Changes: Forum:2020 Atlantic hurricane season

Revision as of 16:48, 11 August 2020

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This is the forum page for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

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Other Basin Talkpages (2020): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

Future start

We've still got a little over a month and a half until 2020 comes, but since the Atlantic is pretty dead right now, 2019 will probably be over soon enough without much else. I'm going to make an early prediction on 2020's activity, might change this later on but for now I'm going to predict 8-14 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes, 1-3 majors and (hopefully) no category 5's for the first time since 2015. Maybe I'm just wanting to be conservative here...but the Atlantic can almost never handle five consecutive active seasons without some sort of slowdown from El Nino or something like that, and I'd be surprised if the Atlantic produces another very active season in 2020. Also, added the betting pools, with some changes. Ryan 1000 03:31, November 14, 2019 (UTC)

Hello, I'm Mike, a new user from Portland, Oregon with an interest in meterology. I have been tracking hurricanes since the beginning of 2018 and have been fascinated by their powerful forces ever since. I personally don't think the Atlantic would be able to handle five active seasons in a row. In addition to that, I think a strong El Nino, that would develop in the winter of 2020-21, would blanket the Atlantic, leading to a less than active season, finishing pretty early. I have currently gone with 11-4-1, with an ACE of 64, however this is subject to change. The major hurricane would be a Category 4, no landfall. Very easy on the eyes, won't harm a fly. Would be responsible for about 60% of the ACE this season, I've predicted this would be roughly around the E-named storm. I would think only one name would get retired, and that would be maybe a storm in September, a Category 2 maybe, that has solely Caribbean/Gulf impacts. This is all subject to change, however. Aquaria485 (talk) 17:11, November 14, 2019 (UTC)

I have truly been surprised by what the Atlantic has managed to achieve in the past few years. For the record, according to the NOAA, 2016-2019 was only the second time on record four consecutive Atlantic hurricane seasons were above normal (after 1998-2001). Ryan and Mike, fortunately, CSU and TSR seem to agree with you. Both have stated that neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail next summer, and TSR is explicitly forecasting a near-average season. That being said, 2005, the most active Atlantic hurricane season ever, also occurred under neutral conditions. Although I believe January is too early to make an accurate prediction, I think 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes will form this year in the Atlantic. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 23:48, January 1, 2020 (UTC)

I'm not sure what to make of this year. Might be active or near-average, we'll see. However the Atlantic almost can never handle 5 active seasons in a row. I believe something along the lines of 12-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors is likely. 2019 and 2018 exceeded initial expectations after all. Would not be too surprised if another very notable season lies ahead. ~ Steve 🎉 Happy 2020!🎆 01:27, January 2, 2020 (UTC)

i think there could be 14-19 named storms, 4-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 majors due to la nĩna. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 06:30, March 19, 2020 (UTC)

If the COVID-19 pandemic hasn't delayed anything, CSU and TSR forecasts should be released next week: CSU on April 2, TSR April 5 or later going by past years. To recap, TSR called for 15 TS, 7 HU, and 4 MH, i.e. slightly above-average, in December. Recent ENSO predictions show neutral conditions through September/October (though this is still highly uncertain). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:32, March 29, 2020 (UTC)

CSU forecasting a nearly hyperactive season with 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes,ACE:150 due to the transition from warm phase to cool neutral or even weak La Nĩna.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:17, April 2, 2020 (UTC)

It would be terrible to have a hyperactive season this year, especially while the coronavirus pandemic (which might continue through the peak of the hurricane season) is already wrecking havoc on emergency services. 2020 would truly go down in history as one of the most devastating post-WWII years if a re-Katrina or a repeat of the infamous 2017 storms occurs this year. ~ Steve 🙏🏻 Praying for the world to recover from coronavirus.📧 20:34, April 3, 2020 (UTC)

I forgot to mentioned that CSU also warned that the Caribbean and the U.S coastline has significantly higher chance of getting a Major Hurricane landfall.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 06:59, April 4, 2020 (UTC)

TSR's April update is 16/8/3. Interestingly, they expect less major hurricanes than they did in December, where they called for 4 majors (though this update claims they said 3 earlier??). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:58, April 8, 2020 (UTC)

At least the ACE forecast is more accurate. A 4 major hurricanes season can't have ACE of 105.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 10:09, April 8, 2020 (UTC)

Unless we are looking at a 2019 PHS type thing. -- JavaHurricane 11:40, April 8, 2020 (UTC)

I'm starting to think that 2020 could be the WORST YEAR for America's Hospitals because of the ongoing COVID-19 situation and the upcoming above average hurricane season.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 07:53, April 14, 2020 (UTC)

University of Arizona release their forecast: 16-22 named storms, 8-12 Hurricanes and 4-6 Major Hurricanes with ACE between 123-203.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:42, April 15, 2020 (UTC)

NCSU forecast (hyperactive season ahead): 18-22 named storms, 8-11 Hurricanes and 3-5 Major hurricanes (yikes). They're expecting: 6-10 named storms, 2-5 Hurricanes and 1-2 Major Hurricanes in the gulf alone !ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:09, April 17, 2020 (UTC)

If this comes to fruition 2020 might be the most active season since 2005... possibly more active than even the 2010-12 seasons and rivaling 1933. Unfortunately that means some very costly hurricanes similar to Irma, Harvey, Maria, Sandy, or Katrina might be on the cards. Would be truly terrible to see a tropical cyclone disaster happen while the pandemic is still ongoing. ~ Steve 🙏🏻 Praying for the world to recover from coronavirus.📧 17:11, April 18, 2020 (UTC)

this season is looking so scary, can't help myself from thinking about the worst case scenario.GentleEarthquake 20:34, April 24, 2020 (UTC)

But let's hope that the thermohaline circulation won't randomly weakened like back in 2013.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:46, April 26, 2020 (UTC)

La Nĩna is coming soon ! ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 04:29, May 3, 2020 (UTC)

NOAA forecasted: 13-19 named storms, 6-10 Hurricanes and 3-6 Major hurricanes.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 15:15, May 21, 2020 (UTC)

All future forecast links should go in the section below. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 01:26, May 26, 2020 (UTC)

It is now officially hurricane season in the Atlantic! I am excited for the six months ahead, and I hope this year will not be too destructive! Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 02:18, June 1, 2020 (UTC)

