Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/July

July[]

Looks like the new month is here. With the AOI off the southeast no longer on the TWO, nothing else is expected to form in the next 5 days. We could see a storm or two later in the month, or, like I said earlier, this year could take a page out of 2012 and 2016 and have a silent July after our quick start. Ryan 1000 03:58, July 1, 2020 (UTC)

05L.EDOUARD[]

97L.INVEST[]

This invest has had good convection over the day so the NHC has put it at a 10% chance of formation. Nickcoro (talk) 01:29, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

I truly sense some terrible upcoming several months in the Atlantic. Not only have all of the seasonal forecasts up to now called for an above-average season, but SSTs in the Atlantic are corresponding with patterns observed in active seasons. At this point, we only need three more storms to tie 2005 as the season with the most active pre-August ever. Although this AOI only has a couple of days to develop, I will not be surprised if Emily (2005)'s record as the earliest fifth named storm falls in the next week. On a more positive note, happy Independence Day to all of you in the United States! #9MoreNamestoMarco (already!) Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 03:26, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

I think the next few months are going to be terrible as well. Lots of signs that seem to point toward a potentially catastrophic, hyperactive season. I won't even be that surprised if we end up exhausting the naming list this year or at least reach 1933 levels of activity. The invest is now 40/40 in a special update and becoming notably better organized. This literally popped out of nowhere! I hope this doesn't steal Edouard though... it's going to hit unfavorable conditions by Sunday night. ~ Ste ve 🎆 Happy Independence Day!🇺🇸 04:21, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

ASCAT data is indicating that 97L is closing its LLC. I won't be surprised to see NHC initiate advisories by 09Z. It has 36 hours more to go, possibly 48 hours. JavaHurricane 04:37, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

Wasn't this that AOI that the models showed would develop back in late June a week ago but later took off the TWO? If so, then we should include that part of the June archive here. Anyways, up to 60/60, though it doesn't have much time before it encounters unfavorable conditions, and even if it forms, it probably won't do much. Ryan 1000 14:39, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five[]

Here it is. 35mph and 1009mb. If this becomes the E name, it would be the earliest E named storm ever recorded. Nickcoro (talk) 14:53, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

Wow. What a Suprise.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 15:10, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

NHC forecasted that 5L will become Edouard in the next advisory.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 15:11, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

It's expected to. Beatissima (talk) 02:33, July 5, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like this year has broken the trend of the previous two leap years, since this depression formed in July and the other two years (2012 and 2016) didn't get their fifth storm until August. If this is going to steal Edouard, at least get stronger than the 40 mph peak the NHC shows while tropical. ~ Ste ve 🎆 Happy Independence Day!🇺🇸 15:30, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

Advisory #2: Pressure down a bit to 1007 mbar, winds still the same. ~ Ste ve 🎆 Happy Independence Day!🇺🇸 21:42, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

Advisory #3 upped the pressure to 1008 mbar. Honestly, the chances for Edouard are dwindling so it's getting a bit less likely we'll see it be the earliest 5th named storm on record. But the NHC still refuses to back down from its forecast of it reaching 40 mph before it either opens up into a trough or goes through extratropical transition. Even if the record would be broken if it happens, I would be really pissed off if it stole "Edouard". ~ Ste ve 🎆 Happy Independence Day!🇺🇸 03:15, July 5, 2020 (UTC)

Still not a TS, but pressure is down to 1009 mbar. NHC still takes it to 40 mph right before extratropical transition...I swear to god, if that happens... hopefully it degenerates into a trough later this evening instead of potentially strengthening to steal "Edouard" right before transition, kinda like Olga last year did. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 21:50, July 5, 2020 (UTC)

Didn't notice this existed until now. Interesting. Not sure if I want this to take Edouard or not, just because of the record. Otherwise I'd rather this stay as a depression. YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:55, July 5, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Edouard[]

And the new advisory makes it 40 mph/1008 mbar, with a new forecast peak of 45 mph (hopefully that happens). Name stealer. 🙄 But there is a silver lining to this... we've got the earliest 5th named storm on record, beating Emily from 2005! ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 03:08, July 6, 2020 (UTC)

I'm fine with name-stealing as it increases our chances of getting to the Greeks again. :) Beatissima (talk) 03:22, July 6, 2020 (UTC)

Sigh...why did this have to steal Edouard? Poor thing won't last much longer. Ryan 1000 03:35, July 6, 2020 (UTC)

Hey, its a record-breaker. The thing is, Fay could happen soon and we could have the most active pre-august ever. - Bluecaner (talk 6:00 UTC July 6)

Yeah, 98L has a chance of becoming Fay. If that happened, the previous record will be beaten by almost 2 weeks! (If it develops mid to late-week) I really think this year has true potential to exhaust the naming list and even make it to the Greek letters. Anyways Edouard had intensified to 45 mph/1007 mbar, and extratropical transition is starting. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 15:24, July 6, 2020 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard[]

Post-tropical as of the latest advisory. Goodbye, earliest 5th storm! Now let's see if 98L can become Fay... ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 20:58, July 6, 2020 (UTC)

06L.FAY[]

AOI: Far Northern Gulf of Mexico[]

New AOI. Now at 10/20.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:58, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like I got home from SC just in time. Beatissima (talk) 02:33, July 5, 2020 (UTC)

Likely won't develop until mid to late-week after it emerges off the Carolinas. If TD Five fails to do it (hopefully), maybe this will be the one that breaks the record for earliest 5th named storm. ~ Ste ve 🎆 Happy Independence Day!🇺🇸 03:15, July 5, 2020 (UTC)

Now 30% for 5 days, still 10% for 48 hours. ~ Ste ve 🎆 Happy Independence Day!🇺🇸 06:02, July 5, 2020 (UTC)

