Forum:2020 Pacific typhoon season

Active Tropical Cyclones: None.

This is the forum page for the 2020 Pacific typhoon season.

Please sign your comments using four tildes (~~~~). Place comments that start a new topic at the bottom of the page and give them a descriptive header. Please keep off-topic and political discussion to a minimum, and respect the guidelines listed to the right. Keep betting pools off this page - there are separate forum pages for those. Refer to the navigation tabs at the top of the page for a listing of all the seasonal forums, betting pools, or the Hurricane Hall of Fame.

Forum guidelines Please respect etiquette and assume good faith. Also, be nice and remain civil. Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:/January-June/ Storm Event Archives:

Other Basin Talkpages (2020): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

Future start

Now that 2020 is underway, I would be curious to see what everyone thinks about the upcoming typhoon season. The last two years have been especially costly for the countries around the WPAC, and there will likely be long roads to recovery ahead. Because of the current ENSO conditions, I do not know if this season will be as active as 2019 was. However, I personally believe at least 24 tropical storms and 10 typhoons will occur. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:03, January 2, 2020 (UTC)

Another notable season looks likely, but hopefully we see a break from the constant barrage of devastation that the last two years put the region through. They need a break especially after Lekima, Hagibis, and other notable storms. I believe a near-average but another costly (hopefully not) typhoon season might occur this year. ~ Steve 🎉 Happy2020!🎆 01:34, January 2, 2020 (UTC)

Familiar names are coming up on the naming list. 2014 and 2015 really produced some memorable typhoons. Hopefully we can get more exciting storms but nothing destructive. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:34, January 11, 2020 (UTC)

High wind shear still dominate this basin so the first storm could arrive in May or June !ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 12:19, April 6, 2020 (UTC)

Weird coincident: This season, PAGASA will use the same naming list that was use in 2016.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 06:48, April 25, 2020 (UTC)

This is normal; PAGASA lists rotate every 4 years. Last year used the same list (except for retirements) used in 2015, 2018 used the 2014 list, etc. I think the actual coincidence is that the list was last used in another season that began late (2016 of course). ~ Steve 🙏🏻 Praying for the worldto recover from coronavirus.📧 17:18, April 25, 2020 (UTC)

TSR forecast: 26 named storms, 15 typhoons and 8 intense typhoons with ACE of 258 (which is a meh).ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:28, May 23, 2020 (UTC)

Those numbers are actually near long-term averages. Also, as with the Atlantic, all future forecasts should go in the section below. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:55, May 26, 2020 (UTC)

Seasonal forecasts

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) forecasts

Date of release	Tropical storms forecast	Typhoons forecast	Intense typhoons forecast	Accumulated cyclone energy forecast
May 21, 2020	26	15	8	258
July 9, 2020	26	14	7	216
August 6, 2020	21	13	5	157

Other forecasts

Agency	Date of release	Time period of forecast	Tropical cyclones forecast
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) (page 30)	April 29, 2020	May 2020	1-2
PAGASA (page 30)	April 29, 2020	June 2020	1-2
PAGASA (page 30)	April 29, 2020	July 2020	2-4
PAGASA (page 30)	April 29, 2020	August 2020	2-3
PAGASA (page 30)	April 29, 2020	September 2020	2-3
PAGASA (page 30)	April 29, 2020	October 2020	2-3

After a conversation I had with Steve, I am introducing a new section to all basins in which seasonal forecasts are issued. I believe that seasonal forecasts are a crucial resource to gain a better appreciation of how active a tropical cyclone season may be. In addition, Hurricanes Wiki has never had a separate section for these predictors (until now), and it can be frustrating to create new sections every single time a new forecast is released. I hope the seasonal forecasts section can be used not just in 2020, but in the years to come.

