Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/June

June[]

If you did not see it above, happy hurricane season! As we start the first month of the 2020 season, please put any new AOIs in this section. On a side note, does anyone think that we will see four named storms by the end of June like we did in 2012 and 2016? Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:34, June 1, 2020 (UTC)

03L.CRISTOBAL[]

AOI: Remnants of Amanda[]

Huh, did the Atlantic miss the memo that this is May not August ?ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:14, May 31, 2020 (UTC)

Anyways, NHC gives this 0/20.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:14, May 31, 2020 (UTC)

I think this will interact or even merge with the remnants of TD Two-E in the EPac considering their proximity. This could be the one that becomes Cristobal, but it will be in June. Might beat Colin's record though. It seems like the trend for every leap year recently is for excessive pre and early-season formation, imagine if this trend continued in 2024, 2028, and beyond... lol. ~ Steve 🙏🏻 Praying for the world to recover from coronavirus.📧 03:08, May 31, 2020 (UTC)

I can not recall the last time the NHC wrote TWOs for four systems prior to June 1! That being said, this early activity may not be that reflective of the season ahead. Based on the latest NHC TWO, it appears that this AOI will be rather gradual in organizing but bring some precipitation to Mexico. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 04:12, May 31, 2020 (UTC)

No longer forecasted to form.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 06:19, May 31, 2020 (UTC)

Now NHC forecasted that 02E cross basin, moving to the bay of campeche and absorb the AoI mentioned above.NHC gives this 10/30ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 06:22, May 31, 2020 (UTC)

HWRF model so far thinks that after the cross over, this system will get the name "cristobal" and intenstify to a C3 !ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 08:01, May 31, 2020 (UTC)

40/50.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:14, May 31, 2020 (UTC)

If Cristobal comes from this, it would most likely beat Colin's record... Wow. ~ Steve 🙏🏻 Praying for the world to recover from coronavirus.📧 16:17, May 31, 2020 (UTC)

We don't need two separate heading 3's for this. Most models expect this to become Cristobal in the BOC, but the track after that gets tricky. Some expect it to curve back south over Mexico, but if it doesn't emerge over water before turning south, it might not get Cristobal until later. After it turns south it might move more into Mexico, turn north and eventually towards Louisiana, or something else. The track gets kinda tricky to forecast later on. Ryan 1000 18:24, May 31, 2020 (UTC)

Imagine if this becomes an Erratic storm. ~ Bluecaner (talk)18:27, May 31, 2020(UTC)

The NHC noted that it is likely that Amanda's original circulation will not survive the passage over Mexico and Central America. Consequently, they would treat this AOI as a separate system in this scenario. Assuming that this system becomes tropical and stalls in the Bay of Campeche, we could see something like Allison from 1989 (or even 2001). Like this AOI, Allison '89 developed from the remnants of an EPAC system and caused notable impacts by slowly moving in the Gulf of Mexico (albeit further north than this system). Regardless, chances of formation are now 50% for the next 48 hours and 60% for the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:31, June 1, 2020 (UTC)

60/70 now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:36, June 1, 2020 (UTC)

80/80 now. It looks like TD Three will form from this. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:09, June 1, 2020 (UTC)

93L.INVEST[]

It's now 93L, and will probably become a storm fairly soon, also if this becomes Cristobal sometime in the next 3 days, it would beat Colin of 2016 for the earliest 3rd storm on record, which formed on June 5th. Also, I've put this in the June section now, since if it forms, it would be a June storm. Ryan 1000 12:43, June 1, 2020 (UTC)

Now up to 90/90, this would likely become Cristobal sooner or later. I wouldn’t rule out a June hurricane just yet. Sandy 156 :) 18:50, June 1, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three[]

"NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 5 pm EDT." Here we go boys, TD Three is here. Sandy 156 :) 20:16, June 1, 2020 (UTC)

Colin, your days are numbered. Here's hoping that this one stays out to sea. Send Help Please (talk) 20:18, June 1, 2020 (UTC)

Doubt it'll stay out to sea really. Models indicate a close approach to the coast line of the Gulf. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 20:21, June 01, 2020 (UTC)

And now Amanda is a mama. Beatissima (talk) 21:31, June 1, 2020 (UTC)

It has an erratic track that slightly reminds me of 1995's Roxanne... Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 00:01, June 2, 2020 (UTC)

