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{{Forumheader |
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| − | |archives = |
+ | |archives = [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/Archive 1|1]]}} |
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| − | |align=left|'''Monthly Archives''': [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/Pre-season|Pre-season]], [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/June|June]], [[/July/]]<br />'''Storm Event Archives''': |
+ | |align=left|'''Monthly Archives''': [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/Pre-season|Pre-season]], [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/June|June]], [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/July|July]], [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/August|August]], [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/September|September]], [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/October|October]], [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/November|November]]<br />'''Storm Event Archives''':[[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/Isaias|Isaias]], [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/Laura|Laura]], [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/Sally|Sally]], [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/Eta|Eta]], [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/Iota|Iota]] |
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{{TCBasinNav|year=2020|SHEM=2019-20}} |
{{TCBasinNav|year=2020|SHEM=2019-20}} |
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| − | ==Future start== |
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| − | We've still got a little over a month and a half until 2020 comes, but since the Atlantic is pretty dead right now, 2019 will probably be over soon enough without much else. I'm going to make an early prediction on 2020's activity, might change this later on but for now I'm going to predict 8-14 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes, 1-3 majors and (hopefully) no category 5's for the first time since 2015. Maybe I'm just wanting to be conservative here...but the Atlantic can almost never handle five consecutive active seasons without some sort of slowdown from El Nino or something like that, and I'd be surprised if the Atlantic produces another very active season in 2020. Also, added the [[Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season/Betting pools|betting pools]], with some changes. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 03:31, November 14, 2019 (UTC) |
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| + | {{Template:Season Discussions |
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| − | :Hello, I'm Mike, a new user from Portland, Oregon with an interest in meterology. I have been tracking hurricanes since the beginning of 2018 and have been fascinated by their powerful forces ever since. I personally don't think the Atlantic would be able to handle five active seasons in a row. In addition to that, I think a strong El Nino, that would develop in the winter of 2020-21, would blanket the Atlantic, leading to a less than active season, finishing pretty early. I have currently gone with 11-4-1, with an ACE of 64, however this is subject to change. The major hurricane would be a Category 4, no landfall. Very easy on the eyes, won't harm a fly. Would be responsible for about 60% of the ACE this season, I've predicted this would be roughly around the E-named storm. I would think only one name would get retired, and that would be maybe a storm in September, a Category 2 maybe, that has solely Caribbean/Gulf impacts. This is all subject to change, however. [[User:Aquaria485|Aquaria485]] ([[User talk:Aquaria485|talk]]) 17:11, November 14, 2019 (UTC) |
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| + | |Basin = Atlantic |
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| + | |Last year = 2019 |
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| − | ::I have truly been surprised by what the Atlantic has managed to achieve in the past few years. For the record, [https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/active-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season-comes-to-end according to the NOAA], 2016-2019 was only the second time on record four consecutive Atlantic hurricane seasons were above normal (after 1998-2001). Ryan and Mike, fortunately, CSU and TSR seem to agree with you. Both have stated that neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail next summer, and TSR is explicitly forecasting a near-average season. That being said, 2005, the most active Atlantic hurricane season ever, also occurred under neutral conditions. Although I believe January is too early to make an accurate prediction, I think '''13''' named storms, '''6''' hurricanes, and '''2''' major hurricanes will form this year in the Atlantic. [[User:Andrew444|<span class="button">Andrew</span>]][[User talk:Andrew444|<span class="button">Talk To Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/Andrew444|<span class="button">Contribs</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Andrew444|<span class="button">Mail Me</span>]] 23:48, January 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| + | |TC Name = hurricane |
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| + | |Current Year = 2020 |
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| − | :::I'm not sure what to make of this year. Might be active or near-average, we'll see. However the Atlantic almost can never handle 5 active seasons in a row. I believe something along the lines of 12-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors is likely. 2019 and 2018 exceeded initial expectations after all. Would not be too surprised if another very notable season lies ahead. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#0BF;">Steve 🎉</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Happy</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">2020!</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">🎆</span>]] 01:27, January 2, 2020 (UTC) |
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| + | |Next year = 2021}} |
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| − | ::: |
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| − | ::: |
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| − | i think there could be 14-19 named storms, 4-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 majors due to la nĩna. [[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 06:30, March 19, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | If the COVID-19 pandemic hasn't delayed anything, CSU and TSR forecasts should be released next week: [https://tropical.colostate.edu/ CSU on April 2], TSR April 5 or later going by past years. To recap, TSR called for 15 TS, 7 HU, and 4 MH, i.e. slightly above-average, in December. Recent ENSO predictions show neutral conditions through September/October (though this is still highly uncertain). ~ '''[[User:KN2731|KN2731]]''' <small>{[[User talk:KN2731|talk]]}</small> 09:32, March 29, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | CSU forecasting a nearly hyperactive season with 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes,ACE:150 due to the transition from warm phase to cool neutral or even weak La Nĩna.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 23:17, April 2, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :It would be terrible to have a hyperactive season this year, especially while the coronavirus pandemic (which might continue through the peak of the hurricane season) is already wrecking havoc on emergency services. 2020 would truly go down in history as one of the most devastating post-WWII years if a re-Katrina or a repeat of the infamous 2017 storms occurs this year. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#000;">Steve 🙏🏻</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Praying for the world</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">to recover from coronavirus.</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 20:34, April 3, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | I forgot to mentioned that CSU also warned that the Caribbean and the U.S coastline has significantly higher chance of getting a Major Hurricane landfall.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 06:59, April 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | [http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApr2020.pdf TSR's April update] is 16/8/3. Interestingly, they expect less major hurricanes than they did in December, where they called for 4 majors (though this update claims they said 3 earlier??). ~ '''[[User:KN2731|KN2731]]''' <small>{[[User talk:KN2731|talk]]}</small> 09:58, April 8, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | At least the ACE forecast is more accurate. A 4 major hurricanes season can't have ACE of 105.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 10:09, April 8, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Unless we are looking at a 2019 PHS type thing. --''[[User:JavaHurricane| <span style = "color:green">Java</span>]][[User talk:JavaHurricane|<span style = "color:red">Hurricane</span>]] 11:40, April 8, 2020 (UTC)'' |
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| − | I'm starting to think that 2020 could be the ''WORST YEAR'' for America's Hospitals because of the ongoing COVID-19 situation and the upcoming above average hurricane season.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 07:53, April 14, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | University of Arizona release their forecast: 16-22 named storms, 8-12 Hurricanes and 4-6 Major Hurricanes with ACE between 123-203.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 23:42, April 15, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | NCSU forecast (hyperactive season ahead): 18-22 named storms, 8-11 Hurricanes and 3-5 Major hurricanes (yikes). They're expecting: 6-10 named storms, 2-5 Hurricanes and 1-2 Major Hurricanes in the gulf alone ![[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 14:09, April 17, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :If this comes to fruition 2020 might be the most active season since 2005... possibly more active than even the 2010-12 seasons and rivaling 1933. Unfortunately that means some very costly hurricanes similar to Irma, Harvey, Maria, Sandy, or Katrina might be on the cards. Would be truly terrible to see a tropical cyclone disaster happen while the pandemic is still ongoing. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#000;">Steve 🙏🏻</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Praying for the world</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">to recover from coronavirus.</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 17:11, April 18, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::this season is looking so scary, can't help myself from thinking about the worst case scenario.[[User:GentleEarthquake|GentleEarthquake]] 20:34, April 24, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :: |
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| − | ::But let's hope that the thermohaline circulation won't randomly weakened like back in 2013.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 13:46, April 26, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :: |
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| − | ::La Nĩna is coming soon ! [[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 04:29, May 3, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::[[File:A0A26626-C9FB-487A-942E-43749B0F51F3.png|thumb|left]] |
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| − | NOAA forecasted: 13-19 named storms, 6-10 Hurricanes and 3-6 Major hurricanes.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 15:15, May 21, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :All future forecast links should go in the section below. [[User:Andrew444|<span class="button">Andrew</span>]][[User talk:Andrew444|<span class="button">Talk To Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/Andrew444|<span class="button">Contribs</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Andrew444|<span class="button">Mail Me</span>]] 01:26, May 26, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::It is now officially hurricane season in the Atlantic! I am excited for the six months ahead, and I hope this year will not be too destructive! [[User:Andrew444|<span class="button">Andrew</span>]][[User talk:Andrew444|<span class="button">Talk To Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/Andrew444|<span class="button">Contribs</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Andrew444|<span class="button">Mail Me</span>]] 02:18, June 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ==Seasonal forecasts== |
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| − | {| border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width: 700px" |
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| − | |Agency |
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| − | |Date of release |
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| − | |Named storms forecast |