In short, whenever an agency issues a new forecast, simply add it to the bottom row of the appropriate table. If TSR releases a forecast, include it in the top table. If any other agency does so, include it in the bottom table. Be sure to include the link to the forecast, as well as any major information (e.g. date of release, named storms predicted). Moreover, if a forecast is written in a language besides English, please indicate this next to the agency name. Please let me know on my wall if you have any further questions. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:55, May 26, 2020 (UTC)

July

Although La Niña conditions are not here yet, it certainly feels that way. With only two total cyclones so far, this has been the slowest season in four years. Perhaps things will become more active in July? AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:00, July 4, 2020 (UTC)

Breaking news: Yutu has been eliminated from the naming list. ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 02:31, July 22, 2020 (UTC)

99W.NONAME (CARINA)

99W.INVEST

Not too likely Andrew, but this isn't entirely unheard of either; after all, the WPac peaks later than the Atlantic or East Pacific, with their most active months being October and November. Plus, we still have August and September to come. Anyways, this invest is currently just east of the Philippines, but isn't expected to become much. Ryan1000 13:44, July 11, 2020 (UTC)

What a miserable seasonʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:45, July 11, 2020 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (99W)

JMA actually already has it up as a TD with a pressure of 1008 mbar. Damn, the WPac has been inactive for so long, it feels almost like a re-2010. Hopefully we finally get Sinlaku out of this. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 18:18, July 11, 2020 (UTC)

Ths is one of the least active seasons that we've seen so far, in fact it had the 6th latest start to a season since records began and the latest since 2016. But again, we still have a lot of the season left and a lot could change between now and October and November. Ryan1000 18:53, July 11, 2020 (UTC)

Yeah, this season has simply been pathetic. The WPac would have to really explode in activity to avoid a below-average season overall by years' end. Anyway, this is now low chance (code yellow) on JTWC. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 04:12, July 12, 2020 (UTC)

Intensified a bit to 1004 mbar according to the JMA, still code yellow on JTWC. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 20:57, July 12, 2020 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Carina/99W)

Now considered by PAGASA as a TD. Code orange on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:36, July 13, 2020 (UTC)

Moving over the Luzon Strait now and expected to pass by, possibly even make landfall in the Batanes. No change in intensity though, looks like Sinlaku might have to wait. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 20:54, July 13, 2020 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA TD (Carina)

It's dead, no longer on JMA or JTWC. The invest is still on NRL though. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 16:33, July 15, 2020 (UTC)

Gone from Tidbits for good. Ryan1000 14:47, July 16, 2020 (UTC)

90W.NONAME

JMA Tropical Depression (90W.INVEST)

A system has finally appeared in this unusually dead basin. It's located way out to sea though. Currently 1010 mbar according to the JMA. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 05:55, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

So inactive.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:32, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

This system is a subtropical system per JTWC.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:49, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

Geez...did the Atlantic and West Pacific switch bodies this year or something? The WPac is on track to have it's first tropical storm-less July on record if this doesn't develop, which would beat 1998's previous record of just 1 TS in the month, while the Atlantic could get it's first ever season to have 9 named storms before August. Even 2010, the least active WPac season, didn't have that kind of contrast at this time of year. Ryan1000 17:35, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

Actually I think 1886 had no tropical storms form in July, but that was before the advent of satellite imagery. This really is a stark, unusual contrast - just another thing to add to how historical and strange 2020 really is. Anyway, I doubt this will become any better than it is now. 91W might be one to watch for potential Sinlaku though, since models on Tidbits seem to develop it. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 23:06, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

Yeah I was only referring to the satellite era since 1966 or so, because before then a lot of storms were missed (especially in the East Pacific and southern Indian Ocean near the Australian Region/SWIO border, where most storms don't affect land). 91W has two days to get Sinlaku or this will be the first tropical storm-less July for the WPac on record. Either way, 2020 would at least tie 1998 for the least active July ever if 91W gets Sinlaku. Ryan1000 05:47, July 29, 2020 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA TD (90W.INVEST)

It's now only a low on JMA and no longer on JTWC, so it's dying. I think NRL and Tidbits will follow suit tomorrow. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:01, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

Dead for good. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 20:01, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

04W.SINLAKU

91W.INVEST

New invest per Tidbits.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:32, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