Anonymous 2.0, in addition to Roxanne, I also mentioned above that Tropical Depression Three's motion could resemble Allison from 1989, albeit further south. As for this depression, it currently has winds of 25 knots (30 mph), with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa). Moreover, tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of the Mexican coastline. Judging from the NHC discussion, the main concern with Tropical Depression Three will be its potential track. It appears that A.) the system will make landfall over Mexico, or B.) head north towards the United States. If the latter scenario happens, the depression will encounter wind shear. Regardless, precipitation will be a major hazard. On a side note, I want to state that the current NHC forecast peak winds of 50 knots (60 mph) for Tropical Depression Three seems a little too high. Given the uncertainty in motion, I will be surprised if winds exceed 40 knots (45 mph) for now. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 04:27, June 2, 2020 (UTC)

Didn't really expect a TD to form so soon, this is going to beat Colin's record. 😮 The track really is erratic, and there is high potential for very devastating flooding. This could even briefly make landfall in Mexico before rocketing back to the north, but it's too soon to know how impacting it might be in the U.S. Also according to the NHC, it has intensified a bit to 35 mph/1003 mbar. ~ Steve 🙏🏻 Praying for the world to recover from coronavirus.📧 05:47, June 2, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Cristobal[]

Reconnaissance aircraft have found that this storm now is a tropical storm. Winds of 40mph and a pressure of 1004mb. Nickcoro (talk) 16:43, June 2, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like Colin's record stood for only 4 years before Cristobal beat him. We've got almost 3 more weeks to beat Danielle of 2016, which became a TS on June 20, for the earliest 4th storm record. Current forecast brings Cristobal to the upper gulf coast as a 65 mph TS, and as Andrew mentioned, there is some shear in the upper gulf which may keep Cristobal from becoming a hurricane, but rainfall and flooding will still be a threat. Ryan 1000 17:07, June 2, 2020 (UTC)

The storm now has winds of 45 mph with a 997 mbar pressure. It is predicted to make landfall on Mexico tomorrow night with 50 mph winds. It is expected to bring 10 to 25 inches of rain to several Central American countries. This spells trouble. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 00:22, June 3, 2020 (UTC)

Now at 50 mph, 996 mb. Beatissima (talk) 02:55, June 3, 2020 (UTC)

And Cristobal has arrived (stronger than I expected)! We are now over two and a half months ahead of 2014's pace, and I will not be surprised if Tropical Storm Danielle of 2016 loses its record as the earliest 4th named storm as well. Already, 20 inches of rain have fallen in parts of Central America per the NHC, and these values could near 35 inches! Moreover, the NHC is forecasting Cristobal to attain winds of 50 knots (60 mph) before stalling over southern Mexico for a day or so. Even if the storm dissipates over land and/or does not make it to the United States because of the shear farther north in the Gulf of Mexico, there certainly will be some memorable devastation. #10MoreNamestoMarco Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 04:58, June 3, 2020 (UTC)

I really hope Cristobal's flood damage doesn't rival that of Stan's in 2005, this is looking bad for Mexico and Central America...still not forecast to be a hurricane when he hits the upper gulf later on though, not only due to shear in the northern Gulf but Cristobal's circulation will be quite heavily interrupted over land, and this might weaken to a depression soon. The flood threat is still very serious though. Ryan 1000 05:22, June 3, 2020 (UTC)

Now a 60 mph and 994 mbar storm, and it's about to make landfall. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 11:54, June 3, 2020 (UTC)

It has made landfall in Campeche. Only time will tell what happens next with this storm. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 17:20, June 3, 2020 (UTC)

It has weakened to 50 mph/996 mbar due to land interaction. It's not too certain whether it will survive or not, but if it does, it's going to strengthen to a strong TS according to the NHC before it hits Louisiana. If it loses its circulation over Mexico, it seems to be likely to regenerate over the GOM before Louisiana landfall. But shear in the GOM should hopefully prevent this from becoming a hurricane. God forbid this pulls a Stan over Mexico, if it does, #2020isoverparty. Too much bad news and destruction, I just want this year to end already. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:34, June 3, 2020 (UTC)

A nightmare could be beginning to unfold. Cristobal has become stationary over Mexico and is bringing in moisture from the Pacific over Central America. Although the storm should start moving again within the next day, it is already causing devastating impacts in Mexico. Also, winds are down to 40 knots (45 mph), with a pressure of 995 mbar (hPa). Although the NHC is forecasting Cristobal to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico, I still will not be surprised if the storm simply dissipates over land. In addition, the NHC has lowered Cristobal's peak winds in the Gulf of Mexico to 50 knots (60 mph). It is an understatement to say that the world is in unprecedented times. Even if the Atlantic miraculously does not see any more named storms for the rest of the year, there will be something to remember about this season (two May storms and the earliest 3rd named storm on record). Hopefully, the countries around the Atlantic will not be too economically strained before the end of November! Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 04:52, June 4, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Cristobal[]