Seasonal forecasts

Agency	Date of release	Named storms forecast	Hurricanes forecast	Major hurricanes forecast	Accumulated cyclone energy forecast
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)	December 19, 2019	15	7	4	105
Colorado State University (CSU)	April 2, 2020	16	8	4	150
TSR	April 7, 2020	16	8	3	130
University of Arizona	April 13, 2020	19	10	5	163
The Weather Channel	April 16, 2020	18	9	4	N/A
North Carolina State University	April 17, 2020	18-22	8-11	3-5	N/A
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico) (in Spanish)	May 20, 2020	15-19	7-9	3-4	N/A
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)	May 21, 2020	13-19	6-10	3-6	110% to 190% of Atlantic median (102-176)
TSR	May 28, 2020	17	8	3	135
CSU	June 4, 2020	19	9	4	160
University of Arizona	June 12, 2020	17	11	4	166
CSU	July 7,2020	20	9	4	160
TSR	July 7,2020	18	8	4	137
TWC	July 16,2020	20	8	4	N/A
Accuweather	July 30,2020	20-24	9-11	4-6	170-200
CSU	August 5,2020	24	12	5	200
TSR	August 5,2020	24	10	4	166
NOAA	August 6,2020	19-25	7-11	3-6	140% to 230% of Atlantic median (130-213)

After a conversation I had with Steve, I am introducing a new section to all basins in which seasonal forecasts are issued. I believe that seasonal forecasts are a crucial resource to gain a better appreciation of how active a tropical cyclone season may be. In addition, Hurricanes Wiki has never had a separate section for these predictors (until now), and it can be frustrating to create new sections every single time a new forecast is released. I hope the seasonal forecasts section can be used not just in 2020, but in the years to come.

In short, whenever an agency issues a new forecast, simply add it to the bottom row of the above table. Be sure to include the link to the forecast, as well as any major information (e.g. date of release, named storms predicted). If a forecast is written in a language besides English, please indicate this next to the agency name. Please let me know on my wall if you have any further questions. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 01:26, May 26, 2020 (UTC)

July

09L.ISAIAS

AOI: Emerging from Africa

The atlantic refuses to let up with more potential activity on the way. Currently 0/20. Nickcoro (talk) 18:13, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Probably won't develop until it reaches the area where Gonzalo is currently at. Is it possible that the "I" name will come before the end of this month? It's like the Atlantic is really trying hard to reach the Greek letters this year... ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 20:14, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

Atlantic is in a hurry this year... hopefully this won't mark a return for the "I" curse... Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 23:11, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

In the latest run of the European model (which is the most accurate in this year so far I think) show that this system may intensify into a Major and may landfall on the Bahamas.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:43, July 23, 2020 (UTC)

The Euro is traditionally among the best performing of the models, though they have made some misses in the past. In any instance, this wave was shown on some previous runs on Tidbits to follow in Gonzalo's footsteps but head further north and be considerably strong too. Long way down the road, but something to watch out for. Ryan 1000 05:13, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

Now 0/40. Ryan 1000 18:02, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

92L.INVEST

Looks like it already got invested. And it's ALREADY time to remind you to... Be wa re the I of the st or m !!!!!!! I didn't expect I would have to say this until...like...late August or even September, but here we are. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 19:40, July 24, 2020 (UTC)

I just noticed that there are 4 landfalls on the US this year so far. Hanna is the 5th one .ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 02:09, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Actually Arthur slightly missed a landfall on the NC coast, so we've had three so far, which were Bertha, Cristobal, and Fay. Hanna would be the 4th (unless you count Douglas in the EPac, provided he hits Hawaii in a few days). Still not sure what to think of 92L down the road, the Euro remains aggressive on this but the GFS doesn't show too much. Furthermore, both models take this running into Hispaniola with their latest runs down the road, and if that happens then Isaias-to-be might not make it to the U.S. as a strong system, if at all. But, we've still got a long way to go. Ryan 1000 05:17, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 10/60. The runs on Tidbits follow the recent guidance of the global models and take it towards a landfall in Hispaniola, but if it takes the southern end of some of the projected paths then it might swing into the gulf way down the road. Ryan 1000 14:30, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

20/70. The latest runs of the GFS ensembles on tidbits take this on a more north-northwesterly turn before reaching the antilles and possibly threatening New England down the road...still a long ways out to tell, but it's unnerving nonetheless. We've already got a record 8 named storms before August, and if this becomes Isaias within the next 6 days (and it already has a 70% chance of forming within the next 5), then this would beat 2005's Irene by more than a week (August 7) for the earliest 9th named storm. Ryan 1000 18:24, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Now 50/80. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 23:52, July 25, 2020 (UTC)

Isaias debut is coming soon.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 01:22, July 26, 2020 (UTC)

Man, this invest is getting more and more nerve-racking, with the latest runs of the GFS making this a possible repeat of Hugo down the road, and the models are increasingly confident that this will be a hurricane sometime in the next 5 days...behave, 92L. Ryan 1000 04:56, July 26, 2020 (UTC)

Be wa re the I of the st or m !!!!!!! This is getting really concerning, I agree. Hopefully our fears won't come to fruition down the line. It's really early in the year to see something this threatening, which makes the peak of the season in late August to September even more frightening... Also, it's now 60/90, which makes this almost certain to form and become the earliest "I" storm ever, beating Irene from 2005, and the record 9th storm before August. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 05:55, July 26, 2020 (UTC)

70/90, should be a TD by around Tuesday. The potential threat to the Greater Antilles and U.S. east coast will be no laughing matter. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 22:07, July 26, 2020 (UTC)

80/90. 09L is coming.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:12, July 27, 2020 (UTC)

More of the model runs are turning 92L northeast down the road, which would be good news for the U.S. eastern seaboard, but Atlantic Canada could eventually be hit. Ryan 1000 04:21, July 27, 2020 (UTC)

Decreased to 70/80. Might not reach TS strength until right when it reaches the Antilles, but that would be worse news for the U.S, as the CMC ensembles now make this a repeat of Irene or Floyd, or it could be a bit weaker like Bertha '96. Either way, if this takes a little longer to develop, the U.S. may have to wach out, because the later this forms, the less likely it is to recurve northeast and out to sea. Ryan 1000 19:31, July 27, 2020 (UTC)

Well, this has been organizing a bit slower than I expected. Back up to 80/90 though. I expect a TD tomorrow or so, and it's certainly going to beat Irene from 2005's record when it becomes named. This better develop soon - I prefer a weaker version of Earl (2010) than a destructive East Coast landfall. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 05:42, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

The NHC said that this system is producing winds near tropical-storm-force but because of the disorganize look of this system, 92L is still not a TD.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:09, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine

NHC will be initiating advisories soon on PTC Nine, the first PTC this year. Nickcoro (talk) 14:40, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

1st Advisory of this system has been issued.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 15:04, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

I have doubts if this makes it past Hispaniola.--Isaac829 E-Mail 15:09, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

