July[]
And just like the Atlantic, July is here for the EPac too. We might get busier here soon enough, as July is roughly the EPac's August, with an average of 4 storms, 2 hurricanes, and a major forming here in this month, historically speaking. Ryan1000 04:09, July 1, 2020 (UTC)
96E.INVEST[]
AOI: SW of Mexico[]
Ladies and gentlemen, yet another one has popped up on the TWO. The NHC is giving this a 0/20 chance of development. Maybe this will be Cristina after the failure of the earlier train to produce significant storms. ~ Steve 18:35, June 28, 2020 (UTC)
- Added this into the July section in case it forms, which would make this a July storm. Not expected to become anything significant though. Ryan1000 04:09, July 1, 2020 (UTC)
- 20/30 now.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 10:18, July 3, 2020 (UTC)
- The Eastern Pacific has certainly had its share of non-developing AOIs and invests recently. Hopefully, 2020 does not become a re-2013 in terms of quality vs quantity. Also, as this particular system's organization has recently lost organization, I do not expect any significant development. Chances of formation are down to 10% for the next 48 hours and 30% for the next five days. 03:06, July 4, 2020 (UTC)
Showers and t-storms have increased a bit, now 20/30, though I still doubt development. ~ Steve 🎆 06:03, July 5, 2020 (UTC)
96E.INVEST (original AOI before it merged with new AOI)[]
Invested, percentages unchanged. ~ Steve 16:21, July 5, 2020 (UTC)
5 days have decreased to 20%, but 48 hours remains the same (20/20). ~ Steve 21:55, July 5, 2020 (UTC)
Down to 10/10. ~ Steve 15:28, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
Now near 0% for 2 and 5 days, should be off the outlook soon and might merge with the other disturbance to its southwest. ~ Steve 21:01, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
Gone from the outlook, though still on NRL and Tidbits. ~ Steve 03:47, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
Dead for good. ~ Steve 16:01, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
96E.INVEST (continuation with new AOI)[]
A new one has appeared to the west or southwest of the dying 96E, has some potential to develop further. Currently 10/20. ~ Steve 15:28, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
Now 20/30, could have a slight chance of development into Douglas. Expected to eat up the dying 96E. ~ Steve 21:01, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
Up to 30/40, but if it somehow becomes Douglas, it'll be a failure because environmental conditions will be unfavorable by late week. ~ Steve 02:54, July 8, 2020 (UTC)
Looks like Tidbits and NRL still have 96E up, which is now referring to this AOI instead of the old one. So it looks like I have to merge both sections. Kinda weird how this is not designated 98E instead, but it might be because of the old AOI's merger and that AOI significantly influencing this one. ~ Steve 16:24, July 8, 2020 (UTC)
Now 30/30... I don't think this will even develop at all. It's got only a short window in the next 2 days to get its act together. ~ Steve 22:19, July 8, 2020 (UTC)
Down to 10/10, sad. I guess Douglas is coming from the 0/50 AOI. ~ Steve 03:57, July 9, 2020 (UTC)
Went down to near 0% overnight before falling off the TWO. Still on NRL though so it'll be kept on the active storms template until they take it down. ~ Steve 16:03, July 9, 2020 (UTC)
05E.CRISTINA[]
AOI: South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec[]
New AOI. Now at 0/30ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 10:18, July 3, 2020 (UTC)
Up to 0/40.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:48, July 3, 2020 (UTC)
- It seems that this AOI will be the one that will develop first. However, proximity to the above system could delay formation. Chances of formation for this AOI are now near 0% for the next 48 hours and 50% for the next five days. Hopefully, whenever she comes, C(h)ristina Aguilera will be as impressive as her 2014 incarnation. 03:13, July 4, 2020 (UTC)
0/60, Cristina is probably coming from this. Ryan1000 14:44, July 4, 2020 (UTC)
0/70.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:59, July 4, 2020 (UTC)
- Up to 20/80, I could see this going as far as to becoming the first hurricane of the season. ~ Steve 16:21, July 5, 2020 (UTC)
