Forum:2020 Pacific hurricane season

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This is the forum page for the 2020 Pacific hurricane season.

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Monthly Archives:Pre-Season-June, /July/ Storm Event Archives:

Other Basin Talkpages (2020): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

Future start

Basin pages are up, and betting pools are too, for the Atlantic and EPac for now. Ryan1000 04:11, November 14, 2019 (UTC)

I am not sure what the EPAC will bring this year because of the neutral ENSO conditions. However, it would not surprise me if the ACE for 2020 exceeds that of last year. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:53, January 1, 2020 (UTC)

Hopefully the EPac will produce a better season than last year. 2019 had so many failures and weak, short-lived TS's that it was painful to witness. Maybe 2020 will spice things up a bit and produce several nice fishspinning majors, maybe even a harmless C5. ~ Steve 🎉 Happy2020!🎆 01:30, January 2, 2020 (UTC)

I think this season will be more pathetic than last year :((( .ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:17, April 6, 2020 (UTC)

The warm-neutral phase from October 2019-February 2020 has officially re-classified as an El Niño event according to NOAA ENSO report.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 07:43, May 6, 2020 (UTC)

It is now May 15 in UTC time. Happy EPAC (proper) hurricane season! Hopefully, we will see another interesting season! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:05, May 15, 2020 (UTC)

Seasonal forecasts

Agency	Date of release	Named storms forecast	Hurricanes forecast	Major hurricanes forecast	Accumulated cyclone energy forecast
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico) (in Spanish)	May 20, 2020	15-18	8-10	4-5	N/A
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)	May 21, 2020	11-18	5-10	1-5	60% to 135% of Pacific median (60-136)

After a conversation I had with Steve, I am introducing a new section to all basins in which seasonal forecasts are issued. I believe that seasonal forecasts are a crucial resource to gain a better appreciation of how active a tropical cyclone season may be. In addition, Hurricanes Wiki has never had a separate section for these predictors (until now), and it can be frustrating to create new sections every single time a new forecast is released. I hope the seasonal forecasts section can be used not just in 2020, but in the years to come.

In short, whenever an agency issues a new forecast, simply add it to the bottom row of the above table. Be sure to include the link to the forecast, as well as any major information (e.g. date of release, named storms predicted). If a forecast is written in a language besides English, please indicate this next to the agency name. Please let me know on my wall if you have any further questions. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:33, May 26, 2020 (UTC)

August

Is here, but nothing is expected to form in the next five days in the EPac. Even the WPac is still slow...man, the Atlantic is really hogging all the activity in the NHem so far this year. Ryan1000 05:51, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

A tumbleweed rolls across the EPac and CPac. Beatissima (talk) 00:37, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

09E.ELIDA

AOI: South of Central America

...Which ends now, another AOI has appeared, and is currently at 0/20 on the TWO. Might become Elida. Ryan1000 05:22, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

Now 0/30. Yeah, this will probably become Elida by next week. This slow season is only going to get the E name, while the Atlantic is WAY ahead with the J name up next over there. Very unusual for the Atlantic to be so ahead at this time of year, as the EPac is usually more active in July and the Atlantic quieter in that month. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:22, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 0/60 now, confidence is increasing. Nickcoro (talk) 19:58, August 5, 2020 (UTC)

10/70. The "X" is currently located near Costa Rica, but this system will move northwestward and will likely be "Elida" by the time it's south of Mexico. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 05:49, August 6, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 20/80. Beatissima (talk) 15:25, August 7, 2020 (UTC)

91E.INVEST

Now an invest.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 05:52, August 8, 2020 (UTC) Up to 70/90.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:28, August 8, 2020 (UTC)

This will probably become Elida soon, and is expected to move southwest after moving WNW for some time. The peak intensity expected is uncertain, but this could become a hurricane down the road based on the initial model forecasts we have. Ryan1000 14:36, August 8, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine-E

