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| − | |archives = |
+ | |archives = [[Forum:2020 Pacific hurricane season/Archive 1|1]]}} |
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| − | |align=left|'''Monthly Archives''':[[Forum:2020 Pacific hurricane season/Pre-Season-June|Pre-Season-June]], [[/July/]]<br />'''Storm Event Archives''': |
+ | |align=left|'''Monthly Archives''':[[Forum:2020 Pacific hurricane season/Pre-Season-June|Pre-Season-June]], [[Forum:2020 Pacific hurricane season/July|July]], [[Forum:2020 Pacific hurricane season/August|August]], [[Forum:2020 Pacific hurricane season/September-November|September-November]]<br />'''Storm Event Archives''': |
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{{TCBasinNav|year=2020|SHEM=2019-20}} |
{{TCBasinNav|year=2020|SHEM=2019-20}} |
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| + | {{Template:Season Discussions |
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| − | ==Future start== |
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| + | |Basin = Pacific |
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| − | Basin pages are up, and [[Forum:2020 Pacific hurricane season/Betting pools|betting pools]] are too, for the Atlantic and EPac for now. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 04:11, November 14, 2019 (UTC) |
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| + | |Last year = 2019 |
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| + | |TC Name = hurricane |
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| + | |Current Year = 2020 |
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| + | |Next year = 2021}} |
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| − | :I am not sure what the EPAC will bring this year because of the neutral ENSO conditions. However, it would not surprise me if the ACE for 2020 exceeds that of last year. [[User:Andrew444|<span class="button">Andrew</span>]][[User talk:Andrew444|<span class="button">Talk To Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/Andrew444|<span class="button">Contribs</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Andrew444|<span class="button">Mail Me</span>]] 23:53, January 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ::Hopefully the EPac will produce a better season than last year. 2019 had so many failures and weak, short-lived TS's that it was painful to witness. Maybe 2020 will spice things up a bit and produce several nice fishspinning majors, maybe even a harmless C5. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#0BF;">Steve 🎉</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Happy</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">2020!</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">🎆</span>]] 01:30, January 2, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | :::I think this season will be more pathetic than last year :((( .[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 12:17, April 6, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::::The warm-neutral phase from October 2019-February 2020 has officially re-classified as an El Niño event according to NOAA ENSO report.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 07:43, May 6, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | :::::It is now May 15 in UTC time. Happy EPAC (proper) hurricane season! Hopefully, we will see another interesting season! [[User:Andrew444|<span class="button">Andrew</span>]][[User talk:Andrew444|<span class="button">Talk To Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/Andrew444|<span class="button">Contribs</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Andrew444|<span class="button">Mail Me</span>]] 02:05, May 15, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ==Seasonal forecasts== |
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| − | {| border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width: 700px" |
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| − | |Agency |
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| − | |Date of release |
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| − | |Named storms forecast |
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| − | |Hurricanes forecast |
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| − | |Major hurricanes forecast |
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| − | |Accumulated cyclone energy forecast |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/ciclones-tropicales/pronostico-ciclones-tropicales-2020 Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)] (in Spanish) |
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| − | |May 20, 2020 |
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| − | |15-18 |
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| − | |8-10 |
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| − | |4-5 |
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| − | |N/A |
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| − | |- |
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| − | |[https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)] |
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| − | |May 21, 2020 |
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| − | |11-18 |
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| − | |5-10 |
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| − | |1-5 |
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| − | |60% to 135% of Pacific median (60-136) |
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| − | |} |
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| − | After a conversation I had with Steve, I am introducing a new section to all basins in which seasonal forecasts are issued. I believe that seasonal forecasts are a crucial resource to gain a better appreciation of how active a tropical cyclone season may be. In addition, Hurricanes Wiki has never had a separate section for these predictors (until now), and it can be frustrating to create new sections every single time a new forecast is released. I hope the seasonal forecasts section can be used not just in 2020, but in the years to come. |
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| − | |||
| − | In short, whenever an agency issues a new forecast, simply add it to the bottom row of the above table. Be sure to include the link to the forecast, as well as any major information (e.g. date of release, named storms predicted). '''If a forecast is written in a language besides English, please indicate this next to the agency name'''. Please let me know on my wall if you have any further questions. [[User:Andrew444|<span class="button">Andrew</span>]][[User talk:Andrew444|<span class="button">Talk To Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/Andrew444|<span class="button">Contribs</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Andrew444|<span class="button">Mail Me</span>]] 01:33, May 26, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ==August== |
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| − | |||
| − | Is here, but nothing is expected to form in the next five days in the EPac. Even the WPac is still slow...man, the Atlantic is really hogging all the activity in the NHem so far this year. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:51, August 1, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ''A tumbleweed rolls across the EPac and CPac.'' [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 00:37, August 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ===09E.ELIDA=== |
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| − | ====AOI: South of Central America==== |