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| − | |Hurricanes forecast |
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| − | |Major hurricanes forecast |
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| − | |Accumulated cyclone energy forecast |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDec2020.pdf Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)] |
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| − | |December 19, 2019 |
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| − | |15 |
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| − | |7 |
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| − | |4 |
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| − | |105 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2020/04/2020-04.pdf Colorado State University (CSU)] |
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| − | |April 2, 2020 |
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| − | |16 |
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| − | |8 |
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| − | |4 |
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| − | |150 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApr2020.pdf TSR] |
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| − | |April 7, 2020 |
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| − | |16 |
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| − | |8 |
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| − | |3 |
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| − | |130 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[http://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/ua_tropical_cyclone_forecast_in_april_2020.pdf University of Arizona] |
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| − | |April 13, 2020 |
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| − | |19 |
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| − | |10 |
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| − | |5 |
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| − | |163 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-04-15-atlantic-hurricane-season-april-outlook-the-weather-company-ibm The Weather Channel] |
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| − | |April 16, 2020 |
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| − | |18 |
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| − | |9 |
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| − | |4 |
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| − | |N/A |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://news.ncsu.edu/2020/04/2020-active-hurricane-season/ North Carolina State University] |
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| − | |April 17, 2020 |
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| − | |18-22 |
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| − | |8-11 |
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| − | |3-5 |
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| − | |N/A |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/ciclones-tropicales/pronostico-ciclones-tropicales-2020 Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)] (in Spanish) |
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| − | |May 20, 2020 |
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| − | |15-19 |
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| − | |7-9 |
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| − | |3-4 |
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| − | |N/A |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)] |
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| − | |May 21, 2020 |
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| − | |13-19 |
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| − | |6-10 |
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| − | |3-6 |
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| − | |110% to 190% of Atlantic median (102-176) |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastPreSeason2020.pdf TSR] |
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| − | |May 28, 2020 |
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| − | |17 |
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| − | |8 |
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| − | |3 |
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| − | |135 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-06.pdf CSU] |
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| − | |June 4, 2020 |
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| − | |19 |
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| − | |9 |
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| − | |4 |
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| − | |160 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[http://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/june_2020_hurricane_prediction-ua.docx University of Arizona] |
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| − | |June 12, 2020 |
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| − | |17 |
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| − | |11 |
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| − | |4 |
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| − | |166 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-07.pdf CSU] |
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| − | |July 7,2020 |
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| − | |20 |
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| − | |9 |
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| − | |4 |
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| − | |160 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastJuly2020.pdf TSR] |
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| − | |July 7,2020 |
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| − | |18 |
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| − | |8 |
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| − | |4 |
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| − | |137 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2020-07-17-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook-update TWC] |
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| − | |July 16,2020 |
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| − | |20 |
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| − | |8 |
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| − | |4 |
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| − | |N/A |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/tropical-atlantic-could-turn-hyperactive-as-peak-of-hurricane-season-looms/785249 Accuweather] |
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| − | |July 30,2020 |
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| − | |20-24 |
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| − | |9-11 |
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| − | |4-6 |
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| − | |170-200 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-08.pdf CSU] |
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| − | |August 5,2020 |
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| − | |24 |
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| − | |12 |
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| − | |5 |
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| − | |200 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastAug2020.pdf TSR] |
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| − | |August 5,2020 |
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| − | |24 |
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| − | |10 |
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| − | |4 |
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| − | |166 |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml NOAA] |
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| − | |August 6,2020 |
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| − | |19-25 |
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| − | |7-11 |
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| − | |3-6 |
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| − | |140% to 230% of Atlantic median (130-213) |
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| − | |} |
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| − | After a conversation I had with Steve, I am introducing a new section to all basins in which seasonal forecasts are issued. I believe that seasonal forecasts are a crucial resource to gain a better appreciation of how active a tropical cyclone season may be. In addition, Hurricanes Wiki has never had a separate section for these predictors (until now), and it can be frustrating to create new sections every single time a new forecast is released. I hope the seasonal forecasts section can be used not just in 2020, but in the years to come. |
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| − | In short, whenever an agency issues a new forecast, simply add it to the bottom row of the above table. Be sure to include the link to the forecast, as well as any major information (e.g. date of release, named storms predicted). '''If a forecast is written in a language besides English, please indicate this next to the agency name'''. Please let me know on my wall if you have any further questions. [[User:Andrew444|<span class="button">Andrew</span>]][[User talk:Andrew444|<span class="button">Talk To Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/Andrew444|<span class="button">Contribs</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Andrew444|<span class="button">Mail Me</span>]] 01:26, May 26, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ==July== |
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| − | ===09L.ISAIAS=== |
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| − | ====AOI: Emerging from Africa==== |
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| − | The atlantic refuses to let up with more potential activity on the way. Currently 0/20. [[User:Nickcoro|Nickcoro]] ([[User talk:Nickcoro|talk]]) 18:13, July 23, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Probably won't develop until it reaches the area where Gonzalo is currently at. Is it possible that the "I" name will come before the end of this month? It's like the Atlantic is really trying hard to reach the Greek letters this year... ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 20:14, July 23, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Atlantic is in a hurry this year... hopefully this won't mark a return for the "I" curse... [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Jas (Anonymous 2.0)]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 23:11, July 23, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::In the latest run of the European model (which is the most accurate in this year so far I think) show that this system may intensify into a '''Major''' and may landfall on the Bahamas.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 23:43, July 23, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | The Euro is traditionally among the best performing of the models, though they have made some misses in the past. In any instance, this wave was shown on some previous runs on Tidbits to follow in Gonzalo's footsteps but head further north and be considerably strong too. Long way down the road, but something to watch out for. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:13, July 24, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Now 0/40. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 18:02, July 24, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====92L.INVEST==== |