While PTC 9 is expected to miss Hispaniola to the north as of now, wind shear is pretty rough in front of this system, which may weaken or kill it before it becomes anything strong. NHC expects the shear to be very strong by around 48 hours when it nears Hispaniola. Ryan 1000 17:29, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

Yeah, the center will probably pass just to the north, enough for it to not be killed by the island's terrain. The PTC currently has winds of 40 mph and a pressure of 1007 mbar, with chances of formation being 90/90. The Antilles are expected to receive impacts from to-be Isaias tomorrow and Thursday. The forecast cone currently predicts a TS landfall in Florida, however it's really uncertain that far out as it does not have a well-defined center yet. In the worst-case scenario, it might ride up the eastern seaboard as a weak hurricane. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 22:39, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

Actually...considering I said "as of now" on the track above, this storm is heading farther west than it was earlier forecast since it still hasn't become Isaias yet, and now is expected to move directly over Hispaniola, which would kill any chance of this forming into a TS. But the longer it remains a PTC, the longer it will head west, so...worst-case scenario, it could reach the favorable western Caribbean instead of ride up the east coast. But the wind shear over the MDR is just so hostile right now, heck some areas northwest of this PTC currently have up to FIFTY knots of shear, so either way, this is gonna struggle for a bit, if it ever becomes named. Ryan 1000 05:54, July 29, 2020 (UTC)

I don't think it'll die out as fast as Gonzalo did. That potential cyclone is huuuuuuuge (TheMasterBait96 (talk) 01:09, July 30, 2020 (UTC))

Tropical Storm Isaias

I guess I have been butchering the pronunciation the whole time. Thank you NHC for the heads up.--Isaac829 E-Mail 03:04, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Isaias is a tricky name to pronounce.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:39, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Isaias is a bit big for a tropical storm (though most of the thunderstorm activity is displaced to the northeast due to the shear), but a landfall over Hispaniola will probably wear him down quite a bit, maybe not to dissipation like it did to Emily in 2011 but it will take its toll on the storm nonetheless. The GFS and CMC ensembles on Tidbits are currently quite divided on where Isaias will end up, the GFS takes him on a more northward track and recurves him to the northeast before hitting the east coast of Florida, which would be a better scenario, but the CMC ensembles bring Isaias further west, passing south of Cuba after hitting Hispaniola and swinging into the GOM to hit Florida's west coast. That wouldn't be good, considering how strong Isaias could get in the more favorable environment over there. Hopefully the former materializes. Ryan 1000 05:21, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

It has arrived, the earliest "I" named storm on record and the first time 9 named storms have ever formed before August. Be wa re the I of the st or m !!!!!!! The Atlantic really is vying to rival 2005 in total storms this year... in fact, I might be surprised if this year doesn't exhaust the list or make it to the Greek letters. This has indeed been a pretty big system, and impacts throughout the Greater Antilles could be quite significant. Hopefully Hispaniola seriously ruins this system so it won't be much of a threat to the U.S. But even if it doesn't, land interaction should still halt much of its attempts at intensification. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 05:55, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

I see PTC Nine finally became Isaias. Looks like this'll be another strong-ish tropical storm, that seems like all we're getting this season. YellowSkarmory (talk) 07:45, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 60mph.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 10:15, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Forecast to reach 70 mph once it gets out of Hispaniola, despite the displaced convection (which, to be fair, has slightly improved overnight though). Not gonna lie, I must say that the NHC is surprisingly bullish about Isaias, considering they are usually conservative in their forecasts. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:28, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Imagine if this system become an ugly C2 like 1998 Earl.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:46, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

This is one of the largest Caribbean tropical storms I've ever seen in terms of wind field. Thankfully this has a low chance of becoming a hurricane in the near future, or else things would get nastier than they are right now (with the flooding in Puerto Rico). Chosen Wizard (⛅ NERD) (Inputs) 14:26, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

It usually takes longer for larger storms to organize, so Isaias won't get hurricane strength unless he develops a more compact core in the coming days, but with a landfall in Hispaniola imminent later today, that's not as likely. Isaias is big enough to survive crossing the island, but it will probably get worn down enough to prevent him from becoming too strong afterwards, plus the NHC's forecast is more closely following the GFS model runs than the CMC's, so even if Isaias does later become a hurricane, it'll be heading out to sea by that point. As a side note, with Isaias forming, 2020 now ties 2005 for the most tropical storms to form in July on record, with 5, but because most of the storms we've had thus far were weak and short-lived, except for maybe Hanna, the ACE for the number of storms we've had thus far isn't very high. But, we still have the heart of the season to go, so that could change. Ryan 1000 15:11, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Landfall in Dominican Republic

Made landfall a short while ago as a 60 mph storm. The winds haven't weakened yet but the thunderstorm action is still pushing to the northeast of the center. NHC suggests that Isaias could have it's center reform further north sometime soon, which could disrupt the possibility of this becoming a hurricane even more, but that's not out of the question. Ryan 1000 18:33, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

The NHC 5 pm advisory is now saying its expected to become a hurricane by Friday night. That's tropical weather for ya. Char (talk) 22:07, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Hurricane Isaias

New update: Isaias rapidly intensifies and become the 2nd hurricane of the season with winds of 80mph. I think it may become a disorganized C2 like Earl 1998.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:50, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Will Isaias become another retired name storm ? We'll see soon.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:56, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Why do I get the feeling this one is going to RI into this season's first major? Beatissima (talk) 04:16, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Isaias just shrugged off Hispaniola like it was nothing... um, what?!?!? --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 04:20, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Well, that's new...a tropical storm survivng not only strong shear but not even weakening at all after crossing the whole of Hispaniola to become a hurricane shortly after leaving the mountainous island. But, I guess there's a first for everything in the tropics...anyways, Isaias is expected to peak as an 85 mph hurricane before turning northeast and clipping at NC's Outer Banks; however, the latest satellite imagery of Isaias is quite nerve-racking...it looks like Isaias is shedding the outer convection that made him so large and which held back his intensity earlier, and is instead developing a smaller, more tightly compact core just north of Haiti. If Isaias explodes in that small core, then this could rapidly intensify and pull something similar to Irene for the east coast...behave, Isaias... Ryan 1000 05:04, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Well I certainly did not expect a hurricane so soon, especially with the crossing of Hispaniola. The I curse seems to be fulfilling yet again this year. Memories of Irene are flooding back... don't become a major please. Be wa re the I of the st or m !!!!!!! ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:27, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Yikes. This is worrying me now, really hope this doesn't become a major. I don't think I'll have major effects from this as I'm inland a bit, but still could be bad. YellowSkarmory (talk) 11:44, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