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| − | ...Which ends now, another AOI has appeared, and is currently at 0/20 on the TWO. Might become Elida. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:22, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Now 0/30. Yeah, this will probably become Elida by next week. This slow season is only going to get the E name, while the Atlantic is WAY ahead with the J name up next over there. Very unusual for the Atlantic to be so ahead at this time of year, as the EPac is usually more active in July and the Atlantic quieter in that month. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:22, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Up to 0/60 now, confidence is increasing. [[User:Nickcoro|Nickcoro]] ([[User talk:Nickcoro|talk]]) 19:58, August 5, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::10/70. The "X" is currently located near Costa Rica, but this system will move northwestward and will likely be "Elida" by the time it's south of Mexico. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 05:49, August 6, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :::Up to 20/80. [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 15:25, August 7, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====91E.INVEST==== |
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| − | Now an invest.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 05:52, August 8, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | Up to 70/90.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 13:28, August 8, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | : This will probably become Elida soon, and is expected to move southwest after moving WNW for some time. The peak intensity expected is uncertain, but this could become a hurricane down the road based on the initial model forecasts we have. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 14:36, August 8, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Tropical Depression Nine-E==== |
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| − | Upgrade to TD.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 02:40, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | : Forecast to become a hurricane, and as I mentioned earlier, turn south later in the forecast period. If this keeps that up in the long run, then this may be a minor threat to Hawaii down the road like Darby 4 years ago, assuming Elida-to-be can hold on to TS status that late in the model runs. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 05:36, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ::Looks like Elida's about to arrive. Currently 35 mph/1007 mbar, with the forecast peak at 85 mph. However, I think this has real potential to turn into a C2, maybe even a major in the strongest scenario. I doubt it will still be a TC when it's near Hawaii though - NHC has it weaken drastically after crossing 120W, though if it encounters another round of favorable conditions in the very long run, maybe it's still slightly possible. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:31, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ====Tropical Storm Elida==== |
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| − | Elida is finally here.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 11:19, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :Already up to 65 mph/998 mbar. It is quickly intensifying... A major looking more and more likely now. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:25, August 10, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ====Hurricane Elida==== |
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| − | This happened. 75mph, 990mb. [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 21:05, August 10, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : Elida is no longer forecast to turn south late in her forecast, so this is no longer any sort of long-term threat to Hawaii. Moreover, Elida has had some dry air intrusion over her northern eyewall lately, which will probably keep this from becoming a major hurricane before unfavorable conditions kick in after 36 hours or so, though minimal cat 2 is still possible. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 04:38, August 11, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | ::Now 85 mph/983 mbar per the latest advisory. Forecast peak is 90 mph. Hopefully it fights the dry air and becomes a C2. I'd be surprised to see it become a major at this point. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:12, August 11, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | :: |
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| − | |||
| − | ::90mph/980mBar.[[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 13:24, August 11, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ===AOI: Near the CPac=== |
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| − | First of 2 new AOIs on the 5 day. Currently 0/20. Maybe it'll become Hone? ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:31, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | Up to 0/50. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:25, August 10, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | : 20/70. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 04:38, August 11, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ===AOI: Off the SW coast of Mexico=== |
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| − | The second of two new 5 day AOIs. Currently 0/30, and the yellow crayon is currently scribbled over where TD Nine-E (future Elida) is now. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:31, August 9, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | Up to 0/50. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 06:25, August 10, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | : 0/70. The EPac is bubbling up quite a bit, after the below-average July that we had, with this, the CPac AOI, and the one south of Central America all looking likely to develop. We could get to Genevieve and a CPac name (or Hernan) if all 3 of these form. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 04:38, August 11, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ===AOI: South of Central America=== |
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| − | Another AOI joins the train. 0/20 for now. [[User:Nickcoro|Nickcoro]] ([[User talk:Nickcoro|talk]]) 18:03, August 10, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | : 0/40. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 04:38, August 11, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ==Retirements at a Glance== |
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| − | ===Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions=== |
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| − | *Amanda - 35% - Based on the damage totals from Amanda in El Salvador, she is currently the third-costliest tropical cyclone on record in the country's history, after Hurricanes Paul and Mitch, and given Central America's lower retirement standards than the U.S. or Mexico, having retired Alma, the name Amanda replaced, only 12 years ago, there's a chance we might not be seeing Amanda again in 2026, though it's not a certainty. |
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| − | *Boris - 0% - Our yearly epic fail. Better luck in 2026. |
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| − | *Cristina - 0% - She was soooo close to being a hurricane, but she fell short...reanalysis could upgrade her, but all things said, it was still a fishspinner. |
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| − | *Douglas - 5% - Thankfully, Douglas narrowly missed the Hawaiian islands to the north, and so damage wasn't as bad as it could've been; also no deaths were reported either. Had Douglas passed only slightly further south, this could've been a lot worse for Hawaii. |
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| − | *Elida - ?? - Still active, but likely to remain away from Mexico. |
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| − | That's all for now. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 16:08, June 4, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ===Beatissima's Retirement Predictions=== |