Down to a depression, forecast to become a tropical storm again in a few days once he re-emerges over the gulf. Ryan 1000 15:38, June 4, 2020 (UTC)

Currently 35 mph/999 mbar. NHC still shows it surviving intact into the GOM, but I won't be surprised if it loses its circulation over land. Still forecast to reach 50 knots (60 mph) before Louisiana landfall. Extreme life-threatening rainfall continues over that region of Mexico which might see a lot of deaths and damage, but hopefully nothing Stan-like. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 22:10, June 4, 2020 (UTC)

Cristobal is now at 35 mph and 1000 mbars. It is still expected to reach 60 mph again before landfall. You know, this year so far kinda reminds me of 2016 (my first year on these forums), where I sorta got overhyped at that year's early activity. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 14:56, June 5, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Cristobal (2nd time)[]

Its back to being a TS, 40/1000. Bruh wut? ~ Bluecaner (talk) 17:56, June 5th, 2020 (UTC)

Well, Cristobal did not dissipate over land! As it begins to move towards the United States, tropical storm and storm surge watches are in effect for portions of the Gulf Coast, and new tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Yucatán Peninsula. On a side note, because of Cristobal's organization, most impacts are going to occur to the east of the storm's center. For example, 6 to 10 inches of rain are forecast to fall around New Orleans. Also, a fatality from this storm has been reported in Chiapas (Mexico). Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 19:22, June 5, 2020 (UTC)

It seems Cristobal is back over water. Still projected to landfall at 60 MPH. YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:16, June 5, 2020 (UTC)

Wow, what a suprise. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:32, June 5, 2020 (UTC)

Pressure down to 998 in the intermediate advisory. YellowSkarmory (talk) 00:00, June 6, 2020 (UTC)

And now the winds are up to 45 mph in the newest advisory.

Up to 50mph now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:51, June 6, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 994 millibars now. ~ Bluecaner (talk) 17:22, June 6th, 2020 (UTC)

Cristobal is a fighter for surviving Mexico, for real. It's now 50 mph/993 mbar as of Advisory 21A. Tropical storm warnings up for most of the Louisiana coastline, Mississippi, Alabama, and a bit of Florida's coastline. Even though the NHC still classifies it as a TC, they mention in the discussion that the appearance and structure resemble a subtropical cyclone. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 01:01, June 7, 2020 (UTC)

Indeed! Cristobal is quite large and disorganized on satellite imagery, and most of the thunderstorm activity is displaced miles from the center. This is probably why wind and rain impacts are expected as far away as Florida despite a forecasted landfall in Louisiana. Moreover, the latest Hurricane Hunters and buoy data support maintaining an intensity of 45 knots (50 mph)/993 mbar (hPa) as of this post. As Cristobal nears the U.S. Gulf Coast, conditions should begin to deteriorate shortly over land, and the overall environment will likely prevent any significant intensification (Cristobal's winds will probably not exceed 50 knots (60 mph)). On a more trivial note, the NHC is predicting that Cristobal's remnants will reach Wisconsin. As someone from the Great Lakes region, it is very rare for me to experience any tropical impacts. Indeed, I can not recall the last time the NHC explicitly forecast a system to pass over my state. Although only one to two inches of precipitation are predicted to fall in Wisconsin, Cristobal will still be quite an unusual event! Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 04:28, June 7, 2020 (UTC)

Landfall looks like it will happen within the next hour or so. Leeboy100 ^Hello! 21:03, June 7, 2020 (UTC)

Landfall near Grand Isle[]

With 50 mph winds and 992 mb pressure, Cristobal has made landfall just east of Grand Isle, Louisiana. Effects do remain more on the east side of the storm, with impacts all the way in Florida still happening. YellowSkarmory (talk) 22:33, June 7, 2020 (UTC)

Let's hope the impacts to that area are not so bad, although river flooding, flash flooding, and other kinds of dangers are present. As it moves further inland, it will impact the place that I'm moving to this summer (Ozarks region in Missouri; if you haven't heard already, I made a blog post). Pretty amazing that the forecast is taking it all the way out to Wisconsin as a TD, which is quite rare. Andrew will enjoy this lol. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 03:06, June 8, 2020 (UTC)