This is somewhat less likely to develop, but whether this or five gets Edouard, neither storm will become very strong down the road. Personally I hope neither becomes named, if only because I'd rather not see any more weak little tropical storms. Better not be named, than be an epic fail. Ryan 1000 07:54, July 5, 2020 (UTC)

What's interesting is that this could could affect me here up in New England. - Bluecaner (talk) 21:31, July 5, 2020 (UTC)

98L.INVEST[]

Invested, up to 20/40. Forecast to move directly up the eastern seaboard, so every state from Florida to the states of New England and even Atlantic Canada might be affected by this system. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 21:50, July 5, 2020 (UTC)

Whelp, this really could be the first time I get coned since Jose of 2017. - Bluecaner (talk 21:53, July 5, 2020 (UTC)

I think Dorian brought some impacts to your area as well, although it was a bit offshore. 48 hours down to 10% because it's about to move inland, but 5 days remains 40%. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:04, July 6, 2020 (UTC)

That actually reminds me; "technically" I could've been coned towards Dorian, however, I'm not sure it included where I lived then and it was a brief 3 hours of being in a 5-day away cone, although Since I lived more inland then I don't particularly remember it. However, looking at the models, most of them have it impacting New England, and the last system I can truly remember impacting me was Michael of 2018. I'll have to wait and see, because there's a chance I'm in Connecticut when it arrives - Bluecaner (talk 6:57, July 6, 2020 (UTC)

Makes sense. Anyways it has moved inland, still 10/40. Has some Fay potential, and if it does, it will beat the previous record by almost 2 weeks. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 15:24, July 6, 2020 (UTC)

The models take this paralleling the coastline, or just briefly making landfall near Cape Cod in Massacussets, kinda like Beryl in 2006, before moving into Nova Scotia later. It won't be more than a tropical storm again, though it would be another record-earliest storm. Ryan 1000 18:27, July 6, 2020 (UTC)

Time for another one: "I have Fay-th that this will form" - Bluecaner (talk 1:32, July 7, 2020 (UTC)

Or maybe this will be a weak "Fayl" or "Faylure". ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 03:45, July 7, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 20/40 again.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:04, July 7, 2020 (UTC)

Hopefully this doesn't have any major affects on land. If there anything interesting fayture storm that when it affects me I'll share. - Bluecaner (talk 12:52, July 7, 2020 (UTC)

Now 30/40. We'll see if this becomes a TC when it moves offshore. Lowkey hoping for the earliest 6th named storm on record. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 21:00, July 7, 2020 (UTC)

Up further to 40/50. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 02:51, July 8, 2020 (UTC)

This won't be a fish though, unlike Edouard and Dolly, as it will move into Rhode Island or Massachusetts in a few days, and later Maine or Nova Scotia. If this steals Fay before moving ashore, it would make this the first July tropical storm to hit New England since Beryl in 2006. Ryan 1000 11:19, July 8, 2020 (UTC)

Now at 60/70. Significant impacts in the Northeast from this storm if it becomes a tropical or subtropical cyclone are likely. Nickcoro (talk) 11:48, July 8, 2020 (UTC)

This will probably become Fay in a day or two, and will likely bring heavy rain and low-lying flooding to parts of the northeast including Connecticut, Rhode Island or Massachusetts, and depending on if it turns farther east or not, it could bring further rain anywhere from Vermont and New Hampshire, to Maine or Nova Scotia. While 98L has no chance to become a hurricane because SST's aren't warm enough off the mid-Atlantic or Northeast for it to become that strong (plus it doesn't have a lot of time), even a moderate tropical storm in the northeast can bring notable flooding rains. Ryan 1000 14:00, July 8, 2020 (UTC)

Side note: The best Analogs to CSU for this season is 1966,1995,2003,2008,2011 and 2016.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 15:14, July 8, 2020 (UTC)

Only 2003, 2016, and 2008 (but very barely) had pre-season activity though, none except for 2016 had multiple pre-season storms or record-early activity. Even then, 2016 didn't see anything form in July. For me, better analogies might come along if you think in combos: 1936 or 1933 with the two named May storms of 1887 added in, a combo of 2011 and 2012/2016 (a lot of early activity like 2012 and 2016 but with a large streak of TSs to start off the year like 2011), and if I wanted to fear-monger, the streak of early TSs from 2017 combined with the record earliest (at the time) formations of 2005. Anyway, back to this storm, flooding is a real concern in New England from future-Fay, although it will only be a moderate TS at most. If this becomes named, 2020 will also have the longest streak of TSs to start the year since 2013. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 16:07, July 8, 2020 (UTC)

If you guys want to see more recent updates on climate blogs from the tropics (since Wunderground's final category 6 blog post "Over the Rainbow" was made last month), Dr. Jeff Masters is still posting updates at yaleclimateconnections.org. His latest blog post there shows a decent chance that this could become Fay, but he notes that the maximum winds that this could get would be around 55 mph due to the cooler SST's off the Mid-Atlantic and New England, with the chief threat being heavy rains, and furthermore, if this becomes Fay, it would beat Franklin of 2005 by almost two weeks (which formed on July 22) for being the earliest 6th named storm on record. Also, one of his other recent posts mentions that while 2020 is setting multiple records for earliest tropical storm formations, it still isn't necessarily a harbinger of an active peak season overall because only one of the five storms we've had so far this year (Cristobal) formed in the deep tropics (the BoC is considered that), whille 4 of the first 5 storms in 2005 formed there. Usually, when a season has early-season activity in the deep tropics in June or July, it indicates that there's already favorable conditions there and it's less likely that dry air or wind shear will impede the development of future storms in the season. When compared to, say 2005, which we're already ahead of named storm pace, 2005 had a much larger batch of warm water in the deep tropical Atlantic than this year does now, and the eddie vortex that broke from the loop current that year helped power the two category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico that year (Katrina and Rita). However, in contrast to 2005, this year does have warmer SST's over the NW Caribbean than 2005 did for this time of year, so that area may be one of the ideal areas to look for bad storms later in this season, if they come. Ryan 1000 17:58, July 8, 2020 (UTC)