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| − | *TD One-E/"TD April" - N/A |
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| − | *TS Amanda - 50% |
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| − | *TS Boris - 0% |
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| − | *TD Four-E - N/A |
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| − | *TS Cristina - 0% |
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| − | *TD Six-E - N/A |
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| − | *TD Seven-E - N/A |
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| − | *C4 Douglas - 0% |
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| − | *C1 Elida - active |
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| − | [[User:Beatissima|Beatissima]] ([[User talk:Beatissima|talk]]) 20:09, June 15, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | === Bluecaner's Retirement Predictions === |
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| − | |||
| − | (Grades - Z F D C B A S SS) |
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| − | |||
| − | :Storm - Nickname - Retirement odds (description) - Bluecaner want (description) - Grade (description) |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="blue">One-E</font>''' - '''<font color="blue">April-E</font>''' - <font color="grey">N/A</font> - You cant retire numbers! (no want) - '''<font color="cyan">A</font>''' If this were stronger and named it would be S, but it sits at A (April). This would be skipped normally but it broke a record. April-E was awesome! |
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| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Amanda</font>''' - '''<font color="cyan">Cristobal?</font>''' - <font color="yellow">30%</font> - Did a number on El Salvador, and Alma was retired, but Agatha wasn't, and Paul, which had a major affect on El Salvador, also wasn't retired. I expect to see this in 2026. - <font color="green">Yes</font> I want this retired, but I don't entirely expect this to happen. - '''<font color="red">F</font>''' Weak Fail that did damage, but it did lead to Cristobal, so it got lucky. |
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| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Boris</font>''' - '''<font color="cyan">Bore-is</font>''' - <font color="blue">0%</font> No impacts really <font color="red">No</font> No impacts why - '''<font color="maroon">Z</font>''' EPac really failing this year. |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="blue">Four-E</font>''' - '''<font color="blue">Failure!</font>''' - <font color="grey">N/A</font> - You cant retire numbers! (no want) - '''<font color="maroon">Z</font>''' I hate this. |
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| − | |||
| − | :* '''<font color="cyan">Cristina</font>''' - '''<font color="yellow">Hurricane Cristina</font>''' - <font color="blue">0%</font> No impact <font color="red">No</font> No impacts - '''<font color="green">D</font>''' Grade will be updated if it becomes a hurricane, but, I- |
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| − | |||
| − | - [[User:Bluecaner|<span style="color:blue;">'''Blue'''</span><span style="color:teal;">'''caner'''</span>]] ([[User talk:Bluecaner|talk]]) |
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| − | |||
| − | {{clear}} |
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| − | |||
| − | === Chosen Wizard's 2020 Storm Name Retirement Chances - Pacific Hurricane: === |
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| − | ''The ePAC finally gets a hurricane...'' |
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| − | |||
| − | {{clear}} |
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| − | I'm coloring the storm names now based on their strength, so: |
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| − | '''<font color="green">TS, </font>''' |
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| − | '''<font color="orange">C1 & C2, </font>''' |
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| − | '''<font color="red">C3 & C4, </font>''' |
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| − | '''<font color="maroon">C5 (up to 199 mph), </font>''' |
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| − | '''<font color="black">200+ mph C5, </font>''' |
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| − | '''<font color="indigo">Subtropical Storm. </font>''' |
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| − | |||
| − | * '''<font color="green">Tropical Storm Amanda</font>''' - Really bad rain, really bad flooding. Also led to Cristobal. (25%) |
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| − | * '''<font color="green">Tropical Storm <strike> Boris</strike> ''THREE''</font>''' - Why? (0%) |
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| − | * '''<font color="green">Tropical Storm Cristina</font>''' - Too lazy to become a hurricane. (0%) |
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| − | * '''<font color="red">Hurricane Douglas</font>''' - REACHED CAT 4 INTENSITY and ended the boring fest. Impacted Hawaii, and thankfully not bringing hurricane force winds to the island. Retirement chances still in the double digits nonetheless. (10%) |
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| − | [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|'''''<font color="sky blue">Chosen Wizard</font>''''']] ([[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|<font color="black">⛅ NERD</font>]]) ([https://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/IbAHAn1829tree <font color="black">Inputs</font>]) 14:37, July 30, 2020 (UTC) |
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| − | |||
| − | ===Steve's Retirement Predictions=== |
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| − | Once I find the time and motivation I might expand this with tabs, future outlook, etc. |
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| − | |||
| − | <u>'''Intensity colors (SSHWS, 1-min winds):'''</u> <font color="#5ebaff">'''TD/SD (≤35 mph, ≤30 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#00faf4">'''Weak TS/SS (40-50 mph, 35-45 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ccffff">'''Strong TS/SS (ALWAYS USED REGARDLESS OF BASIN) (60-70 mph, 50-60 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ffffcc">'''C1 (75-90 mph, 65-80 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ffe775">'''C2 (100-110 mph, 85-95 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ffc140">'''C3 (115-125 mph, 100-110 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ff8f20">'''C4 (130-155 mph, 115-135 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#ff6060">'''C5 (160-180 mph, 140-155 knots)'''</font>, <font color="#992040">'''BEAST MODE (185+ mph, 160+ knots)'''</font> |
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| − | |||
| − | <u>'''Retirement percentage colors:'''</u> <font color="#AAA">'''0%''' or '''N/A'''</font>; <font color="#95A">'''0.000...1-0.4%'''</font>, <font color="#60A">'''0.5-0.9%'''</font>, <font color="#30A">'''1-4%'''</font>, <font color="#00A">'''5%-9%'''</font>, <font color="#05A">'''10-14%'''</font>, <font color="#0AA">'''15-19%'''</font>, <font color="#0A5">'''20-24%'''</font>, <font color="#0A0">'''25-29%'''</font>, <font color="#3B0">'''30-34%'''</font>, <font color="#6C0">'''35-39%'''</font>, <font color="#9D0">'''40-44%'''</font>, <font color="#CE0">'''45-49%'''</font>, <font color="#FF0">'''50%'''</font>, <font color="#FC0">'''51-54%'''</font>, <font color="#F90">'''55-59%'''</font>, <font color="#F60">'''60-64%'''</font>, <font color="#F30">'''65-69%'''</font>, <font color="#F00">'''70-74%'''</font>, <font color="#D00">'''75-79%'''</font>, <font color="#B00">'''80-84%'''</font>, <font color="#900">'''85-89%'''</font>, <font color="#700">'''90-94%'''</font>, <font color="#500">'''95-98%'''</font>, <font color="#300">'''99-99.999...%'''</font>; <font color="#100">'''100%'''</font>; <font color="#000">'''TBA''' (active storms only)</font> |