Side note: I think this is the "calm" period of "the calm before the storm".ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:38, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

Maybe. But even if the WPac picks up a bit from here on out, it's still going to rival 2010 as the least active season in history. A miracle explosion from August to the end of the year would have to happen to avoid a seriously below average season. Anyway, models on Tidbits seem to hint at Sinlaku potentially coming from this, and hopefully it does develop despite the land threat because the WPac needs something to form for once (I don't care if it would be a weak name stealer, but please nothing devastating). ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 23:06, July 28, 2020 (UTC)

Code yellow on JTWC. Still a low pressure area per JMA and PAGASA. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:18, July 29, 2020 (UTC)

Medium chance/code orange now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:13, July 30, 2020 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 91W)

Still code orange but upgraded to a TD by JMA. Moving towards Hainan as of the moment. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:17, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Now a "high warning"(?) TD on JMA as it now appears on its main typhoon page. More likely to become Sinlaku as compared to 92W. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:55, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

This is now 35 mph (30 knots)/998 mbar per the JMA and code red (TCFA issued) per the JTWC. I expect it to either stay a TD or become a weak name-stealing Sinlaku as it moves into Hainan and brings impacts throughout southeast China and parts of Indochina. Also, because it's already August 1 in the time zone where this is located at, that means July has gone fully without a tropical storm for the first time in the satellite era. But if going by UTC, this still has a few hours left, highly unlikely to make it. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 20:00, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Unfortunately, it failed to become Sinlaku before August began. JMA doesn't expect either this or 92W to become much. Ryan1000 05:56, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sinlaku

Now a TS according to JMA. This system wind field is so broad.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 07:42, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Sinlaku

This system made landfall over Vietnam. Now a TD.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:39, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

Now 994 mbar according to JMA and JTWC has issued their final warning. The system's influence is just...so huge. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 19:03, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

Remnants of Sinlaku

This thing is pretty much dead. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 19:05, August 3, 2020 (UTC)

03W.HAGUPIT (DINDO)

92W.INVEST

New Invest. Code Yellow on JTWCʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 04:04, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

This or 91W have until the end of today to get Sinlaku in order for 2020 to avoid having the first stormless July for the WPac in the satellite era. I'm not sold on it though, since the satellite imagery for the basin looks rather messy for these two invests. Ryan1000 05:16, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 92W)

Upgraded to a TD by JMA, code orange on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:17, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Dindo/92W)

Upgraded by PAGASA to a TD. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:49, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Currently 1008 mbar per JMA and 45 km/h (30 mph) per PAGASA. Expected to hit near or south of Shanghai, China still as a TD in a couple days. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 20:00, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

TCFA issued as JTWC has raised this to code red too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 23:09, July 31, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03W (Dindo)

Now a TD per the JTWC. Currently 30 knots (35 mph) (JTWC and JMA) and 1006 mbar per the JMA. JTWC actually forecasts a modest tropical storm, so maybe this will be Sinlaku. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:35, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Dindo)

HAGUPIT.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:44, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

And just like that the WPac has two storms at the beginning of the new month, after literally giving us nothing last July. Still a TD on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:24, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Hagupit (Dindo)

This is actually a STS now according to the JMA. 65 mph (55 knots)/990 mbar, and JTWC's got it at 50 mph (45 knots). This could even become a very brief typhoon before landfall in China, likely near Wenzhou. It's also going to strike near Ishigaki Island and pass close enough to northern Taiwan that they should feel some impacts. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 19:03, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

Typhoon Hagupit (Dindo)

Now a typhoon according to JTWC and JMA. Inching closer to Taiwan as of this writing. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:54, August 3, 2020 (UTC)

It has made its closest approach to Taiwan now. Currently 70 knots (80 mph)/975 mbar per the JMA and 75 knots (85 mph) per the JTWC. When this system first formed, I didn't really expect a typhoon, but here we are. Starting to move onshore in China as of now, and expected to make landfall near Wenzhou. Hopefully it won't be too bad over there. Later in the forecast, it's expected to emerge over the Yellow Sea as a depression or remnant low, with its remnants affecting Korea. Side note: this thing had such a huge, well-defined eye on satellite earlier. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 19:05, August 3, 2020 (UTC)