Upgrade to TD.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 02:40, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Forecast to become a hurricane, and as I mentioned earlier, turn south later in the forecast period. If this keeps that up in the long run, then this may be a minor threat to Hawaii down the road like Darby 4 years ago, assuming Elida-to-be can hold on to TS status that late in the model runs. Ryan1000 05:36, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Looks like Elida's about to arrive. Currently 35 mph/1007 mbar, with the forecast peak at 85 mph. However, I think this has real potential to turn into a C2, maybe even a major in the strongest scenario. I doubt it will still be a TC when it's near Hawaii though - NHC has it weaken drastically after crossing 120W, though if it encounters another round of favorable conditions in the very long run, maybe it's still slightly possible. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:31, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Elida

Elida is finally here.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:19, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Already up to 65 mph/998 mbar. It is quickly intensifying... A major looking more and more likely now. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:25, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: Near the CPac

First of 2 new AOIs on the 5 day. Currently 0/20. Maybe it'll become Hone? ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:31, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 0/50. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:25, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: Off the SW coast of Mexico

The second of two new 5 day AOIs. Currently 0/30, and the yellow crayon is currently scribbled over where TD Nine-E (future Elida) is now. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:31, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Up to 0/50. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:25, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions

• Amanda - 35% - Based on the damage totals from Amanda in El Salvador, she is currently the third-costliest tropical cyclone on record in the country's history, after Hurricanes Paul and Mitch, and given Central America's lower retirement standards than the U.S. or Mexico, having retired Alma, the name Amanda replaced, only 12 years ago, there's a chance we might not be seeing Amanda again in 2026, though it's not a certainty.
• Boris - 0% - Our yearly epic fail. Better luck in 2026.
• Cristina - 0% - She was soooo close to being a hurricane, but she fell short...reanalysis could upgrade her, but all things said, it was still a fishspinner.
• Douglas - 5% - Thankfully, Douglas narrowly missed the Hawaiian islands to the north, and so damage wasn't as bad as it could've been; also no deaths were reported either. Had Douglas passed only slightly further south, this could've been a lot worse for Hawaii.

That's all for now. Ryan1000 16:08, June 4, 2020 (UTC)

Beatissima's Retirement Predictions

• TD One-E/"TD April" - N/A
• TS Amanda - 50%
• TS Boris - 0%
• TD Four-E - N/A
• TS Cristina - 0%
• TD Six-E - N/A
• TD Seven-E - N/A
• C4 Douglas - TBD
• TS Elida - active

Beatissima (talk) 20:09, June 15, 2020 (UTC)

Bluecaner's Retirement Predictions

(Grades - Z F D C B A S SS)

Storm - Nickname - Retirement odds (description) - Bluecaner want (description) - Grade (description)

• One-E - April-E - N/A - You cant retire numbers! (no want) - A If this were stronger and named it would be S, but it sits at A (April). This would be skipped normally but it broke a record. April-E was awesome!

• Amanda - Cristobal? - 30% - Did a number on El Salvador, and Alma was retired, but Agatha wasn't, and Paul, which had a major affect on El Salvador, also wasn't retired. I expect to see this in 2026. - Yes I want this retired, but I don't entirely expect this to happen. - F Weak Fail that did damage, but it did lead to Cristobal, so it got lucky.

• Boris - Bore-is - 0% No impacts really No No impacts why - Z EPac really failing this year.

• Four-E - Failure! - N/A - You cant retire numbers! (no want) - Z I hate this.

• Cristina - Hurricane Cristina - 0% No impact No No impacts - D Grade will be updated if it becomes a hurricane, but, I-

- Bluecaner (talk)

Chosen Wizard's 2020 Storm Name Retirement Chances - Pacific Hurricane:

The ePAC finally gets a hurricane...

I'm coloring the storm names now based on their strength, so: TS, C1 & C2, C3 & C4, C5 (up to 199 mph), 200+ mph C5, Subtropical Storm.