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| − | |||
| − | <u>'''Grading colors:'''</u> <font color="gold">'''SSS'''</font>, <font color="silver">'''SS'''</font>, <font color="bronze">'''S'''</font>, <font color="#50F">'''A+'''</font>, <font color="#00F">'''A'''</font>, <font color="#05F">'''A-'''</font>, <font color="#0AF">'''B+'''</font>, <font color="#0FF">'''B'''</font>, <font color="#0FA">'''B-'''</font>, <font color="#0F5">'''C+'''</font>, <font color="#0F0">'''C'''</font>, <font color="#5F0">'''C-'''</font>, <font color="#AF0">'''D+'''</font>, <font color="#FF0">'''D'''</font>, <font color="#FA0">'''D-'''</font>, <font color="#F50">'''E'''</font>, <font color="#F00">'''F'''</font>, <font color="#A00">'''F-'''</font>, <font color="#500">'''Z'''</font>, <font color="#000">'''🤦🏻♂️'''</font>, <font color="#000">'''TBA''' (active storms only)</font> |
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| − | ---- |
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| − | PTCs are not included. TDs are included for grading purposes only. |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#5ebaff">'''One-E'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#AAA">'''N/A'''</font> |
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| − | **Grading: <font color="#AF0">'''D+'''</font> - Good job forming in April, breaking the record by 2 weeks! Though because you were only a depression I can't give you any higher than a D :( |
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| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#00faf4">'''Amanda'''</font>: |
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| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#9D0">'''40%'''</font> - Significant impacts in Central America, could pull an Alma. However, it seems a bit more likely than not for it to stay. |
||
| − | **Grading: <font color="#500">'''Z'''</font> - Extremely weak and short-lived... not a fan. |
||
| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#00faf4">'''Boris'''</font>: |
||
| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#AAA">'''0%'''</font> - Why would this fishspinner be retired? |
||
| − | **Grading: <font color="#A00">'''F-'''</font> - Did a little better than Amanda longevity-wise, but still only peaked at 40 mph and was a pathetic steal of a name. Became only the second June TC in the CPac on record BTW. |
||
| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#5ebaff">'''Four-E'''</font>: |
||
| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#AAA">'''N/A'''</font> |
||
| − | **Grading: <font color="#000">'''🤦🏻♂️'''</font> - If you blinked you missed it! |
||
| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#ccffff">'''Cristina'''</font>: |
||
| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#AAA">'''0%'''</font> - No one was affected at all, except for maybe surfers along the Mexican coastline. |
||
| − | **Grading: <font color="#F50">'''E'''</font> - Pretty much a failure due to the repeated predictions expecting it to become a hurricane. But I'm too generous for now to give it a straight up "F"; it looked very nice for a time on satellite and might have even been a brief hurricane for a time. If post-analysis upgrades it, the grade will be changed to a "C". |
||
| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#5ebaff">'''Six-E'''</font>: |
||
| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#AAA">'''N/A'''</font> |
||
| − | **Grading: <font color="#500">'''Z'''</font> - At least it lasted a bit longer than Four-E... |
||
| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#5ebaff">'''Seven-E'''</font>: |
||
| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#AAA">'''N/A'''</font> |
||
| − | **Grading: <font color="#500">'''Z'''</font> - Yet another unnamed TD that will be forgotten. |
||
| − | |||
| − | *<font color="#FF8F20">'''Douglas'''</font>: |
||
| − | **Retirement prediction: <font color="#00A">'''5%'''</font> - Threatened Hawaii for a while, but they ended up getting little impacts at all as it passed just to the north. Once the damage totals are released, the percentage might become even lower. |
||
| − | **Grading: <font color="#00F">'''A'''</font> - Good job becoming the first major and C4 of the season, and for dodging a landfall in Hawaii! |
||
| − | |||
| − | ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev|<span style="color:#00F;">Ste</span>]][[User:StevDev|<span style="color:#F00;">ve 🎆</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Happy</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">Independence Day!</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">🇺🇸</span>]] 05:23, July 4, 2020 (UTC) (last updated 20:21, July 31, 2020 (UTC)) |
||
| − | |||
| − | ===Nickcoro's Retirement Predictions=== |
||
| − | '''Grading:<font color="maroon"> Z,</font><font color="Purple"> </font><font color="Indigo">F, </font><font color="red">D, </font><font color="ff6060">C, </font><font color="orange">B, </font><font color="#ffe775">A,</font><font color="Yellow"> </font><font color="Pink">S.</font>''' |
||
| − | *'''<font color="blue">One-E</font>''' - '''<font color="#ffe775">A</font>''' - Earliest storm in Eastern Pacific. That alone gives it an A. If it was a TS it would certainly be a S. As it is, an incredible storm nonetheless (N/A%) |
||
| − | *'''<font color="cyan">Amanda</font>''' - '''<font color="Indigo">F </font>'''- Extremely weak storm. It later led to the formation of Cristobal, but on its way caused significant heavy rain impacts in Central America. Those impacts may get it retired, but its rather unlikely. (30%) |
||
| − | *'''<font color="cyan">Boris</font>''' - '''<font color="Indigo">F</font>''' - Also very weak. Did last some time, and was only the second storm to enter the Central Pacific in June. Still a pathetic storm though. (0%) |
||
| − | *'''<font color="blue">Four-E</font>''' - '''<font color="maroon">Z</font>''' - Lasted 3 advisories before dying. Absoulutly pointless storm. (N/A%) |
||
| − | *'''<font color="cyan">Cristina</font>''' - '''<font color="red">D</font>''' - Had the potential to get much stronger than it did, potentially to major hurricane strengh. It instead stayed a tropical storm. In reanalysis this could be upgraded to C1, and that would probably give it a C, but even then, this storm had so much wasted potential. (0%) |
||
| − | *'''<font color="blue">Six-E</font>''' - '''<font color="maroon">Z</font>''' - Why, just why. (N/A%) |
||
| − | *'''<font color="blue">Seven-E</font>''' - '''<font color="maroon">Z</font>''' - Are you serious East Pacific? (N/A%) |
||
| − | *<font color="#FF8F20">'''Douglas'''</font> - '''<font color="#ffe775">A</font>''' - The East Pacific finally decided to create a strong storm. A well formed C4 that ended up being a smaller impact to Hawaii then expected. This makes it a fantastic storm. It was quite long lasting as well. (10%) |
||
| − | [[User:Nickcoro|Nickcoro]] ([[User talk:Nickcoro|talk]]) 22:39, July 14, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| − | |||
| − | ===Harveycane's retirement predictions and grades=== |
||
| − | I'll organize it later. Right now I just want to get the important thoughts out. |
||
| − | |||
| − | * One-E - B - 0% - Cool pre-season storm, especially the fact that it is the earliest forming storm in the eastern pacific proper, hence the high grade for a tropical depression. If it were a tropical storm or even stronger, I would've upped the grade. I feel a bit generous but whatever. |
||
| − | * Amanda - F - 25% - Just a weak failure in general, in addition to impacts that were only worsened with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic - 33 deaths, around $200 million in damages. I can't rule out retirement, but she's setting herself at high stakes right here. |
||
| − | * Boris - F - 0% - At least he lasted a few days or so, but it was just another weak failure and a name stealer. All in all very forgetful. |