97E.INVEST[]
Invested, now 40/80. Model ensembles on Tidbits make this at least a moderate TS, but I have hope it will strengthen further, potentially to a hurricane. ~ Steve 21:55, July 5, 2020 (UTC)
Up to 40/90, confidence is getting very high that this forms. Nickcoro (talk) 00:31, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
- Now 60/90, will most likely form in two to three days. ~ Steve 15:28, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
80/90. Models are increasingly confident that this will become a hurricane, but given the EPac's tendency to produce stronger storms than forecast, this might rapidly strengthen into a major while heading out to sea. Ryan1000 18:42, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Five-E[]
Declared a TD as of the latest advisory, currently 35 mph/1007 mbar. Forecast to become a hurricane with a peak of 100 mph, though I think a major is likely. ~ Steve 21:01, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
Seems like the general model consensus is Cat 2, but the discussion does mention potential rapid intesification, so a cause can easily be made for Cat 3. Nickcoro (talk) 23:37, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Storm Cristina[]
She's here guys.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 02:54, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
- Currently 40 mph/1005 mbar. Forecast peak raised to 110 mph, expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. ~ Steve 03:47, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
NHC mentioned in their forecast discussion that Cristina might have briefly entrained some dry air which may have eroded the west side of the storm slightly and thus weakened the small circulation of the tiny tropical storm, but it's a little hard to tell if it was significant, and given the favorable conditions Cristina is over, this could easily rapidly explode into a category 3 or 4 hurricane before she eventually moves over cooler waters late in the week and dies out over water. Ryan1000 03:54, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
- No intensity change since yesterday, forecast peak lowered to 105 mph. I think that shear and dry air have really been inhibiting its organization so far, but it should resume strengthening later today. ~ Steve 16:01, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
- Starting to strengthen again. 45 mph/1003 mbar as of Advisory 5. ~ Steve 21:02, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
Still at 45mph. NHC doesn't mention potential RI anymore, so I am losing confidence that this storm even reaches hurricane strengh. Forecast peak right now is 85mph, but some models have peaks in mid range tropical storm. Major hurricane seems near impossible unless RI occurs within the next 12 hours. Nickcoro (talk) 11:53, July 8, 2020 (UTC)
- Apparently the dry air impeded Cristina quite a bit, so she doesn't have much time now. Still could crack hurricane intensity, but it would have to significantly overperform expectations to become our season's first major. Ryan1000 13:13, July 8, 2020 (UTC)
- Jump to 60mph.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 15:10, July 8, 2020 (UTC)
- Yeah, it's now 60 mph/998 mbar, and still forecast to peak at 85 mph. But since strengthening has resumed, I won't be that surprised if it becomes a C2 or even RIs to a major. But I don't expect a peak below hurricane intensity. ~ Steve 16:24, July 8, 2020 (UTC)
A tad bit stronger as of Advisory 10: 65 mph/995 mbar, with a forecast peak of 80 mph. ~ Steve 03:57, July 9, 2020 (UTC)
- Starting to doubt whether this will even become a hurricane after all. ~ Bluecaner (talk 11:02, July 9, 2020 (UTC)
- Its appearance has been improving a bit though, with its convective structure evolving into a large curved band. At the very weakest, it'll peak at 70 mph, but hopefully not. Still hoping for a hurricane. ~ Steve 16:03, July 9, 2020 (UTC)
- Up to 70 mph/993 mbar. Will probably be a hurricane in the next advisory. You've got this, Cristina! ~ Steve 22:01, July 9, 2020 (UTC)
Still the same intensity, but not looking as good. The chances of it becoming a hurricane are dwindling fast since it's about to cross the 26 C SST isotherm later today. Why do you have to fail us, Cristina.... ~ Steve 16:18, July 10, 2020 (UTC)
