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Future start[]
Welcome to the 2020-21 South-West Indian Ocean forum page! I look forward to seeing what the basin offers this years! Given the current probabilities of ENSO conditions, I will not be surprised if we see an active season. 21:35, July 3, 2020 (UTC)
- And the season starts today, with two systems (STS Alicia and TD 02) active. Nutfield001 (talk) 22:46, November 15, 2020 (UTC)
Seasonal forecasts[]
| Agency | Date of release | Named storms forecast |
Whenever an agency issues a new forecast, simply add it to the bottom row of the above table. Be sure to include the link to the forecast, as well as any major information (e.g. date of release, named storms predicted). If a forecast is written in a language besides English, please indicate this next to the agency name. Please let another user know if you have any further questions. 21:35, July 3, 2020 (UTC)
July[]
92S.INVEST[]
AOI: East of the Seychelles[]
Well, look what we have here. The MFR is monitoring a new AOI with code yellow (low chances) east of the Seychelles and northeast of Madagascar. I would be very surprised if "Alicia" (my sister's name BTW) comes this soon, but nonetheless, it's interesting to see activity here during the SHem winter. ~ Steve 22:40, July 17, 2020 (UTC)
92S.INVEST[]
Invested, but still code yellow on MFR. There seems to be some model support on Tidbits, so maybe we can see "Alicia" in the middle of the SHem winter? I kinda doubt it though, but it might be at least a disturbance or depression. ~ Steve 18:31, July 20, 2020 (UTC)
Now on JTWC with code yellow. ~ Steve 20:23, July 21, 2020 (UTC)
- This storm is weird. Still on the JTWC site as code yellow. Chosen Wizard (⛅ NERD) (Inputs) 16:41, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
- Actually it might not even develop after all - the MFR and JTWC are no longer monitoring it, but the NRL still has it up. ~ Steve 19:54, July 24, 2020 (UTC)
August[]
AOI: Near Equator[]
Once again, the South-West Indian Ocean produces an off-season AOI! Located near the Equator, a Rossby wave and favorable divergent air conditions could prompt the development of a low-pressure system in the next couple of days. However, this system will also have to contend with unfavorable shear and dry air conditions. Moreover, neither the NRL nor the JTWC have invested this AOI. Per Météo-France, chances of formation will rise to low (i.e. 10% to 30%) by September 1. 04:44, August 30, 2020 (UTC)
- Now off their outlook. Nutfield001 (talk) 18:08, September 1, 2020 (UTC)
September[]
91S.INVEST[]
Another off-season AOI is being monitored in this area, this time by the NRL and JTWC, given code yellow by that latter. Not monitored by Méteo-France though so far. It'll be interesting to see what this does, but it'll have to contend with strong shear in the area. Nutfield001 (talk) 06:05, September 4, 2020 (UTC)
- No longer monitored by JTWC, but NRL and Tidbits still has this up. Nutfield001 (talk) 21:06, September 5, 2020 (UTC)
November[]
02S.NONAME[]
AOI: Western-Central Indian Ocean[]
Another AOI also being tracked by Méteo-France, located between Seychelles and the British Indian Ocean territory. Formation chances are below 30%. Will likely not form. Nutfield001 (talk) 21:16, November 9, 2020 (UTC)
- Code orange on MFR's site. Nutfield001 (talk) 16:48, November 12, 2020 (UTC)
93S.INVEST[]
Invested according to NRL. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:28, November 13, 2020 (UTC)
- Code yellow on JTWC, who's also mistakenly marked this system as 93B in the main site graphic. Nutfield001 (talk) 00:25, November 14, 2020 (UTC)
- Code orange now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:19, November 14, 2020 (UTC)
Down to code yellow on MFR's site. Nutfield001 (talk) 17:46, November 14, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Depression 02[]
MFR is now issuing advisories on this system. Code red/TCFA issued on JTWC. Also apparently the colour codes for probability actually assess the chance of TS formation, not general TC formation (>ZoDW), which explains the decreased chances yesterday. Anyway, this isn't forecast to strengthen to a TS given easterly shear, presumably from Alicia's outflow, so Bongoyo will have to wait. Nutfield001 (talk) 22:46, November 15, 2020 (UTC)
Post-Tropical Depression 02[]