||
| − | * Four-E - Z - 0% - I forgot about this storm. Does anyone remember what it was? No but seriously, this thing didn't even last half a whole day. |
||
| − | * Cristina - E - 0% - We actually thought she would be a high end category 2 hurricane, but it couldn't even become a hurricane! I do think Christina was a category 1 for a very short time, and I will up the grade if it does get upped in post analysis, but right now it sits right here at the E grade. |
||
| − | * Six-E - F - 0% - Just like Four-E, short lived and forgetful. |
||
| − | * Douglas - A - 2% - Expected to become a C1 at most when I first saw its forecast, but instead, it unexpectedly intensified to a category 4 hurricane! Unfortunately for us, we did get threatened, but the good news is that it just barely hit us and headed north away from Hawaii. Well done, Douglas! |
||
| − | * Elida - ? - ? - Currently active. Expected to peak as a 100 mph .C2 |
||
| − | [[User:Harveycane|<span style="font-size: 15px; color:#00d8ff">'''Harveycane'''</span>]] [[Message Wall:Harveycane|<span style="font-size: 15px; color: #3333ff">'''(Talk |'''</span>]][[Special:Contributions/Harveycane|<span style="font-size: 15px; color:#3333ff"> '''Contributions)'''</span>]] 23:50, July 18, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| − | |||
| − | ==Replacement Names== |
||
| − | ===Female "A" names (Potentially for Amanda)=== |
||
| − | Considering the considerable damage wrought in El Salvador from Tropical Storm Amanda, there is a decent chance Amanda might be retired after this year, so what do you guys think will replace her, assuming she is retired? Here are some suggestions: |
||
| − | *Amy |
||
| − | *Anastasia |
||
| − | *Annabelle |
||
| − | *Ariana |
||
| − | *Amelia |
||
| − | *Alyssa |
||
| − | *Alexandria |
||
| − | *Alice |
||
| − | *Ava |
||
| − | *Alexa |
||
| − | *Alexis |
||
| − | *Alaina |
||
| − | *Ayla |
||
| − | *Amaya |
||
| − | *Abigail |
||
| − | *Athena |
||
| − | *Audrey |
||
| − | *Agnes |
||
| − | *Alicia |
||
| − | *Allison |
||
| − | My favorite name among these is Ariana, but Amy, Alexis, Alice, Alyssa, and others are good too. Names like Audrey, Agnes, Alicia, and Allison would be my last choices since they were already retired in the Atlantic, though we do have some formerly retired Atlantic names in the EPac, like Celia, Dora, and Hilda, so it's not impossible those names could be picked. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 16:08, June 4, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| − | :I would like to see Ava return to the EPac name list to be honest. [[User:Anonymous 2.0|Jas (Anonymous 2.0)]] ([[User talk:Anonymous 2.0|talk]]) 23:55, June 4, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| − | |||
| − | ::''Ariana'' is also my preferred pick from the list above <small>(assuming Ariana Grande does not mind her name being on the list)</small>. I still think of the Category 5 hurricane from 1973 when I hear the name ''Ava''. Also, here are some more options to replace ''Amanda'': |
||
| − | |||
| − | ::*Amber |
||
| − | ::*Amada |
||
| − | ::*Aiyana |
||
| − | ::*Abby (used in the Atlantic and WPAC) |
||
| − | ::*Abigail |
||
| − | ::*Annette (was on the old EPAC naming list) |
||
| − | ::*Aubrey |
||
| − | ::*Adeline |
||
| − | ::*Alessia |
||
| − | ::*Angelique |
||
| − | ::*Angelica |
||
| − | |||
| − | ::[[User:Andrew444|<span class="button">Andrew</span>]][[User talk:Andrew444|<span class="button">Talk To Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/Andrew444|<span class="button">Contribs</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/Andrew444|<span class="button">Mail Me</span>]] 19:48, June 5, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| − | I already mentioned Abigail, but I forgot about Amber and Angelica, those would be nice picks as well. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 21:37, June 5, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| − | |||
| − | What about Annie ? That name fits the list theme. [[User:Bill2903|ʙɪʟʟ2903]] ([[User talk:Bill2903|talk]]) 22:30, June 5, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| − | : Annie might be close to Ana, but so is Annabelle, and given the WMO's track record of putting similar names on the Atlantic and EPac lists (i.e. Frank and Franklin, Marty and Martin, Danny and Daniel), it's a possibility. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 01:33, June 6, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| − | |||
| − | :: Ryan, I'm unsure if El Salvador will really retire Amanda. It was Costa Rica which retired Alma, and much of Amanda's damage occured in Guatemala (remember Agatha 2010?) and Mexico (which is infamous for its track record. Further, Paul of 1982, which killed over a thousand people in El Salvador, somehow survived the boot. Even Selma from 2017 didn't get the boot. As a result, I think Amanda might stay. ''[[User:JavaHurricane| <span style = "color:green">Java</span>]][[User talk:JavaHurricane|<span style = "color:red">Hurricane</span>]]'' 05:00, June 6, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| − | Um Java, [[wikipedia:Tropical Storm Amanda (2020)|the article]] says that the 200 million USD in damage from Amanda is from El Salvador, not from Guatemala. Obviously Guatemala's track record isn't the best, having snubbed storms like Aletta of 1982 and Agatha of 2010, but El Salvador might be a different story, as destructive storms are less common there...also, Paul wasn't a named storm when it struck Central America, but was a depression, which likely explains his snub. Selma did kill 17, but they were in Honduras and Nicaragua, and damage in El Salvador from Selma was minimal. I know it's a bit of a long shot, but the damage in El Salvador from Amanda isn't negligible, and it might be retired, though it's not a certainty. Hence why I put the header to "potentially for Amanda". '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 06:49, June 6, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| − | |||
| − | If Amanda is retired, my favorite names to replace it with include Ariana (Grande gets her own hurricane name lol), Amy, Annabelle, Amelia, Alice, Amber, Angelica, and Abigail. The NHC might hesitate to consider ''Ava'' due to the C5 hurricane bearing that name in 1973. I don't think it's as likely an Atlantic retired name will be picked, but if they do pick one, I'd like to see ''Alicia'' be chosen since it is my older sister's name. ~ '''<font face="Verdana">[[User:StevDev |<span style="color:#40B;">Steve</span>]]</font>''' [[Message Wall:StevDev #top|<span class="button">Message Me</span>]][[Special:Contributions/StevDev|<span class="button">My Edits</span>]][[Special:EmailUser/StevDev|<span class="button">📧</span>]] 01:20, June 7, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| − | |||
| − | If Amanda is retired, I REALLY want it to be replaced by Anastasia or Annastasia (however you want to spell it). Although it might be somewhat similar to Ana, I wouldn't really care. ~ [[User:Bluecaner|<span style="color:blue;">'''Blue'''</span><span style="color:teal;">'''caner'''</span>]] ([[User talk:Bluecaner|talk]]) (18:07 UTC, June 24th) |
||
==Post-Season Changes== |
==Post-Season Changes== |
||
{| border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width: 820px" |
{| border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width: 820px" |
||
| Line 293: | Line 26: | ||
|June 30, 2020 |
|June 30, 2020 |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP022020_Amanda.pdf Amanda] |
||
| − | |Amanda |
||
|40 mph, 1003 mbars, May 30-31 |
|40 mph, 1003 mbars, May 30-31 |
||
| + | |40 mph, 1003 mbars, May 30-31 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
| + | |September 10, 2020 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032020_Boris.pdf Boris] |
||
| − | |Boris |
||
|40 mph, 1005 mbars, June 24-28 |
|40 mph, 1005 mbars, June 24-28 |
||