Most models have Fayture Fay landfalling in the Mid-Atlantic now, however, I suspect the NHC having it heading towards NE and Long Island. Might not be the first NE landfall since Hanna 08 after all, but you never know. ~ Bluecaner (talk 9:35, July 8, 2020 (UTC)

Now 70/70. If it continues organizing at current pace, I expect a PTC designation sometime in the next 12 hours or so. I don't remember the last time I've seen something form and develop so close to the coast (I could argue Julia '16 but that actually moved a bit out to sea after developing), it's basically going to be skirting the East Coast all its life before making landfall in New England. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 22:15, July 8, 2020 (UTC)

Up further to 80/80, will likely be a PTC or even a (sub)tropical cyclone tomorrow. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 03:53, July 9, 2020 (UTC)

I think it forms today ~ Bluecaner (talk 10:59, July 9, 2020 (UTC)

I agree.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:04, July 9, 2020 (UTC)

We'll probably see Fay by 5 PM EDT (2 PM PDT) or if it takes a bit longer, 11 PM EDT (8 PM PDT). BTW, when I wrote "tomorrow", it was still the 8th in my time (PDT). Hurricane Hunters will investigate later today to determine whether Fay has formed. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 15:55, July 9, 2020 (UTC)

90/90. I expect advisories to be initiated in a few hours, or at least by tonight. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:19, July 9, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fay[]

The Fayl is here. " NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located just east of North Carolina, at 5 pm EDT." ~ Bluecaner (talk 8:22, July 9, 2020 (UTC)

ATCF is saying 45mph and 1006mb right now. Nickcoro (talk) 20:33, July 9, 2020 (UTC)

The official NHC advisory shows Fay as 45 mph/1005 mbar (a mbar lower than ATCF). Yep, we've got the earliest 6th named storm ever recorded, beating Franklin from 2005 by 12 days! To surprise you even further, this even beat Emily from that year by a few days. Like, wow, an "F" named storm beating the previous earliest "E" named storm?! 2020 just never ceases to amaze me. We get it Atlantic, you want to reach the Greeks this year. Back to the storm, Fay is forecast to intensify slightly more to 50 mph before likely making landfall near New York City. Tropical storm warnings are up for New Jersey, New York City area, Long Island, and Connecticut. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 21:55, July 9, 2020 (UTC)

Whats interesting (I saw this on models before) is that the east side seems to be a lot worse. I'm not in the cone, but at 2 AM Saturday I could get 45 mph winds. Looks like Connecticut might suffer the brunt of the wind. In case your wondering, right now, I am in the New London Area. This is the strongest TC to affect me since I started tracking. ~ Bluecaner (talk 10:08, July 9, 2020 (UTC)

Wow. What a suprise.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:19, July 9, 2020 (UTC)

I'm not sure if I would call this a Fayl since it could cause some flood damage in New England in a few days, but it probably won't be severe enough to enter the hall of "Fayme" either. :P In any instance, this won't get much stronger before it moves ashore due to its disorganized nature, and the models kinda put the Atlantic to sleep for some time after this, with the current runs of the global models not showing anything else for the next week or so. But the EPac looks like it's finallly waking up, with a vigorous wave currently leaving Central America which will probably get Douglas and a train of more storms forecast to follow. Ryan 1000 04:44, July 10, 2020 (UTC)

Does this season ever stop? Either way, this storm is actually kinda close to me, but I don't think we'll see any effects here, unless we already did in some minor thunderstorms. YellowSkarmory (talk) 09:43, July 10, 2020 (UTC)

Now up to 60mph and 999 millibars. ~ Bluecaner (talk 15:24, July 10, 2020 (UTC)

Fay may not have made landfall yet but most of her strongest northern rainbands and thunderstorm activity is moving over Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York right now, so most of the heavy rain and flooding it might cause there is currently taking place. Later tonight and tomorrow, it will be moving over Connecticut, Massacusetts, Vermont, and New Hampshire. NHC said in one of their recent forecast discussions that peak rainfall totals could be 8 inches in some locales, which could cause some low-lying flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage, but widespread river flooding is not expected. There could also be some minor wind and surge damage on the coastline. Ryan 1000 15:36, July 10, 2020 (UTC)

The center of Fay is now nearing New Jersey and it could make landfall on that state later today before moving through New York City. At least it reached 60 mph (which is a "strong TS" in my view), and plus with the land effects, it's certainly not a "Fayl". And with the lack of development forecast in the next week, it looks like the Atlantic might finally go into a temporary slumber before peak season starts to ramp up. I don't think Gonzalo will form until the late part of this month, maybe even not until August, and I feel like the storm bearing that name might be something formidable. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 16:12, July 10, 2020 (UTC)

Landfall in New Jersey[]

It's making landfall in New Jersey now, down to 50 mph/998 mbar and starting to look a bit less "tropical". Heavy rain and wind will continue to affect areas well away from the center of Fay. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 20:58, July 10, 2020 (UTC)

Down further to 40 mph/1001 mbar as it moves inland, and no longer generating organized deep convection. Also of note, Drumpf's planned New Hampshire rally has been postponed due to this storm. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 03:38, July 11, 2020 (UTC)