Final warnings issued by MFR over 9 hours ago and the JTWC 12 hours ago. Nutfield001 (talk) 21:16, November 16, 2020 (UTC)
- TD 02's remnants back up on JTWC's outlook as code yellow. Nutfield001 (talk) 02:58, November 17, 2020 (UTC)
- Off their outlook entirely. Nutfield001 (talk) 22:21, November 17, 2020 (UTC)
01S.ALICIA[]
92S.INVEST[]
New NRL invest located (barely) in the northwestern corner of the Western Region AOR, several hundred miles west of Sumatra and near the equator. Will soon enter SWIO territory. Nutfield001 (talk) 20:45, November 9, 2020 (UTC)
- So the red blob on MFR's outlook is actually this system... Anyway GFS ensembles take this to C1-equivalent strength and we might see Alicia out of this system if those verify. Still in the Australian region, although it's expected to cross basins soon. Code yellow on JTWC. Nutfield001 (talk) 21:31, November 11, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Disturbance 01[]
Now in SWIO territory and is a tropical disturbance per RSMC Réunion. Code red/TCFA issued on JTWC. MFR expects this to be a 80mph tropical cyclone, so say hello to Alicia. Nutfield001 (talk) 16:48, November 12, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Depression 01[]
Upgraded to a TD per MFR. Nutfield001 (talk) 03:01, November 13, 2020 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Alicia[]
Upgraded by MFR. Now code red with TCFA issued according to JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:28, November 13, 2020 (UTC)
- Say hello to my sister's name (Alicia). A great way to kick off the whole SHem season with a storm named after her (lol)! She could become a modest or possibly a strong fishspinning tropical cyclone, with a forecast peak of 75 knots (85 mph). ~ Steve 21:31, November 13, 2020 (UTC)
JTWC now has this as a 40mph TC. 80mph peak expected from them. Nutfield001 (talk) 00:23, November 14, 2020 (UTC)
Severe Tropical Storm Alicia[]
60/992 (both 1 and 10-min). MFR now expects a peak of 90mph. Nutfield001 (talk) 17:49, November 14, 2020 (UTC)
- Now a C1-equivalent TC according to JTWC. Still an STS under MFR's eyes, which no longer anticipates strengthening. Shame, since it would've been nice to open the season with a C1-equivalent TC (JTWC doesn't count). Nutfield001 (talk) 22:46, November 15, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Cyclone Alicia[]
Actually, I spoke too soon. 75/979 per latest MFR advisory. Nutfield001 (talk) 07:31, November 16, 2020 (UTC)
Severe Tropical Storm Alicia (2nd time)[]
Back to STS status now, and is expected to weaken from this point thereon. Also only a 50mph TS per JTWC. Nutfield001 (talk) 21:13, November 16, 2020 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Alicia (2nd time)[]
This is weakening fast thanks to dry air. Now only a moderate TS per 00Z MFR advisory. Nutfield001 (talk) 00:50, November 17, 2020 (UTC)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alicia[]
Gone. Nutfield001 (talk) 22:21, November 17, 2020 (UTC)
December[]
01U.BONGOYO[]
Zone of Disturbed Weather 01U[]
Crossed into the SWIO basin yesterday and is now a zone of disturbed weather according to MFR who've also upped this system to code orange. Down to code yellow on JTWC though. Nutfield001 (talk) 17:44, December 1, 2020 (UTC)
- Code orange on JTWC. Unfavourable conditions set to kick in by Sunday, hopefully this can become Bongoyo. Nutfield001 (talk) 22:14, December 3, 2020 (UTC)
- Code red/TCFA issued on JTWC. Still held at code orange for TC development on MFR. Looks like this will become Bongoyo before unfavourable shear kicks in. Nutfield001 (talk) 04:02, December 5, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Disturbance 03[]
Upgraded to a Tropical Disturbance per MFR which expects a 40kt peak from this storm. Still code red on JTWC. Nutfield001 (talk) 16:51, December 6, 2020 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Bongoyo[]
And it's been named. 40/996 per latest MFR advisory. Expected to track southwest and then west towards the north of Rodrigues island under the influence of a subtropical ridge. Nutfield001 (talk) 07:34, December 7, 2020 (UTC)
Severe Tropical Storm Bongoyo[]
This strengthened quickly. Currently 65/988. Might gain a little more strength before it starts to weaken today. Nutfield001 (talk) 07:51, December 8, 2020 (UTC)
- Looks like Bongoyo has peaked at that strength and is expected to weaken from this point onwards. Nutfield001 (talk) 23:01, December 8, 2020 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Bongoyo (2nd time)[]