Yes, Steve, I am certainly looking forward to what may be the first system to pass over Wisconsin as a tropical cyclone (assuming that the NHC forecast holds)! As for Cristobal, it has started to weaken as it moves over southern Louisiana. Winds are down to 40 knots (45 mph), with a pressure of 993 mbar (hPa). Nevertheless, according to the latest NHC advisory, gale-force winds are being measured as far away as Alabama. Although it seems that storm surge and tornado impacts will stay confined to the coastal areas (e.g. southern Mississippi), precipitation impacts will be observed quite far inland. In Wisconsin, while only four inches of rain at most are expected to fall, I assume that there is going to be some flooding (and hype) from Cristobal in my area. On a side note, three fatalities have been reported from this storm. Also, per Phil Klotzbach, Cristobal made landfall in Louisiana earlier than any other tropical storm on record except Arlene of 1959. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 04:04, June 8, 2020 (UTC)

Sadly, Cristobal has killed at least 3 people so far, and damage may be as high as 185 million in the Yucatan alone due to agricultural losses, and there wil likely be more in the U.S, hopefully not too much though. Ryan 1000 21:17, June 8, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Cristobal (2nd time)[]

Down to Tropical Depression now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 10:19, June 8, 2020 (UTC)

Cristobal is continuing to track further inland and is now over southern Arkansas. The intensity has been lowered to 30 knots (35 mph)/994 mbar (hPa), but restrengthening may occur as it becomes extratropical. Where I am in Wisconsin, there is sunny weather and very warm temperatures. However, as Cristobal nears, I expect this to change. Also, as Ryan mentioned above, there have been quite some impacts from this storm already. Some areas in Mexico have seen a year's worth of rainfall in several days, and total damages are now around $186 million (2020 USD). In addition, Grand Isle, Louisiana has seen its highest storm surge since Isaac in 2012. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 23:12, June 8, 2020 (UTC)

This storm lasted a long time for so early in the year! Most June storms barely eclipse 3 or 4 days, but this one has already lasted a week! TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:52, June 9, 2020 (UTC)

Cristobal is only expected to last 12 more hours before it becomes a remnant low. Once it becomes extratropical, it will regain tropical storm strength. This forecast is from the WPC. Chosen Wizard (Weather nerd) (Contributions) 12:41, June 9, 2020 (UTC)

I think it is an understatement that I am very excited to experience Cristobal personally. Right now, the system is located near Davenport, Iowa, and it is beginning to close in on Wisconsin. Winds are down to 25 knots (30 mph), but the pressure has risen to 992 mbar (hPa). Moreover, where I am located in Wisconsin (near Madison), clouds from Cristobal have already arrived. Winds in my city are currently around 20 knots (20 mph), and rainfall began approximately an hour ago. Fortunately, my region is not under any weather warnings, and I do not anticipate any flooding. However, more intense thunderstorms should come as Cristobal nears. Moreover, as IbAHAn mentioned, Cristobal is expected to re-intensify over land due to baroclinic forcing. This will certainly be a gusty night for Wisconsin. Indeed, in anticipation for potential damages, I have seen plenty of utility workers stationed near telephone lines around Madison.

CristobaI_(Front_of_home) — CristobaI (Front of home)

Cristobal_(Back_of_home) — Cristobal (Back of home)

Also, I have attached two photos that show the current state of the atmosphere around my residence (as of 4:00 PM CDT/21:00 UTC). The top photo was taken in front of my residence, and the bottom from behind. In addition, I am linking a couple of videos that I have filmed of Cristobal below. You will be able to hear the wind in both clips:

Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 22:06, June 9, 2020 (UTC)

Cristobal_(23_30_UTC) — Cristobal (23 30 UTC)

I am back with another video! Because sunset is fast approaching in my locality, this will be the last clip I provide. In the past couple of hours, rainfall has been on and off. That being said, it has fallen quite intensely at times (as you can hear). Because the majority of Cristobal's rainbands are now to the north of me (per the Madison radar), I doubt I will receive any more memorable impacts. In addition, I can barely believe that this storm will likely have completely dissipated in about 48 hours. However, given its fast motion since the last advisory, I think it is safe to assume that for the first time in history, a tropical cyclone has passed over the Badger State (Wisconsin). On a side note, the fatality count from Cristobal has risen to 4 (due to two children drowning in Louisiana from rip currents). Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 00:37, June 10, 2020 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristobal[]