- She looks amazing, though. It looks like the accidentally took her off the TWO. Beatissima (talk) 20:42, July 10, 2020 (UTC)
- Convection is blowing up around the center. It could become a hurricane at the next advisory due to this. This may become a hurricane after all. Nickcoro (talk) 01:42, July 11, 2020 (UTC)
- Cristina actually does look very good right now, with an eye-like feature and bands. I'm surprised it's not yet a hurricane. Tonight is Cristina's very last shot because it is moving over increasingly cooler SSTs. ~ Steve 03:42, July 11, 2020 (UTC)
NHC still refuses to upgrade Cristina and she's probably going to weaken soon. But, even if they don't upgrade her operationally there's a chance post-season analysis might find Cristina to have briefly been a hurricane. Ryan1000 13:34, July 11, 2020 (UTC)
- Cristina's chance has passed... 65 mph/996 mbar now, and will just gradually weaken from here on out. Hopefully post-season analysis will avenge its current 70 mph failicia status and upgrade it to a minimal hurricane, because with the appearance it had earlier, I can't really see how this was never a hurricane. ~ Steve 18:13, July 11, 2020 (UTC)
- Down to 60 mph/999 mbar and moving over 23 C SSTs, expected to become a remnant low by early Tuesday morning. ~ Steve 04:08, July 12, 2020 (UTC)
Weakened further since my last post, and is now 40 mph/1006 mbar and devoid of deep convection. I now expect it to be a remnant low by tomorrow morning, maybe even overnight. ~ Steve 20:56, July 12, 2020 (UTC)
Post-tropical Cyclone Cristina[]
Cristina has been devoid of deep convection for 12 hours and the NHC has now issued the 26th and last advisory on the system. Expected to open up into a trough in 3 days. JavaHurricane 02:46, July 13, 2020 (UTC)
AOI: Far Southeast of Hawaii[]
Appeared on the CPac outlook, currently 0/20. I hope it becomes Hone. ~ Steve 16:21, July 5, 2020 (UTC)
- This better "Hone" up to it.
- Okay I'm really sorry
- - Bluecaner (talk 21:33, July 5, 2020 (UTC)
- Are you using this thread to hone your comedy skills, Bluecaner? Beatissima (talk) 21:56, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
Down to 0/10 :( ~ Steve 21:01, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
- Hone, I shrunk the odds of this forming. Beatissima (talk) 04:00, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
- I guess we'll have to hone our jokes for later ~ Bluecaner (talk 8:57, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
- This AOI better hone its organization if it wants to be something, or else the Grim Reaper will hone it to oblivion. ~ Steve 16:01, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
- Now 10/10, I don't think this will be much honestly. ~ Steve 21:02, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
- honestly Beatissima (talk) 16:14, July 8, 2020 (UTC)
- Sadly, our hone jokes didn't hone the system at all. ~ Bluecaner (talk 11:01, July 9, 2020 (UTC)
- Lol at all these hone jokes. I can't believe I missed the "hone" in honestly. 😂 Anyways, this AOI is no longer on the TWO. It got honed by the Grim Reaper. ~ Steve 16:03, July 9, 2020 (UTC)
06E.NONAME[]
AOI: Moving Off Central America[]
Yet another AOI is on NHC's outlook, currently 0/20. It's possible we could be up to Elida in a weeks' time. ~ Steve 22:43, July 6, 2020 (UTC)
Up a little to 0/30. ~ Steve 16:01, July 7, 2020 (UTC)
0/40, chances for this becoming Douglas or Elida continue to increase. ~ Steve 02:54, July 8, 2020 (UTC)
Now 0/50. Due to 96E's failure, this is becoming Douglas if it develops. ~ Steve 03:57, July 9, 2020 (UTC)
Up further to 0/60. ~ Steve 16:03, July 9, 2020 (UTC)
The AOI is now marked on the 48-hour outlook over Central America, 10/70. Douglas is likely out of this. ~ Steve 04:24, July 10, 2020 (UTC)
- This is probably going to be our first major down the road, with Cristina moistening up the environment ahead of this and eating up much of the dry air and shear that could get in this storm's way. Ryan1000 04:47, July 10, 2020 (UTC)
- I hope it becomes our first major (or first hurricane if Cristina fails to do it) as long as it stays completely out to sea. Now 20/70. ~ Steve 03:42, July 11, 2020 (UTC)
98E.INVEST[]