Fay's northern thunderstorm convection seems to have weakened in intensity lately, which could lessen the amount of rain she could drop over upstate New York and some of the other northeastern states as Fay continues her northward movement. NHC expects Fay to become post-tropical over New York later today and merge with an approaching front tomorrow. Also, sadly, despite not being very strong at her landfall, 1 person was confirmed to have drowned due to rip currents caused by Fay on Long Island. Hopefully the death toll rises no further. Ryan 1000 05:04, July 11, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fay[]

Down to a depression, won't last much longer. Ryan 1000 05:54, July 11, 2020 (UTC)

Fayding away. Beatissima (talk) 06:49, July 11, 2020 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay[]

Rip Fay. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:25, July 11, 2020 (UTC)

There's actually a bit more rain on the southeast end of the system which is moving up into Maine right now, which could cause some last-second minor flooding before Fay goes away for good. Most of the northern thunderstorm action has significantly died down. Ryan 1000 13:30, July 11, 2020 (UTC)

Sadly, Wikipedia's season effects table states that Fay has already killed 2 people. I hope the death toll doesn't rise any further, and the damage toll won't be too high either. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:03, July 11, 2020 (UTC)

Whats interesting is that the surf and winds seamed rougher today (Saturday) than yesterday, where I am at least. ~ Bluecaner (talk 0:17, July 12, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: East of the Windward Islands[]

Yet another system to look at, but likely wont form. 10% chance of formation. Nickcoro (talk) 00:30, July 6, 2020 (UTC)

I'm sure this isn't going to develop at all, conditions will become too hostile by Tuesday. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 03:08, July 6, 2020 (UTC)

Down to near 0%, might be gone in the next outlook. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 03:45, July 7, 2020 (UTC)

And it's dead. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 15:53, July 7, 2020 (UTC)

08L.HANNA[]

AOI: Moving into the Gulf of Mexico[]

After over a week of a completely dead Atlantic, a new area of interest is up on the NHC's outlook. Currently, it's at 0/20, and conditions might be marginally conducive for development once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:25, July 19, 2020 (UTC)

The Atlantic is too warm for Mid-July.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 09:25, July 19, 2020 (UTC)

Note: Fay total damage is 400 million and 6 people died.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 09:26, July 19, 2020 (UTC)

Probably going to be another gulf coast TS if it forms...conditions aren't ideal (still got the heart of hurricane season to go), but they're enough for potential development. Ryan 1000 10:24, July 19, 2020 (UTC)

Still 0/20.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:58, July 19, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 20/20. Has a slight chance to become something in the Gulf of Mexico, but it will only be a TS at most if it does so. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:17, July 20, 2020 (UTC)

Now 30/30 and located near Cuba and Florida. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:27, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 30/40 now. Nickcoro (talk) 11:54, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

91L.INVEST[]

Invested. Despite the increased organization, the recon flight that was scheduled today for 91L was cancelled. However, one could be scheduled again on this tomorrow. Ryan 1000 18:25, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

Assuming 99L gets Gonzalo, this might be Hanna. If it does become Hanna, the record for earliest "H" storm held by Harvey from 2005 will be toast. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 20:14, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

Chances of formation are now up to 40/50. I'll be getting even more rain from this after the 3 inches I received from the last one. I'm still skeptical, but my inner forecaster is telling me this will be a tropical storm. Chosen Wizard (⛅ NERD) (Inputs) 12:38, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

70/80 now. Here comes something. Beatissima (talk) 18:18, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

Hanna looks like it's about to arrive, and if it does become Hanna, goodbye to Harvey 2005's record. Texas and surrounding regions are going to get a lot of rain from this system. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 22:59, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight[]

Looks like the NHC pulled the trigger without any sort of special message. 30mph and 1009mb. Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Texas. Nickcoro (talk) 02:44, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

I came to the website so early they didn't release their forecast graphics yet. Anyways, its forecast to hit near Corpus Christi, but it'll be close enough to the coast that I may get tropical storm force winds, along with the coming rain. Chosen Wizard (⛅ NERD) (Inputs) 03:03, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Stay safe! Beatissima (talk) 03:10, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Now forecast to be a 45mph TS before landfall. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:56, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Fun fact: if this becomes Hanna before it hits Texas, it would be the 8th named storm to form before August this year, a record for an Atlantic season; the previous record holder, 2005, had 7 pre-August tropical storms. However, 2005 still holds the July TS record, with 5 storms forming in July that year; we'd need to get to Isaias sometime in the next week to beat that, as Hanna would be the 4th TS in the month this year. Also, despite the high named storm count so far, our ACE isn't particularly high for our first 7 (soon to be 8) storms; 2005 had two long-lived majors at this time, which really racked up the ACE record total for that year's July. Ryan 1000 05:02, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

That makes sense, as we haven't had a single hurricane yet in the Atlantic this season, though Gonzalo looks like it will make it to category 1 strength. Also, TD Eight got bumped up to 35 mph, 1007 mb in the latest advisory. Projected peak is at 50 mph. YellowSkarmory (talk) 14:52, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Gonzalo has been looking worse and has weakened a bit though, so I'm no longer as confident that it'll become a hurricane (but it's certainly still not out of the realm of possibility). I expect this to strengthen to Hanna by tomorrow or so. And with a new wave coming off the coast of Africa that the NHC is beginning to monitor, maybe even "Isaias" by the end of the month is not out of the question, as crazy as it sounds. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 20:14, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical storm warning issued for portions of Texas now. Still not Hanna yet though. Nickcoro (talk) 21:42, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

HWRF also being delusional with this one too and forecast that Hanna will reach 90mph !ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:50, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hanna[]

The first ever H named storm in July is here, beating Harvey of 2005 by over a week. 40/1002. Nickcoro (talk) 02:59, July 24, 2020 (UTC) Yay Hanna ! ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:03, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

