
  • Nakri: 2%, C - People have died due to rains and flooding generated by Nakri in Luzon. As for impacts to Vietnam, see Matmo's section, although Nakri might not be as severe.
  • Fengshen: TBA, TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.


PAGASA:

  • INENG: 100% - Caused Php1.1 billion to Ilocos Norte, which meets their damage requirement.
  • All other storms: 0% - They don't meet their retirement criteria (1 billion PHP and/or 300 deaths).

Intensity colors: TD/SD, TS/SS (40-50 mph), TS/SS (60-70 mph), C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 (160-180 mph), 185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background, the color for "C5" was made more stark due to the severely of such storms, and a new color was added for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) so they would not be in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms that might be Category 6s if the category was introduced. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.


Retirement percentage colors: ~0%, 0%, or N/A; 0.001-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999%; ~100%, 100%; TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.


Grading colors: S, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John β€˜94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine β€˜12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve β€˜14 or Otis β€˜17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.


RETIRED: LEKIMA, INENG
Likely Retired:
Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired:
Likely Staying: Lingling
Staying: Pabuk, Wutip, Sepat, Mun, Danas, Nari, Wipha, Francisco, Krosa, Bailu, Podul, Kajiki, Faxai, Tapah, Mitag, Hagibis, Neoguri, Bualoi, Matmo, Halong, Nakri, all PAGASA names so far except Ineng


Projected retirements for currently active storms:

  • Fengshen - Staying, looking like a fishspinner
  • Ramon - Staying, will probably not be severe enough for the Philippines unless it pulls a Washi-like flood disaster

Retirement chance ranges for:

  • "Retired": 80-100%
  • "Likely Retired": 60-79%
  • "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
  • "Likely Staying": 20-39%
  • "Staying": 0-19%

Current outlook:

  • For international names, I expect that this season will end at or around Fung-wong.
  • It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Kalmaegi, or go further to Kammuri.
  • Phanfone or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Fengshen is also unlikely.
  • For the PAGASA, I expect that this season will end at or around Tisoy.
  • It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Sarah, or go further to Ursula.
  • Viring or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Ramon is also unlikely.
  • It's likely we will see around 1-2 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement (international) and 1-2 retirees for PAGASA. The first candidate is Lekima (international) and Ineng (PAGASA). The others are expected to occur in November, with a very small chance for December. PAGASA retirees are also possible in those months.

International Names:

  • Chances that Kalmaegi will be used: 90% - I would be surprised if TD Ramon doesn't become this.
  • Chances that Fung-wong will be used: 65% - As long as the season doesn't completely die out for the rest of the year, it's likely to form.
  • Chances that Kammuri will be used: 40% - Since the season has continued producing multiple storms through mid-November, this has a chance to come before the end of the year.
  • Chances that Phanfone will be used: 15% - It's getting doubtful that any names from here on out will be used in 2019.
  • Chances that Vongfong will be used: 1% - Extremely doubtful that a miracle late-season explosion on this scale would occur.
  • Chances that Nuri or beyond will be used: ~0% - A 2020 storm for sure.


PAGASA:

  • Chances that Sarah will be used: 75% - Likely to form, assuming the season doesn't completely shut down.
  • Chances that Tisoy will be used: 50% - An active late-season might bring us down to here. A coin toss, may or may not form.
  • Chances that Ursula will be used: 25% - Only a small chance at this point.
  • Chances that Viring will be used: 10% - The chances continue to decline, I highly doubt the late-season will be this active.
  • Chances that Weng will be used: 1% - Getting extremely doubtful.
  • Chances that Yoyoy or beyond will be used: ~0% - Pretty much impossible at this point.

Original forecast from August 25 for comparison:

  • For international names, I expect that this season will end at or around Nakri.
  • It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Bualoi, Matmo, or Halong, or go further to Fengshen, Kalmaegi, or Fung-wong.
  • Kammuri or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Neoguri or before is also unlikely.
  • For the PAGASA, I expect that this season will end at or around Tisoy.
  • It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Quiel, Ramon, or Sarah, or go further to Ursula, Viring, or Weng.
  • Yoyoy or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Perla or before is also unlikely.
  • It's likely we will see around 3 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement (international) and 1-2 retirees for PAGASA. The first candidate is Lekima. The others are expected to occur in September, October, or November, with a very small chance for December or by the end of August. PAGASA retirees are also expected in those months.