Finally an invest.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:47, July 11, 2020 (UTC)
- Chances went up to 30/70 when this was invested, but now it's 50/80. Douglas is coming from this, and please be a hurricane if at all possible. ~ Steve 18:13, July 11, 2020 (UTC)
- This actually went down to 40/70 overnight, but because showers and t-storms have increased again, it's now 60/70. Douglas might arrive tomorrow or Tuesday. ~ Steve 20:56, July 12, 2020 (UTC)
- Some of Cristina's outflow sheared this storm earlier, which is why it took longer to develop when it could've been a TD at this point. And unless this goes further south, unfortunately the possibility of this becoming our first hurricane may not happen if it follows in Cristina's wake. Ryan1000 23:24, July 12, 2020 (UTC)
- Up to 70/70 and TCFA up from JTWC, but models indicate that this will at most peak as a mid-range TS. JavaHurricane 03:18, July 13, 2020 (UTC)
- Down to 60/60 because it became a bit less well-defined since yesterday. Sadly, the models you mentioned might be correct that this will be nothing more than a weak to moderate TS. The TS/weakling spam needs to end soon...most other recent EPac seasons (that I know of) by this point in time have gotten their first hurricane. Hopefully post-analysis will find that Cristina was indeed a hurricane after all. ~ Steve 06:22, July 13, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Six-E[]
Now a tropical depression, with an initial intensity of 35 mph/1007 mbar. Unfortunately, it's not expected to surpass 40 mph. If it steals "Douglas" like that, I might win in the betting pools lol. ~ Steve 20:49, July 13, 2020 (UTC)
- We'll have to see whether he turns out to be Doug-more or Doug-less. Beatissima (talk) 22:59, July 13, 2020 (UTC)
Ha, nice pun. But in any instance, this didn't pass as far south as it was earlier forecast to, so it has no chance to become a hurricane like it could've had. Ryan1000 02:25, July 14, 2020 (UTC)
It has even weakened now. Tropical storm intensity now seems like an impossiblity. Nickcoro (talk) 12:51, July 14, 2020 (UTC)
- The East Pacific, tied for my favorite basin, is, just, so disappointing this year. ~ Bluecaner (talk) (19:34 UTC, July 14th)
Remnants of Six-E[]
Already gone. Waste of space. Nickcoro (talk) 22:21, July 14, 2020 (UTC)
- For the record, even though last year's PHS had a number of disapointing failures, it still had two hurricanes, one of which was a strong major, at this time last year, while none of the first 6 depressions or tropical storms of this year became hurricanes. That hasn't happened since the 2003 season, when none of the first 9 storms did so. Ryan1000 14:10, July 15, 2020 (UTC)
- What a failure this was... the EPac is taking a while to ramp up this year. I'll be shocked if the EPac repeats 2003 with no majors at all this year and no hurricanes until late August. ~ Steve 16:30, July 15, 2020 (UTC)
07E.NONAME[]
AOI: Several Hundred Miles SW of Mexico[]
Another one well south of Mexico. Expected to move WNW and is currently at 0/20, but considering where it's likely to form over, this system probably won't get very strong either. Ryan1000 14:10, July 15, 2020 (UTC)
- Yeah, at this rate the first hurricane might not come until August (unless Cristina was one very briefly). This might not be anything more than a mid-grade TS IMO. ~ Steve 16:30, July 15, 2020 (UTC)
- 5-day chances up to 30%, still 0% for 48 hours. ~ Steve 05:11, July 16, 2020 (UTC)
Now 10/30, but will it steal Douglas? I don't think so because unfavorable conditions will hit early next week. ~ Steve 22:33, July 17, 2020 (UTC)
Up to 20/40. This could become yet another breif, weak storm. Nickcoro (talk) 14:54, July 18, 2020 (UTC)
99E.INVEST[]
This has actually been invested according to the Tidbits and NRL sites. This will be, just like Boris, nothing more than a name stealer if it organizes into "Douglas." Maybe I will win in the betting pools? ~ Steve 20:00, July 18, 2020 (UTC)
Up further to 40/50. ~ Steve 00:53, July 19, 2020 (UTC)
Upped even further to 60/60. I think Douglas is going to be stolen... might even be a TD as soon as I wake up tomorrow morning. ~ Steve 06:27, July 19, 2020 (UTC)