• Tropical Storm Amanda - Really bad rain, really bad flooding. Also led to Cristobal. (25%)
• Tropical Storm Boris THREE - Why? (0%)
• Tropical Storm Cristina - Too lazy to become a hurricane. (0%)
• Hurricane Douglas - REACHED CAT 4 INTENSITY and ended the boring fest. Impacted Hawaii, and thankfully not bringing hurricane force winds to the island. Retirement chances still in the double digits nonetheless. (10%)

Chosen Wizard (⛅ NERD) (Inputs) 14:37, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Steve's Retirement Predictions

Once I find the time and motivation I might expand this with tabs, future outlook, etc.

Intensity colors (SSHWS, 1-min winds): TD/SD (≤35 mph, ≤30 knots), Weak TS/SS (40-50 mph, 35-45 knots), Strong TS/SS (ALWAYS USED REGARDLESS OF BASIN) (60-70 mph, 50-60 knots), C1 (75-90 mph, 65-80 knots), C2 (100-110 mph, 85-95 knots), C3 (115-125 mph, 100-110 knots), C4 (130-155 mph, 115-135 knots), C5 (160-180 mph, 140-155 knots), BEAST MODE (185+ mph, 160+ knots)

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A; 0.000...1-0.4%, 0.5-0.9%, 1-4%, 5%-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-24%, 25-29%, 30-34%, 35-39%, 40-44%, 45-49%, 50%, 51-54%, 55-59%, 60-64%, 65-69%, 70-74%, 75-79%, 80-84%, 85-89%, 90-94%, 95-98%, 99-99.999...%; 100%; TBA (active storms only)

Grading colors: SSS, SS, S, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, F-, Z, 🤦🏻‍♂️, TBA (active storms only)

---

PTCs are not included. TDs are included for grading purposes only.

• One-E:
  • Retirement prediction: N/A
  • Grading: D+ - Good job forming in April, breaking the record by 2 weeks! Though because you were only a depression I can't give you any higher than a D :(

• Amanda:
  • Retirement prediction: 40% - Significant impacts in Central America, could pull an Alma. However, it seems a bit more likely than not for it to stay.
  • Grading: Z - Extremely weak and short-lived... not a fan.

• Boris:
  • Retirement prediction: 0% - Why would this fishspinner be retired?
  • Grading: F- - Did a little better than Amanda longevity-wise, but still only peaked at 40 mph and was a pathetic steal of a name. Became only the second June TC in the CPac on record BTW.

• Four-E:
  • Retirement prediction: N/A
  • Grading: 🤦🏻‍♂️ - If you blinked you missed it!

• Cristina:
  • Retirement prediction: 0% - No one was affected at all, except for maybe surfers along the Mexican coastline.
  • Grading: E - Pretty much a failure due to the repeated predictions expecting it to become a hurricane. But I'm too generous for now to give it a straight up "F"; it looked very nice for a time on satellite and might have even been a brief hurricane for a time. If post-analysis upgrades it, the grade will be changed to a "C".

• Six-E:
  • Retirement prediction: N/A
  • Grading: Z - At least it lasted a bit longer than Four-E...

• Seven-E:
  • Retirement prediction: N/A
  • Grading: Z - Yet another unnamed TD that will be forgotten.

• Douglas:
  • Retirement prediction: 5% - Threatened Hawaii for a while, but they ended up getting little impacts at all as it passed just to the north. Once the damage totals are released, the percentage might become even lower.
  • Grading: A - Good job becoming the first major and C4 of the season, and for dodging a landfall in Hawaii!

~ Steve 🎆 HappyIndependence Day!🇺🇸 05:23, July 4, 2020 (UTC) (last updated 20:21, July 31, 2020 (UTC))

Nickcoro's Retirement Predictions

Grading: Z, F, D, C, B, A, S.