When I first started following Tropical Storm Amanda in the EPAC a few weeks ago, I had no idea it would come down to this. From one of the costliest El Salvador tropical cyclones on record to indirectly spawning the earliest Atlantic third named storm to stalling over Mexico to being the second-earliest landfalling storm in Louisiana to being the first tropical cyclone to pass over Wisconsin, this will be a progression to remember. Just like how Cristóbal Colón went where no European had gone before, Cristóbal the tropical storm ventured into uncharted territory. And we are still not done yet! There are plenty of weather warnings, namely gale warnings, in effect throughout the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Moreover, ex-Cristobal could become the first post-tropical cyclone to make landfall on the Lake Superior coast before dissipating. The cyclone's current intensity is 30 knots (35 mph)/986 mbar (hPa), with the pressure being lower than any value while tropical. (P.S. Given that ex-Cristobal is only about 60 miles from Madison, it is audibly windy around my residence.) Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 03:35, June 10, 2020 (UTC)

I got some pretty heavy thunderstorms where I live in Michigan today, but it looks like Cristobal is going to be out of the U.S. soon enough, with sunny skies forecast again by tomorrow where I live. Ryan 1000 04:00, June 10, 2020 (UTC)

Finally dissipating after all these years. Hats off to you, Cristobal. (At least it didn't do as much damage (so far) as Amanda) Chosen Wizard (Weather nerd) (Contributions) 12:18, June 10, 2020 (UTC)

Ex-Cristobal is no longer being tracked by the WPC. I assume that the system is over Canada right now. Also, I did receive from additional precipitation today that was potentially from the rear side of ex-Cristobal. On a more trivial note, I would like to note how none of the first three named storms in the Atlantic this year have become hurricanes. The opposite was true when this naming list was last used in 2014. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 01:53, June 11, 2020 (UTC)

According to Wikipedia, this system has already dealt quite a bit of damage. $186.84 million in losses has been reported, and 4 unfortunate deaths. P.S. Those are some nice videos and pictures :) ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:03, June 11, 2020 (UTC)

Thank you! I thought that some users here would be interested in a close-hand account of Cristobal. Anyways, the total losses from this system have reached $343 million (2020 USD). Although this is still far from guaranteeing Cristobal's retirement, it illustrates how impactful this storm was for various regions. In addition, Cristobal has become Minnesota's wettest tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:10, June 14, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: Near Bermuda[]

AoI no.5 before August. 0/20 now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:48, June 6, 2020 (UTC)

Don't think this will form. ~ Bluecaner (talk) 17:22, June 6th, 2020 (UTC)

Well, you never know. Surprises have happened (for example Bertha's formation and some other formations in the past few years). Although I don't think this will become much, 2020 would beat 2016's record for the earliest fourth named storm if this steals a name in the next week. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 01:05, June 7, 2020 (UTC)

If anything, this AOI's development should be gradual. It would be fun to see Danielle's record be broken (and we have 13 days to do this), but that may not happen from this system. Chances of formation remain near 0% for the next 48 hours and 20% for the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 04:31, June 7, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 0/10. Probably no development from this system.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 10:19, June 8, 2020 (UTC)

10/10 now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:14, June 8, 2020 (UTC)

I still do not foresee any development of this system. Wind shear values in the north Atlantic are very high, and SSTs in the region are also not conducive. This will probably be a tropical or subtropical depression at best. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 23:19, June 8, 2020 (UTC)

In my opinion this waste of space won't form. Chosen Wizard (Weather nerd) (Contributions) 12:47, June 9, 2020 (UTC)

And this AOI is off the NHC TWO... Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 01:54, June 11, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: East of the Windward Islands[]

Yet another area of interest, however unfavorable conditions in the area mean it only has a 10% chance of formation. Nickcoro (talk) 23:39, June 10, 2020 (UTC)

For the middle of June, the Atlantic has had extremely continuous activity. Although I do not see this AOI becoming tropical, its location reminds me of Bret from 2017. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 01:56, June 11, 2020 (UTC)

Highly unlikely to become anything, but I'm not very comfortable with the fact that there is an AOI here this early in the season. As far as I know, MDR activity this early in the year is a well-known harbinger of a very active or hyperactive season later on. The 2020 season is one to really be concerned about, especially because of the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 05:28, June 11, 2020 (UTC)