Weakened to a MTS as Bongoyo moves into a region of stronger shear and cooler SSTs. Expected to degenerate into a remnant low by midday on Friday (11/12). Nutfield001 (talk) 03:43, December 10, 2020 (UTC)
- Now only a 35kt minimal TS as it starts to take a westward course towards Réunion and Mauritius, although this would have collapsed completely by then. Nutfield001 (talk) 23:50, December 10, 2020 (UTC)
Remnants of Bongoyo[]
Final advisory issued by MFR. JTWC should soon follow suit. Nutfield001 (talk) 04:02, December 11, 2020 (UTC)
- JTWC have issued their final warning as Bongoyo gets ripped into a naked swirl. Nutfield001 (talk) 07:15, December 11, 2020 (UTC)
98S.INVEST[]
Located in the middle of the Indian Ocean northwest of 01U/95S. Only on the NRL and Tidbits for now. Nutfield001 (talk) 20:46, December 5, 2020 (UTC)
- De-invested. RIP. Nutfield001 (talk) 07:34, December 7, 2020 (UTC)
04S.NONAME[]
93S.INVEST[]
Located in the middle of the Eastern Indian Ocean around 7.4S 86.8E. Code yellow on JTWC. Currently being tracked by the MFR but not marked for TC development over the next 5 days. Nutfield001 (talk) 07:47, 18 December 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Disturbance[]
Upgraded to a tropical disturbance per MFR. Still not expected to reach MTS intensity, with no blob on their outlook. Nutfield001 (talk) 17:03, 19 December 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Low in the northwestern corner of the region (93S.INVEST)[]
And this disturbance has reported to have crossed basins today. May cross back into MFR's region at some point, but no strengthening is anticipated. Nutfield001 (talk) 17:29, 20 December 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Depression 04U[]
Already crossed into the Australian Region. See this section for the continuation. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:24, 23 December 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Depression 05[]
Returned from the Australian basin. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:13, 1 January 2021 (UTC)
- Still code orange on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:50, 2 January 2021 (UTC)
Remnants of 05 (Invest 93S)[]
Down to code yellow on JTWC and already dissipated according to MFR. Eloise might have to wait a little longer. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:05, 3 January 2021 (UTC)
05S.NONAME[]
Zone of Disturbed Weather 04[]
Been around for a while now, was tracked since yesterday or 2 days ago. Invested as 95S and is expected to reach MTS intensity in the long-run. We could be saying hello to Chalane here. Nutfield001 (talk) 17:28, 20 December 2020 (UTC)
- This might actually reach tropical cyclone intensity per the GFS ensembles on tidbits, both before hitting Madagascar and in the Mozambique Channel before moving into Mozambique. If that happens, there could be some noteworthy impacts from this. Ryan1000 18:04, 21 December 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Depression 04[]
Now a TD. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:11, 23 December 2020 (UTC)
Remnants of 04[]
Long gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:05, 3 January 2021 (UTC)
07S.CHALANE[]
Moderate Tropical Storm Chalane[]
New system in the SWIO, expected to move over Madagascar; however... Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:38, 26 December 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Chalane[]
... Chalene is currently down to TD status according to MFR. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:38, 26 December 2020 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Chalane (2nd time)[]
Meanwhile, the 3rd system of S.A season (Oquira) is thriving.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:05, 30 December 2020 (UTC)
- I thought that this was 5S above, but anyways, Chalane made landfall near Beira, Mozambique as a tropical storm a short while ago. Hopefully impacts there aren't too severe. Ryan1000 14:38, 30 December 2020 (UTC)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chalane[]
Gone two days ago. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:13, 1 January 2021 (UTC)
January[]
08S.DANILO[]
Tropical Depression 06 (Invest 96S)[]