Landfall near Wenzhou, China

I'm pretty sure it has made landfall now, and is down to 65 knots (75 mph)/980 mbar per the JMA and 70 knots (80 mph) per the JTWC. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 00:15, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Hagupit (Dindo) (2nd time)

Back down to a STS over land, 60 knots (70 mph)/ 985 mbar per the JMA. JTWC has it even weaker, at 45 knots (50 mph). ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:35, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Dindo) (2nd time)

Now only a TS, and should degenerate into a low soon enough. However, it will emerge into the Yellow Sea quite soon, which might slow or halt its weakening trend and bring a significant storm to Korea (will probably be non-tropical or a remnant low by then though). According to the JMA, it's currently 40 knots (45 mph)/998 mbar with JTWC having it only as a TD, and a final warning issued. Let's hope it wasn't too bad for Wenzhou and surrounding regions of eastern China. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 18:25, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Remnants of Hagupit (Dindo)

The JMA took a while to downgrade it, but it's now a remnant low over the Korean peninsula. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 05:51, August 6, 2020 (UTC)

August

Begins in the WPac too, but nothing is expected to form immediately besides the TD crossovers from July. Ryan1000 05:56, August 1, 2020 (UTC)

93W.INVEST

There's actually another invest on NRL, located to the southeast of the Philippines. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 19:03, August 2, 2020 (UTC)

And all of a sudden this is now code orange on JTWC. Maybe the WPac finally woke up and is now trying to catch-up with the Atlantic? Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:38, August 3, 2020 (UTC)

The WPac woke up for sure! After the most silent July on record, we're suddenly getting multiple storms/invests. It'll have to try hard to catch up with the Atlantic though, especially if the latter rivals 2005 in total number of storms. I think it's more likely a repeat of 2010 and 2005 will occur in that the Atlantic beats the WPac in named storms. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 19:08, August 3, 2020 (UTC)

I've been paying attention to Isaias for the most part, but wow, the WPac reakky kicked up in the last few days, after seeing nothing for July. The GFS ensembles expected this to move northwest through the Philippines and hit China as a typhoon earlier today, but have backed down on 93W since then. Ryan1000 03:34, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Now gone from JTWC's outlook. Still on Tidbits though. And just like that the WPac slept again. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 06:28, August 4, 2020 (UTC)

Gone from Tidbits and NRL. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 05:51, August 6, 2020 (UTC)

05W.JANGMI (ENTENG)

JMA Tropical Depression (94W.INVEST)

JMA is monitoring another depression to the east of the Philippines and it is expected to move north and strike South Korea as a tropical storm down the road. Looks like this could become Jangmi. Ryan1000 11:56, August 7, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Enteng (94W/JMA TD)

Code red on JTWC now. TCFA issued.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 23:40, August 7, 2020 (UTC)

Transferred Bill's comment to this new section as 94W was upgraded by PAGASA to a TD a few hours prior. JMA expects this system to become Jangmi in the coming hours/days. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 00:41, August 8, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 05W (Enteng)

Upgrade by JTWC.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:10, August 8, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jangmi (Enteng)

Upgrade to TS.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:46, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

I didn't really expect another TC so soon. There was literally nothing just a couple days ago (just after Hagupit died). Anyways, it's been impacting the Ryukyu islands and expected to impact South Korea as a slightly stronger TS. The JTWC still has it as a TD, though I expect an upgrade from them soon. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:40, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Been a TS by JTWC for a while now. Currently 45 knots (50 mph)/996 mbar per the JMA (probably its peak intensity) and now affecting South Korea. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:39, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

Remnants of Jangmi (Enteng)

This is pretty much dead. Rainfall exceeding 2 inches was reported in the Ryukyu Islands and South Korea, exacerbating flooding in the latter. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:23, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