There have been some years with small AOI's around here that didn't form in the past, which didn't turn out to be active. Usually, if fully-formed storms form in the MDR early in the year (Like Bret and Don in 2017, or Beryl in 2018), they can moisten up the atmosphere around this area and eat up the wind shear so storms later in the season can become stronger in the area. I'm not so sure about this one doing that though. Shear near the antilles is super strong and will likely kill it before it does anything. Ryan 1000 16:33, June 11, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like this AOI is toast, down to near 0% for both 2 and 5 days. Should be off the outlook soon. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 22:05, June 11, 2020 (UTC)

And gone. It's still early in the season though, and we have another week to beat Danielle of 2016 for the earliest 4th named storm record. Otherwise, her record will stand. Ryan 1000 04:25, June 12, 2020 (UTC)

I don't really know where to post this (maybe when we do retirement odds eventually), but this season (according to wikipedia) has already done half a billion dollars of damages. ~ Bluecaner (talk) 20:31, June 13th, 2020 (UTC)

Bertha the small, weak but unpredictable storm contributed more than 200 million dollars of damage ! ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:14, June 13, 2020 (UTC)

I was not expecting this AOI to develop (nor Bertha to be so damaging!). However, I want to point out that while $500 million in losses may seem like a lot for this time of the year, it is not unprecedented. Namely, the 2001 season already experienced over $8 billion (2001 USD) in total damages by the middle of June because of Allison. Also, the 1972 season's total losses reached over $2 billion (1972 USD) largely because of Hurricane Agnes. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:22, June 14, 2020 (UTC)

Yeah, and in today's dollars the damage done by Cristobal and Bertha isn't much for the U.S. or Mexico, so...I'd save the retirement section here for later. Amanda's 200 million for El Salvador is considerable for them though, hence why I started that a bit early. Ryan 1000 05:19, June 14, 2020 (UTC)

94L.INVEST[]

AOI: East of the Georgia Coast[]

This one came up today. Accoring to the TWO, it has a small chance of developing some subtropical characteristics before it moves inland. 10/10 now. Beatissima (talk) 19:48, June 15, 2020 (UTC)

Wow, so many AoIs before august. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:10, June 15, 2020 (UTC)

Ikr. But environmental conditions are too unfavorable for any significant development, so nothing should come out of this. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 05:59, June 16, 2020 (UTC)

Let's hope that this won't pull a Bertha. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 06:21, June 16, 2020 (UTC)

94L.INVEST[]

Invest per Tidbits. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:56, June 16, 2020 (UTC)

Also down to 0/0 just like the Trinidad AOI. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:09, June 17, 2020 (UTC)

Gone. Off the TWO. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:34, June 17, 2020 (UTC)

Still up on NRL and Tidbits, though it's moving well inland and won't develop further. Currently bringing a nasty wet pattern to Virginia and surrounding regions, with showers extending into Kentucky and Ohio. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:46, June 17, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: East of Trinidad and Tobago[]

Yet another AOI, and yet another 10% chance of formation. Nickcoro (talk) 17:52, June 16, 2020 (UTC)

Wow, another MDR AoI in June.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:05, June 16, 2020 (UTC)

Hmm...This is slightly nerve-racking, seeing two early-season MDR's in June, hopefully this isn't going to lead to a terrible season for the MDR later on. This won't develop because of shear and expected interaction with South America, but later on in the season it may be a different story. Ryan 1000 04:50, June 17, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 0/0. Danielle's record will stay for at least another year. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:09, June 17, 2020 (UTC)

Also removed from the TWO. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:58, June 17, 2020 (UTC)

ANOTHER area of interest? The Atlantic isn't playing around in this year's early season. The amount of AOIs plus the two MDR systems (with this being the 2nd) should really concern us all. Although this is dead now, it along with the other MDR AOI have started to clear the path for a potentially dangerous train of monster hurricanes later in the season. With the COVID-19 pandemic still raging, any devastating hurricane this year might be more costly than usual to prepare for and rebuild from. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:46, June 17, 2020 (UTC)

04L.DOLLY[]

AOI: Off the Southeastern US Coast[]

And, yet another one. Also not expected to develop into a tropical system, but could take on subtropical characteristics in its lifespan, though it's not expected to last much into next week as it heads over cooler waters. Beatissima (talk) 23:59, June 19, 2020 (UTC) AoI no.9 before August.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 01:12, June 20, 2020 (UTC)