Code orange on JTWC but TCFA already issued. This one is near Diego Garcia. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:13, 1 January 2021 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Danilo[]
40 mph, 996 mbars. Code red on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:58, 1 January 2021 (UTC)
- Finally recognized by JTWC. 45 mph (10-min), 50 mph (1-min). 992 millibars. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:50, 2 January 2021 (UTC)
Severe Tropical Storm Danilo[]
Now an STS: 60 mph / 95 kph (10-min), 65 mph / 100 kph (1-min). Pressure down to 986. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:13, 3 January 2021 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Danilo (2nd time)[]
Danilo is back to MTS status after reaching at 100 kph (10-min) / 110 kph (1-min). Current winds at 65 kph (10-min) / 95 kph (1-min) while its pressure increased to 995 hectopascals. It is widely expected that Danilo will restrengthen and pose a threat to Mauritius and Réunion by the weekend though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:30, 4 January 2021 (UTC)
- JTWC forecasts a cat 1, but later weakens Danilo to a tropical storm when it reaches the two islands. Still a ways ahead, but this is nonetheless a storm to watch out for, especially if it gets stronger. Ryan1000 01:07, 6 January 2021 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Danilo[]
Weakened to a TD per MFR but still a TS on JTWC. Danilo is now expected to pass very close to Mauritius and Réunion (or even make landfalls in those islands). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:26, 8 January 2021 (UTC)
Remnants of Danilo[]
Long gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:39, 16 January 2021 (UTC)
12S.ELOISE[]
Tropical Depression 07 (Invest 99S)[]
MFR considers this as a TD. 998 mbar, 35 mph/55 kph. Code red on JTWC + TCFA issued. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:39, 16 January 2021 (UTC)
- The GFS ensembles on tidbits take this to Madagascar and later Mozambique as a tropical storm, though these same ensembles predicted a TS/cat 1 out of Danilo before it passed by Mauritius and Reunion, yet it was only a TD when it did so. Hopefully this doesn’t get too severe for them. Ryan1000 03:00, 17 January 2021 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Eloise[]
E L O I S E I S H E R E ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 09:35, 17 January 2021 (UTC)
- Forecast to hit Madagascar in the coming days. Hopefully Eloise won't cause severe damage there. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:44, 17 January 2021 (UTC)
- Pressure down to 988, but winds only slightly increased to 85 kph (50 mph) according to MFR and JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:00, 18 January 2021 (UTC)
- The JTWC is becoming more and more confident that Eloise will be a hurricane-strength storm when she reaches Mozambique, and it looks like Eloise could even make it as far south as Maputo, the capital of the country, as a tropical storm by the end of the forecast period. Not since TS Domoina in 1984 has Maputo seen a direct passover from a tropical cyclone. Before Domoina, the only other tropical storm to pass over Maputo in the Satellite Era was Tropical Storm Claude (albeit its extratropical remnants) in January 1966.Ryan1000 22:50, 19 January 2021 (UTC)
Overland Depression Eloise[]
Down to an OD on MFR, still a TS on JTWC. Hopefully Madagascar didn't suffer that much and hopefully Mozambique, Lesotho and South Africa are preparing for Eloise's likely impacts. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:58, 20 January 2021 (UTC)
- JTWC expects a cat 2 out of Eloise now, and takes her close to Beira instead of south towards Maputo, all less than 2 years after Idai destroyed most of the city. Hopefully they prepare better this time than they did for Idai. The last thing they need is another huge tragedy like what they saw two years ago. Ryan1000 01:08, 21 January 2021 (UTC)
Tropical Cyclone Eloise[]
After becoming a TS a little time ago, Eloise is now a full-fledged tropical cyclone, with 85 mph 1-min winds by the JTWC, and 75 mph 10-min by MFR. It looks like Beira will get hit once again fairly soon, and by quite a big storm at that. Thankfully the winds of Eloise aren't as high as Idai's 120 mph winds at landfall in 2019, so the storm surge likely won't be as big with Eloise as it was with Idai, but impacts could still be severe in parts of the city. Ryan1000 17:37, 22 January 2021 (UTC)