And, just like that, we've caught up to 2014's named storm total before July has even ended. Send Help Please (talk) 03:18, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

At this rate, getting to Eta and beyond is not out of the question. Beatissima (talk) 04:23, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

Hanna's got a bit of a spin to her convection and might have a chance to crack hurricane intensity before hitting the Texas coast, but thunderstorm activity isn't very thick over the circulation atm. It'll have to have a blowup over the center tomorrow to pull it off sometime tomorrow night or Saturday morning before Hanna moves into Texas. Hopefully flooding rains won't be too bad. Ryan 1000 05:00, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

There was a big blowup of convection overnight, but it seems that it was on the southeast side of the circulation, meaning it's not as well-organized. NHC said in their forecast discussion that some dry air over Texas is the reason for the lack of strong convection over the northwest side. Forecast peak still as a strong TS, 65 mph before landfall. Though Hanna doesn't have a lot of time, 75 mph is a slight possibility if an eyewall forms later today. Ryan 1000 15:27, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

50 mph/999 mbars now. Circulation is still on the northwest side of the convection, but there's been a really big burst of convection over Hanna's southeast side over the past few hours, and Hanna could bring some pretty heavy flooding in parts of Texas if that thunderstorm activity holds on. Ryan 1000 18:02, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

I expect a very heavy rainmaker for Texas. Chosen Wizard (a known user here) is going to be impacted by Hanna, so I hope he stays safe, protects his property, and takes care of himself. With this quick organization, I won't be surprised if it briefly becomes a hurricane before landfall. But if it fails to do so, we will have repeated 2011's record of having the first 8 named storms of the year not become hurricanes. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 19:40, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

Still 50mph, but now expected to be a hurricane at landfall on the Texas coast. Hurricane Warning in effect. Uh oh. Nickcoro (talk) 20:53, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

Its now a 65 mph and 992 millibar storm. Chances of getting to hurricane strength are ever growing. Good news is that I'm expected to get only 2 to 4 inches (nothing compared to Harvey and Imelda). Chosen Wizard (⛅ NERD) (Inputs) 03:30, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

15mph in 6 hours is a lot. I think Hanna's peak is 75-80 mph.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 04:18, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

The thunderstorm expansion of this is almost as, if not bigger than Harvey was, and it's not moving fast either. Obviously Hanna won't get as strong as Harvey before landfall, seeing as how Hanna doesn't have much time left, but she could deliver some serious flooding to Texas if the convection doesn't die down. Ryan 1000 05:09, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Wow. I'm glad this didn't have more time to develop, but it could still bring serious damage. Hope impacts aren't too bad, it looks like it will be the first hurricane of the season though. YellowSkarmory (talk) 07:27, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

70mph now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 09:25, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Hurricane Hanna[]

The first hurricane in the soon to be active is here. Currently, Hanna has winds of 75mph and pressure of 982mBar.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:22, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

8th storm of the year and the first hurricane. Hope this isn't too bad in Texas. Landfall is projected at 80 mph as far as I can tell. YellowSkarmory (talk) 14:17, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like 2011's record for the first 8 named storms not becoming hurricanes stands alone, since Hanna became one. She might crack 80 mph before moving ashore tonight, but man, this thing is still absolutely huge. Flooding rains will be really serious for the folks in south Texas and northern Mexico. Ryan 1000 14:30, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

She already cracked 80 mph as of this latest advisory. Pressure down to 978 mb. YellowSkarmory (talk) 14:52, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Hanna will be moving ashore later this afternoon, but forward speed has slowed from 9 mph to 7 mph, so maybe the HWRF's earlier run suggesting a 90 mph landfall isn't out of the question. But windspeed isn't the main threat, this thing is an absolutely huge hurricane right now, bigger than Harvey and perhaps almost as big as Ike. Couple the large size of Hanna with the slower forward speed, and this could be a very destructive flood event for the people in south Texas. Houston may be a ways away from Hanna but Brownsville and Corpus Christi could get hit very hard with flooding rains. The latest GFS suggests 20-24 inches in south Texas over the next 3 days, and that may be too conservative. Ryan 1000 16:04, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

I have to admit — as wary as I am of Hanna's potential impacts in Texas, I am glad that the first hurricane of the 2020 AHS bears a female name, after the unabashed sexism of last year's season. Winds still 70 kts, pressure down to 977 mbar, NHC notes slight additional strengthening is still possible before landfall. Coincidentally, Hanna '08 (the previous occasion when the name Hanna went to a hurricane) peaked at 75 kts/977 mbar — it would be interesting to see this year's Hanna peak at the exact same intensity. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 17:51, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Update: 75 kts/973 mbar, tying Hanna '08 for winds and surpassing it for pressure. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 18:54, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

I'm glad this thing didn't have another day, I wouldn't be surprised if this reaches 90 mph, cat 2 is probably too improbable to happen though. Still, a lot worse than I expected a couple days ago. YellowSkarmory (talk) 19:02, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Landfall on Padre Island[]

About half an hour ago. Winds ultimately crept up a bit further to 80 kts shortly before landfall. --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 22:30, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Nice going, HWRF. That's the best intensity model for quickly-strengthening hurricanes (but still too aggressive on some of the weaker storms though). Hanna's now down to 75 mph, but the rain threat is still notable. Some of the stronger thunderstorms are thankfully offshore right now, but they'll follow behind Hanna as she moves further inland. Ryan 1000 04:56, July 26, 2020 (UTC)

Hanna really packed a punch, and it's the first hurricane to make landfall in Texas since Harvey. I've seen video from Port Mansfield showing the powerful winds, flooding, and the widespread damage the area has received. I expect damages to be at least near a billion, perhaps as much as the damages from Dolly in 2008. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 05:55, July 26, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hanna (2nd time)[]