Down to 50/50 and is now beginning to move over cooler waters as we speak. The chances for Douglas are dwindling, but it still has a chance of becoming a brief TD over the next day. If it does become a TD but fails to become a named tropical storm, it would be the fourth so far this year, following TD April-E (as I love to call it), Four-E, and Six-E. That would really be a lot of TDs. It must be that a lot of systems want to develop, but conditions either do not favor them or the SSTs become too cool by the time they get their act together. ~ Steve 19:38, July 19, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Seven-E[]
It looks this storm has just barely formed. Only expected to be a depression at peak, making it a potential fourth unnamed storm. Nickcoro (talk) 11:42, July 20, 2020 (UTC)
- Are we on track to break any records for number of unnamed depressions? Beatissima (talk) 15:20, July 20, 2020 (UTC)
- I don't really have time to check, but I'm pretty sure this is probably the most unnamed depressions ever before August. I'm kinda surprised this actually formed, since it was already starting to move over cooler waters yesterday. It's already over 25 C water and conditions will become less favorable from here on out, erasing any chance of this stealing "Douglas," which I expect TD Eight-E to be named as. As with Eight-E, currently 35 mph/1008 mbar. ~ Steve 18:27, July 20, 2020 (UTC)
Actually, 1977 had 5 depressions before August, one more than this year (though we have another 11 days to tie or beat that record), but that was the least active season on record, and ended up with 8 unnamed depressions overall, one of which was the leftovers from Anita in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 02:59, July 21, 2020 (UTC)
Remnants of Seven-E[]
Just like that, yet another unnamed storm comes and goes. Nickcoro (talk) 15:36, July 21, 2020 (UTC)
08E.DOUGLAS[]
90E.INVEST[]
Another invest has popped up, 10/30 right now. Nickcoro (talk) 13:38, July 19, 2020 (UTC)
- This actually has better initial model support than 99E, and since it is expected to trek further south, it might finally be our first hurricane (Elida, if 99E steals Douglas), but it's later expected to trek WNW and might threaten Hawaii down the road. Ryan1000 17:40, July 19, 2020 (UTC)
- Upped to 20/50 with model support that actually does seem to suggest our first hurricane could come from this, according to a few ensembles on Tidbits. However, it could also pull off a Cristina and fail to become one - hopefully that won't be the case. ~ Steve 19:38, July 19, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Eight-E[]
Advisories have been initiated, currently 35 mph/1008 mbar like Seven-E. However, unlike that depression, this is expected to become Douglas and forecast to be a hurricane as well. Forecast peak is 80 mph, but then again, Cristina was also forecast to peak at hurricane intensity. The discussion also mentions a 20-25% chance of RI in the next 72 hours per the Rapid Intensification Indices of SHIPS. Please don't pull a Cristina, but please don't threaten Hawaii either... ~ Steve 18:27, July 20, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Storm Douglas[]
Looks like this is now Douglas. Still forecast to be a hurricane, but it isn't expected to become stronger than cat 1 for now. Also, it looks like Douglas will stay just south of Hawaii's Big Island late in the forecast period, based on the model runs from Tidbits. Also, it will probably only be a tropical storm by then. Ryan1000 02:44, July 21, 2020 (UTC)
- Currently 40 mph/1006 mbar, forecast peak raised to 85 mph. Rooting for our first hurricane (as long as it stays south of Hawaii). ~ Steve 06:32, July 21, 2020 (UTC)
- Now up to 60mph/999mb. Looking more an more likely that hurricane occurs with forecast peak now at 90mph. Nickcoro (talk) 11:27, July 21, 2020 (UTC)
65 mph/998 mbars. Forecast peak raised to 105 mph, but it's quite a tiny little storm (tropical storm winds go only 35 miles from the center), so it could become a major, and it looks like Douglas is forecast to remain just south of the Big Island down the road, so even a small miss to the south could make a big difference in impacts with such a small storm like Douglas. Ryan1000 15:04, July 21, 2020 (UTC)
Lets hope it misses, but Hawaii should have Douglas in mind. ~ Bluecaner (talk 20:36, July 21, 2020