I assume you left the above comment, YellowSkarmory, but you forgot to sign it. Anyways, the forecast now calls for Isaias to become a 100 mph storm before weakening to a cat 1 when he clips the NC Outer Banks, but if Isaias explodes in his little core of thunderstorms, he might even have an outside shot to become the first major of the year, if the shear doesn't impede him as much. After all, Isaias survived very strong shear and a landfall across Hispaniola as a tropical storm before he became a hurricane. Ryan 1000 13:13, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Did I really forget? Oops. Anyway, Isaias is currently at 80 mph with a pressure of 990 mb. YellowSkarmory (talk) 13:19, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 75mph now .ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:59, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Whelp, Isaias is a strange storm, fittingly to its strange name. ~ Bluecaner (talk 16:26, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Yeah, it is especially strange for surviving Hispaniola like it was nothing. Currently, the intensity is 75 mph/991 mbar, but it is becoming better organized again. Hurricane warnings throughout the Bahamas, tropical storm warnings and a hurricane watch for the Florida coast. Forecast peak lowered to 90 mph, but I still expect a C2. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 19:49, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 80mph again.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:16, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Apparently the eyewall is closed now. Beatissima (talk) 02:30, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Some of the thunderstorm activity died down lately, and Isaias is no longer forecast to become a cat 2, but unfortunately the track has shifted farther west and he is now forecast to possibly make landfall on the east coast of Florida as a category 1 storm. Preparations better be underway. Ryan 1000 05:40, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

It's actually a bit stronger now - 85 mph/988 mbar. It seems like this might skirt Florida like Matthew did, but there's a good chance of landfall. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:28, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

I dunno, the latest satellite imagery for Isaias shows weakening thunderstorm convection...he's really struggling to hold on as a hurricane, unless there's a big blowup of convection near the center soon, Isaias may weaken to a tropical storm before reaching Florida. He's apparently struggling with some dry air. Ryan 1000 15:36, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Man, Isaias looks like he's just vanishing away as satellite imagery goes on. Down to 75 mph/990 mbars, but given that most of the convection has fallen away due to increased dry air over the storm, this might be downgraded to a tropical storm soon. Ryan 1000 18:21, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Does not look like a hurricane to me, but the winds are still strong enough I guess. YellowSkarmory (talk) 19:30, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaias (2nd time)

Isaias went down to a TS a few hours ago. Beatissima (talk) 22:53, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

NHC expects him to regain hurricane strength before making landfall on Florida's east coast, but Isaias is still struggling to effectively organize due to the dry, stable air surrounding him and he has slowed down considerably too. Ryan 1000 05:14, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 65mph.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:26, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

Isaias' satellite appearance appears to be a little better today despite the weakening. It also doesn't appear to be as much of a significant threat to Florida anymore, as such the hurricane warnings have been dropped, but it could still produce some tropical-storm force winds along the eastern coastline. A landfall in the Carolinas is expected tomorrow night, and until then it's forecast to retain 65 mph winds (though don't be surprised if it re-strengthens to 70 mph). ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:51, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

Isaias reached 70 mph some time ago, but he still isn't currently forecast to regain hurricane intensity since he's been struggling quite a bit with dry air and some shear. However, it can't be ruled out that Isaias could become a hurricane again, as thunderstorm activity is rebuilding over his center with the latest satellite imagery, but his slow movement could also prevent significant strengthening due to the possibility of upwelling over his own wake. Ryan 1000 02:14, August 3, 2020 (UTC)

Now forecast to regain hurricane strength before making landfall in the Carolinas tonight. Qh12 (talk) 15:17, August 3, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like I'm under a Tropical Storm Warning for the first time since Irene (though we've had plenty of non-tropical high wind events in the years since). --Dylan (Hurricane Maker 99) 15:40, August 3, 2020 (UTC)

Yeah.

Alert for [...] County

Tropical Storm Warning

NWS Boston/Norton MA

11:11am EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are

expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

...

Qh12 (talk) 17:20, August 3, 2020 (UTC)

Stay safe, guys. Warnings related to Isaias currently extend all the way up the eastern seaboard, affecting tens of millions, from Georgia all the way up to a watch in Maine, and an area with a Hurricane Warning in the Carolinas near where this is expected to make landfall. The forecast actually takes it up to a hurricane again. However, I'm not too sure if that will materialize. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:56, August 3, 2020 (UTC)

I forgot about this for a day, and now this is projected to hit pretty close to me (DC area), so hopefully things aren't that bad here. I haven't had to deal with an actual TS in a while, so not sure quite how things will go. YellowSkarmory (talk) 18:59, August 3, 2020 (UTC)

Hurricane Isaias (2nd time)

It actually restrengthened to a hurricane very soon before landfall. 75 mph/988 mbar. Tornado warnings have been issued as well as a few have been reported. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 00:10, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Up further to 85 mph 😮 It better not be RIing. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 01:15, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

I've heard it's undergoing extratropical transition already, which is earlier than forecast. Either way, it's starting to worry me now. I wasn't expecting it to be too bad but it's strengthened pretty fast. YellowSkarmory (talk) 01:16, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Oh my... This isn't Isaias... This is Irene pretending to be Isaias.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 01:44, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina

Landfall confirmed at around 11:10 PM EDT. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 03:22, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Hmm...this is a bit surprising, I didn't expect Isaias to quickly strengthen into an 85 mph storm right at the last second before making landfall, but apparently the storm's increased forward speed allowed it to do so without the influence of shear. However, because Isaias is rocketing to the northeast at 22 mph, he's not going to deliver as much flooding as he otherwise could, plus he has some extratropical characteristics. Irene had a lot more moisture in it since she was formerly a major hurricane near the Bahamas and didn't move as fast when she reached North Carolina. The most notable threat from Isaias will probably be storm surge in parts of upper Chesapeake Bay (which is much more populated than the North Carolina coastline, though Wilmington could see some damage too), and, as Steve mentioned, some tornadoes. Hopefully none of them are strong. Ryan 1000 03:28, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

I've also heard there were some fires near the landfall location. As it rides up the eastern seaboard, tens of millions will be impacted, which is why Isaias is such a big deal. Down to 75 mph/992 mbar per the latest advisory, and currently over eastern NC. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:30, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaias (3rd time)

Now officially below hurricane status. 70 mph, 992 mbars. Leeboy100 ^Hello! 06:59, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Isaias is now zooming on by at 28 mph, which will bring him over New York or Vermont by tonight or early tomorrow morning, but most of the thunderstorm action is already over there, while the circulating winds are further south nearing southern Chesapeake Bay right now. As a side note, the landfall of Isaias apparently marks the earliest date for the 5th tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S, not too sure what the previous record was but it may have been 1916 which had it's 5th landfall by August 18th. That year has the record number of U.S. landfalling (sub)tropical storms in one season though, with 10, and this year would have to have 5 more in the next few months to tie that. Ryan 1000 11:51, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Luckily things haven't been too bad here so far, power hasn't gone out, pretty much just rain so far. YellowSkarmory (talk) 12:42, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