And now down to a TS over land, 70 mph/983 mbar. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:07, July 26, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Hanna[]

It has continued to spin down over land, now 35 mph/1002 mbar and over Mexico. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 22:07, July 26, 2020 (UTC)

30/1003 now, I really hope the damages turn out to be relatively minor, this storm was way stronger than expected when it formed. YellowSkarmory (talk) 05:01, July 27, 2020 (UTC)

Post Tropical Cyclone Hanna[]

Hanna's days in 2020 are now numbered, as her circulation died over Mexico. Ryan 1000 19:31, July 27, 2020 (UTC)

Unfortunately, 3 people have been killed by the storm so far. One of them died in Florida due to rip currents, while the other 2 were killed in Mexico due to severe flooding. Damages might have been quite high, I won't be surprised if it exceeds a billion or even $2 billion. I might go so far as to say this might have a small chance of retirement. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 05:42, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

07L.GONZALO[]

AOI: 900 miles from Cabo Verde[]

New AOI. At 10/20 on the TWO.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 06:08, July 20, 2020 (UTC)

This one seems to be the only one that has some model support. So maybe this will become Gonzalo. Now at 20/20 Nickcoro (talk) 11:56, July 20, 2020 (UTC)

99L.INVEST[]

I don't know if this will become much before Friday, when conditions are expected to become less favorable. However, waves like this one are clearing the MDR to make way for potentially devastating hurricanes later on. Also it's been invested, and still 20/20. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:17, July 20, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 40/40. Despite the less favorable conditions coming up, I still have kind of an ominous feeling with this wave. Some of the intensity guidance on Tidbits takes it up to hurricane strength in the long run and setting its sights on the Caribbean and eventually the U.S. I feel like this might be the kind to quickly develop and then weaken in the upcoming conditions (but not enough to dissipate), later re-intensifying when it hits warmer waters and possibly more favorable conditions in the Caribbean. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:27, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

Now at 60/60. Note that if either one of the two current systems form before July 24th. Gonzalo would be the earliest G named storm on record. Nickcoro (talk) 11:54, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

80/80 now. 7L may be forming in a few hours. Nickcoro (talk) 15:34, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

90/90. Probably going to become TD 7 or Gonzalo later tonight or tomorrow. However, the models don't make this very strong as it moves towards the lessers. Some of them, however, do make it a strong major hurricane later on through the Caribbean. Would be unusual to see that, but as Dennis and Emily showed in 2005, it's not unheard of for July. Hopefully that doesn't end up happening. Ryan 1000 18:25, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

Woah, this is organizing quickly - might be a TD at 5 PM EDT, or if not, 11 PM EDT at the latest. This still has until early on July 24 to beat Gert from 2005's record as the earliest "G" named storm on record. Again, I have an ominous feeling about this storm... if the less favorable conditions coming by the weekend are not enough to dissipate it (much more likely to happen if it pulls off a Danny '15 or Ivan '04 type intensification to a hurricane this week), then it could intensify to a major hurricane and set its sights for the U.S. Despite it only being late July, this could be the next Ivan for all we know, as 2005 has shown that it's possible. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 20:14, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven[]

Here it is. 35/1009. Nickcoro (talk) 20:38, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

This might put its guns-all-o(ver) the Caribbean. Doing it for every storm now. ~ Bluecaner (talk 20:34, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

Let's hope this system become a weak hurricane not a crazy major one. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:16, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

Here comes the earliest "G" named storm ever! The initial forecast shows a peak as a 65 mph TS on Friday, and then weakening to 50 mph at the end of the forecast period. However, this forecast is of low confidence and is a blend of models. According to the discussion, the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models forecast it to degenerate or die out by 120 hours, while SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF model forecast a hurricane by 120 hours, defying the shear and dry air. The future of this is really uncertain and it could either be a typical MDR tropical storm or weak hurricane that will not be remembered by the general populace, or it could be the year's first real retirement candidate if it survives and becomes powerful in the Caribbean. I fear it could be the latter; a potential future scenario for this storm could involve a quick intensification to a hurricane or even a C2 in the MDR by Friday, weakening back to a TS over the weekend as the shear and dry air affect it, and then re-intensification to a major once it enters the western Caribbean. In fact, I've had an ominous feeling about the name "Gonzalo" for a while. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 00:52, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

Plus this system is small in size so it is easier to intensify like Beryl 2018.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 02:19, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

Since TD 7 is such a tiny storm, even a small intrusion of dry air or wind shear could kill it outright, as the global models show in the eastern Caribbean soon enough. HWRF is typically on the more aggressive side of things, but that's the most reliable model when it comes to forecasting big, bad storms; it was the best intensity model in 2017 and was good at forecasting the intensity of some other strong storms in the past few years like Florence, Dorian, and Lorenzo, but it underperformed Michael (which model didn't though). Back to this storm, the runs on Tidbits no longer go up to cat 4 like some of them did earlier today and only 1 or 2 of the current runs of the models make this a cat 3, but there is some confidence on this becoming a cat 1 or 2 if it pulls something akin to Beryl two years ago or Danny of 2015, before the currently hostile eastern Caribbean weakens this storm. Ryan 1000 04:43, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

Windspeed still the same, but the pressure is down to 1008 mbar. The small size might cause rapid intensification to a hurricane by Friday, but thankfully it doesn't seem like as much of a threat as I thought (unless it pulls a Harvey by regenerating later on after dying in the eastern Caribbean). ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:15, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

I have the feeling that this storm will either incredibly succeed or fail in some way. No in-between.