| + | |40 mph, 1005 mbars, June 24-27 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
| + | |January 13, 2021 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP042020_Four-E.pdf Four-E] |
||
| − | |Four-E |
||
|35 mph, 1004 mbars, June 30 |
|35 mph, 1004 mbars, June 30 |
||
| + | |30 mph, 1006 mbars, June 29-30 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
| + | |March 15, 2021 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052020_Cristina.pdf Cristina] |
||
| − | |Cristina |
||
|70 mph, 993 mbars, July 6-13 |
|70 mph, 993 mbars, July 6-13 |
||
| + | |70 mph, 993 mbars, July 6-12 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
| + | |November 13, 2020 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP062020_Six-E.pdf Six-E] |
||
| − | |Six-E |
||
|35 mph, 1007 mbars, July 13-14 |
|35 mph, 1007 mbars, July 13-14 |
||
| + | |35 mph, 1007 mbars, July 13-14 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
| + | |December 20, 2020 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP072020_Unnamed.pdf Seven-E] |
||
| − | |Seven-E |
||
|35 mph, 1007 mbars, July 20-21 |
|35 mph, 1007 mbars, July 20-21 |
||
| + | |40 mph, 1006 mbars, July 20-21 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
| + | |December 8, 2020 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP082020_Douglas.pdf Douglas] |
||
| − | |Douglas |
||
|130 mph, 954 mbars, July 20-29 |
|130 mph, 954 mbars, July 20-29 |
||
| + | |130 mph, 954 mbars, July 20-28 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
| + | |November 21, 2020 |
||
| − | |N/A |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092020_Elida.pdf Elida] |
||
| + | |100 mph, 975 mbars, August 9-13 |
||
| + | |105 mph, 971 mbars, August 8-12 |
||
| + | |October 24, 2020 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102020_Ten-E.pdf Ten-E] |
||
| + | |35 mph, 1004 mbars, August 13-16 |
||
| + | |35 mph, 1004 mbars, August 13-16 |
||
| + | |January 4, 2021 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP112020_Fausto.pdf Fausto] |
||
| + | |40 mph, 1004 mbars, August 16-17 |
||
| + | |40 mph, 1004 mbars, August 16-17 |
||
| + | |February 10, 2021 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP122020_Genevieve.pdf Genevieve] |
||
| + | |130 mph, 950 mbars, August 16-21 |
||
| + | |130 mph, 950 mbars, August 16-21 |
||
| + | |April 13, 2021 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP132020_Hernan.pdf Hernan] |
||
| + | |45 mph, 1001 mbars, August 26-28 |
||
| + | |45 mph, 1001 mbars, August 26-28 |
||
| + | |March 17, 2021 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142020_Iselle.pdf Iselle] |
||
| + | |60 mph, 997 mbars, August 26-30 |
||
| + | |60 mph, 997 mbars, August 26-30 |
||
| + | |February 1, 2021 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP152020_Julio.pdf Julio] |
||
| + | |45 mph, 1003 mbars, September 5-7 |
||
| + | |45 mph, 1004 mbars, September 5-7 |
||
| + | |January 20, 2021 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP162020_Karina.pdf Karina] |
||
| + | |60 mph, 996 mbars, September 13-17 |
||
| + | |60 mph, 996 mbars, September 12-16 |
||
| + | |January 29, 2021 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP172020_Lowell.pdf Lowell] |
||
| + | |50 mph, 999 mbars, Sep. 20-25 |
||
| + | |50 mph, 1001 mbars, Sep. 20-25 |
||
| + | |December 2, 2020 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP182020_Marie.pdf Marie] |
||
| + | |130 mph, 947 mbars, Sept. 29-Oct.7 |
||
| + | |140 mph, 945 mbars, Sept. 29-Oct.6 |
||
| + | |February 18, 2021 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP192020_Norbert.pdf Norbert] |
||
| + | |50 mph, 1001 mbars, Oct. 5-10/13-15 |
||
| + | |60 mph, 1000 mbars, Oct. 5-9/13-14 |
||
| + | |March 15, 2021 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202020_Odalys.pdf Odalys] |
||
| + | |50 mph, 1000 mbars, November 3-6 |
||
| + | |50 mph, 1000 mbars, November 3-5 |
||
| + | |April 13, 2021 |
||
| + | |- |
||
| + | |[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP212020_Polo.pdf Polo] |
||
| + | |45 mph, 1004 mbars, November 17-19 |
||
| + | |45 mph, 1004 mbars, November 17-19 |
||
| + | |March 17, 2021 |
||
|} |
|} |
||
About two weeks ago, the NHC completed their first TCR of the 2020 season, and it's for One-E. No changes were made to the intensity of the storm, but the advisory timing was changed; NHC operationally declared it at 1500 UTC on the 25th, but reanalysis suggests it was a depression at 0600 UTC that day. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 04:10, July 13, 2020 (UTC) |
About two weeks ago, the NHC completed their first TCR of the 2020 season, and it's for One-E. No changes were made to the intensity of the storm, but the advisory timing was changed; NHC operationally declared it at 1500 UTC on the 25th, but reanalysis suggests it was a depression at 0600 UTC that day. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 04:10, July 13, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| + | :Over two and a half months later, the second TCR of the season has been completed (actually completed on September 10th, but only published today), this time for Amanda. Again, no changes to the intensity, but instead to the timing. Operationally declared as a TD at 2100 UTC on May 30th, but reanalysis suggests it became one at 1800 UTC on that same day. She also made landfall earlier, at 1000 URC on the 31st compared to 1200 UTC operationally, and peaked 3 hours earlier, 0600 UTC compared to 0900 UTC operationally. [[User:Nutfield001|Nutfield001]] ([[User talk:Nutfield001|talk]]) 19:21, September 18, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| + | Elida's TCR is out, four days after it was completed. Adjustments have been made to her formation time, having actually formed at 1800 UTC on August 8th, in comparison to 0300 UTC on August 9th operationally, and most notably her intensity, with reanalysis suggesting she was a 105mph hurricane with a central pressure reading of 971mb, not 100mph and 975mb as was originally thought. [[User:Nutfield001|Nutfield001]] ([[User talk:Nutfield001|talk]]) 02:01, October 28, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| + | : Also, the TCR says it dissipated on the 12th, not the 13th. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 15:37, October 28, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| + | Cristina's TCR is out, albeit completed a week ago. No intensity upgrade, sadly, plus it became a low on the 12th July, not the 13th. [[User:Nutfield001|Nutfield001]] ([[User talk:Nutfield001|talk]]) 22:59, November 20, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| + | :Douglas's TCR was completed a few days ago but released today. No change in windspeed or pressure but lifespan was shortened. <span style="border:2px double blue;"><span style="background-color:red">[[User:Roy25|<span style="color:blue"> '''''~ Roy25''''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double green;"><span style="background-color:yellow">[[Message Wall:Roy25|<span style="color:green"> '''Talk'''</span>]] <span style="color:green">'''|'''</span> [[Special:Contributions/Roy25|<span style="color:green">'''Contributions''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double purple;"><span style="background-color:pink"><span style="color:purple"> '''21:16, December 01, 2020 (UTC)''' </span></span></span> |
||
| + | Lowell's TCR has been released having only been completed yesterday. No changes to the duration or its windspeed but its pressure is up by 2 mb. [[User:Nutfield001|Nutfield001]] ([[User talk:Nutfield001|talk]]) 22:21, December 3, 2020 (UTC) |
||
| + | :Seven-E's TCR has een released and was upgraded to an unnamed tropical storm. So we have Tropical Storm Seven-E. <span style="border:2px double blue;"><span style="background-color:red">[[User:Roy25|<span style="color:blue"> '''''~ Roy25''''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double green;"><span style="background-color:yellow">[[Message Wall:Roy25|<span style="color:green"> '''Talk'''</span>]] <span style="color:green">'''|'''</span> [[Special:Contributions/Roy25|<span style="color:green">'''Contributions''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double purple;"><span style="background-color:pink"><span style="color:purple"> '''15:01, December 11, 2020 (UTC)''' </span></span></span> |