The center of Isaias has been moving quickly northeastward along the coast throughout the overnight hours into the morning, and the center is now located near New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York. Currently 65 mph/994 mbar, and interaction with a strong upper-level jet maximum has kept it from weakening too much. Should complete extratropical transition soon enough. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:17, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Isaias has really picked up speed and is now skyrocketing at 40 mph to the northeast. Rain is only going to be temporary because of this movement, but wind and surge damage may have been extensive in some areas earlier. Ryan 1000 18:19, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

It's getting windy. Qh12 (talk) 19:55, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias

RIP.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:24, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

Sadly it seems at least 10 people have lost their lives. Beatissima (talk) 03:33, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

Damages may be unknown for some time, but until they are and after all is said and done, we'll keep this up for some time before we give Isaias his own archive. Ryan 1000 05:16, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

Death toll currently stands at 18 (13 direct, 5 indirect; 2 in Dominican Republic, the rest are all in the U.S.). Preliminary damage totals at $75 million with many areas/states still not reporting. Additionally, Wikipedia says Isaias produced the largest tornado outbreak in the U.S. since Rita in 2005, although personally I think it's the biggest since Lee in 2011. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:40, August 7, 2020 (UTC)

It might take some time for final totals to come out for all of the mid-Atlantic and northeast, but when they do, I'd be surprised if the damage totals don't exceed at least a billion or so. Ryan 1000 15:29, August 8, 2020 (UTC)

Isaias damage jump to 4 billion USD.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:28, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

In addition, 36 tornadoes were confirmed by NHC to be related to Isaias. Death toll remains at 18 but with those initial damage estimates ($4.12 billion), we might have our first retirement candidate here. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:48, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

10L.NONAME

AOI: Near Cape Verde

A tropical wave is up on the TWO at 10/10. However, environmental conditions aren't favorable for development after 2 days. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 05:55, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

93L.INVEST

This is actually invested, and is now at 20/20, but still isn't expcted to become much due to unfavorable conditions in a few days. Ryan 1000 14:20, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 50/50 now. 10 storms before August anyone? Nickcoro (talk) 17:42, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

If that happens, I swear...2005's Jose didn't come until August 22, to put that in perspective. Ryan 1000 18:33, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

At this rate, 2020 is going to be remembered as the year where almost every random AOI that nobody has any faith in at first proceeds to develop into a named storm. Send Help Please (talk) 18:49, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Down slightly to 40/40. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 00:20, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

I didn't expect such a rise in percentage. I doubt this will be anything more than a TD and will likely bust. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:27, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Down further to 20/20. Maybe the one east of the Lessers would be the one that will become Josephine. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:59, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Back up to 50/50, and the NHC states that only a small increase in organization could turn this into a depression. Send Help Please (talk) 19:16, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

10 depressions before August if advisories are initiated very soon... 😮 It would truly surprise me if it became Josephine though. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 19:49, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten

"NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located about 200 miles west of the coast of Africa at 8pm CVT (2100 UTC)." welp Send Help Please (talk) 20:48, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

The atlantic has offically lost its mind. Forecast to become a TS, beating the record by over 20 days. Currently at 35/1007. Nickcoro (talk) 21:27, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

2 questions in my mind here, #1 is this going to become a tropical storm and break that record, #2 is it going to become a tropical storm at this next advisory and be the 10th named storm before August. Whatever this storm becomes, it won't be much, if Ten doesn't become a tropical storm in this next advisory I'll probably just hope it stays as a TD, it's not going to do much of anything either way though. YellowSkarmory (talk) 22:59, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

I am not that optimistic that this will become Josephine by the next advisory – not to mention that it is almost August 1 in Cape Verde now, just literally minutes away – but I am shocked as to how quickly this developed into a TD after the NHC lowered this to 20/20. Or maybe that's the pun... it's 2020 after all: anything could happen. Whatever happens to this system, it is already a record-breaker. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 23:14, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Wow. The Atlantic is insane this yearʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:17, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Damn... this really exploded into a TD. But it's not stealing Josephine anymore unless it does another miracle intensification overnight. The discussion also mentioned the possibility this had TS force winds very briefly earlier. Imagine this got upgraded to a TS in post-analysis... ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:28, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Even if it doesn't become Josephine (or an unnamed TS in reanalysis), this is the earliest 10th tropical depression of any AHS, beating TD 10 of 2005 by two weeks. Ryan 1000 15:41, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 30 mph, probably going to degenerate to a remnant low soon. YellowSkarmory (talk) 19:28, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression Ten

And it's gone. Beatissima (talk) 03:14, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

RIP.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:18, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

August

94L.INVEST

AOI: 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles

New AOI.Now at 0/20.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 06:13, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

This might actually have slight potential to become Josephine, which would be the first ever J named storm before my birthday. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:27, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Happy upcoming birthday, Steve! Beatissima (talk) 14:49, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Thanks! Even though there's still a bit less than 3 weeks to go... This AOI is up to 0/30, and unless 93L by some miracle steals Josephine, this should get that name. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 19:49, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

August has begun, so I put this AOI in the monthly archive just in case it forms in the month. Also, I've archived the rest of July, sans Isaias and TD 10 for now, and furthermore, this is now at 0/50. Looks like Josephine is coming... Ryan 1000 05:48, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

10/60.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:46, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

20/60. Ryan 1000 18:19, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

30/60. Qh12 (talk) 00:19, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

94L.INVEST

Now an Invest.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 05:59, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 40/60. A tropical depression, maybe even Josephine, might arrive mid-week. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:51, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

Now 40/50... Taking its time to organize. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 00:11, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Further down to 30/30... Josephine might have to wait. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 06:25, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 30/30, and convection has mostly dissipated. Dry air will inhibit its attempts at developing, so Josephine looks like it will have to wait. Still hoping the J storm will form before my birthday, and with the way this season has gone, it's quite likely that something will form by then. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:30, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Down further to 20/20. Unless it wants to pull a surprise, Josephine shouldn't come out of this anymore, as dry air is too inhibiting at the moment. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 18:18, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Now 10/10, will very likely be off the outlook soon. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:16, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

Side note: The reason why July 2020 is so active for Atlantic Hurricane season is because of the zonal vertical wind shear averaged across the central tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July is at its 2nd weakest on the record.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 07:45, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

Oh dear...[1]ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 15:14, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