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| − | Looks like it already got invested. And it's ALREADY time to remind you to... '''[[Wikipedia:Tropical Storm Imelda|Be]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Irma|wa]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ingrid|re]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Isaac (2012)|the]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Irene|I]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Igor|of]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ike|the]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ivan|st]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Isabel|or]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Isidore|m]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Iris|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Irene_(1999)|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Irene–Olivia|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Inez|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Isbell|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Ione|!]][[Wikipedia:1950_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Item|!]]''' I didn't expect I would have to say this until...like...late August or even September, but here we are. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 19:40, July 24, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :I just noticed that there are 4 landfalls on the US this year so far. Hanna is the 5th one .[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 02:09, July 25, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Actually Arthur slightly missed a landfall on the NC coast, so we've had three so far, which were Bertha, Cristobal, and Fay. Hanna would be the 4th (unless you count Douglas in the EPac, provided he hits Hawaii in a few days). Still not sure what to think of 92L down the road, the Euro remains aggressive on this but the GFS doesn't show too much. Furthermore, both models take this running into Hispaniola with their latest runs down the road, and if that happens then Isaias-to-be might not make it to the U.S. as a strong system, if at all. But, we've still got a long way to go. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:17, July 25, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Up to 10/60. The runs on Tidbits follow the recent guidance of the global models and take it towards a landfall in Hispaniola, but if it takes the southern end of some of the projected paths then it might swing into the gulf way down the road. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 14:30, July 25, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | 20/70. [https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7a8dcd7c15a7698c7b90cc6c62b46725e9343878e3ba1243b351d2d09c5a0e62.png The latest runs] of the GFS ensembles on tidbits take this on a more north-northwesterly turn before reaching the antilles and possibly threatening New England down the road...still a long ways out to tell, but it's unnerving nonetheless. We've already got a record 8 named storms before August, and if this becomes Isaias within the next 6 days (and it already has a 70% chance of forming within the next 5), then this would beat 2005's Irene by more than a week (August 7) for the earliest 9th named storm. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 18:24, July 25, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Now 50/80. [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Jas (Anonymous 2.0)]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 23:52, July 25, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Isaias debut is coming soon.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 01:22, July 26, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :: Man, this invest is getting more and more nerve-racking, with [https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/41719d1bf0af9fe34a3ecef13d3c2bd28b0f1b8c6a4db658974ca3f8e3d68c80.png the latest runs of the GFS] making this a possible repeat of Hugo down the road, and the models are increasingly confident that this will be a hurricane sometime in the next 5 days...behave, 92L. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 04:56, July 26, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :::'''[[Wikipedia:Tropical Storm Imelda|Be]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Irma|wa]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ingrid|re]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Isaac (2012)|the]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Irene|I]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Igor|of]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ike|the]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ivan|st]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Isabel|or]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Isidore|m]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Iris|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Irene_(1999)|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Irene–Olivia|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Inez|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Isbell|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Ione|!]][[Wikipedia:1950_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Item|!]]''' This is getting really concerning, I agree. Hopefully our fears won't come to fruition down the line. It's really early in the year to see something this threatening, which makes the peak of the season in late August to September even more frightening... Also, it's now 60/90, which makes this almost certain to form and become the earliest "I" storm ever, beating Irene from 2005, and the record 9th storm before August. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 05:55, July 26, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | 70/90, should be a TD by around Tuesday. The potential threat to the Greater Antilles and U.S. east coast will be no laughing matter. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 22:07, July 26, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | 80/90. 09L is coming.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 00:12, July 27, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : [https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d24680be70bee8dd007bc55280f75b68116657ced03f605c85e847883927c9cf.png More of the model runs] are turning 92L northeast down the road, which would be good news for the U.S. eastern seaboard, but Atlantic Canada could eventually be hit. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 04:21, July 27, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Decreased to 70/80. Might not reach TS strength until right when it reaches the Antilles, but that would be worse news for the U.S, [https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/50e8778d33b290f768c38d652f7f0e65bb8dc2de9f3c81b5e00aac8fe9d0524a.png as the CMC ensembles] now make this a repeat of Irene or Floyd, or it could be a bit weaker like Bertha '96. Either way, if this takes a little longer to develop, the U.S. may have to wach out, because the later this forms, the less likely it is to recurve northeast and out to sea. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 19:31, July 27, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Well, this has been organizing a bit slower than I expected. Back up to 80/90 though. I expect a TD tomorrow or so, and it's certainly going to beat Irene from 2005's record when it becomes named. This better develop soon - I prefer a weaker version of Earl (2010) than a destructive East Coast landfall. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 05:42, July 28, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | The NHC said that this system is producing winds near tropical-storm-force but because of the disorganize look of this system, 92L is still not a TD.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 12:09, July 28, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine==== |
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| − | NHC will be initiating advisories soon on PTC Nine, the first PTC this year. [[User:Nickcoro|Nickcoro]] ([[User talk:Nickcoro|talk]]) 14:40, July 28, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :1st Advisory of this system has been issued.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 15:04, July 28, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::I have doubts if this makes it past Hispaniola.--[[User:Isaac829|<span class="button"><font face="Courier New">Isaac829</font></span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Isaac829|<span class="button"><font face="Courier New">E-Mail</font></span>]] 15:09, July 28, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | While PTC 9 is expected to miss Hispaniola to the north as of now, wind shear is pretty rough in front of this system, which may weaken or kill it before it becomes anything strong. NHC expects the shear to be very strong by around 48 hours when it nears Hispaniola. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 17:29, July 28, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Yeah, the center will probably pass just to the north, enough for it to not be killed by the island's terrain. The PTC currently has winds of 40 mph and a pressure of 1007 mbar, with chances of formation being 90/90. The Antilles are expected to receive impacts from to-be Isaias tomorrow and Thursday. The forecast cone currently predicts a TS landfall in Florida, however it's really uncertain that far out as it does not have a well-defined center yet. In the worst-case scenario, it might ride up the eastern seaboard as a weak hurricane. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 22:39, July 28, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Actually...considering I said "as of now" on the track above, this storm is heading farther west than it was earlier forecast since it still hasn't become Isaias yet, and now is expected to move directly over Hispaniola, which would kill any chance of this forming into a TS. But the longer it remains a PTC, the longer it will head west, so...worst-case scenario, it could reach the favorable western Caribbean instead of ride up the east coast. But the wind shear over the MDR is just so hostile right now, heck [https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7989720d628c37b6656934e4ca49e78c88574eec77c9c07367e1630f2bd506c9.gif some areas] northwest of this PTC currently have up to FIFTY knots of shear, so either way, this is gonna struggle for a bit, if it ever becomes named. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:54, July 29, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | I don't think it'll die out as fast as Gonzalo did. That potential cyclone is huuuuuuuge ([[User:TheMasterBait96|TheMasterBait96]] ([[User talk:TheMasterBait96|talk]]) 01:09, July 30, 2020 (UTC)) |
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| − | ====Tropical Storm Isaias==== |
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| − | I guess I have been butchering the pronunciation the whole time. Thank you NHC for the heads up.--[[User:Isaac829|<span class="button"><font face="Courier New">Isaac829</font></span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Isaac829|<span class="button"><font face="Courier New">E-Mail</font></span>]] 03:04, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Isaias is a tricky name to pronounce.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 03:39, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Isaias is a bit big for a tropical storm (though most of the thunderstorm activity is displaced to the northeast due to the shear), but a landfall over Hispaniola will probably wear him down quite a bit, maybe not to dissipation like it did to Emily in 2011 but it will take its toll on the storm nonetheless. The GFS and CMC ensembles on Tidbits are currently quite divided on where Isaias will end up, the GFS takes him on a more northward track and recurves him to the northeast before hitting the east coast of Florida, which would be a better scenario, but the CMC ensembles bring Isaias further west, passing south of Cuba after hitting Hispaniola and swinging into the GOM to hit Florida's west coast. That wouldn't be good, considering how strong Isaias could get in the more favorable environment over there. Hopefully the former materializes. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:21, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::It has arrived, the earliest "I" named storm on record and the first time 9 named storms have ever formed before August. '''[[Wikipedia:Tropical Storm Imelda|Be]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Irma|wa]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ingrid|re]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Isaac (2012)|the]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Irene|I]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Igor|of]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ike|the]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ivan|st]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Isabel|or]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Isidore|m]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Iris|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Irene_(1999)|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Irene–Olivia|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Inez|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Isbell|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Ione|!]][[Wikipedia:1950_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Item|!]]''' The Atlantic really is vying to rival 2005 in total storms this year... in fact, I might be surprised if this year '''doesn't''' exhaust the list or make it to the Greek letters. This has indeed been a pretty big system, and impacts throughout the Greater Antilles could be quite significant. Hopefully Hispaniola seriously ruins this system so it won't be much of a threat to the U.S. But even if it doesn't, land interaction should still halt much of its attempts at intensification. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 05:55, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :::I see PTC Nine finally became Isaias. Looks like this'll be another strong-ish tropical storm, that seems like all we're getting this season. [[User:YellowSkarmory|YellowSkarmory]] ([[User talk:YellowSkarmory|talk]]) 07:45, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::: |