"Always an AOI, never a storm." Beatissima (talk) 02:04, June 20, 2020 (UTC)

Pretty nerve-racking to see so many AOIs this early in the year. I think they're helping clear the path for potentially very dangerous hurricanes later on and a very notable season up ahead. This is highly unlikely to develop though, but it could pull a surprise. ~ Steve 👨 Happy Father's Day!💝 17:38, June 20, 2020 (UTC)

20/20 now ! ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:54, June 21, 2020 (UTC)

95L.INVEST[]

Invested, up to 40/40. I have a feeling it might steal Dolly, I hope it won't though. ~ Steve 👨 Happy Father's Day!💝 18:21, June 21, 2020 (UTC)

Looks pretty nice for a storm so far north, though if it becomes (sub)tropical storm Dolly then it probably won't last long before dying over unfavorable conditions as it moves northeast. Ryan 1000 20:20, June 21, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 30/30.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:53, June 22, 2020 (UTC)

20/20.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 06:23, June 22, 2020 (UTC)

A (sub)tropical cyclone is becoming less likely now, looks like Dolly has to wait. Let's just be glad it didn't steal the name. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 17:39, June 22, 2020 (UTC)

Actually spoke too soon, the new outlook has just been released and it's 40/40 again. It's becoming notably better organized, so sadly it might pull an Olga or Bertha and be a very short-lived named storm. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:03, June 22, 2020 (UTC)

It has a nice structure already as seen from GOES-East. Beatissima (talk) 18:11, June 22, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 80% chance now. NHC says advisories could be initated by 5 PM AST on Potentially Subtropical Depression Four. Looking subtropical on satellite as well Nickcoro (talk) 20:17, June 22, 2020 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression Four[]

Here it is! 35mph and a pressure at 1009mb. Forecast has it become a weak STS soon. Nickcoro (talk) 20:52, June 22, 2020 (UTC)

Arguably the greatest plot twist ever (besides the other ones) (It's actually not much of a plot twist). This reminds me of Bertha earlier this year. A Subtropical Depression peak would be cool. If 2020 wants to beat 2005, It'l have to keep this level of activity through July. ~ Bluecaner (talk) 20:56, June 22nd, 2020 (UTC)

Wow. A SD system. Note: GFS now forecasted that Eduoard probably formed about early July. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:59, June 22, 2020 (UTC)

Question...do we count this in the betting pool even though it's a subtropical depression and not a subtropical storm? Do we want to change the wording of the bet from "subtropical storm" to "subtropical system"? Beatissima (talk) 23:18, June 22, 2020 (UTC)

That's a nice point Beatissima...I say we count it, because I added a statement saying that subtropical depressions also count in the SWIO betting pools, so we can add this to the Atlantic betting pools too. Ryan 1000 00:01, June 23, 2020 (UTC)

Thanks! Beatissima (talk) 02:57, June 23, 2020 (UTC)

Surprised this formed. Glad I actually caught this one while it was active, I didn't catch Bertha earlier. YellowSkarmory (talk) 12:18, June 23, 2020 (UTC)

Side note: I hate how people overeact about saharan dust come to the US this summer and blame the year 2020. Saharan dust literally come to the US or GOM every summer yet no one complain about it. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:02, June 23, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Dolly[]

Not only has SD 4 been upgraded to Dolly, the storm is now fully tropical. Winds at 45mph and a pressure at 1002mb. Nickcoro (talk) 16:18, June 23, 2020 (UTC)

🎶 Well, hello, Dolly! 🎵 Beatissima (talk) 18:14, June 23, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like we have 4 named storms before July for the 3rd time on record, and the other two were in the past decade alone...a very convincing case for the Atlantic season's start to be pushed back to May 15 next year, just like the East Pacific. While Danielle of 2016 formed a few days earlier, this is still nice to see. I would laugh if this year has a completely dead July and doesn't kick up again until the start of August, just like the other two years that had 4 pre-July named storms (2012 and 2016). Ryan 1000 19:12, June 23, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like we've got another short-lived name stealer. Not expected to intensify any further before dissipating tomorrow, although I might not rule out it reaching 50 mph. And yeah, the NHC should really consider pushing the season's start date to May 15. It might be climate change or something that's causing more activity to occur earlier in the year. Also imagine if this will be a trend for every leap year from here on out... four named storms before July and a dead July. 😂 But considering how much AOIs we've already had (in addition to the four storms) I'm not sure if 2020 will actually repeat 2012 and 2016 and see a completely dead July. It's possible that the Atlantic wants to pull off a 1933 (or even, god forbid, a 2005) this year. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 22:06, June 23, 2020 (UTC)