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| + | Interesting...not every day a tropical depression gets buffed to a TS in reanalysis, the last time that happened in the EPac was, I believe, tropical storm one-e in 1996. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 16:00, December 11, 2020 (UTC) |
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| + | :TCRs for Six-E and Ten-E are out with no change for both depressions, although Six-E's was completed on December 20 while Ten-E's was completed on January 4. <span style="border:2px double blue;"><span style="background-color:red">[[User:Roy25|<span style="color:blue"> '''''~ Roy25''''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double green;"><span style="background-color:yellow">[[Message Wall:Roy25|<span style="color:green"> '''Talk'''</span>]] <span style="color:green">'''|'''</span> [[Special:Contributions/Roy25|<span style="color:green">'''Contributions''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double purple;"><span style="background-color:pink"><span style="color:purple"> '''23:39, January 07, 2021 (UTC)''' </span></span></span> |
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| + | Julio's TCR is out (completed on Jan 20). Only change was the increase of pressure by 1 mbar. <span style="border:2px double blue;"><span style="background-color:red">[[User:Roy25|<span style="color:blue"> '''''~ Roy25''''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double green;"><span style="background-color:yellow">[[Message Wall:Roy25|<span style="color:green"> '''Talk'''</span>]] <span style="color:green">'''|'''</span> [[Special:Contributions/Roy25|<span style="color:green">'''Contributions''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double purple;"><span style="background-color:pink"><span style="color:purple"> '''21:07, January 22, 2021 (UTC)''' </span></span></span> |
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| + | :Iselle's TCR is out. Not that much change in it. The TCR was completed yesterday. <span style="border:2px double blue;"><span style="background-color:red">[[User:Roy25|<span style="color:blue"> '''''~ Roy25''''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double green;"><span style="background-color:yellow">[[Message Wall:Roy25|<span style="color:green"> '''Talk'''</span>]] <span style="color:green">'''|'''</span> [[Special:Contributions/Roy25|<span style="color:green">'''Contributions''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double purple;"><span style="background-color:pink"><span style="color:purple"> '''15:01, February 02, 2021 (UTC)''' </span></span></span> |
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| + | ::Boris' TCR is posted on the web, although it was completed on Jan 13. Duration was shortened but overall, not that much change. <span style="border:2px double blue;"><span style="background-color:red">[[User:Roy25|<span style="color:blue"> '''''~ Roy25''''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double green;"><span style="background-color:yellow">[[Message Wall:Roy25|<span style="color:green"> '''Talk'''</span>]] <span style="color:green">'''|'''</span> [[Special:Contributions/Roy25|<span style="color:green">'''Contributions''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double purple;"><span style="background-color:pink"><span style="color:purple"> '''15:00, February 03, 2021 (UTC)''' </span></span></span> |
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| + | Fausto and Karina's TCRs are out. Fausto's was completed today and not too much change. Karina's was completed on January 29 and its time frame was shifted. <span style="border:2px double blue;"><span style="background-color:red">[[User:Roy25|<span style="color:blue"> '''''~ Roy25''''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double green;"><span style="background-color:yellow">[[Message Wall:Roy25|<span style="color:green"> '''Talk'''</span>]] <span style="color:green">'''|'''</span> [[Special:Contributions/Roy25|<span style="color:green">'''Contributions''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double purple;"><span style="background-color:pink"><span style="color:purple"> '''17:46, February 10, 2021 (UTC)''' </span></span></span> |
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| + | :Marie's TCR is out, which was completed yesterday. Changes includes an increase of maximum wind speed to 140 mph, a drop of minimum pressure to 945 mbars, and duration was shortened. <span style="border:2px double blue;"><span style="background-color:red">[[User:Roy25|<span style="color:blue"> '''''~ Roy25''''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double green;"><span style="background-color:yellow">[[Message Wall:Roy25|<span style="color:green"> '''Talk'''</span>]] <span style="color:green">'''|'''</span> [[Special:Contributions/Roy25|<span style="color:green">'''Contributions''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double purple;"><span style="background-color:pink"><span style="color:purple"> '''15:43, February 19, 2021 (UTC)''' </span></span></span> |
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| + | ::Polo's TCR is out and completed today. No significant change to duration and intensity. <span style="border:2px double blue;"><span style="background-color:red">[[User:Roy25|<span style="color:blue"> '''''~ Roy25''''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double green;"><span style="background-color:yellow">[[Message Wall:Roy25|<span style="color:green"> '''Talk'''</span>]] <span style="color:green">'''|'''</span> [[Special:Contributions/Roy25|<span style="color:green">'''Contributions''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double purple;"><span style="background-color:pink"><span style="color:purple"> '''23:42, March 17, 2021 (UTC)''' </span></span></span> |
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| + | :::Hernan's TCR is out, completed yesterday. Also not that much change to duration and intensity. Four-E's TCR is also out with with its duration extended to the 29th, maximum wind speed downgraded to 30 mph, and pressure up to 1006 mbars. Norbert's TCR is also out with changes to duration during both stages as TC. Max wind speed has been upped to 60 mph and pressure changed to 1000 mbars<span style="border:2px double blue;"><span style="background-color:red">[[User:Roy25|<span style="color:blue"> '''''~ Roy25''''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double green;"><span style="background-color:yellow">[[Message Wall:Roy25|<span style="color:green"> '''Talk'''</span>]] <span style="color:green">'''|'''</span> [[Special:Contributions/Roy25|<span style="color:green">'''Contributions''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double purple;"><span style="background-color:pink"><span style="color:purple"> '''20:35, March 18, 2021 (UTC)''' </span></span></span> |
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| + | Guess that leaves just Genevieve and Odalys for the 2020 EPac TCR’s. I predicted genny would be last, and considering it was the only named storm (besides Amanda, whose TCR was finished a while back) to cause any impact on land this year, it probably will come out after Odalys. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 21:49, 18 March 2021 (UTC) |