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| − | :::Up to 60mph.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 10:15, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Forecast to reach 70 mph once it gets out of Hispaniola, despite the displaced convection (which, to be fair, has slightly improved overnight though). Not gonna lie, I must say that the NHC is surprisingly bullish about Isaias, considering they are usually conservative in their forecasts. [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Jas (Anonymous 2.0)]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 11:28, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : |
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| − | :Imagine if this system become an ugly C2 like 1998 Earl.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 11:46, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::This is one of the largest Caribbean tropical storms I've ever seen in terms of wind field. Thankfully this has a low chance of becoming a hurricane in the near future, or else things would get nastier than they are right now (with the flooding in Puerto Rico). [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|'''''<font color="sky blue">Chosen Wizard</font>''''']] ([[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|<font color="black">⛅ NERD</font>]]) ([https://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/IbAHAn1829tree <font color="black">Inputs</font>]) 14:26, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | It usually takes longer for larger storms to organize, so Isaias won't get hurricane strength unless he develops a more compact core in the coming days, but with a landfall in Hispaniola imminent later today, that's not as likely. Isaias is big enough to survive crossing the island, but it will probably get worn down enough to prevent him from becoming too strong afterwards, plus the NHC's forecast is more closely following the GFS model runs than the CMC's, so even if Isaias does later become a hurricane, it'll be heading out to sea by that point. As a side note, with Isaias forming, 2020 now ties 2005 for the most tropical storms to form in July on record, with 5, but because most of the storms we've had thus far were weak and short-lived, except for maybe Hanna, the ACE for the number of storms we've had thus far isn't very high. But, we still have the heart of the season to go, so that could change. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 15:11, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Landfall in Dominican Republic==== |
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| − | Made landfall a short while ago as a 60 mph storm. The winds haven't weakened yet but the thunderstorm action is still pushing to the northeast of the center. NHC suggests that Isaias could have it's center reform further north sometime soon, which could disrupt the possibility of this becoming a hurricane even more, but that's not out of the question. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 18:33, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :The NHC 5 pm advisory is now saying its expected to become a hurricane by Friday night. That's tropical weather for ya. [[User:Weathergirl02|Char]] ([[User talk:Weathergirl02|talk]]) 22:07, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Hurricane Isaias==== |
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| − | New update: Isaias rapidly intensifies and become the 2nd hurricane of the season with winds of 80mph. I think it may become a disorganized C2 like Earl 1998.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 03:50, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Will Isaias become another retired name storm ? We'll see soon.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 03:56, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Why do I get the feeling this one is going to RI into this season's first major? [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 04:16, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Isaias just shrugged off Hispaniola like it was nothing... um, ''what?!?!?'' --'''[[User:HurricaneMaker99|Dylan]]''' ([[Message Wall:HurricaneMaker99|Hurricane]][[Special:Contributions/HurricaneMaker99|Maker]][[wikipedia:User:Dylan620|99]]) 04:20, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Well, that's new...a tropical storm survivng not only strong shear but not even weakening at all after crossing the whole of Hispaniola to become a hurricane shortly after leaving the mountainous island. But, I guess there's a first for everything in the tropics...anyways, Isaias is expected to peak as an 85 mph hurricane before turning northeast and clipping at NC's Outer Banks; however, the latest satellite imagery of Isaias is quite nerve-racking...it looks like Isaias is shedding the outer convection that made him so large and which held back his intensity earlier, and is instead developing a smaller, more tightly compact core just north of Haiti. If Isaias explodes in that small core, then this could rapidly intensify and pull something similar to Irene for the east coast...behave, Isaias... '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:04, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Well I certainly did not expect a hurricane so soon, especially with the crossing of Hispaniola. The I curse seems to be fulfilling yet again this year. Memories of Irene are flooding back... don't become a major please. '''[[Wikipedia:Tropical Storm Imelda|Be]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Irma|wa]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ingrid|re]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Isaac (2012)|the]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Irene|I]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Igor|of]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ike|the]] [[Wikipedia:Hurricane Ivan|st]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane Isabel|or]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Isidore|m]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Iris|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Irene_(1999)|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Irene–Olivia|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Inez|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Isbell|!]][[Wikipedia:Hurricane_Ione|!]][[Wikipedia:1950_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Item|!]]''' ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:27, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Yikes. This is worrying me now, really hope this doesn't become a major. I don't think I'll have major effects from this as I'm inland a bit, but still could be bad. [[User:YellowSkarmory|YellowSkarmory]] ([[User talk:YellowSkarmory|talk]]) 11:44, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | I assume you left the above comment, YellowSkarmory, but you forgot to sign it. Anyways, the forecast now calls for Isaias to become a 100 mph storm before weakening to a cat 1 when he clips the NC Outer Banks, but if Isaias explodes in his little core of thunderstorms, he might even have an outside shot to become the first major of the year, if the shear doesn't impede him as much. After all, Isaias survived very strong shear and a landfall across Hispaniola as a tropical storm before he became a hurricane. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 13:13, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Did I really forget? Oops. Anyway, Isaias is currently at 80 mph with a pressure of 990 mb. [[User:YellowSkarmory|YellowSkarmory]] ([[User talk:YellowSkarmory|talk]]) 13:19, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Down to 75mph now .[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 14:59, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Whelp, Isaias is a strange storm, fittingly to its strange name. ~ [[User:Bluecaner|<span style="color:blue;">'''Blue'''</span><span style="color:teal;">'''caner'''</span>]] ([[User talk:Bluecaner|talk]] 16:26, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :::Yeah, it is especially strange for surviving Hispaniola like it was nothing. Currently, the intensity is 75 mph/991 mbar, but it is becoming better organized again. Hurricane warnings throughout the Bahamas, tropical storm warnings and a hurricane watch for the Florida coast. Forecast peak lowered to 90 mph, but I still expect a C2. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 19:49, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :::Up to 80mph again.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 00:16, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::::Apparently the eyewall is closed now. [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 02:30, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Some of the thunderstorm activity died down lately, and Isaias is no longer forecast to become a cat 2, but unfortunately the track has shifted farther west and he is now forecast to possibly make landfall on the east coast of Florida as a category 1 storm. Preparations better be underway. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:40, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :It's actually a bit stronger now - 85 mph/988 mbar. It seems like this might skirt Florida like Matthew did, but there's a good chance of landfall. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:28, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | I dunno, the [https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/09caf0acb3607675bb9aa27e887ab2579ba009c84b0142404b0e2b872dd0f27f.gif latest satellite imagery] for Isaias shows weakening thunderstorm convection...he's really struggling to hold on as a hurricane, unless there's a big blowup of convection near the center soon, Isaias may weaken to a tropical storm before reaching Florida. He's apparently struggling with some dry air. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 15:36, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Man, Isaias looks like he's just vanishing away as satellite imagery goes on. Down to 75 mph/990 mbars, but given that most of the convection has fallen away due to increased dry air over the storm, this might be downgraded to a tropical storm soon. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 18:21, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Does not look like a hurricane to me, but the winds are still strong enough I guess. [[User:YellowSkarmory|YellowSkarmory]] ([[User talk:YellowSkarmory|talk]]) 19:30, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Tropical Storm Isaias (2nd time)==== |
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| − | Isaias went down to a TS a few hours ago. [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 22:53, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : NHC expects him to regain hurricane strength before making landfall on Florida's east coast, but Isaias is still struggling to effectively organize due to the dry, stable air surrounding him and he has slowed down considerably too. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:14, August 2, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Down to 65mph.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 11:26, August 2, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Isaias' satellite appearance appears to be a little better today despite the weakening. It also doesn't appear to be as much of a significant threat to Florida anymore, as such the hurricane warnings have been dropped, but it could still produce some tropical-storm force winds along the eastern coastline. A landfall in the Carolinas is expected tomorrow night, and until then it's forecast to retain 65 mph winds (though don't be surprised if it re-strengthens to 70 mph). ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 18:51, August 2, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Isaias reached 70 mph some time ago, but he still isn't currently forecast to regain hurricane intensity since he's been struggling quite a bit with dry air and some shear. However, it can't be ruled out that Isaias could become a hurricane again, as thunderstorm activity is rebuilding over his center with [https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/47edf4ac4a9e8e24934cf8a9858428f2ed64bc3bf04c97dc75bbff6a791caa9c.gif the latest satellite imagery], but his slow movement could also prevent significant strengthening due to the possibility of upwelling over his own wake. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 02:14, August 3, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Now forecast to regain hurricane strength before making landfall in the Carolinas tonight. [[User:Qh12|Qh12]] ([[User talk:Qh12|talk]]) 15:17, August 3, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Looks like I'm under a Tropical Storm Warning for the first time since Irene (though we've had plenty of non-tropical high wind events in the years since). --'''[[User:HurricaneMaker99|Dylan]]''' ([[Message Wall:HurricaneMaker99|Hurricane]][[Special:Contributions/HurricaneMaker99|Maker]][[wikipedia:User:Dylan620|99]]) 15:40, August 3, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :::Yeah. |
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| − | :::''Alert for [...] County'' |
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| − | :::''Tropical Storm Warning'' |
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| − | :::''NWS Boston/Norton MA'' |
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| − | :::''11:11am EDT Mon Aug 3 2020'' |