The third earliest 4th named storms is Dolly the Melissa's clone. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:43, June 23, 2020 (UTC)

Despite the two AOI's we saw near the antilles earlier, we saw no full-fledged named storms there yet, so it's not necessarily guaranteed we'll see bad storms in the MDR later, but even if we don't see a hyperactive MDR in August and September this year, we still have a long way to go; 2012 and 2016, the other two years with 4 named storms before July, didn't get their big season-defining storms (Sandy and Matthew, respectively) until October. Ryan 1000 01:17, June 24, 2020 (UTC)

TS Dolly 2020 is waste of space #2 (after Bertha). I'm just glad this is staying out at sea as a weak TS than coming towards land as a hurricane. Chosen Wizard (Weather nerd) (Contributions) My 2020 Name Retirement Chances out now! 02:59, June 24, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 40mph. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:24, June 24, 2020 (UTC)

To Steve, I'm pretty sure if the trend continues, Edouard will form in August. Weather is weird. Chosen Wizard (Weather nerd) (Contributions) My 2020 Name Retirement Chances out now! 03:31, June 24, 2020 (UTC)

Could be earlier than that because GFS forecasted that Edouard could form in July in the GOM. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 08:17, June 24, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Dolly[]

Dolly has met her demise. It is fun to see her as the northernmost June storm in History. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 08:56, June 24, 2020 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly[]

Demise complete.--Isaac829 E-Mail 17:36, June 24, 2020 (UTC)

And she's gone. The main reason I am creating this (Well Isaac did this before me so I'm fixing it) is that while 2005 was the most active ATL season of all time, it had a, lets just say "bad" MDR, Hence why it's only 2nd in ACE. An active MDR isn't everything. ~ Bluecaner (talk) 17:39, June 24th, 2020

AOI: Near Southeastern Coast of U.S.[]

AoI no.10 before August. Damm, Atlantic isn’t joking this year. Now at 0/20.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:50, June 28, 2020 (UTC)

This has more model support than 96L in the open Atlantic, though I hope this doesn't steal Edouard like Dolly did... Ryan 1000 15:32, June 28, 2020 (UTC)

And if it somehow becomes Edouard it would be the earliest 5th named storm on record, beating Emily from 2005. Unlike 2012 and 2016, I don't think the Atlantic wants to sleep for July. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:28, June 28, 2020 (UTC)

At 10/10 now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 10:16, June 30, 2020 (UTC)

0/0 now. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:43, June 30, 2020 (UTC)

It's dead. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 20:23, June 30, 2020 (UTC)

96L.INVEST[]

AOI: near Cabo Verde[]

AoI no.11 before August and No.3 in MDR. MDR isn’t joking too.Now at 10/20.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:50, June 28, 2020 (UTC)

96L.INVEST[]

This system actually become an Invest per Tidbits but will become nothing.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:54, June 28, 2020 (UTC)

I don't expect much either, environmental conditions are usually not very conducive down in the MDR at this time of year. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:28, June 28, 2020 (UTC)

The Sahara dust will probably eat this one before it does much mischief. Beatissima (talk) 19:10, June 28, 2020 (UTC

Off the TWO.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 10:15, June 30, 2020 (UTC)

Hurricane Wiki

Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/June

Contents

June[]

03L.CRISTOBAL[]

AOI: Remnants of Amanda[]

93L.INVEST[]

Tropical Depression Three[]

Tropical Storm Cristobal[]

Tropical Depression Cristobal[]

Tropical Storm Cristobal (2nd time)[]

Landfall near Grand Isle[]

Tropical Depression Cristobal (2nd time)[]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristobal[]

AOI: Near Bermuda[]

AOI: East of the Windward Islands[]

94L.INVEST[]

AOI: East of the Georgia Coast[]

94L.INVEST[]

AOI: East of Trinidad and Tobago[]

04L.DOLLY[]

AOI: Off the Southeastern US Coast[]

95L.INVEST[]

Subtropical Depression Four[]

Tropical Storm Dolly[]

Tropical Depression Dolly[]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly[]

AOI: Near Southeastern Coast of U.S.[]

96L.INVEST[]

AOI: near Cabo Verde[]

96L.INVEST[]