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| + | :The final two TCRs of the 2020 EPAC season - Genevieve and Odalys - are out, both completed yesterday. No significant changes to Genevieve while Odalys was found to dissipated earlier. <span style="border:2px double blue;"><span style="background-color:red">[[User:Roy25|<span style="color:blue"> '''''~ Roy25''''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double green;"><span style="background-color:yellow">[[Message Wall:Roy25|<span style="color:green"> '''Talk'''</span>]] <span style="color:green">'''|'''</span> [[Special:Contributions/Roy25|<span style="color:green">'''Contributions''' </span>]]</span></span> <span style="border:2px double purple;"><span style="background-color:pink"><span style="color:purple"> '''14:19, April 14, 2021 (UTC)''' </span></span></span> |
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Latest revision as of 21:53, 8 February 2022
| Monthly Archives:Pre-Season-June, July, August, September-November Storm Event Archives: |
|
Other Basin Talkpages (2020): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian |
Post-Season Changes
| Name | Operational Intensity and Duration | Reanalysis Intensity and Duration | TCR Release Date |
| One-E | 35 mph, 1006 mbars, April 25-26 | 35 mph, 1006 mbars, April 25-26 | June 30, 2020 |
| Amanda | 40 mph, 1003 mbars, May 30-31 | 40 mph, 1003 mbars, May 30-31 | September 10, 2020 |
| Boris | 40 mph, 1005 mbars, June 24-28 | 40 mph, 1005 mbars, June 24-27 | January 13, 2021 |
| Four-E | 35 mph, 1004 mbars, June 30 | 30 mph, 1006 mbars, June 29-30 | March 15, 2021 |
| Cristina | 70 mph, 993 mbars, July 6-13 | 70 mph, 993 mbars, July 6-12 | November 13, 2020 |
| Six-E | 35 mph, 1007 mbars, July 13-14 | 35 mph, 1007 mbars, July 13-14 | December 20, 2020 |
| Seven-E | 35 mph, 1007 mbars, July 20-21 | 40 mph, 1006 mbars, July 20-21 | December 8, 2020 |
| Douglas | 130 mph, 954 mbars, July 20-29 | 130 mph, 954 mbars, July 20-28 | November 21, 2020 |
| Elida | 100 mph, 975 mbars, August 9-13 | 105 mph, 971 mbars, August 8-12 | October 24, 2020 |
| Ten-E | 35 mph, 1004 mbars, August 13-16 | 35 mph, 1004 mbars, August 13-16 | January 4, 2021 |
| Fausto | 40 mph, 1004 mbars, August 16-17 | 40 mph, 1004 mbars, August 16-17 | February 10, 2021 |
| Genevieve | 130 mph, 950 mbars, August 16-21 | 130 mph, 950 mbars, August 16-21 | April 13, 2021 |
| Hernan | 45 mph, 1001 mbars, August 26-28 | 45 mph, 1001 mbars, August 26-28 | March 17, 2021 |
| Iselle | 60 mph, 997 mbars, August 26-30 | 60 mph, 997 mbars, August 26-30 | February 1, 2021 |
| Julio | 45 mph, 1003 mbars, September 5-7 | 45 mph, 1004 mbars, September 5-7 | January 20, 2021 |
| Karina | 60 mph, 996 mbars, September 13-17 | 60 mph, 996 mbars, September 12-16 | January 29, 2021 |
| Lowell | 50 mph, 999 mbars, Sep. 20-25 | 50 mph, 1001 mbars, Sep. 20-25 | December 2, 2020 |
| Marie | 130 mph, 947 mbars, Sept. 29-Oct.7 | 140 mph, 945 mbars, Sept. 29-Oct.6 | February 18, 2021 |
| Norbert | 50 mph, 1001 mbars, Oct. 5-10/13-15 | 60 mph, 1000 mbars, Oct. 5-9/13-14 | March 15, 2021 |
| Odalys | 50 mph, 1000 mbars, November 3-6 | 50 mph, 1000 mbars, November 3-5 | April 13, 2021 |
| Polo | 45 mph, 1004 mbars, November 17-19 | 45 mph, 1004 mbars, November 17-19 | March 17, 2021 |
About two weeks ago, the NHC completed their first TCR of the 2020 season, and it's for One-E. No changes were made to the intensity of the storm, but the advisory timing was changed; NHC operationally declared it at 1500 UTC on the 25th, but reanalysis suggests it was a depression at 0600 UTC that day. Ryan1000 04:10, July 13, 2020 (UTC)
- Over two and a half months later, the second TCR of the season has been completed (actually completed on September 10th, but only published today), this time for Amanda. Again, no changes to the intensity, but instead to the timing. Operationally declared as a TD at 2100 UTC on May 30th, but reanalysis suggests it became one at 1800 UTC on that same day. She also made landfall earlier, at 1000 URC on the 31st compared to 1200 UTC operationally, and peaked 3 hours earlier, 0600 UTC compared to 0900 UTC operationally. Nutfield001 (talk) 19:21, September 18, 2020 (UTC)
Elida's TCR is out, four days after it was completed. Adjustments have been made to her formation time, having actually formed at 1800 UTC on August 8th, in comparison to 0300 UTC on August 9th operationally, and most notably her intensity, with reanalysis suggesting she was a 105mph hurricane with a central pressure reading of 971mb, not 100mph and 975mb as was originally thought. Nutfield001 (talk) 02:01, October 28, 2020 (UTC)
Cristina's TCR is out, albeit completed a week ago. No intensity upgrade, sadly, plus it became a low on the 12th July, not the 13th. Nutfield001 (talk) 22:59, November 20, 2020 (UTC)
- Douglas's TCR was completed a few days ago but released today. No change in windspeed or pressure but lifespan was shortened. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 21:16, December 01, 2020 (UTC)
Lowell's TCR has been released having only been completed yesterday. No changes to the duration or its windspeed but its pressure is up by 2 mb. Nutfield001 (talk) 22:21, December 3, 2020 (UTC)
- Seven-E's TCR has een released and was upgraded to an unnamed tropical storm. So we have Tropical Storm Seven-E. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 15:01, December 11, 2020 (UTC)
Interesting...not every day a tropical depression gets buffed to a TS in reanalysis, the last time that happened in the EPac was, I believe, tropical storm one-e in 1996. Ryan1000 16:00, December 11, 2020 (UTC)
- TCRs for Six-E and Ten-E are out with no change for both depressions, although Six-E's was completed on December 20 while Ten-E's was completed on January 4. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 23:39, January 07, 2021 (UTC)
Julio's TCR is out (completed on Jan 20). Only change was the increase of pressure by 1 mbar. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 21:07, January 22, 2021 (UTC)
- Iselle's TCR is out. Not that much change in it. The TCR was completed yesterday. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 15:01, February 02, 2021 (UTC)
- Boris' TCR is posted on the web, although it was completed on Jan 13. Duration was shortened but overall, not that much change. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 15:00, February 03, 2021 (UTC)
Fausto and Karina's TCRs are out. Fausto's was completed today and not too much change. Karina's was completed on January 29 and its time frame was shifted. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 17:46, February 10, 2021 (UTC)
- Marie's TCR is out, which was completed yesterday. Changes includes an increase of maximum wind speed to 140 mph, a drop of minimum pressure to 945 mbars, and duration was shortened. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 15:43, February 19, 2021 (UTC)
- Polo's TCR is out and completed today. No significant change to duration and intensity. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 23:42, March 17, 2021 (UTC)
- Hernan's TCR is out, completed yesterday. Also not that much change to duration and intensity. Four-E's TCR is also out with with its duration extended to the 29th, maximum wind speed downgraded to 30 mph, and pressure up to 1006 mbars. Norbert's TCR is also out with changes to duration during both stages as TC. Max wind speed has been upped to 60 mph and pressure changed to 1000 mbars ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 20:35, March 18, 2021 (UTC)
- Polo's TCR is out and completed today. No significant change to duration and intensity. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 23:42, March 17, 2021 (UTC)
Guess that leaves just Genevieve and Odalys for the 2020 EPac TCR’s. I predicted genny would be last, and considering it was the only named storm (besides Amanda, whose TCR was finished a while back) to cause any impact on land this year, it probably will come out after Odalys. Ryan1000 21:49, 18 March 2021 (UTC)
- The final two TCRs of the 2020 EPAC season - Genevieve and Odalys - are out, both completed yesterday. No significant changes to Genevieve while Odalys was found to dissipated earlier. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 14:19, April 14, 2021 (UTC)