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| − | :::''...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...'' |
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| − | :::''A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are'' |
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| − | :::''expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours'' |
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| − | :::... |
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| − | :::[[User:Qh12|Qh12]] ([[User talk:Qh12|talk]]) 17:20, August 3, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::::Stay safe, guys. Warnings related to Isaias currently extend all the way up the eastern seaboard, affecting tens of millions, from Georgia all the way up to a watch in Maine, and an area with a Hurricane Warning in the Carolinas near where this is expected to make landfall. The forecast actually takes it up to a hurricane again. However, I'm not too sure if that will materialize. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 18:56, August 3, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | I forgot about this for a day, and now this is projected to hit pretty close to me (DC area), so hopefully things aren't that bad here. I haven't had to deal with an actual TS in a while, so not sure quite how things will go. [[User:YellowSkarmory|YellowSkarmory]] ([[User talk:YellowSkarmory|talk]]) 18:59, August 3, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Hurricane Isaias (2nd time)==== |
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| − | It actually restrengthened to a hurricane very soon before landfall. 75 mph/988 mbar. Tornado warnings have been issued as well as a few have been reported. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 00:10, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Up further to 85 mph 😮 It better not be RIing. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 01:15, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :I've heard it's undergoing extratropical transition already, which is earlier than forecast. Either way, it's starting to worry me now. I wasn't expecting it to be too bad but it's strengthened pretty fast. [[User:YellowSkarmory|YellowSkarmory]] ([[User talk:YellowSkarmory|talk]]) 01:16, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Oh my... This isn't Isaias... This is Irene pretending to be Isaias.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 01:44, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina==== |
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| − | Landfall confirmed at around 11:10 PM EDT. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 03:22, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Hmm...this is a bit surprising, I didn't expect Isaias to quickly strengthen into an 85 mph storm right at the last second before making landfall, but apparently the storm's increased forward speed allowed it to do so without the influence of shear. However, because Isaias is rocketing to the northeast at 22 mph, he's not going to deliver as much flooding as he otherwise could, plus he has some extratropical characteristics. Irene had a lot more moisture in it since she was formerly a major hurricane near the Bahamas and didn't move as fast when she reached North Carolina. The most notable threat from Isaias will probably be storm surge in parts of upper Chesapeake Bay (which is much more populated than the North Carolina coastline, though Wilmington could see some damage too), and, as Steve mentioned, some tornadoes. Hopefully none of them are strong. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 03:28, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::I've also heard there were some fires near the landfall location. As it rides up the eastern seaboard, tens of millions will be impacted, which is why Isaias is such a big deal. Down to 75 mph/992 mbar per the latest advisory, and currently over eastern NC. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:30, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Tropical Storm Isaias (3rd time)==== |
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| − | Now officially below hurricane status. 70 mph, 992 mbars. [[User:Leeboy100|<span style="color:red">Leeboy100</span>]][[User Talk:leeboy100|<sup>Hello!</sup>]] 06:59, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Isaias is now zooming on by at 28 mph, which will bring him over New York or Vermont by tonight or early tomorrow morning, but most of the thunderstorm action is already over there, while the circulating winds are further south nearing southern Chesapeake Bay right now. As a side note, the landfall of Isaias apparently marks the earliest date for the 5th tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S, not too sure what the previous record was but it may have been 1916 which had it's 5th landfall by August 18th. That year has the record number of U.S. landfalling (sub)tropical storms in one season though, with 10, and this year would have to have 5 more in the next few months to tie that. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 11:51, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Luckily things haven't been too bad here so far, power hasn't gone out, pretty much just rain so far. [[User:YellowSkarmory|YellowSkarmory]] ([[User talk:YellowSkarmory|talk]]) 12:42, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :The center of Isaias has been moving quickly northeastward along the coast throughout the overnight hours into the morning, and the center is now located near New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York. Currently 65 mph/994 mbar, and interaction with a strong upper-level jet maximum has kept it from weakening too much. Should complete extratropical transition soon enough. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 18:17, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Isaias has really picked up speed and is now skyrocketing at 40 mph to the northeast. Rain is only going to be temporary because of this movement, but wind and surge damage may have been extensive in some areas earlier. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 18:19, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :It's getting windy. [[User:Qh12|Qh12]] ([[User talk:Qh12|talk]]) 19:55, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias==== |
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| − | RIP.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 03:24, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Sadly it seems at least 10 people have lost their lives. [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 03:33, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Damages may be unknown for some time, but until they are and after all is said and done, we'll keep this up for some time before we give Isaias his own archive. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:16, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Death toll currently stands at 18 (13 direct, 5 indirect; 2 in Dominican Republic, the rest are all in the U.S.). Preliminary damage totals at $75 million with many areas/states still not reporting. Additionally, Wikipedia says Isaias produced the largest tornado outbreak in the U.S. since Rita in 2005, although personally I think it's the biggest since Lee in 2011. [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Jas (Anonymous 2.0)]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 14:40, August 7, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : It might take some time for final totals to come out for all of the mid-Atlantic and northeast, but when they do, I'd be surprised if the damage totals don't exceed at least a billion or so. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 15:29, August 8, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ===10L.NONAME=== |
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| − | ====AOI: Near Cape Verde==== |
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| − | A tropical wave is up on the TWO at 10/10. However, environmental conditions aren't favorable for development after 2 days. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 05:55, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====93L.INVEST==== |
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| − | This is actually invested, and is now at 20/20, but still isn't expcted to become much due to unfavorable conditions in a few days. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 14:20, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Up to 50/50 now. 10 storms before August anyone? [[User:Nickcoro|Nickcoro]] ([[User talk:Nickcoro|talk]]) 17:42, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | If that happens, I swear...2005's Jose didn't come until August 22, to put that in perspective. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 18:33, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :At this rate, 2020 is going to be remembered as the year where almost every random AOI that nobody has any faith in at first proceeds to develop into a named storm. [[User:Send Help Please|<span style="color:green;">'''Send'''</span> <span style="color:teal;">'''Help'''</span> <span style="color:olive;">'''Please'''</span> ]] ([[User talk:Send Help Please|talk]]) 18:49, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Down slightly to 40/40. [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Jas (Anonymous 2.0)]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 00:20, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :I didn't expect such a rise in percentage. I doubt this will be anything more than a TD and will likely bust. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:27, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Down further to 20/20. Maybe the one east of the Lessers would be the one that will become Josephine. [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Jas (Anonymous 2.0)]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 11:59, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :::Back up to 50/50, and the NHC states that only a small increase in organization could turn this into a depression. [[User:Send Help Please|<span style="color:green;">'''Send'''</span> <span style="color:teal;">'''Help'''</span> <span style="color:olive;">'''Please'''</span> ]] ([[User talk:Send Help Please|talk]]) 19:16, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::::10 depressions before August if advisories are initiated very soon... 😮 It would truly surprise me if it became Josephine though. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 19:49, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Tropical Depression Ten==== |
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| − | "NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located about 200 miles west of the coast of Africa at 8pm CVT (2100 UTC)." welp [[User:Send Help Please|<span style="color:green;">'''Send'''</span> <span style="color:teal;">'''Help'''</span> <span style="color:olive;">'''Please'''</span> ]] ([[User talk:Send Help Please|talk]]) 20:48, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : The atlantic has offically lost its mind. Forecast to become a TS, beating the record by over 20 days. Currently at 35/1007. [[User:Nickcoro|Nickcoro]] ([[User talk:Nickcoro|talk]]) 21:27, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | 2 questions in my mind here, #1 is this going to become a tropical storm and break that record, #2 is it going to become a tropical storm at this next advisory and be the 10th named storm before August. Whatever this storm becomes, it won't be much, if Ten doesn't become a tropical storm in this next advisory I'll probably just hope it stays as a TD, it's not going to do much of anything either way though. [[User:YellowSkarmory|YellowSkarmory]] ([[User talk:YellowSkarmory|talk]]) 22:59, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :I am not that optimistic that this will become Josephine by the next advisory – not to mention that it is almost August 1 in Cape Verde now, just literally minutes away – but I am shocked as to how quickly this developed into a TD after the NHC lowered this to 20/20. Or maybe that's the pun... it's 2020 after all: anything could happen. Whatever happens to this system, it is already a record-breaker. [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Jas (Anonymous 2.0)]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 23:14, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Wow. The Atlantic is insane this year[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 00:17, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Damn... this really exploded into a TD. But it's not stealing Josephine anymore unless it does another miracle intensification overnight. The discussion also mentioned the possibility this had TS force winds very briefly earlier. Imagine this got upgraded to a TS in post-analysis... ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:28, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Even if it doesn't become Josephine (or an unnamed TS in reanalysis), this is the earliest 10th tropical depression of any AHS, beating TD 10 of 2005 by two weeks. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 15:41, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Down to 30 mph, probably going to degenerate to a remnant low soon. [[User:YellowSkarmory|YellowSkarmory]] ([[User talk:YellowSkarmory|talk]]) 19:28, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Remnants of Tropical Depression Ten==== |