Landfall near Beira[]
Eloise is currently moving ashore near Beira as a category 1 cyclone, still at the same 85 mph as this morning but the pressure is down to 974 mbars from 979 previously. Surge and wind damage could be extensive in the city, as could flooding as Eloise moves inland. Ryan1000 22:41, 22 January 2021 (UTC)
Intensified to C2 with winds of 100mph (1 minute sustained), 90mph (10-minute sustained). Pressure is 967mbar.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:27, 23 January 2021 (UTC)
Overland Depression Eloise (2nd time)[]
Down to 55 kph (35 mph) per MFR, but still a high-end TS on JTWC (110 kph/70 mph). Pressure upped to 987 mb. Sadly it seems that the SWIO Eloise is replicating her 1975 Atlantic incarnation: 4 deaths so far, around 100,000 people displaced. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:02, 23 January 2021 (UTC)
- On closer inspection, it looks like Bill was right, the JTWC upgraded Eloise to a 100 mph cat 2 just before she hit Mozambique near Beira. Hopefully better evacuations and other preparations lessen the death toll compared to Idai two years ago. Flooding in central Mozambique and other inland countries is already proving to be quite heavy. Ryan1000 22:53, 23 January 2021 (UTC)
Aftermath of Eloise[]
Eloise died some time ago, but it's impacts were quite extensive. It is currently reported that at least 19 people died in the storm and 4 others were missing, but that's thankfully much less than Idai 2 years ago. Damages are still unknown. Ryan1000 16:52, 28 January 2021 (UTC)
10S.JOSHUA[]
Moderate Tropical Storm Joshua[]
Moved from the Australian Region. See this for his (short) time there. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:52, 17 January 2021 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Joshua[]
And Joshua is almost gone. 1003 mb, 30 kts (35 mph/55 kph) per MFR. JTWC still maintains TS status: 75 kph/45 mph (40 kts) as of their most recent update. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:58, 18 January 2021 (UTC)
Remnants of Joshua[]
Died roughly a day ago. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:55, 20 January 2021 (UTC)
13S.NONAME[]
Tropical Depression 09[]
Moved from the Australian basin yesterday. JTWC has issued its final warning on this system though; Faraji might wait a little longer. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:56, 28 January 2021 (UTC)
Remnants of Tropical Depression 09 (13S)[]
Gone yesterday but its remnants are currently monitored by JTWC (code yellow). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:13, 29 January 2021 (UTC)
- No longer on JTWC's outlook, finally. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:55, 2 February 2021 (UTC)
February[]
19S.FARAJI[]
Moderate Tropical Storm Faraji[]
Moderate Tropical Storm Faraji has formed. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is listing this as Tropical Cyclone 19S. I don't know if that's a typo and it's supposed to be 14S or what. They do forecast it to strengthen to high-end Category 3 equivalent cyclone with 110 knot winds while staying out at sea. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 17:16, 5 February 2021 (UTC)
- Not a typo, it's really 19S as there was an 18S that existed in the Australian Region (designated by BOM as 12U). Faraji will probably become the strongest of the season, and I am happy that it stays at sea. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:20, 5 February 2021 (UTC)
Tropical Cyclone Faraji[]
It is now a tropical cyclone on the MFR scale and a category 1 on the SSHWS. JTWC estimates 75 knot (85 mph winds) while Meteo-France estimates 85 knot (100 mph) winds. It has also surpassed Cyclone Eloise as the most intense storm of the season with a 965 mBar pressure. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 00:40, 7 February 2021 (UTC)
Intensified to C3 on SSHWS scale.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 02:36, 7 February 2021 (UTC)
BTW, this system featured a pinhole eye (which is very unnerving)ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 02:38, 7 February 2021 (UTC)
- In this case, it's pretty neat to see a pinhole eye and some RI (since Faraji is far from any land areas, and isn't likely to be a significant threat to land anytime soon), it can get as strong as it wants without any worries. Hopefully it can crack cat 4 while out to sea. It might not reach cat 5 though. Ryan1000 07:14, 7 February 2021 (UTC)