- Actually...scratch that previous remark, the latest forecast track takes Douglas into the islands as a tropical storm now. Man, Hawaii's been seeing an increasing frequency of tropical storms hitting them from the east in recent years. Before Iselle in 2014, the only tropical storm to strike a Hawaian island aside from Kaua'i was that unnamed storm that formed off of the Big Island in 1958. And then, every two years since 2014 has had a TS landfall on the islands from the east. Iselle in 2014, Darby in 2016, Olivia in 2018, and now, unless the current forecast track or intensity changes, Hawaii could be seeing TS Douglas in 2020. Hopefully impacts to the Aloha state won't be too bad from this down the road, like they weren't from the previous aforementioned storms. Ryan1000 04:54, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
- It appears that dry air intrusion might have halted Douglas's strengthening for now, but I still expect a hurricane tomorrow. I hope Hawaii is preparing for this storm, especially those on Big Island. ~ Steve 06:19, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
- Watch this storm never strengthen into a hurricane. If Cristina couldn't do it, so can't this one. (I'm joking about the lameness of this season so far)
- Anyways, it has DAYS to become a hurricane, so at LEAST a weak one is in the books. Chosen Wizard (⛅ NERD) (Inputs) 12:32, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
- It appears that dry air intrusion might have halted Douglas's strengthening for now, but I still expect a hurricane tomorrow. I hope Hawaii is preparing for this storm, especially those on Big Island. ~ Steve 06:19, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
Hurricane Douglas[]
With winds of 75mph, Douglas become the first hurricane of this pathetic season. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 15:20, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
Forecast brings it very close to major hurricane intesity, and impacts in Hawaii will be amplified if this storm gets that strong. Nickcoro (talk) 15:55, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
- Well we finally have a hurricane. Better late than never... current forecast peak is 110 mph, making major hurricane intensity a real possibility. A direct landfall is now forecast on the Big Island, let's hope it won't be too bad. ~ Steve 16:29, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
If Douglas can overperform his intensity forecast with a burst of RI and become a major hurricane, then it's very possible that Douglas might not be as harmless as the previous tropical storms that hit Hawaii in the past 6 years...the SHIPS-based runs of both the global models indicate a more than 50% chance of RI for Douglas in the next day or two. Not good...Hawaii better watch out. Ryan1000 17:18, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
- Douglas now expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 20:49, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
- Latest advisory says that Douglas is 80 mph/989 mbar. It now appears that they forecast it to still be near or at hurricane strength when it hits Hawaii. This might get really ugly... ~ Steve 23:02, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
- Douglas is now a C2, 100mph. Expected to reach 125mph in just 24 hours. Nickcoro (talk) 02:46, July 23, 2020 (UTC)
- Latest advisory says that Douglas is 80 mph/989 mbar. It now appears that they forecast it to still be near or at hurricane strength when it hits Hawaii. This might get really ugly... ~ Steve 23:02, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
Rapid intensification is underway, it wouldn't surprise me if Douglas cracks cat 4 before weakening as he approaches Hawaii. Ryan1000 05:05, July 23, 2020 (UTC)
Major Hurricane Douglas[]
With winds of 120mph, Douglas officially become a C3 Major Hurricane.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 09:33, July 23, 2020 (UTC)
- NHC expects the peak to be just below cat 4, at 125 mph, but 130 is a possibility, as Douglas has until the end of today or so until SST's begin to cool which should halt intensification, and shear will pick up over the weekend. Currently expected to be at 80 mph when he nears Hawaii, before weakening to a tropical storm when Douglas moves into the northern tip of the Big Island or the smaller islands just to the northwest. Ryan1000 13:22, July 23, 2020 (UTC)