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| − | And it's gone. [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 03:14, August 2, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : RIP.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 03:18, August 2, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ==August== |
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| − | ===94L.INVEST=== |
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| − | ====AOI: 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles==== |
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| − | New AOI.Now at 0/20.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 06:13, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :This might actually have slight potential to become Josephine, which would be the first ever J named storm before my birthday. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:27, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Happy upcoming birthday, Steve! [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 14:49, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :::Thanks! Even though there's still a bit less than 3 weeks to go... This AOI is up to 0/30, and unless 93L by some miracle steals Josephine, this should get that name. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 19:49, July 31, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | August has begun, so I put this AOI in the monthly archive just in case it forms in the month. Also, I've archived the rest of July, sans Isaias and TD 10 for now, and furthermore, this is now at 0/50. Looks like Josephine is coming... '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:48, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | 10/60.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 13:46, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : 20/60. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 18:19, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::30/60. [[User:Qh12|Qh12]] ([[User talk:Qh12|talk]]) 00:19, August 2, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====94L.INVEST==== |
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| − | Now an Invest.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 05:59, August 2, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Up to 40/60. A tropical depression, maybe even Josephine, might arrive mid-week. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 18:51, August 2, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Now 40/50... Taking its time to organize. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 00:11, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Further down to 30/30... Josephine might have to wait. [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Jas (Anonymous 2.0)]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 06:25, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Down to 30/30, and convection has mostly dissipated. Dry air will inhibit its attempts at developing, so Josephine looks like it will have to wait. Still hoping the J storm will form before my birthday, and with the way this season has gone, it's quite likely that something will form by then. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:30, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Down further to 20/20. Unless it wants to pull a surprise, Josephine shouldn't come out of this anymore, as dry air is too inhibiting at the moment. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 18:18, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Now 10/10, will very likely be off the outlook soon. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:16, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Side note: The reason why July 2020 is so active for Atlantic Hurricane season is because of the zonal vertical wind shear averaged across the central tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July is at its 2nd weakest on the record.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 07:45, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Oh dear...[https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-08.pdf][[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 15:14, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Note 2: 2005 is in 2020 best analog...[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 15:18, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::A prediction of 24 named storms... wow. [[User:Qh12|Qh12]] ([[User talk:Qh12|talk]]) 16:14, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | It seems like we may see a lot of named storms but not as many hurricanes, given the rate of storms not being hurricanes so far. So we might be something like 2011 but a bit busier, with a lot of named storms, but not as many hurricanes or majors as we could have for the number of storms we're expected to get. But we could still get a handful of strong storms at peak season, assuming the SAL dies down later on. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 19:06, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Down to 0/0.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 14:16, August 6, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ===AOI: SW of the Cabo Verde Islands=== |
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| − | This one has come up at 10/10. [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 15:24, August 7, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Not expected to develop due to less-than-ideal conditions. Side note, NOAA released their August forecast update a few days ago, calling for 19-25 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 majors. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 15:31, August 8, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Now near 0% The global models don't see much out of the Atlantic for the immediate future and put us into a temporary slumber for now, though the GFS has been hinting at something forming out of a cold front off the U.S. east coast in a week's time or so. Still too far to tell though. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 19:10, August 8, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Off the TWO. [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Jas (Anonymous 2.0)]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 02:32, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ===95L.INVEST=== |
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| − | ====AOI: South of Cabo Verde==== |
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| − | New Cabo Verde AOI. 10/20[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 00:19, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : 20/20. The global models don't seem to do much with this though. They do eventually show the possibility of a stronger storm coming further down the road, but that's a different storm from this one at least 10 days from now. However, even if this AOI doesn't form, this is still rather unnerving for the storms that could develop later on, as they could chew away at the shear and dry air over the Atlantic for the heart of the season to come. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:34, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Don't have high expectations for this wave developing, as it's not very well-defined at the surface and as Ryan mentioned not much model support. But this is yet another significant wave that is helping clear the MDR to make way for big storms. Late August - September is going to be scary. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:20, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====95L.INVEST==== |
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| − | An Invest per Tidbits.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 14:17, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : 40/50 now. This could actually become Josephine. [[User:Nickcoro|Nickcoro]] ([[User talk:Nickcoro|talk]]) 20:35, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Woah, this kicked up pretty fast...that being said, NHC says conditions are expected to become less favorable later this week, but if this can get to Josephine before that then we've got the earliest 10th named storm, as Jose in 2005 didn't come until August 22. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 01:55, August 10, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Up to 60/60. I'm a bit surprised the chances are this high now, but if Josephine comes from this, it might not be anything more than a weak name stealer. Still 10 days to go if Josephine wants to arrive before my birthday. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:22, August 10, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ==Retirements at a Glance== |
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| − | Because there is 3 named storms in this Basin in june so I'll set this up early. [[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 13:00, June 22, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ===Bill2903's Retirement Predictions=== |
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| − | Grades ('''<font color="Purple">Z</font>''', '''<font color="Indigo">F</font>''', '''<font color="Blue">E</font>''', '''<font color="Green">D</font>''', '''<font color="Yellow">C</font>''', '''<font color="Orange">B</font>''', '''<font color="red">A</font>''', '''<font color="Pink">S</font>''') |
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| − | Scale ('''<font color="Blue">TD/SD</font>''', '''<font color="cyan">TS/SS</font>''', '''<font color="ffffcc">C1</font>''', '''<font color="#ffe775">C2</font>''', '''<font color="ffc140">C3</font>''', '''<font color="ff8f19">C4</font>''', |
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| − | '''<font color="ff6060">C5</font>''') |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Arthur</font>''' - '''<font color="Yellow">C</font>''' - <font color="yellow">0% </font> - Strongest May storm since Alberto. I'm also impressed that Arthur was this strong in the middle of May. [[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 13:36, June 22, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Bertha</font>''' - '''<font color="Blue">E</font>''' - <font color="yellow">0% </font> - Weak but did 200 million dollars of damage and suprise formation. |
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| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Cristobal</font>''' - '''<font color="Orange">B</font>''' - <font color="yellow">1%</font> - The first June storm since 2017 And formed from the remnant of Amanda. What a good storm in June. |
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| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Dolly</font>''' - '''<font color="Green">D</font>''' - '''<font color="Yellow">0%</font>''' - The northernmost June system and the third earliest fourth named storm is enough for me to grant it a D. |
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| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Edouard</font>''' - '''<font color="Blue">E</font>''' - '''<font color="Yellow">0%</font>''' - Being the earliest 5th named storm is the only thing that save Edouard from F or Z. |
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| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Fay</font>''' - '''<font color="Yellow">C</font>''' - '''<font color="Yellow">0%</font>''' - A New Jersey landfall in July and formed earlier than Emily 2005.Fay really impressed me this year |
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| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Gonzalo</font>'''- '''<font color="Indigo">F</font>''' - '''<font color="Yellow">0%</font>''' - Pathetic storm that failed. |
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| − | |||
| − | {{clear}} |
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| − | |||
| − | === Chosen Wizard's 2020 Storm Name Retirement Chances - Atlantic Hurricane: === |
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| − | ''NINE STORMS BEFORE AUGUST...'' |
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| − | |||
| − | {{clear}} |
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| − | I'm coloring the storm names now based on their strength, so: |
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| − | '''<font color="green">TS, </font>''' |
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| − | '''<font color="orange">C1 & C2, </font>''' |
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| − | '''<font color="red">C3 & C4, </font>''' |
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| − | '''<font color="maroon">C5 (up to 199 mph), </font>''' |
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| − | '''<font color="black">200+ mph C5, </font>''' |
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| − | '''<font color="indigo">Subtropical Storm. </font>''' |
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| − | |||