Intense Tropical Cyclone Faraji[]
Faraji now a C4 on SSHWS scale (130mph 1 minute sustained)/120mph (10-minute sustained) with pressure of 939mBar.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 10:56, 7 February 2021 (UTC)
- Back to a high-end C3 (205 kph; 1-min) but pressure remains the same. 10-min winds at 195 kph per MFR. Faraji still looks good on satellite imagery though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:33, 7 February 2021 (UTC)
Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Faraji[]
Weakening has not occurred. This storm has grown to Category 5 strength! ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 21:28, 8 February 2021 (UTC)
This thing is an Annular guys...ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:55, 8 February 2021 (UTC)
Down to 155mph C4 now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk)
- In the meantime, Faraji's pressure remains at 925 mb and 10-min winds are still at 230 kph. I really am delighted to see a fishspinning, C5-peaking cyclone after quite a long time. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 04:29, 9 February 2021 (UTC)
Faraji caught me by surprise by this sudden stint of RI, I didn't expect that it would crack cat 5 but it looks like it did. The last full-on fishspinning cat 5 in the SHem was Cyclone Ernie in 2017, though it was operationally a cat 4 before being upgraded in reanalysis. Also, Cyclone Marcus of 2018 and Cyclone Fantala of 2016 didn't affect land while at category 5 intensity, but they did affect land as weaker systems, Marcus as a TS near Darwin before it intensified to a 5, and Fantala's remnants caused flooding in parts of Tanzania. Ryan1000 07:13, 9 February 2021 (UTC)
Tropical Cyclone Faraji (2nd time)[]
Probably became an ITC (intense tropical cyclone) before this but Faraji is now just a TC that is currently a C2 on the SSHWS: 155 kph (100 mph) on MFR, 175 kph (110 mph) on JTWC; pressure at 962 hPa. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:05, 10 February 2021 (UTC)
Severe Tropical Storm Faraji[]
988 mb. Wikipedia says JTWC still has Faraji at 110 kph, but when I went to their site the winds are now down to 95 kph. Meteo-France (MFR) maintains 100 kph for now. Faraji's demise is near. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:23, 12 February 2021 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Faraji (2nd time)[]
It was at this stage on Saturday...ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 07:04, 15 February 2021 (UTC)
Remnant of Faraji[]
...But it’s gone now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 07:04, 15 February 2021 (UTC)
21S.GUAMBE[]
93S.INVEST[]
This system is active for some days now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 07:06, 15 February 2021 (UTC)
CODE ORANGE ON JTWC.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 07:07, 15 February 2021 (UTC)
- Weirdly this is code orange while over the African landmass... maybe this will move towards the Mozambique Channel soon? Nonetheless, I hope 93S is not causing trouble in that part of southern Africa. (On a side note, sorry for being inactive recently; personal reasons of course.) Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:05, 15 February 2021 (UTC)
Code red.TCFA issued.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 04:52, 16 February 2021 (UTC)
Tropical Disturbance 11[]
Now a tropical disturbance per MFR. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:52, 16 February 2021 (UTC)
Tropical Depression 11 (93S)[]
Upgraded by MFR to a tropical depression. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:14, 17 February 2021 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Guambe[]
Upgraded to MTS. Forecast to become a relatively strong system (an intense tropical cyclone, actually) while meandering off the coast of Mozambique. Winds are currently at 85 kph (MFR & JTWC), pressure at 988 mb (per latest MFR advisory). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:22, 17 February 2021 (UTC)
- I saw this forming on Tidbits a little time ago, but the track shifted farther west since I last checked. Still, it looks as though Guambe should miss Mozambique to the east, which is good for them. Ryan1000 06:26, 19 February 2021 (UTC)
Servere Tropical Storm Guambe[]
It was at this stage few days ago...