Also the pressure just dropped again to 1007 millibars. Chosen Wizard (⛅ NERD) (Inputs) 12:36, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gonzalo[]

8:50 AM update statement says this is now TS Gonzalo. 45 mph/1003 mbars. Gonzalo still isn't forecast to be a hurricane, though the late forecast period track arcs Gonzalo further northwest through the Caribbean, and with the NW Caribbean being fairly warm and favorable right now (warmer than at this time in 2005, even), this might cause trouble if it survives the eastern Caribbean...hopefully not too much though... Ryan 1000 13:13, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

This is the earliest G named storm on record.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:20, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

Now forecast to be an 80mph hurricane. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 15:19, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

This storm is straight up beginning to concern me... it's already up to 50 mph/1000 mbar, and its small size could mean at least a repeat of Danny (2015), becoming a significant hurricane in the MDR. But I also get the Ivan vibes - that storm intensified all the way to a C4 in the MDR before weakening to a C1 in almost a similar area, later re-intensifying to become the infamous C5 we know today. While I have doubts that Gonzalo could become a major before weakening as it enters the eastern Caribbean, it's not out of the question due to its small size. If it does become that strong, that might mean it will be more likely to survive the eastern Caribbean and make it to the western Caribbean and the GOM, where a warm bathtub is awaiting a significant hurricane to take advantage of. The scary scenario I posted about above might actually come true - calling for a hurricane or C2 (maybe even a major but less likely) before the weekend, weakening to a TS in the hostile environment of the eastern Caribbean (maybe even a TD), and later re-intensifying when it hits the western Caribbean, potentially setting its sights on the U.S. as a major hurricane. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 16:19, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

The U.S. does not need a major hurricane right now, or ever. Anyway, I think Gonzalo will get to AT LEAST 90 mph, if not 100, as its peak before it weakens. Then we'll see what happens afterwards. I am certain this WILL be a hurricane of some sort when it reaches us, if it does. Chosen Wizard (⛅ NERD) (Inputs) 16:28, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

The NHC said in their latest forecast discussion that their intensity forecast is of very low confidence for Gonzalo because of its small size, it could go up very fast or only modestly to category 1, maybe weak 2. While they do indicate a possibility of rapid strengthening, I'm not sold on a cat 4 from this before it reaches the antilles. Moreover, if you check the current shear map of the Atlantic, it's a fairly hefty 30 knots in the southeastern Caribbean right now, and like I said before, considering Gonzalo's small size, even a small dose of that strong shear could considerably weaken him or kill him outright, like it did to Danny of 2015 and Beryl two years ago. However, if Gonzalo can somehow make it through that 30 knots of shear in the eastern Caribbean, then this could be a very serious threat in the northwestern Caribbean, because not only are SST's warmer there than they were in 2005 as Dr. Masters stated in one of his blog posts on YCC, but shear is low right now too (except over Cuba and Florida), but if Gonzalo can stay farther south and head towards the Yucatan/Belize area, this could be a bad storm for them if he survives the eastern Caribbean shear. Ryan 1000 16:58, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

1200 UTC on tidbits says Gonzalo has weakened to 45 mph, but no confirmation from NHC yet. Ryan 1000 18:30, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 50mph again now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:53, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

Currently the NHC still says that Gonzalo is 50 mph/1000 mbar, so it appears this "weakening" didn't materialize. I still expect significant strengthening to occur by Friday, likely to a hurricane, and possibly even C2 status. Beyond the weekend is still a mystery, but let's hope the shear keeps it from being a threat in the long run. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 22:59, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 60/998. Hurricane Watch now in effect in Barbados as Gonzalo becomes a more imminent threat. Nickcoro (talk) 02:41, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Wind speed has Gonzahigher, and pressure has Gonzalower. Beatissima (talk) 03:06, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

HWRF now forecast that Gonzalo will become a C3 with pressure of 964mBar and winds of 115mph.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 04:03, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

NHC expects the aforementioned eastern Caribbean shear to be quite considerable, enough to weaken Gonzalo to a minimal 45 mph TS in the late forecast period. But, the late forecast period is subject to change a lot, depending on how much the shear weakens Gonzalo. Ryan 1000 05:02, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

65mph now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 09:34, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Gonzalo's convection has been waning significantly in recent hours; it's no longer over the center of the storm and he isn't well-organized either. Unless Gonzalo organizes considerably in the next day or so, he won't be a hurricane, and the ECarib shear will rip him to shreds in a few days. Ryan 1000 13:53, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

NHC now places the peak at 80 mph. Gonzalo remains at 65 mph though, pressure is at 997 mb. We'll see how this comes along. YellowSkarmory (talk) 14:56, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Ehh...I'm not so sure on this being a hurricane now, unless Gonzalo organizes considerably tonight, then it won't happen. Looking at the latest satellite imagery, Gonzalo looks more like a messy 45 mph TS than a 65 mph TS poised to be a hurricane. Ryan 1000 16:15, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Advisory 8A says that Gonzalo is now 60 mph/1000 mbar. I'm losing confidence in Gonzalo becoming a hurricane. However, the Windwards will still need to prepare for impacts and monitor the system closely as anything can happen to small systems like these. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 20:14, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

HWRF is the weirdest one so far and think that Gonzalo will re-organize and intensify to C3.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:49, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Well, like I said before, HWRF is usually more aggressive on intensity forecasting, which is unreliable when the storm is weak, but if the storm is a big threat to land, like some strong U.S. hurricanes in the past few years like Harvey, Irma, Florence, ect, then it's trustworthy. But with the way Gonzalo slowed down today, it might fall just short of hurricane intensity unless the convection begins spinning very soon, because shear in the southeastern Caribbean is still a razor-sharp 25-30 knots, which Gonzalo will not enjoy in the slightest. Ryan 1000 04:56, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

ATCF says the storm is now weakening. Hurricane is just about impossible now. Nickcoro (talk) 14:03, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