Note 2: 2005 is in 2020 best analog...ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 15:18, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

A prediction of 24 named storms... wow. Qh12 (talk) 16:14, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

It seems like we may see a lot of named storms but not as many hurricanes, given the rate of storms not being hurricanes so far. So we might be something like 2011 but a bit busier, with a lot of named storms, but not as many hurricanes or majors as we could have for the number of storms we're expected to get. But we could still get a handful of strong storms at peak season, assuming the SAL dies down later on. Ryan 1000 19:06, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

Down to 0/0.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:16, August 6, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

This one has come up at 10/10. Beatissima (talk) 15:24, August 7, 2020 (UTC)

Not expected to develop due to less-than-ideal conditions. Side note, NOAA released their August forecast update a few days ago, calling for 19-25 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 majors. Ryan 1000 15:31, August 8, 2020 (UTC)

Now near 0% The global models don't see much out of the Atlantic for the immediate future and put us into a temporary slumber for now, though the GFS has been hinting at something forming out of a cold front off the U.S. east coast in a week's time or so. Still too far to tell though. Ryan 1000 19:10, August 8, 2020 (UTC)

Off the TWO. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 02:32, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

95L.INVEST

AOI: South of Cabo Verde

New Cabo Verde AOI. 10/20ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:19, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

20/20. The global models don't seem to do much with this though. They do eventually show the possibility of a stronger storm coming further down the road, but that's a different storm from this one at least 10 days from now. However, even if this AOI doesn't form, this is still rather unnerving for the storms that could develop later on, as they could chew away at the shear and dry air over the Atlantic for the heart of the season to come. Ryan 1000 05:34, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Don't have high expectations for this wave developing, as it's not very well-defined at the surface and as Ryan mentioned not much model support. But this is yet another significant wave that is helping clear the MDR to make way for big storms. Late August - September is going to be scary. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:20, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

95L.INVEST

An Invest per Tidbits.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:17, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

40/50 now. This could actually become Josephine. Nickcoro (talk) 20:35, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Woah, this kicked up pretty fast...that being said, NHC says conditions are expected to become less favorable later this week, but if this can get to Josephine before that then we've got the earliest 10th named storm, as Jose in 2005 didn't come until August 22. Ryan 1000 01:55, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 60/60. I'm a bit surprised the chances are this high now, but if Josephine comes from this, it might not be anything more than a weak name stealer. Still 10 days to go if Josephine wants to arrive before my birthday. ~ Steve Message Me My Edits 📧 06:22, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

70/70.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 05:43, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

90/90 now. 11L (Potential Josephine) is coming.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:59, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance

Because there is 3 named storms in this Basin in june so I'll set this up early. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:00, June 22, 2020 (UTC)

Bill2903's Retirement Predictions

Grades (Z, F, E, D, C, B, A, S)

Scale (TD/SD, TS/SS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)

Arthur - C - 0% - Strongest May storm since Alberto. I'm also impressed that Arthur was this strong in the middle of May. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:36, June 22, 2020 (UTC)
Bertha - E - 0% - Weak but did 200 million dollars of damage and suprise formation.
Cristobal - B - 1% - The first June storm since 2017 And formed from the remnant of Amanda. What a good storm in June.
Dolly - D - 0% - The northernmost June system and the third earliest fourth named storm is enough for me to grant it a D.
Edouard - E - 0% - Being the earliest 5th named storm is the only thing that save Edouard from F or Z.
Fay - C - 0% - A New Jersey landfall in July and formed earlier than Emily 2005.Fay really impressed me this year
Gonzalo- F - 0% - Pathetic storm that failed.

Chosen Wizard's 2020 Storm Name Retirement Chances - Atlantic Hurricane:

NINE STORMS BEFORE AUGUST...

I'm coloring the storm names now based on their strength, so: TS, C1 & C2, C3 & C4, C5 (up to 199 mph), 200+ mph C5, Subtropical Storm.

Tropical Storm Arthur - Nice May storm (AGAIN), and affected NC. It'll stay though. (0%)
Ugly Storm Bertha - Staying. (1% for the 1 death)
Tropical Storm Cristobal - Lasted for what seemed like weeks in June, went all the way up to Wisconsin, and may have even re-strengthened to a TS over land! Still staying for 2026. (1%)
Why Dolly, why? - Chantal 2.0. Staying for 2026. (0%)
Tropical Storm Edouard - Dolly 2.0. (0%)
Tropical Storm Fay - Went to New Jersey and New York. (1%)
Tropical Storm Gonzalo - Weakling did not do much, even to the Caribbean. Good. (0%)
Hurricane Hanna - Stole hurricane status from Gonzalo and drenched South Texas. I think that $395 million damage estimate is conservative. (10-20%)
Tropical Storm Isaias - Living proof that the Atlantic basin wants to be like the East Pacific basin. (??%)

Chosen Wizard (⛅ NERD) (Inputs) 14:33, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Bluecaner's Retirement Predictions

(Grades - Z F D C B A S SS)

Storm - Nickname - Retirement odds (description) - Bluecaner want (description) - Grade (description)

Arthur - Carolina Lover - 1% - Impacts were very minimal - No Arthur had minimal impacts, and the king should stay - A Pretty strong for May, and was a cool storm overall

Bertha - Surprise! - 6% - Precursor caused some flooding in Florida, however that was it's precursor. It's only at 6% to recognize the damage - No Bertha wasn't that bad - C Surprised us by even forming, and even reached 50 MPH winds. Arthur was a better May Storm, however.

Cristobal - Amanda's True Power - 7% - Caused some flooding in the Yucatan and the Gulf Coast, but they've been through worse - No Cristobal hit Mexico and the damage along the gulf coast wasn't that bad - B Semi-Erratic and large system that had the brown ocean effect. However, it was a Moderate TS in June.

Dolly - Subtropical Depression Four - 0% - Out to sea - No Didn't do anything - F Name-stealing weak TS: I wanted an SD Peak. But it surprised us by even becoming a TS and going fully tropical. Still was a weak. I would have preferred and SD Peak.

Edouard - Holy ****! - 0% - Didn't have any affects - No Didn't do anything - D Name-stealing weak TS, but it broke a record.

Fay - Fayaway - 11% - Nothing Major, but killed 6 people and $400 million atm - No - C Not the weakest for a TS forming north, but, eh. Also broke a record.

Gonzalo - Underperformer - 1% - Minor effects in the Windwards - No - Nothing serious F Could've been a C2, didn't get super close to C1.

Hanna - Hurricane #1 - 6% - Serious effects where it hit, but nothing they can't handle and it hit a remote area - No - Nothing worthy of retirement B Looked very nice for a C1, especially in July.