Tropical Cyclone Guambe[]
But now, it is a C2 equivalent tropical cyclone.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:29, 20 February 2021 (UTC)
Remnant of Guambe[]
Dead.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 16:21, 22 February 2021 (UTC)
March[]
22S.MARIAN[]
Intense Tropical Cyclone Marian[]
For continuity purposes I am still putting a separate section for Marian on this page, despite being in the basin for just 2 days (1-2 March). Marian maintained her peak 10-minute sustained winds here (165 kph/105 mph). However, she was down to C2 on JTWC's scale; 1-minute winds identical to the 10-minute average. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:08, 3 March 2021 (UTC)
24S.HABANA[]
Tropical Disturbance 13 (Invest 90S)[]
An unfinished Wikipedia section (as of this writing) says that Invest 90S is now considered by MFR as a tropical disturbance; this has been confirmed after checking the MFR site. Currently code orange on JTWC. Habana might come from this one. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:08, 3 March 2021 (UTC)
Intense Tropical Cyclone Habana (1st & 2nd time)[]
Strong Category 4 Cyclone Habana is spinning over the Southwest Indian Ocean today. It's got 10-min sustained winds of 100 knots and 1-min sustained winds of 115 knots. It also has an unusually high barometric pressure of 967 mBar. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 14:11, 5 March 2021 (UTC)
WHAT. HOW WHEN SO MANY QUESTION. (I didn’t know about Habana until now).ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:44, 5 March 2021 (UTC)
- IbAHAn, the 967 mbar pressure is from MFR, which is based on their estimated 10-minute winds of 115 mph. JTWC reports a 948 mbar pressure from their 130 mph estimate, (which is more realistic from a 130 mph storm), as you can see on Tropical Tidbits. Ryan1000 16:21, 5 March 2021 (UTC)
Habana is down to a C3 on JTWC, but remains an ITC on MFR. Sustained winds: 165 kph/105 mph (10-min), 195 kph/120 mph (1-min); pressure down to 957 mb. Habana is expected to maintain its strength in the coming days: while JTWC is expecting to downgrade Habana to C2 for the next 3 days, they also forecast a restrengthening trend towards the end of this week. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:02, 7 March 2021 (UTC)
- Weakened to C1 for a day but quickly reintensify. (It is a C4 now on March 10th).ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 16:06, 10 March 2021 (UTC)
- 155mph (1 minute sustained) per tidbits.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 17:27, 10 March 2021 (UTC)
- JTWC has confirmed 155 mph. Kinda shocked Habana is not yet a VITC on MFR's scale though. Anyway, Habana's current sustained winds are at 205 kph (10-min) / 250 kph (1-min); pressure at 938. Expected to gradually weaken again as it meanders in the southern Indian Ocean. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:40, 10 March 2021 (UTC)
Habana is still an ITC (albeit after undergoing yet another eyewall replacement cycle): 195 kph (120 mph) (10-min) / 230 kph (145 mph) (1-min), 940 hPa. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:12, 12 March 2021 (UTC)
- Habana is probably going to stick around for quite some time, it's racking up a lot of ACE for its longevity. Though it may not become another cat 5, this is still really cool to watch from a fishspinner. It's not every day the SHem produces a long-lived fishie like this. Ryan1000 18:56, 12 March 2021 (UTC)
Severe Tropical Storm Habana[]
And it is weakening, probably for the last time. Habana currently has 110 kph/70 mph sustained winds, both 10-minute and 1-minute (MFR & JTWC respectively). Pressure up at 974 mbars. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:30, 14 March 2021 (UTC)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Habana[]
And out. What a run though. Habana oh na na it was. So far the best storm of 2021. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:10, 17 March 2021 (UTC)
91S.IMAN[]
Tropical Depression 14[]
Tropical depression has been meandering in this basin for the past few days. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 14:14, 5 March 2021 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Iman[]