Yeah, Gonzalo won't be a hurricane by now, this thing had some promise to pull a Beryl or Danny a few days ago, but it entrained a little dry air into its circulation and slipped up. Gonzalo still doesn't have the spin he needs to become a hurricane, and with the southeastern Caribbean still raging with strong wind shear, it looks like Gonzalo's days in 2020 are all but numbered. The current track doesn't go past 3 days, and kills him within 4, maybe sooner depending on how fast he hits the shear. Ryan 1000 14:41, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 45 mph, no longer forecast to be a hurricane. Ryan 1000 18:02, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

Well this is a dud. (Not like I wanted it to become strong anyways) The Windwards will still receive impacts though, but impacts will be very localized due to its small size. Along with the 45 mph winds, it's also 1008 mbar. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 19:40, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 40 mph/1009 mbars. Forecast to pass through the southern antilles tonight, before the shear kills him for good tomorrow. Ryan 1000 05:20, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

This thing did not live up to expectations, which is good because that will mean impacts won't be as bad likely. Surprised though, we still haven't had a hurricane, will Hanna be the first one? We'll have to see. YellowSkarmory (talk) 07:13, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Gonzalo[]

Here comes the shear...35 mph/1010 mbars. Should die out tonight or tomorrow morning. Ryan 1000 18:18, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Remnants of Gonzalo[]

And that's a wrap. Thank you for showing mercy to the Antilles this year, Gonzalo, and I wish you better luck in the strength department in 2026 (as long as you stay nice). Send Help Please (talk) 20:43, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

And now it's Gone-zalo. Beatissima (talk) 20:45, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

RIP Gonzalo. Hanna (Barbera) stole his thunder TheMasterBait96 (talk) 23:43, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

I'm happy that this was a dud, didn't do much to the Antilles, and died way before reaching the more favorable environment in the western Caribbean and GOM. At least the "scenario" I posted a few days ago when it was more threatening didn't materialize. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 05:55, July 26, 2020 (UTC)

90L.INVEST[]

AOI: Northwestern Gulf of Mexico[]

This one has popped up to, at 10%. I believe that even 10% is probably way too high for this system.

( I think Nickcoro (talk) 11:23, July 21, 2020 (UTC) (I) signed it. Must've forgotten to put the signature.)

90L.INVEST[]

Whoever posted, you forgot to sign. Anyway this is now invested and 20/20. I don't expect much at all, unless it pulls an Imelda (but please no repeat of its record-breaking rainfall). ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:17, July 20, 2020 (UTC)

Actually this has moved inland and is now near 0%. Although development won't occur, Texas will get some rain from this. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:27, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

It's dead now, with some rainfall continuing over Texas. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 20:14, July 21, 2020 (UTC)

09L.ISAIAS[]

See the archive on Isaias.

10L.NONAME[]

AOI: Near Cape Verde[]

A tropical wave is up on the TWO at 10/10. However, environmental conditions aren't favorable for development after 2 days. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 05:55, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

93L.INVEST[]

This is actually invested, and is now at 20/20, but still isn't expcted to become much due to unfavorable conditions in a few days. Ryan 1000 14:20, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 50/50 now. 10 storms before August anyone? Nickcoro (talk) 17:42, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

If that happens, I swear...2005's Jose didn't come until August 22, to put that in perspective. Ryan 1000 18:33, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

At this rate, 2020 is going to be remembered as the year where almost every random AOI that nobody has any faith in at first proceeds to develop into a named storm. Send Help Please (talk) 18:49, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Down slightly to 40/40. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 00:20, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

I didn't expect such a rise in percentage. I doubt this will be anything more than a TD and will likely bust. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:27, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Down further to 20/20. Maybe the one east of the Lessers would be the one that will become Josephine. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:59, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Back up to 50/50, and the NHC states that only a small increase in organization could turn this into a depression. Send Help Please (talk) 19:16, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

10 depressions before August if advisories are initiated very soon... 😮 It would truly surprise me if it became Josephine though. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 19:49, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten[]

"NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located about 200 miles west of the coast of Africa at 8pm CVT (2100 UTC)." welp Send Help Please (talk) 20:48, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

The atlantic has offically lost its mind. Forecast to become a TS, beating the record by over 20 days. Currently at 35/1007. Nickcoro (talk) 21:27, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

2 questions in my mind here, #1 is this going to become a tropical storm and break that record, #2 is it going to become a tropical storm at this next advisory and be the 10th named storm before August. Whatever this storm becomes, it won't be much, if Ten doesn't become a tropical storm in this next advisory I'll probably just hope it stays as a TD, it's not going to do much of anything either way though. YellowSkarmory (talk) 22:59, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

I am not that optimistic that this will become Josephine by the next advisory – not to mention that it is almost August 1 in Cape Verde now, just literally minutes away – but I am shocked as to how quickly this developed into a TD after the NHC lowered this to 20/20. Or maybe that's the pun... it's 2020 after all: anything could happen. Whatever happens to this system, it is already a record-breaker. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 23:14, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Wow. The Atlantic is insane this yearʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:17, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Damn... this really exploded into a TD. But it's not stealing Josephine anymore unless it does another miracle intensification overnight. The discussion also mentioned the possibility this had TS force winds very briefly earlier. Imagine this got upgraded to a TS in post-analysis... ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:28, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Even if it doesn't become Josephine (or an unnamed TS in reanalysis), this is the earliest 10th tropical depression of any AHS, beating TD 10 of 2005 by two weeks. Ryan 1000 15:41, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 30 mph, probably going to degenerate to a remnant low soon. YellowSkarmory (talk) 19:28, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression Ten[]

And it's gone. Beatissima (talk) 03:14, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

RIP.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:18, August 2, 2020 (UTC)