| − | * '''<font color="green">Tropical Storm Arthur</font>''' - Nice May storm ('''''<u>AGAIN</u>'''''), and affected NC. It'll stay though. (0%) |
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| − | * '''<font color="green">Ugly Storm Bertha</font>''' - Staying. (1% for the 1 death) |
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| − | * '''<font color="green">Tropical Storm Cristobal</font>''' - Lasted for what seemed like weeks in June, went all the way up to Wisconsin, and may have even re-strengthened to a TS over land! Still staying for 2026. (1%) |
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| − | * '''<font color="green">Why Dolly, why?</font>''' - Chantal 2.0. Staying for 2026. (0%) |
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| − | * '''<font color="green">Tropical Storm Edouard</font>''' - Dolly 2.0. (0%) |
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| − | * '''<font color="green">Tropical Storm Fay</font>''' - Went to New Jersey and New York. (1%) |
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| − | * '''<font color="green">Tropical Storm Gonzalo</font>''' - Weakling did not do much, even to the Caribbean. Good. (0%) |
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| − | * '''<font color="orange">Hurricane Hanna</font>''' - Stole hurricane status from Gonzalo and drenched South Texas. I think that $395 million damage estimate is conservative. (10-20%) |
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| − | * '''<font color="green">Tropical Storm Isaias</font>''' - Living proof that the Atlantic basin wants to be like the East Pacific basin. (??%) |
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| − | [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|'''''<font color="sky blue">Chosen Wizard</font>''''']] ([[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|<font color="black">⛅ NERD</font>]]) ([https://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/IbAHAn1829tree <font color="black">Inputs</font>]) 14:33, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | {{clear}} |
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| − | |||
| − | === Bluecaner's Retirement Predictions === |
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| − | |||
| − | (Grades - Z F D C B A S SS) |
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| − | |||
| − | :Storm - Nickname - Retirement odds (description) - Bluecaner want (description) - Grade (description) |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Arthur</font>''' - '''<font color="Blue">Carolina Lover</font>''' - <font color="Purple">1%</font> - Impacts were very minimal - <font color="red">No</font> Arthur had minimal impacts, and the king should stay - '''<font color="cyan">A</font>''' Pretty strong for May, and was a cool storm overall |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Bertha</font>''' - '''<font color="Red">Surprise!</font>''' - <font color="cyan">6%</font> - Precursor caused some flooding in Florida, however that was it's precursor. It's only at 6% to recognize the damage - <font color="red">No</font> Bertha wasn't that bad - '''<font color="Yellow">C</font>''' Surprised us by even forming, and even reached 50 MPH winds. Arthur was a better May Storm, however. |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Cristobal</font>''' - '''<font color="Yellow">Amanda's True Power</font>''' - <font color="cyan">7%</font> - Caused some flooding in the Yucatan and the Gulf Coast, but they've been through worse - <font color="red">No</font> Cristobal hit Mexico and the damage along the gulf coast wasn't that bad - '''<font color="Green">B</font>''' Semi-Erratic and large system that had the brown ocean effect. However, it was a Moderate TS in June. |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Dolly</font>''' - '''<font color="Turquoise">Subtropical Depression Four</font>''' - <font color="Blue">0%</font> - Out to sea - <font color="red">No</font> Didn't do anything - '''<font color="Red">F</font>''' Name-stealing weak TS: I wanted an SD Peak. But it surprised us by even becoming a TS and going fully tropical. Still was a weak. I would have preferred and SD Peak. |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Edouard</font>''' - '''<font color="Red">Holy ****!</font>''' - <font color="Blue">0%</font> - Didn't have any affects - <font color="red">No</font> Didn't do anything - '''<font color="Orange">D</font>''' Name-stealing weak TS, but it broke a record. |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Fay</font>''' - '''<font color="Purple">Fayaway</font>''' - <font color="Green">11%</font> - Nothing Major, but killed 6 people and $400 million atm - <font color="red">No</font> - '''<font color="Yellow">C</font>''' Not the weakest for a TS forming north, but, eh. Also broke a record. |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Gonzalo</font>''' - '''<font color="Gray">Underperformer</font>''' - <font color="Purple">1%</font> - Minor effects in the Windwards - <font color="red">No</font> - Nothing serious '''<font color="Red">F</font>''' Could've been a C2, didn't get super close to C1. |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="#ffffcc">Hanna</font>''' - '''<font color="Orange">Hurricane #1</font>''' - <font color="Cyan">6%</font> - Serious effects where it hit, but nothing they can't handle and it hit a remote area - <font color="red">No</font> - Nothing worthy of retirement '''<font color="Green">B</font>''' Looked very nice for a C1, especially in July. |
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| − | |||
| − | - [[User:Bluecaner|<span style="color:blue;">'''Blue'''</span><span style="color:teal;">'''caner'''</span>]] ([[User talk:Bluecaner|talk]]) |
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| − | |||
| − | ===Nickcoro's Retirement Predictions=== |
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| − | '''Grading:<font color="maroon"> Z,</font><font color="Purple"> </font><font color="Indigo">F, </font><font color="red">D, </font><font color="ff6060">C, </font><font color="orange">B, </font><font color="#ffe775">A,</font><font color="Yellow"> </font><font color="Pink">S.</font>''' |
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| − | *'''<font color="cyan">Arthur</font>''' - '''<font color="orange">B</font>''' - Another Season with a preseason storm. Only brushed North Carolina with some rain and wind. Did everything an impressive storm in May could do. (0.1%) |
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| − | *'''<font color="cyan">Bertha</font>''' - '''<font color="ff6060">C</font>''' - Suprising formation, but also was rather weak and short-lived. Impacts in South Carolina and Florida were light. (2%) |
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| − | *'''<font color="cyan">Cristobal</font>''' - '''<font color="ff6060">C</font>''' - Rather strong system for early June. Impacts in Mexico and the gulf coast were minor, and the storm was a quite long lasting storm. (5%) |
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| − | *'''<font color="cyan">Dolly</font>''' - '''<font color="Indigo">F</font>''' - Weak fishspinner. Suprised us first with its formation very far north, then its upgrade to TS. Impacts were non-existent, and the storm barely reached TS, but its irregularites put it at a high end F. (0%) |
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| − | *'''<font color="cyan">Edouard</font>''' - '''<font color="red">D </font>'''- Very weak. However, it was the earliest E named storm on record, and had a suprising formation. Impacts in Bermuda were minimal. (0.1%) |
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| − | *'''<font color="cyan">Fay</font>''' - '''<font color="ff6060">C</font>''' - Moderate strengh TS that caused minor to moderate impact in the Northeast US, the first storm to do so since 2012. Impacts in the US were rather minor however, so retirement is unlikely. Fay was also the earliest F named storm on record, beating 2005 by over a week. All of this combines for a C. (10%) |
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| − | *'''<font color="cyan">Gonzalo</font>''' - '''<font color="red">D</font>''' - Had a great potential to be something bigger, but got destroyed by dry air. A huge letdown, but a huge relief for the islands it could have hit. It was also the earliest G named storm. Impacts were minimal. (0.5%) |
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| − | *<font color="#ffffcc">'''Hanna'''</font> - '''<font color="orange">B</font>''' - Was expected to be weak, but ended up rapidly becoming a hurricane, the first one of the season, and striking Texas at peak intesity. It was the earliest H named storm in the basin, but significant damages and at least 1 death keep it from a higher rating. (25%) |
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| − | *<font color="#ffffcc">'''Isaias'''</font> - '''<font color="ff6060">C</font>''' - Storm was expected to be a weaker, then stronger, than it ended up being. The storm quickly intesified before landfall and became a devastating storm in the Carolinas. The Northeast also got significant wind, tornado, and flooding damage. With the potential for over $1 billion in damages, the I curse seems to have lived on, and this storm has a shot at getting retired. Also the earliest I named storm. (45%) |
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| − | *<font color="#5ebaff">'''Ten'''</font> - '''<font color="Indigo">F</font>''' - Looks like the Atlantic tried to copy the East Pacific. Suprising formation though. (N/A%) |
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| − | [[User:Nickcoro|Nickcoro]] ([[User talk:Nickcoro|talk]]) 16:12, June 25, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ===Beatissima's Retirement Predictions=== |
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| − | *TS Arthur - 0% |
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| − | *TS Bertha - 2% |
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| − | *TS Cristobal - 10% |
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| − | *TS Dolly - 0% |
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| − | *TS Edouard - 0% |
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| − | *TS Fay - 5% |
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| − | *TS Gonzalo - 0% |
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| − | *C1 Hanna - 5% |
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| − | *C1 Isaias - TBD |
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| − | *TD Ten-L - N/A |
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| − | [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 01:42, June 26, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ===Andrew's Predictions=== |
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| − | To keep things simple, I will not be posting grades. However, with four named storms as of July 4, I will give my initial percentages: |
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| − | *'''Arthur''' - 1% - Arthur did cause some notable flooding in Florida and North Carolina, in addition to delaying the launch of some Starlink satellites. However, with only minimal damage, I would be surprised if Arthur was retired. |
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| − | *'''Bertha''' - 5% - For such a quick and unexpected system, $200 million (2020 USD) in losses and one fatality is quite impactful. In addition, Bertha caused even greater flooding problems especially in Florida, not to mention delaying the Crew Dragon Demo-2 launch. Nevertheless, most of these impacts occurred when Bertha was not tropical, and retirement is also a longshot. |
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| − | *'''Cristobal''' - 10% - Flooding in Mexico and Central America was actually quite severe. Two feet of rain is no laughing matter, and crop damages were not ignorable. Likewise, the Gulf Coast saw some strong winds and tornadoes, and the Upper Midwest had quite the experience! Record high rainfall totals in Minnesota, Wisconsinites like myself seeing a tropical cyclone pass over our state for the first time ever, and strong winds elsewhere! However, four fatalities and $343 million (2020 USD) is still minor compared to what the Atlantic has endured in recent years. |
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| − | *'''Dolly''' - 0% - Although Dolly did affect some landmasses (e.g. New England), the lack of impact reports almost guarantees that this name will be staying. |
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| − | |||
| − | [[User:Andrew444|<span class="button">Andrew</span>]][[User talk:Andrew444|<span class="button">Talk To Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/Andrew444|<span class="button">Contribs</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Andrew444|<span class="button">Mail Me</span>]] 04:02, July 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ===Steve's Retirement Predictions=== |
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| − | Once I find the time and motivation I might expand this with tabs, future outlook, etc. |
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| − | |||