- Bluecaner (talk)

Nickcoro's Retirement Predictions

Grading: Z, F, D, C, B, A, S.

Arthur - B - Another Season with a preseason storm. Only brushed North Carolina with some rain and wind. Did everything an impressive storm in May could do. (0.1%)
Bertha - C - Suprising formation, but also was rather weak and short-lived. Impacts in South Carolina and Florida were light. (2%)
Cristobal - C - Rather strong system for early June. Impacts in Mexico and the gulf coast were minor, and the storm was a quite long lasting storm. (5%)
Dolly - F - Weak fishspinner. Suprised us first with its formation very far north, then its upgrade to TS. Impacts were non-existent, and the storm barely reached TS, but its irregularites put it at a high end F. (0%)
Edouard - D - Very weak. However, it was the earliest E named storm on record, and had a suprising formation. Impacts in Bermuda were minimal. (0.1%)
Fay - C - Moderate strengh TS that caused minor to moderate impact in the Northeast US, the first storm to do so since 2012. Impacts in the US were rather minor however, so retirement is unlikely. Fay was also the earliest F named storm on record, beating 2005 by over a week. All of this combines for a C. (10%)
Gonzalo - D - Had a great potential to be something bigger, but got destroyed by dry air. A huge letdown, but a huge relief for the islands it could have hit. It was also the earliest G named storm. Impacts were minimal. (0.5%)
Hanna - B - Was expected to be weak, but ended up rapidly becoming a hurricane, the first one of the season, and striking Texas at peak intesity. It was the earliest H named storm in the basin, but significant damages and at least 1 death keep it from a higher rating. (25%)
Isaias - C - Storm was expected to be a weaker, then stronger, than it ended up being. The storm quickly intesified before landfall and became a devastating storm in the Carolinas. The Northeast also got significant wind, tornado, and flooding damage. With the potential for over $1 billion in damages, the I curse seems to have lived on, and this storm has a shot at getting retired. Also the earliest I named storm. (45%)
Ten - F - Looks like the Atlantic tried to copy the East Pacific. Suprising formation though. (N/A%)

Nickcoro (talk) 16:12, June 25, 2020 (UTC)

Beatissima's Retirement Predictions

TS Arthur - 0%
TS Bertha - 2%
TS Cristobal - 10%
TS Dolly - 0%
TS Edouard - 0%
TS Fay - 5%
TS Gonzalo - 0%
C1 Hanna - 5%
C1 Isaias - TBD
TD Ten-L - N/A

Beatissima (talk) 01:42, June 26, 2020 (UTC)

Andrew's Predictions

To keep things simple, I will not be posting grades. However, with four named storms as of July 4, I will give my initial percentages:

Arthur - 1% - Arthur did cause some notable flooding in Florida and North Carolina, in addition to delaying the launch of some Starlink satellites. However, with only minimal damage, I would be surprised if Arthur was retired.
Bertha - 5% - For such a quick and unexpected system, $200 million (2020 USD) in losses and one fatality is quite impactful. In addition, Bertha caused even greater flooding problems especially in Florida, not to mention delaying the Crew Dragon Demo-2 launch. Nevertheless, most of these impacts occurred when Bertha was not tropical, and retirement is also a longshot.
Cristobal - 10% - Flooding in Mexico and Central America was actually quite severe. Two feet of rain is no laughing matter, and crop damages were not ignorable. Likewise, the Gulf Coast saw some strong winds and tornadoes, and the Upper Midwest had quite the experience! Record high rainfall totals in Minnesota, Wisconsinites like myself seeing a tropical cyclone pass over our state for the first time ever, and strong winds elsewhere! However, four fatalities and $343 million (2020 USD) is still minor compared to what the Atlantic has endured in recent years.
Dolly - 0% - Although Dolly did affect some landmasses (e.g. New England), the lack of impact reports almost guarantees that this name will be staying.

Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 04:02, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

Steve's Retirement Predictions

Once I find the time and motivation I might expand this with tabs, future outlook, etc.

Intensity colors (SSHWS, 1-min winds): TD/SD (≤35 mph, ≤30 knots), Weak TS/SS (40-50 mph, 35-45 knots), Strong TS/SS (ALWAYS USED REGARDLESS OF BASIN) (60-70 mph, 50-60 knots), C1 (75-90 mph, 65-80 knots), C2 (100-110 mph, 85-95 knots), C3 (115-125 mph, 100-110 knots), C4 (130-155 mph, 115-135 knots), C5 (160-180 mph, 140-155 knots), BEAST MODE (185+ mph, 160+ knots)

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A; 0.000...1-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999...%; 100%; TBA (active storms only)

Grading colors: SSS, SS, S, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, 🤦🏻‍♂️, TBA (active storms only)

PTCs are not included. TDs are included for grading purposes only.

Arthur:
- Retirement prediction: 0.1% - Caused some notable impacts to parts of the southeast (namely Florida and North Carolina), but only minimal damage was reported.
- Grading: C - A nice pre-season storm, became a strong TS as well.

Bertha:
- Retirement prediction: 5% - Very small chance for the $200 million and 1 death it caused. Notably, it also postponed the Crew Dragon Demo-2 launch by 3 days.
- Grading: D+ - The second pre-season storm this year, formed quite unexpectedly and quickly intensified to 50 mph right before landfall. It really tried not to fail, but was still very short-lived nonetheless.

Cristobal:
- Retirement prediction: 20% - Formed from the remnants of Amanda, bringing significant impacts to Central America and Mexico. Later moved up to make landfall on the Gulf Coast causing further impacts. Strangely was still at least somewhat well-defined when it was up near Wisconsin. $675 million and 5 deaths gives it a small chance, but very unlikely to be considered.
- Grading: C - Became a strong TS and was relatively long-lived for an early June storm. Also became the earliest third named storm on record.

Dolly:
- Retirement prediction: 0% - Why would this fishspinner be retired?
- Grading: F- - A pathetic steal of a name. Though it did reach 45 mph.

Edouard:
- Retirement prediction: 0.0001% - Except for very minor Bermuda impacts, see you in 2026, fishspinner.
- Grading: E - Another name stealer, but like Dolly, reached 45 mph (mostly due to baroclinic forcing). Got itself named almost at the last minute after struggling as a TD for a couple days. Also became the earliest 5th storm ever, increasing its grade.

Fay:
- Retirement prediction: 8% - 6 people were killed by this storm as of this writing, and the damage toll is pretty significant, at $400 million. Impacts are too low for retirement though, but the tiny chance still exists.
- Grading: D+ - Not a "Fayl", since it reached 60 mph and struck land. Further credit for being the earliest 6th named storm on record, beating Franklin from 2005 by 12 days.