- Might peak as a low-end C4 IMO. Unfortunately, a hurricane-strength landfall in Hawaii is looking more likely... ~ Steve 20:17, July 23, 2020 (UTC)
- Up to 130mph, likely to peak as such, now a low end C4. Nickcoro (talk) 02:59, July 24, 2020 (UTC)
- Wow, Douglas is a C4 now ? Douglas really wants to suprise me. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 03:05, July 24, 2020 (UTC)
- This thing is exploding. Beatissima (talk) 04:10, July 24, 2020 (UTC)
- Might peak as a low-end C4 IMO. Unfortunately, a hurricane-strength landfall in Hawaii is looking more likely... ~ Steve 20:17, July 23, 2020 (UTC)
NHC is still confident that Douglas will weaken to a tropical storm before striking Hawaii, but with the way Douglas has organized in recent hours, now being a somewhat large and very well-defined, powerful major hurricane, it's possible that Douglas will be slower to weaken than smaller hurricanes did in this area in the past (shear will be slower to pick up than cooler SST's), and so Douglas could be the first hurricane landfall in Hawaii in 28 years. But even if it isn't, a strong TS landfall scraping through Hawaii from east-southeast to west-northwest could still deliver considerable and widespread impacts. Ryan1000 05:05, July 24, 2020 (UTC)
- Crossover into CPAC.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 09:45, July 24, 2020 (UTC)
Still forecast to be a 70-75 mph storm when it nears Hawaii, but the track has also been shifting further north lately, taking it closer to Oahu and Kauai. Not good. Ryan1000 14:05, July 24, 2020 (UTC)
- Down to 120/962. Still fairly well-organized, but with the way the track has continued to shift north, there may be hope that Douglas eventually misses Hawaii to the north if he doesn't start taking the more westward turn from the second ridge north of Hawaii right now. Ryan1000 18:07, July 24, 2020 (UTC)
- Hawaii needs to prepare urgently. At this rate, the islands of Maui, Molokai, and especially the city of Honolulu might receive the brunt of the storm. Chances are that this might still be a minimal hurricane when it arrives. Hopefully, maybe this scenario of it eventually missing Hawaii to the north comes true. ~ Steve 19:47, July 24, 2020 (UTC)
Hurricane Douglas (2nd time)[]
Down to 95 kt. JavaHurricane 10:37, July 25, 2020 (UTC)
- Dropped to 105 mph, 975 mb now. YellowSkarmory (talk) 14:51, July 25, 2020 (UTC)
Now down to category 1, and still moving at a brisk pace to the WNW. Douglas is now expected to just narrowly miss a landfall on Hawaii to the north, but a landfall on Oahu or Kauai still can't be ruled out. Speaking of the former island, a hurricane warning is now in effect there, as Douglas is expected to come very close to the island, still as a cat 1. Ryan1000 05:04, July 26, 2020 (UTC)
- Let's hope impacts won't be too bad. A slight pass to the north is better than the direct hit that we once feared. Currently, 90 mph and 982 mbar. ~ Steve 06:05, July 26, 2020 (UTC)
Despite wind shear that was expected to pick up, Douglas is still getting strong flares of convection near his center due to SST's that remain warm, which is keeping him as a hurricane now. Also, the forward speed has decelerated a little bit due to a weakness in the ridge, which might push him slightly farther west, but it also means he has more time to weaken due to the increasing shear. The hurricane warning has now extended to Kauai. Ryan1000 12:49, July 26, 2020 (UTC)
- Hurricane warning has now extended to the islands of Maui, Kahoolawe, Maui, and Molokai. Douglas's convection has taken a bit of a westward jog recently, because according to recon mentioned in the latest discussion, the center is further south than initially expected, and since SST's are still warm, Douglas will only be slow to weaken. And due to the strong flareups of convection, he hasn't weakened from his 90 mph peak near the islands yet, and could still be a hurricane as he nears or makes landfall on the islands; in fact, the latest forecast intensity from the NHC brings Douglas close to a landfall on Kauai with 80 mph, not 75 mph, winds, and 85 mph when he nears Maui. And because the islands are so small, even a slight deviation in track could drastically change the outcome of where the worst weather occurs. Ryan1000 16:18, July 26, 2020 (UTC)