07W.MEKKHALA (FERDIE)

95W.INVEST

New invest.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 07:47, August 8, 2020 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (95W)

Already code orange on JTWC, and a 1004 mbar TD from JMA as well. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:40, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Code red. TCFA Issuedʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:25, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07W

Finally 3 Tropical systems active at the same time.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:26, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07W (Ferdie)

Now named Ferdie by PAGASA. The race for Mekkhala is on, the WPac is playing catch-up with the Atlantic. Still not a high-warning TD on JMA though, just like 6W. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:13, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Now a high warning TD as it now appears on the main Tropical Cyclone Information page of JMA. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:35, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Mekkhala (Ferdie)

07W got the name “Mekkhala”.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 05:47, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

Woah, the WPac has been put on steroids after the insanely silent July. Currently 35 knots (40 mph)/998 mbar per the JMA. This is just going to be a non-notable name stealer though, as it likely won't surpass its current windspeed and will bring only slight effects to parts of the Philippines, Taiwan, and China. I doubt impacts will be too serious. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:39, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Mekkhala (Ferdie)

Upgrade to STS. Landfall at China soon.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 22:26, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

Oddly, JTWC upgraded Mekkhala to a typhoon but also issued its final warning for it. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 01:39, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

That's odd... BTW, Now TSR forecasts that this WPAC season will be very quiet.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 01:57, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Mekkhala (Ferdie) (2nd time)

It seriously became a STS and even a typhoon by JTWC?! The storm must have read my previous post that wrote it off as a non-notable name stealer, and got mad. Anyways, back down to a 40 mph (35 knots)/1002 mbar TS over land. Hopefully it won't be too serious of a storm... ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:23, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Mekkhala (Ferdie)

Landfall at China and JMA issued the last advisory of this system.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 13:26, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

06W.NONAME

JMA Tropical Depression far southeast of Japan

Another TD is actually on JMA's map, at only 1014 mbar, but no other agency is monitoring it. Not even invested (yet). ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:40, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

96W.INVEST

Now an Invest and on Code Red on JTWC. TCFA issued.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 11:25, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 06W

JTWC thinks this is a TS. JMA thinks this is a TD.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 14:24, August 9, 2020 (UTC)

JTWC has this as a whopping 40 knots (45 mph) despite the JMA's insistence to keep this as a TD. According to them, it's still 30 knots (35 mph) with a laughable 1012 mbar pressure. I hope it doesn't steal a name. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:39, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

Now a high warning TD as it now appears on JMA's main weather map. It also expects this system to become Higos. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:50, August 10, 2020 (UTC)

Not too sure if it will become Higos, hopefully it doesn't. Would be the worst name stealer. The JMA still forecasts 35 knots (40 mph) for 3 UTC on August 12 though. ~ Steve Message MeMy Edits📧 06:23, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

JTWC's forecast from a few hours ago expected this to reach 30 knots but finally JMA gave up on this. Seems like they have issued their final warning. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:09, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

Wait I think they haven't (yet). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:49, August 11, 2020 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance

Chosen Wizard's 2020 Storm Name Retirement Chances - Pacific Typhoon:

2020 off to a slow start... I'm coloring the storm names now based on their strength, so: TS, Severe TS, TY

• Typhoon Vongfong - The names' staying, sorry. (1.1% for the 5 deaths)
• Tropical Storm Nuri - Weak storm. Staying. (1% for the 1 death)

PAGASA Names:

• Ambo - Caused over 1 billion ₱ in damage, so it'll be retired. (100%) Nevermind, it's already been retired. Good riddance, Ambo.
• Butchoy - Staying. (0%)

Chosen Wizard (Weather nerd) (Contributions) My 2020 Name Retirement Chances out now! 02:59, June 27, 2020 (UTC)

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions

Although we're off to a slow start here in the WPac, I'm bored, so I'll make a list here for the fun of it:

• Vongfong - 37% - Although Ambo, the PAGASA name for Vongfong, got retired, I'm not sure if Vongfong himself will go, but it's a possibility, considering the Philippines lower retirement standards than other countries, and the damage on Samar was considerable.