Gonzalo:
- Retirement prediction: 0.01% - Died before it could do much harm to the Antilles.
- Grading: D- - Performed below expectations, with forecasts often calling for a hurricane, but I guess that's a plus due to the land that was in its path.

Hanna:
- Retirement prediction: 15% - Damages in parts of southern Texas might have been severe or even catastrophic. Currently >$500 million in damages has been reported and 5 deaths, but it likely isn't enough for retirement.
- Grading: B- - Nice job becoming the first hurricane of the season (and almost becoming a C2), it's a shame you had to make landfall and harm people though...

Isaias:
- Retirement prediction: TBA - I'm gonna wait until the damage totals are released. With 13 deaths so far, and damages potentially very high, this is very likely to have a greater chance of retirement than Cristobal and Hanna.
- Grading: C+ - Notably, this survived Hispaniola like it was nothing, and was a bit of a strange storm to track in general. But I hesitate to give this any higher than the Cs due to all the land it affected.

Ten:
- Retirement prediction: N/A
- Grading: F - Unexpected formation and might have even had a brief period of TS-force winds without stealing a name, so I'll give it some credit for that.

~ Ste ve 🎆 Happy Independence Day!🇺🇸 05:09, July 4, 2020 (UTC) (last updated 06:04, August 6, 2020 (UTC))

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions

Although nothing merits retirement in the Atlantic so far, I'll still make my list:

Arthur - 1% - Caused some minor impacts in North Carolina, but it won't cut for retirement. Also extended the pre-season record from 5 years to 6.

Bertha - 7% - With 200 million dollars in flood damage to South Carolina and a death, it gets more credit than Arthur, but it still won't be enough for retirement. Also it made for the 3rd time in the past 8 years to have two pre-season storms.

Cristobal - 20% - Earliest 3rd storm, slightly edging out 2016's Colin, and with somewhat more damage than Bertha (which recently got buffed to 675 million), but still, it likely won't cut for retirement.

Dolly - 0% - First fish of the year, so see you in 2026.

Edouard - 0% - Beat Emily '05 for the earliest 5th storm record, but like Dolly, a fish is a fish.

Fay - 10% - Like Edouard and Cristobal, it beat the record for the earliest storm of it's number, but damage wasn't too bad, around 400 million, and the death toll was low. Still, it gets credit for the impacts.
Gonzalo - 2% - Another earliest storm record, 2 days ahead of 2005's Gert, but impacts to the lessers probably won't be too bad.
Hanna - 18% - Yet again, Hanna was a record-earliest storm of its number, beating Harvey of 2005 by over a week (August 3), and caused 5 deaths with around 500 million estimated in flood damage to Texas and Mexico. This percentage is still preliminary since it could go higher, but unless the final totals are really severe, I'm not sold on retirement from Hanna, as some similar past storms like Alex '10 and Dolly '08 were snubbed for over a billion each.
Isaias - ?? - Earliest 9th storm, beating out 2005's Irene, and hit Hispaniola too, hopefully flooding wasn't too severe there. Now a hurricane, hit the Bahamas, and ran up the U.S. east coast and into Canada, all while killing at least 10 people and doing some damage too. However, I can't put a percent on Isaias until final totals come out.

It looks like the Atlantic is proving us really wrong so far in 2020, which not only could rival 2005's total storm count at this rate but could also be the first time ever in which 5 consecutive Atlantic seasons are above-normal (unless the ACE totals stay low). El Nino will come again at some point, but because it failed to materialize in 2018 or 2019, it may not come again until next year or 2022. Ryan 1000 23:50, July 12, 2020 (UTC)

Retirement predictions from Nut

I return from the void with some retirement predictions on the storms the Atlantic has on offer. :)

I've also added colours because why not. Scale: TD/SD, TS/SS, STS/SSS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5

Retirement colours (taken from TG's 2017 predictions): 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%, TBC, N/A

Arthur - 1% - Minimal damages equal no retirement. Also makes this year the sixth consecutive season with a pre-season storm.
Bertha - 5% - Inflicted more damage to the Carolinas than Arthur did but it's hardly notable and she'll be back in 2026. Nice surprise formation though and thank you for giving us another pre-season storm.
Cristobal - 15% - A pretty fun storm to track. Unfortunately, he wasn't impact-free with formidable damage having occurred in Central America and in the southern states, but this name will most likely stay since both the US and Central America have seen much more damaging storms than Cristobal. Credit though for giving Lake Superior its first system of tropical origin.
Dolly - 0% - Fishies don't get retired.
Edouard - 0% - It was the earliest fifth-named storm, that's it. Reached 45mph on his transition to an extratropical cyclone, but this will stay.
Fay - 10% - Earliest named sixth storm which left minor impacts to the US East Coast. No retirement here, but not without credit.
Gonzalo - 1% - Luckily, impacts to the Trinidad island wasn't nearly as severe as it could've been but this disappointed me as it was forecast many times to become a hurricane. Oh well, at least you became the earliest seventh storm.
Hanna - 15% - Defied forecasts to become a hurricane and looked impressive in satellite imagery. However, she did inflict damage to parts of Texas and northeastern Mexico with the former already having struggled with rising COVID-19 cases. Damage estimates are less than Cristobal though, so this won't cut it.
Isaias - TBC - According to this storm, Hispaniola is a conspiracy since it managed to not get ripped apart when it crossed that island. However, it did cause noteworthy damage to the Antilles and the Eastern Seaboard, potentially quite severe, but I can't give a percentage until all of the damage totals are released.
Ten - N/A - Defied initial forecasts to become a TD and didn't steal a name despite it initially having TS-force winds for a time, so well done for that.

Nutfield001 (talk) 17:15, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

Atlantic hurricane reanalysis

Because this topic is not related to the current Atlantic hurricane season, I have instead posted it on the Hurricanes Talk forum. The page has not been utilized in a few years, and I recommend checking it out. Anyways, AOML just completed a reanalysis of the 1961 to 1965 seasons. In summary, 1961 lost a major record, the storms of 1962 and 1964 were weaker than originally estimated, the systems of 1963 were stronger than previously thought, and 1965 gained some tropical storms. Andrew Talk To Me Contribs Mail Me 20:23, January 4, 2020 (UTC)

@@ Line 367: / Line 367: @@
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 : Isaias damage jump to 4 billion USD.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 13:28, August 11, 2020 (UTC)
+::In addition, 36 tornadoes were confirmed by NHC to be related to Isaias. Death toll remains at 18 but with those initial damage estimates ($4.12 billion), we might have our first retirement candidate here. [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Jas (Anonymous 2.0)]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 16:48, August 11, 2020 (UTC)
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