International Names:

  • Chances that Podul will be used: ~100% - This should come out of 99W.
  • Chances that Lingling will be used: ~100% - Expected to form by the end of the month or the start of September.
  • Chances that Kajiki will be used: ~100% - May arrive in early September.
  • Chances that Faxai will be used: ~100% - Probably an early-mid September storm.
  • Chances that Peipah will be used: ~100% - Will most likely be a mid-September storm.
  • Chances that Tapah will be used: 99.999% - I expect to see this in mid-late September.
  • Chances that Mitag will be used: 99% - Expected by the end of September.
  • Chances that Hagibis will be used: 96% - Expected by early October.
  • Chances that Neoguri will be used: 91% - Highly likely to form, probably by mid-October.
  • Chances that Bualoi will be used: 83% - Expected to occur in late October.
  • Chances that Matmo will be used: 74% - Probably will form by the end of October or in November.
  • Chances that Halong will be used: 65% - Still in favor of getting this far. Will probably be in November.
  • Chances that Nakri will be used: 56% - Chances still slightly in favor. Expected to form in November or December. May be the season's last storm.
  • Chances that Fengshen will be used: 48% - Starts dropping below a coin toss. If it does form, it will most likely be by the end of November or December. Like Nakri, most likely to be the last storm. *currently up to here*
  • Chances that Kalmaegi will be used: 39% - The chances are getting lower. If Kalmaegi does come this year, it should be in December.
  • Chances that Fung-wong will be used: 30% - Only a slight chance of getting this far in 2019.
  • Chances that Kammuri will be used: 22% - I doubt we will get this far.
  • Chances that Phanfone will be used: 15% - I really doubt it. The season will really have to explode.
  • Chances that Vongfong will be used: 8% - The chances have dwindled into the single digits. This should be a 2020 storm.
  • Chances that Nuri will be used: 3% - Nope. I expect to see this name in 2020.
  • Chances that Sinlaku will be used: 0.8% - Chances are nearing zero. Hyperactive miracle activity will have to somehow take place the rest of the season, making this year much above average. Should not happen.
  • Chances that Hagupit will be used: 0.01% - I would be left with absolutely no words if the season somehow got to this point...
  • Chances that Jangmi or beyond will be used: ~0% - A 2020 storm for sure.


PAGASA:

  • Chances that Jenny will be used: ~100% - It's guaranteed this year, most likely from 99W.
  • Chances that Kabayan will be used: ~100% - Also guaranteed, probably by the start of September.
  • Chances that Liwayway will be used: ~100% - Should be here in September.
  • Chances that Marilyn will be used: ~100% - Should also form by the end of September.
  • Chances that Nimfa will be used: 99.9% - No reason why this won't be used. Might be here by early October.
  • Chances that Onyok will be used: 98% - I would faint if this isn't used. Mid-October most likely.
  • Chances that Perla will be used: 91% - Expected by late-October most likely.
  • Chances that Quiel will be used: 78% - Highly likely to come, probably by the end of October or November.
  • Chances that Ramon will be used: 69% - Chances still in favor, might be seen in November. *currently up to here*
  • Chances that Sarah will be used: 60% - A November-December storm assuming it comes.
  • Chances that Tisoy will be used: 52% - Chances are just slightly above a coin toss, may be the last of the season.
  • Chances that Ursula will be used: 43% - Still possible to get up to here, though the chances are declining.
  • Chances that Viring will be used: 35% - Only a slight chance at this point. Chances are in favor of not getting this far down.
  • Chances that Weng will be used: 26% - Getting more doubtful.
  • Chances that Yoyoy will be used: 18% - Weird name lol. Most likely not getting this far down.
  • Chances that Zigzag will be used: 10% - Another funny name! But it is extremely doubtful the season will reach this name.
  • Chances that Abe will be used: 4% - Not getting into the auxiliary list unless a miracle explosion somehow occurs. Even if a realistic explosion occurs, activity will probably fall short.
  • Chances that Berto will be used: 1% - The PAGASA region will need to consume several shots of energy drinks and caffeine to get this far, somehow. I don't expect to come close.
  • Chances that Charo will be used: 0.3% - Ok, now this is just getting out of hand.
  • Chances that Dado will be used: 0.001% - The formation of this would leave me without words....
  • Chances that Estoy or beyond will be used: ~0% - Not happening this year.

~ Steve Talk PageMy EditsπŸ“§ 04:03, August 26, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 16:49, November 12, 2019 (UTC))

Sandy's retirements and grades

Ok, here we go!

(Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%/0.1%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%, TBA, Fail%, N/A)

(Category colors: TS, STS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

(Grading colors: S, A+++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z, TBA)

JMA:

  • Pabuk: C, 7.5% β€” A great year and basin crossover storm that is the earliest named storm in the WPac and NIO on record. It impacted the Malay Peninsula, inflicting $157 million (USD) and causing 10 deaths. I doubt this will be going.
  • Wutip: A++, 0.1% β€” A wonderful C5 typhoon that is the strongest tropical cyclone in the NHEM ever recorded in the month of February. Wutip inflicted only $3.3 million (USD) on Guam and Micronesia, which means it’s staying.
  • Sepat: F, 0% β€” Um, pretend this storm didn’t exist.
  • Mun: F, 0.01% β€” This weak storm only caused minimal damage and a couple of deaths; it’ll stay.
  • Danas: E, 1% β€” Danas was a rather minor storm to Korea, causing $6.42 million (USD) and 6 deaths.
  • Nari: F, 0% β€” A weak storm that only caused rains in Japan.
  • Wipha: E, 5% β€” Relatively minor storm, causing $44.3 million and 27 deaths. I also doubt this will be going.
  • Francisco: C, 0% β€” Like TG said, Japan doesn’t request to retire names, they number them instead. This broke the streak of the consecutive TSs and only caused 1 death in Japan.
  • Lekima: A-, 99% β€” This will be going. Lekima inflicted $9.28 billion in China alone, becoming the costliest typhoon in China on record. China will highly likely request the name to be retired because of the damage. Impacts aside, this was a good storm to track.
  • Krosa: B, 0% β€” Had a huge eye after its peak, caused $2.64 million in damages and 3 deaths but since Japan doesn’t retire names, it’s a 0%.
  • Bailu: D-, 1% β€” A typical severe tropical storm, but was forecast to be a typhoon once. It caused some relatively minor impacts so far in China and the Philippines.
  • Podul: TBA β€” Currently active.

PAGASA:

  • Ineng: 100% β€” This name is going. It caused 1.1 billion pesos to the Philippines.
  • All other names: 0%, they don’t meet the criteria of Php1 billion or/and 300 deaths.

Sandy156 :) 04:49, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

[Updated as of 00:35, August 29, 2019 (UTC)]


IbAHAn1829's / The Chosen Wizard's Name Retirement Chances

West Pacific Typhoon:

This season has already seen its fair share of typhoons, as listed below:

International Naming List:

  • Tropical Storm Pabuk - Caused some casualties in Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. (25%)
  • Typhoon Wutip - Imagine that the strongest typhoon this year happens in February. (0%)
  • Tropical Storm Sepat - Weak storm, caused rain, the end. (0%)
  • Tropical Storm Mun - It did stuff. (0%)
  • Tropical Storm Danas - Went to South Korea. (0%)
  • Tropical Storm Nari - Did barely anything. (0%)
  • Tropical Storm Wipha - Little too close to Hong Kong. Wrong time, Wipha. (0%)
  • Typhoon Francisco - Did things. (0%)
  • Typhoon Lekima - VERY bad typhoon. The name will be retired. (99%)
  • Typhoon Krosa - It spun fish and also affected Japan. (0%)
  • Tropical Storm Bailu - Haiyan's replacement was much less destructive and aggressive, minus the three unfortunate deaths. (0%)
  • Tropical Storm Podul - Affected China. (0%)
  • Typhoon Lingling - Typhoon that affected the Koreas. (1%)
  • Tropical Storm Kajiki - Affected Vietnam and South China. (1%)
  • Typhoon Faxai - Bad for Japan, but they've fared worse. (2%)
  • Tropical Storm Peipah - Known only because it existed. (0%)

PAGASA Naming List:

  • Tropical Depression Amang - Caused landslides. (0%)
  • Tropical Depression Betty - Nothing. (0%)
  • Tropical Depression Chedeng - Weak, did barely anything. (0%)
  • Tropical Depression Dodong - Nope, nothing. (0%)
  • Tropical Depression Egay - Nothing. (0%)
  • Tropical Storm Falcon - Caused floods in Luzon. (0%)
  • Tropical Depression Goring - I have nothing to say. (0%)
  • Typhoon Hanna - Sank three boats, sadly taking the lives of 31 people. Other than that, this name will not be retired. (0%)
  • Tropical Storm Ineng - The same as Betty, Chedeng, Dodong, Egay, and Goring. (0%) I'm kidding, this name MAY be retired. (50%)
  • Tropical Depression Jenny - The same as Betty and four of the above names. Funny how all the storms that basically did nothing end with the letters "g" or "y". (0%)
  • Tropical Depression Kabayan - The same as Jenny and five of the above names! Funny how all the storms that basically did nothing end with the letters "g" or "y". (0%)
  • Typhoon Liwayway - Did nothing to the Philippines. So it is basically THE SAME AS KABAYAN AND SIX OF THE ABOVE NAMES!
  • Tropical Depression Marilyn-Nimfa - Double-named storm. Sank multiple ships, sadly. Thankfully, from what we know so far, no one died. (0.01%)

TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 14:16, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

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