Unfortunately, it looks like the due west trend is continuing, and Douglas could make landfall on Maui later today, before moving towards Oahu and Kauai. Still a formidable category 1 storm too, this might cause unprecedented damage to some of the islands at this rate... Ryan1000 17:47, July 26, 2020 (UTC)
- I think it has made it's closest approach to Maui now, but it looks likely to make an actual landfall on Oahu and Kauai while still a minimal hurricane. Regardless of whether it passes just to the north or makes a direct hit, this will be a dangerous storm for them. Currently 85 mph/987 mbar according to the most recent advisory. ~ Steve 22:17, July 26, 2020 (UTC)
It looks like Oahu caught a break from Douglas, with the center passing just north of the island in the latest satellite imagery, but this is probably the closest a Pacific hurricane has ever came to making a landfall on the island, and even though the center may be passing just north of Oahu, the island is still experiencing rain and winds from the south side of the storm, and Kauai could get some impacts too. Ryan1000 03:01, July 27, 2020 (UTC)
- Douglas is now pulling away from Hawaii, and is losing organization, as the latest satellite imagery shows the circulation becoming exposed on the southwest side of the convection. Likely to fall down to TS strength soon. Ryan1000 19:37, July 27, 2020 (UTC)
Tropical Storm Douglas (2nd time)[]
It's on its way out and has weakened to a TS, currently 70 mph/993 mbar. It has a chance of crossing the IDL and briefly existing in the WPac - if that happens, it would be the first three-basin crosser since Hector. ~ Steve 05:52, July 28, 2020 (UTC)
It's continued to weaken and is now 45 mph/1004 mbar, with the center being completely exposed and no deep convection. I expect dissipation to occur very shortly, which means it shouldn't make it to the WPac as a TS or even a TD (though I might not be surprised if the JMA briefly tracks it as a TD when it crosses the IDL). It's now going to spread tropical storm force winds through the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument (I bet nobody can even spell or pronounce that word). ~ Steve 22:46, July 28, 2020 (UTC)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas[]
Douglas is gone. There's a small bit of thunderstorm activity on the north side of his circulation, but it's not enough to keep him as a tropical cyclone, so NHC issued their last advisory. I gotta say, this is probably Hawaii's closest call in many years; if Douglas had taken a track less than 100 miles further south, he would've passed over almost all of the islands as a strong category 1 hurricane, which would've wrought considerable damage to the islands. But because he narrowly missed to the north, he wasn't as bad as he could've been. Ryan1000 16:02, July 29, 2020 (UTC)
- It's truly a great thing that Hawaii dodged the worst of Douglas's impacts. It could have been much worse. ~ Steve 05:58, July 30, 2020 (UTC)
AOI: Well South of Mexico[]
Another AOI has appeared on the outlook, currently 0/30. Elida anyone? ~ Steve 06:32, July 21, 2020 (UTC)
Down to 0/20...no longer very sure about this becoming Elida. ~ Steve 16:29, July 22, 2020 (UTC)
Down further to 0/10. I bet this will be off the outlook by tomorrow or in a couple days. ~ Steve 20:17, July 23, 2020 (UTC)
And...poof. The next EPac named storm (Elida) might not come until August at this rate while the Atlantic continues to set new records for early storm formation. ~ Steve 06:05, July 26, 2020 (UTC)
AOI: Off Southwestern Mexico[]
Another one has appeared, but it's only 10/10. I don't expect much out of this one as upper-level winds are too unfavorable. I think some of Hanna's remnants might be mixing into this system, possibly fueling it. ~ Steve 05:52, July 28, 2020 (UTC)
- This is now dead. ~ Steve 05:58, July 30, 2020 (UTC)
AOI: 1000 Miles SW of Baja[]
Another one at 10/10, but cooler waters will hamper any development. ~ Steve 05:58, July 30, 2020 (UTC)
R.I.P. Elida is taking a while. C'mon EPac, even the Atlantic is way ahead of you right now. ~ Steve 19:51, July 31, 2020 (UTC)