• One-E - A - Earliest storm in Eastern Pacific. That alone gives it an A. If it was a TS it would certainly be a S. As it is, an incredible storm nonetheless (N/A%)
• Amanda - F - Extremely weak storm. It later led to the formation of Cristobal, but on its way caused significant heavy rain impacts in Central America. Those impacts may get it retired, but its rather unlikely. (30%)
• Boris - F - Also very weak. Did last some time, and was only the second storm to enter the Central Pacific in June. Still a pathetic storm though. (0%)
• Four-E - Z - Lasted 3 advisories before dying. Absoulutly pointless storm. (N/A%)
• Cristina - D - Had the potential to get much stronger than it did, potentially to major hurricane strengh. It instead stayed a tropical storm. In reanalysis this could be upgraded to C1, and that would probably give it a C, but even then, this storm had so much wasted potential. (0%)
• Six-E - Z - Why, just why. (N/A%)
• Seven-E - Z - Are you serious East Pacific? (N/A%)
• Douglas - A - The East Pacific finally decided to create a strong storm. A well formed C4 that ended up being a smaller impact to Hawaii then expected. This makes it a fantastic storm. It was quite long lasting as well. (10%)

Nickcoro (talk) 22:39, July 14, 2020 (UTC)

Harveycane's retirement predictions and grades

I'll organize it later. Right now I just want to get the important thoughts out.

• One-E - B - 0% - Cool pre-season storm, especially the fact that it is the earliest forming storm in the eastern pacific proper, hence the high grade for a tropical depression. If it were a tropical storm or even stronger, I would've upped the grade. I feel a bit generous but whatever.
• Amanda - F - 25% - Just a weak failure in general, in addition to impacts that were only worsened with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic - 33 deaths, around $200 million in damages. I can't rule out retirement, but she's setting herself at high stakes right here.
• Boris - F - 0% - At least he lasted a few days or so, but it was just another weak failure and a name stealer. All in all very forgetful.
• Four-E - Z - 0% - I forgot about this storm. Does anyone remember what it was? No but seriously, this thing didn't even last half a whole day.
• Cristina - E - 0% - We actually thought she would be a high end category 2 hurricane, but it couldn't even become a hurricane! I do think Christina was a category 1 for a very short time, and I will up the grade if it does get upped in post analysis, but right now it sits right here at the E grade.
• Six-E - F - 0% - Just like Four-E, short lived and forgetful.
• Douglas - A - 2% - Expected to become a C1 at most when I first saw its forecast, but instead, it unexpectedly intensified to a category 4 hurricane! Unfortunately for us, we did get threatened, but the good news is that it just barely hit us and headed north away from Hawaii. Well done, Douglas!
• Elida - ? - ? - Currently active. Expected to peak as a 100 mph .C2

Harveycane (Talk | Contributions) 23:50, July 18, 2020 (UTC)

Replacement Names

Female "A" names (Potentially for Amanda)

Considering the considerable damage wrought in El Salvador from Tropical Storm Amanda, there is a decent chance Amanda might be retired after this year, so what do you guys think will replace her, assuming she is retired? Here are some suggestions:

• Amy
• Anastasia
• Annabelle
• Ariana
• Amelia
• Alyssa
• Alexandria
• Alice
• Ava
• Alexa
• Alexis
• Alaina
• Ayla
• Amaya
• Abigail
• Athena
• Audrey
• Agnes
• Alicia
• Allison

My favorite name among these is Ariana, but Amy, Alexis, Alice, Alyssa, and others are good too. Names like Audrey, Agnes, Alicia, and Allison would be my last choices since they were already retired in the Atlantic, though we do have some formerly retired Atlantic names in the EPac, like Celia, Dora, and Hilda, so it's not impossible those names could be picked. Ryan1000 16:08, June 4, 2020 (UTC)

I would like to see Ava return to the EPac name list to be honest. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 23:55, June 4, 2020 (UTC)

Ariana is also my preferred pick from the list above (assuming Ariana Grande does not mind her name being on the list). I still think of the Category 5 hurricane from 1973 when I hear the name Ava. Also, here are some more options to replace Amanda:

• Amber
• Amada
• Aiyana
• Abby (used in the Atlantic and WPAC)
• Abigail
• Annette (was on the old EPAC naming list)
• Aubrey
• Adeline
• Alessia
• Angelique
• Angelica

AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 19:48, June 5, 2020 (UTC)

I already mentioned Abigail, but I forgot about Amber and Angelica, those would be nice picks as well. Ryan1000 21:37, June 5, 2020 (UTC)

What about Annie ? That name fits the list theme. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:30, June 5, 2020 (UTC)

Annie might be close to Ana, but so is Annabelle, and given the WMO's track record of putting similar names on the Atlantic and EPac lists (i.e. Frank and Franklin, Marty and Martin, Danny and Daniel), it's a possibility. Ryan1000 01:33, June 6, 2020 (UTC)

Ryan, I'm unsure if El Salvador will really retire Amanda. It was Costa Rica which retired Alma, and much of Amanda's damage occured in Guatemala (remember Agatha 2010?) and Mexico (which is infamous for its track record. Further, Paul of 1982, which killed over a thousand people in El Salvador, somehow survived the boot. Even Selma from 2017 didn't get the boot. As a result, I think Amanda might stay.  JavaHurricane 05:00, June 6, 2020 (UTC)

Um Java, the article says that the 200 million USD in damage from Amanda is from El Salvador, not from Guatemala. Obviously Guatemala's track record isn't the best, having snubbed storms like Aletta of 1982 and Agatha of 2010, but El Salvador might be a different story, as destructive storms are less common there...also, Paul wasn't a named storm when it struck Central America, but was a depression, which likely explains his snub. Selma did kill 17, but they were in Honduras and Nicaragua, and damage in El Salvador from Selma was minimal. I know it's a bit of a long shot, but the damage in El Salvador from Amanda isn't negligible, and it might be retired, though it's not a certainty. Hence why I put the header to "potentially for Amanda". Ryan1000 06:49, June 6, 2020 (UTC)

If Amanda is retired, my favorite names to replace it with include Ariana (Grande gets her own hurricane name lol), Amy, Annabelle, Amelia, Alice, Amber, Angelica, and Abigail. The NHC might hesitate to consider Ava due to the C5 hurricane bearing that name in 1973. I don't think it's as likely an Atlantic retired name will be picked, but if they do pick one, I'd like to see Alicia be chosen since it is my older sister's name. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 01:20, June 7, 2020 (UTC)

If Amanda is retired, I REALLY want it to be replaced by Anastasia or Annastasia (however you want to spell it). Although it might be somewhat similar to Ana, I wouldn't really care. ~ Bluecaner (talk) (18:07 UTC, June 24th)

Post-Season Changes

Name	Operational Intensity and Duration	Reanalysis Intensity and Duration	TCR Release Date
One-E	35 mph, 1006 mbars, April 25-26	35 mph, 1006 mbars, April 25-26	June 30, 2020
Amanda	40 mph, 1003 mbars, May 30-31	N/A	N/A
Boris	40 mph, 1005 mbars, June 24-28	N/A	N/A
Four-E	35 mph, 1004 mbars, June 30	N/A	N/A
Cristina	70 mph, 993 mbars, July 6-13	N/A	N/A
Six-E	35 mph, 1007 mbars, July 13-14	N/A	N/A
Seven-E	35 mph, 1007 mbars, July 20-21	N/A	N/A
Douglas	130 mph, 954 mbars, July 20-29	N/A	N/A

About two weeks ago, the NHC completed their first TCR of the 2020 season, and it's for One-E. No changes were made to the intensity of the storm, but the advisory timing was changed; NHC operationally declared it at 1500 UTC on the 25th, but reanalysis suggests it was a depression at 0600 UTC that day. Ryan1000 04:10, July 13, 2020 (UTC)