Upgraded by MFR a few days ago. Drenched Reunion, although damage is most likely just minimal. Iman's windspeed as of this writing: 65 kph/40 mph (10-min), 85 kph/50 mph (1-min); pressure at 996. Probably both figures came from MFR as this is still considered by JTWC as an invest. TCFA has been issued though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:58, 7 March 2021 (UTC)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Iman[]
Long gone.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 17:24, 10 March 2021 (UTC)
- Despite affecting several areas, thankfully Iman did not cause any deaths/injuries and just minor damage, although there were power outages and localized flooding in Reunion (where at least 309 mm of precipitation fell in an area there). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:17, 12 March 2021 (UTC)
98S.INVEST[]
This one is hundreds of miles northeast of Madagascar. Also code yellow on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:45, 26 March 2021 (UTC)
- Long gone now. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 16:25, April 19, 2021 (UTC)
April[]
29S.JOBO[]
Zone of Disturbed Weather 16[]
Declared a disturbance by MFR, which expects this to peak as a tropical storm. Coded yellow by the JTWC as 95S since yesterday. This'll probably be the last system of the 2020-21 SHEM season seeing as other basins are inactive close to the end of the season. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 16:25, April 19, 2021 (UTC)
- Code yellow on JTWC, listed as Invest 95S. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:01, 19 April 2021 (UTC)
- Now code orange on the JTWC. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 02:36, April 20, 2021 (UTC)
Tropical Depression 16[]
Now upgraded to a tropical depression per MFR. JTWC in addition issued a TCFA on the invest. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 14:05, April 20, 2021 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Jobo[]
Now upgraded to moderate tropical storm status and named by MFR. Still a code red on the JTWC however. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 21:00, April 20, 2021 (UTC)
- Jobo is currently forecast to make landfall in....Tanzania?, of all places, as a tropical storm next Sunday according to the JTWC forecast. Tanzania hasn't seen any tropical storm landfalls in the satellite era, although Tropical Depression Atang barely made landfall on the southern tip of the country in November 2002. The last storm to hit Tanzania as a tropical storm or stronger was a 110 mph category 2 cyclone that reportedly struck the country back in 1952. Ryan1000 11:19, 21 April 2021 (UTC)
Tropical Cyclone Jobo[]
Huh, did Jobo skipped Severe Tropical Storm status or did it briefly attained that status overnight (in my area)? Well, it's a Tropical Cyclone now per MFR. JTWC also has declared Jobo as a tropical storm. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 14:06, April 21, 2021 (UTC)
Moderate Tropical Storm Jobo (2nd time)[]
Has weakened earlier today. Currently northwest of Madagascar. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 22:15, April 22, 2021 (UTC)
- Still forecast by the JTWC to reach Tanzania, but only as a depression now. It might also dissipate just before making landfall, according to some runs of the GFS on Tidbits. Ryan1000 23:50, 23 April 2021 (UTC)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jobo[]
Seems MFR has issued its last advisory on Jobo and declared it a remnant low. JTWC is still issuing advisories however. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 16:01, April 24, 2021 (UTC)
May[]
90S.INVEST[]
Seems this existed for a few days but has been up on JTWC earlier today. Don't think it'll be much. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 03:26, May 17, 2021 (UTC)
- Gone ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 23:05, May 17, 2021 (UTC)
91S.INVEST[]
Another random SWIO invest up on the JTWC code yellow. I don't think it'll be much considering it's late May. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 18:01, May 20, 2021 (UTC)
- Gone. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 18:00, May 21, 2021 (UTC)
June[]
94S.INVEST[]
This is on Tropical Tidbits in the far northeastern corner of the basin (and near the equator at 6.4S). I highly doubt it will develop though. ~ Steve (Message Me) (My Edits) (📧) 18:15, 25 June 2021 (UTC)
- Gone ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 15:31, June 28, 2021 (UTC)