• Nuri - 5% - Doesn't seem like it was too bad for southern China or the Philippines.
• Sinlaku - 1% - Caused some damage and deaths, but nothing too serious for China.
• Hagupit - >15% - Preliminary for now since damages aren't known yet, but it doesn't seem like they were bad enough for retirement.
• Jangmi - ?? - Still active.

That's all for now. Ryan1000 14:47, July 16, 2020 (UTC)

Replacement names

As I reported several days earlier, the PAGASA name for Typhoon Vongfong, Ambo, has been retired because of high damage totals. What that in mind, does anyone have any replacement suggestions? Assuming that Ambo is a male name, some of my ideas are:

• Alfonso
• Amado
• Agapito (Filipino-Spanish name meaning "beloved")
• Apolinario
• Aquilino
• Armando

I am curious to see your thoughts! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:34, May 26, 2020 (UTC)

The PAGASA lists have many names that have Philipino adjectives in them, like "eng", "ong", or "ing" at the end of their names, so a replacement name for Ambo ending with one of those is a possibility as well. Some more, mentioned here, include:

• Abundio
• Abian
• Alysonette
• Angelanie
• Ada
• Aeign

Ryan1000 05:42, June 14, 2020 (UTC)

Here's my take: either they'll go for a "modern" sounding name, something from the old lists (1963-2000, those that end with 'ng') or something that sounds a bit old but very Filipino. Take note that the replacement name does not take gender into account. Sometimes, it's even an object/animal (e.g. Tamaraw for Tisoy). So here's my long list:

• Alan/Allan/Allen
• Amaya
• Asiang
• Atring
• Akang
• Apiang
• Ading
• Aring
• Andrea/Andres/Andrew/Andy/Anding/Andeng
• Albert/Alberto/Alberta
• Alice/Alicia/Ali/Allie/Ally
• Adriano/Adrian
• Agapito/Aga
• Abby/Abigail
• Acacia
• Anahaw
• Alden
• Augusto/Agustin
• Austin
• Alfonso
• Ada
• Arman/Armand/Armando
• Aileen
• Arnel
• Alvin
• Alvaro
• Amanda
• Alma
• Ava
• Agatha
• Ana/Anna/Anita/Ann/Anne/Annie/Aning/Annette
• Arlene
• Aurora (might not be picked because of a province with the same name)
• Agnes
• Alex/Alexander/Alexandra/Alexa
• Alejo
• Adela/Adel/Adele/Adelaida
• Audrey/Aubrey
• Amy
• Axel
• Abel
• Abanico/Abaniko
• Abaca
• Angel/Angela/Angelo
• Amber
• Amalia/Amelia
• Alpha
• Arthur/Arturo
• Astrid (Crazy Rich Asians, anyone?)
• Alba/Albie
• Annika/Anika
• Antonio/Anthony/Anton/Antonia
• Aurelio/Aurelia
• Araceli/Arra/Ara
• Azrael
• Azenith
• Ashley

Short list:

• Adriano/Adrian
• Agapito/Aga
• Angelo/Angela/Angel
• Allan/Allen
• Ada
• Amaya
• Arnel
• Arthur/Arturo
• Anthony/Anton/Antonio
• Ashley

My top picks would be Adrian, Angela, Allen and Ada. Amaya would be a good one too but I think they would pick Arnel. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:21, June 14, 2020 (UTC)

All of these suggestions are very great. I also personally believe that PAGASA will select a name associated with Filipino culture (e.g. Asiang, Arnel). Also, out of curiosity, does PAGASA use human or object names derived from Philippine languages besides Tagalog (e.g. Ilocano, Cebuano) on their tropical cyclone lists? AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:28, June 15, 2020 (UTC)

I think they also use names from other Philippine languages. As far as I know, names such as Uwan and Verbena are not of Tagalog origin. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:14, June 15, 2020 (UTC)