| − | <u>'''Intensity colors (SSHWS, 1-min winds):'''</u> <font color="#5ebaff">'''TD/SD (≤35 mph, ≤30 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#00faf4">'''Weak TS/SS (40-50 mph, 35-45 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ccffff">'''Strong TS/SS (ALWAYS USED REGARDLESS OF BASIN) (60-70 mph, 50-60 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ffffcc">'''C1 (75-90 mph, 65-80 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ffe775">'''C2 (100-110 mph, 85-95 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ffc140">'''C3 (115-125 mph, 100-110 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ff8f20">'''C4 (130-155 mph, 115-135 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ff6060">'''C5 (160-180 mph, 140-155 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#992040">'''BEAST MODE (185+ mph, 160+ knots)'''</font> |
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| − | |||
| − | <u>'''Retirement percentage colors:'''</u> <font color="#AAA">'''0%''' or '''N/A'''</font>; <font color="#95A">'''0.000...1-0.4%'''</font>, <font color="#60A">'''0.5-0.9%'''</font>, <font color="#30A">'''1-4%'''</font>, <font color="#00A">'''5%-9%'''</font>, <font color="#05A">'''10-14%'''</font>, <font color="#0AA">'''15-19%'''</font>, <font color="#0A5">'''20-24%'''</font>, <font color="#0A0">'''25-29%'''</font>, <font color="#3B0">'''30-34%'''</font>, <font color="#6C0">'''35-39%'''</font>, <font color="#9D0">'''40-44%'''</font>, <font color="#CE0">'''45-49%'''</font>, <font color="#FF0">'''50%'''</font>, <font color="#FC0">'''51-54%'''</font>, <font color="#F90">'''55-59%'''</font>, <font color="#F60">'''60-64%'''</font>, <font color="#F30">'''65-69%'''</font>, <font color="#F00">'''70-74%'''</font>, <font color="#D00">'''75-79%'''</font>, <font color="#B00">'''80-84%'''</font>, <font color="#900">'''85-89%'''</font>, <font color="#700">'''90-94%'''</font>, <font color="#500">'''95-98%'''</font>, <font color="#300">'''99-99.999...%'''</font>; <font color="#100">'''100%'''</font>; <font color="#000">'''TBA''' (active storms only)</font> |
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| − | |||
| − | <u>'''Grading colors:'''</u> <font color="gold">'''SSS'''</font>, <font color="silver">'''SS'''</font>, <font color="bronze">'''S'''</font>, <font color="#50F">'''A+'''</font>, <font color="#00F">'''A'''</font>, <font color="#05F">'''A-'''</font>, <font color="#0AF">'''B+'''</font>, <font color="#0FF">'''B'''</font>, <font color="#0FA">'''B-'''</font>, <font color="#0F5">'''C+'''</font>, <font color="#0F0">'''C'''</font>, <font color="#5F0">'''C-'''</font>, <font color="#AF0">'''D+'''</font>, <font color="#FF0">'''D'''</font>, <font color="#FA0">'''D-'''</font>, <font color="#F50">'''E'''</font>, <font color="#F00">'''F'''</font>, <font color="#A00">'''F-'''</font>, <font color="#500">'''Z'''</font>, <font color="#000">'''🤦🏻♂️'''</font>, <font color="#000">'''TBA''' (active storms only)</font> |
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| − | ---- |
||
| − | PTCs are not included. TDs are included for grading purposes only. |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#ccffff">'''Arthur'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#95A">'''0.1%'''</font> - Caused some notable impacts to parts of the southeast (namely Florida and North Carolina), but only minimal damage was reported. |
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| − | **Grading: <font color="#0F0">'''C'''</font> - A nice pre-season storm, became a strong TS as well. |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#00faf4">'''Bertha'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#00A">'''5%'''</font> - Very small chance for the $200 million and 1 death it caused. Notably, it also postponed the Crew Dragon Demo-2 launch by 3 days. |
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| − | **Grading: <font color="#AF0">'''D+'''</font> - The second pre-season storm this year, formed quite unexpectedly and quickly intensified to 50 mph right before landfall. It really tried not to fail, but was still very short-lived nonetheless. |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#ccffff">'''Cristobal'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#0A5">'''20%'''</font> - Formed from the remnants of Amanda, bringing significant impacts to Central America and Mexico. Later moved up to make landfall on the Gulf Coast causing further impacts. Strangely was still at least somewhat well-defined when it was up near Wisconsin. $675 million and 5 deaths gives it a small chance, but very unlikely to be considered. |
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| − | **Grading: <font color="#0F0">'''C'''</font> - Became a strong TS and was relatively long-lived for an early June storm. Also became the earliest third named storm on record. |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#00faf4">'''Dolly'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#AAA">'''0%'''</font> - Why would this fishspinner be retired? |
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| − | **Grading: <font color="#A00">'''F-'''</font> - A pathetic steal of a name. Though it did reach 45 mph. |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#00faf4">'''Edouard'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#95A">'''0.0001%'''</font> - Except for very minor Bermuda impacts, see you in 2026, fishspinner. |
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| − | **Grading: <font color="#F50">'''E'''</font> - Another name stealer, but like Dolly, reached 45 mph (mostly due to baroclinic forcing). Got itself named almost at the last minute after struggling as a TD for a couple days. Also became the earliest 5th storm ever, increasing its grade. |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#ccffff">'''Fay'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#00A">'''8%'''</font> - 6 people were killed by this storm as of this writing, and the damage toll is pretty significant, at $400 million. Impacts are too low for retirement though, but the tiny chance still exists. |
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| − | **Grading: <font color="#AF0">'''D+'''</font> - Not a "Fayl", since it reached 60 mph and struck land. Further credit for being the earliest 6th named storm on record, beating Franklin from 2005 by 12 days. |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#ccffff">'''Gonzalo'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#95A">'''0.01%'''</font> - Died before it could do much harm to the Antilles. |
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| − | **Grading: <font color="#FA0">'''D-'''</font> - Performed below expectations, with forecasts often calling for a hurricane, but I guess that's a plus due to the land that was in its path. |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#ffffcc">'''Hanna'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#0AA">'''15%'''</font> - Damages in parts of southern Texas might have been severe or even catastrophic. Currently >$500 million in damages has been reported and 5 deaths, but it likely isn't enough for retirement. |
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| − | **Grading: <font color="#0FA">'''B-'''</font> - Nice job becoming the first hurricane of the season (and almost becoming a C2), it's a shame you had to make landfall and harm people though... |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#ffffcc">'''Isaias'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#000">'''TBA'''</font> - I'm gonna wait until the damage totals are released. With 13 deaths so far, and damages potentially very high, this is very likely to have a greater chance of retirement than Cristobal and Hanna. |
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| − | **Grading: <font color="#0F5">'''C+'''</font> - Notably, this survived Hispaniola like it was nothing, and was a bit of a strange storm to track in general. But I hesitate to give this any higher than the Cs due to all the land it affected. |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#5ebaff">'''Ten'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#AAA">'''N/A'''</font> |
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| − | **Grading: <font color="#F00">'''F'''</font> - Unexpected formation and might have even had a brief period of TS-force winds without stealing a name, so I'll give it some credit for that. |
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| − | |||
| − | ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev|<span style="color:#00F;">Ste</span>]][[User:StevDev|<span style="color:#F00;">ve 🎆</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Happy</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">Independence Day!</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">🇺🇸</span>]] 05:09, July 4, 2020 (UTC) (last updated 06:04, August 6, 2020 (UTC)) |
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| − | |||
| − | ===Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions=== |
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| − | |||
| − | Although nothing merits retirement in the Atlantic so far, I'll still make my list: |
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| − | |||
| − | *Arthur - 1% - Caused some minor impacts in North Carolina, but it won't cut for retirement. Also extended the pre-season record from 5 years to 6. |
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| − | |||
| − | *Bertha - 7% - With 200 million dollars in flood damage to South Carolina and a death, it gets more credit than Arthur, but it still won't be enough for retirement. Also it made for the 3rd time in the past 8 years to have two pre-season storms. |
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| − | |||
| − | *Cristobal - 20% - Earliest 3rd storm, slightly edging out 2016's Colin, and with somewhat more damage than Bertha (which recently got buffed to 675 million), but still, it likely won't cut for retirement. |
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| − | |||
| − | *Dolly - 0% - First fish of the year, so see you in 2026. |
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| − | |||
| − | *Edouard - 0% - Beat Emily '05 for the earliest 5th storm record, but like Dolly, a fish is a fish. |
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| − | |||
| − | *Fay - 10% - Like Edouard and Cristobal, it beat the record for the earliest storm of it's number, but damage wasn't too bad, around 400 million, and the death toll was low. Still, it gets credit for the impacts. |
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| − | *Gonzalo - 2% - Another earliest storm record, 2 days ahead of 2005's Gert, but impacts to the lessers probably won't be too bad. |
||
| − | *Hanna - 18% - Yet again, Hanna was a record-earliest storm of its number, beating Harvey of 2005 by over a week (August 3), and caused 5 deaths with around 500 million estimated in flood damage to Texas and Mexico. This percentage is still preliminary since it could go higher, but unless the final totals are really severe, I'm not sold on retirement from Hanna, as some similar past storms like Alex '10 and Dolly '08 were snubbed for over a billion each. |
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| − | *Isaias - ?? - Earliest 9th storm, beating out 2005's Irene, and hit Hispaniola too, hopefully flooding wasn't too severe there. Now a hurricane, hit the Bahamas, and ran up the U.S. east coast and into Canada, all while killing at least 10 people and doing some damage too. However, I can't put a percent on Isaias until final totals come out. |
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| − | It looks like the Atlantic is proving us really wrong so far in 2020, which not only could rival 2005's total storm count at this rate but could also be the first time ever in which 5 consecutive Atlantic seasons are above-normal (unless the ACE totals stay low). El Nino will come again at some point, but because it failed to materialize in 2018 or 2019, it may not come again until next year or 2022. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 23:50, July 12, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ==Atlantic hurricane reanalysis== |
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| − | Because this topic is not related to the current Atlantic hurricane season, I have instead posted it on the Hurricanes Talk forum. The page has not been utilized in a few years, and I recommend checking it out. Anyways, [[Forum:Hurricane Talk#Atlantic hurricane reanalysis results|AOML just completed a reanalysis of the 1961 to 1965 seasons]]. In summary, 1961 lost a major record, the storms of 1962 and 1964 were ''weaker'' than originally estimated, the systems of 1963 were '''stronger''' than previously thought, and 1965 gained some tropical storms. [[User:Andrew444|<span class="button">Andrew</span>]][[User talk:Andrew444|<span class="button">Talk To Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/Andrew444|<span class="button">Contribs</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Andrew444|<span class="button">Mail Me</span>]] 20:23, January 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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Latest revision as of 21:57, 8 February 2022
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Other Basin Talkpages (2020): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian |