Hurricane Wiki
Advertisement
Active Tropical Cyclones:


This is the forum page for the 2021-22 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season.

  • Please sign your comments using four tildes (~~~~). Place comments that start a new topic at the bottom of the page and give them a descriptive header.
  • Please keep off-topic and political discussion to a minimum, and respect the guidelines listed to the right.
  • Keep betting pools off this page - there are separate forum pages for those. Refer to the navigation tabs at the top of the page for a listing of all the seasonal forums, betting pools, or the Hurricane Hall of Fame.

Forum guidelines

Please respect etiquette and assume good faith. Also, be nice and remain civil.


Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:September-February
Storm Event Archives:

Other Basin Talkpages (2022): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian


Betting pools for this page

Related forums:

March

19S.GOMBE

97S.INVEST

Code yellow on JTWC, code orange on MFR. This is at Madagascar's northeast. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:01, 5 March 2022 (UTC)

Zone of Disturbed Weather 09 (Invest 97S)

Now a ZDW on MFR: 45 kph/30 mph, 1002 mb. Also code red on JTWC (with TCFA issued). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:41, 6 March 2022 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Gombe - Landfall in Madagascar

Named Gombe by MFR. 65 kph/40 mph, 998 mb. Still code red on JTWC though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:07, 7 March 2022 (UTC)

Gombe has made landfall in Madagascar, but not before being upgraded by JTWC to TS status as well: also 65 kph (40 mph). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk)

JTWC forecast makes this a cat 1 with 75-85 mph winds before hitting Mozambique, but turns Gombe south and over the Mozambique Channel some time after landfall. This could bring some damage to the region. Ryan1000 22:26, 8 March 2022 (UTC)

JTWC is upping the ante as Gombe quickly organizes, now their forecast takes this cyclone to 115 mph before hitting Mozambique. Impacts from Gombe could get pretty serious if it hits land at that intensity. Ryan1000 22:37, 9 March 2022 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Gombe

Gombe briefly became an STS... Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:31, 10 March 2022 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Gombe

... but it is now a full-fledged TC. Currently a high-end C1 on SSHWS: 150 kph/90 mph; while the 10-minute average has Gombe at 140 kph/85 mph. Pressure now down to 971. JTWC keeps its low-end C3 forecast peak for Gombe. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:31, 10 March 2022 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Gombe, Landfall in Mozambique & Overland Depression Gombe

And so it did reach 115 mph before landfall...Gombe is now down to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds by JTWC, a quick slip in intensity less than a day after landfall, but it is an overland depression per MFR. Ryan1000 15:36, 11 March 2022 (UTC)

Gombe did become an ITC as well, shortly before its landfall in Mozambique. Unfortunately, 10 fatalities have been reported in the country so far. This season spawned a lot of deadly storms. JTWC has issued its final warning though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:25, 12 March 2022 (UTC)

Remnants of Gombe Gombe/AOI: Off Mozambique

Not sure if this is the same system as Gombe, but it is currently colored orange on MFR's outlook. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:27, 12 March 2022 (UTC)

Welp, so it is also Gombe. Code orange on JTWC, code yellow on MFR. Sadly, the death toll continues to rise, 24 fatalities have been reported so far. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:28, 15 March 2022 (UTC)
Down to code yellow on JTWC; stays the same on MFR. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:01, 16 March 2022 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Gombe

Apparently Gombe briefly became a TD again on 17 March... Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:14, 18 March 2022 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gombe (2nd time) - Aftermath of Gombe

But it's all over now. Sadly, the death toll has risen to 62. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:14, 18 March 2022 (UTC)

AOI: Northeast of Madagascar

And another AOI has been spotted by MFR near Madagascar (again). For a season that started so late, I didn't know that this season would be an active one, probably the most active since the record-breaking 2018-19 season... Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:31, 10 March 2022 (UTC)

Gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:27, 12 March 2022 (UTC)

AOI: Near the SWIO border

Yet another AOI per MFR, this one being located near 90 degrees E and 20 degrees S. Currently colored yellow on MFR. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:27, 12 March 2022 (UTC)

Still code yellow on MFR, not sure if this is the same system as Billy (from AusReg) though.

AOI: Near the SWIO border II

Another AOI near 90 degrees E, this one to the northwest of the preceding AOI; also colored yellow. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:55, 15 March 2022 (UTC)

91S.INVEST

New invest according to JTWC: this one is at the northeastern tip of Madagascar and has been colored orange on the site. Not yet recognized by MFR though.

Welp, it's gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:01, 16 March 2022 (UTC)

AOI: In the open SWIO

New AoI per MFR, or did the two SWIO border AOIs just merge? Anyway, this area of investigation is currently colored yellow on their outlook. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:20, 18 March 2022 (UTC)

Long gone, obviously. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:51, 23 March 2022 (UTC)

22S.HALIMA

Moderate Tropical Storm Halima

The storm that was 94S in the Australian region has now become Moderate Tropical Storm Halima in the SWIO, over the open ocean. Ryan1000 13:15, 23 March 2022 (UTC)

Designated by JTWC as 22S, this system finally became a tropical storm; still 65 kph/40 mph on both JTWC and MFR; pressure is at 996 mb. The former Invest 94S is expected to stay at sea, with JTWC predicting a peak of 85 knots (155 kph/100 mph). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:54, 23 March 2022 (UTC)

Some of the late projections on tidbits recurve this in a loop to the northwest much later, towards Mauritius and Reunion, but that’s over a week in advance. More likely, this will turn southeast after becoming a tropical cyclone and dissipate over colder waters, never to threaten any land. Ryan1000 21:26, 23 March 2022 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Halima

Now 75 mph 10-min, and 105 mph 1-min. Pressure is down to 977 mbars, and JTWC has upped their projected peak intensity of Halima to 130 mph, before weakening it out to sea. Ryan1000 23:53, 24 March 2022 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Halima

Bada BOOM, category 4. 140 mph 1-min winds and 115 10-min. Pressure down to 944 mbars as well. Thankfully it's still well out to sea. Ryan1000 11:53, 25 March 2022 (UTC)

Pressure went down a bit further to 939 mb, but Halima has slightly weakened and is now back to a high-end C3 on the SSHWS. Current winds: 175 kph/110 mph (10-min, MFR), 205 kph/125 mph (1-min, JTWC); pressure at 945 mb. Halima is forecast to make a turn to the east by Tuesday (29 March). This season is really becoming similar to 2018-19 in terms of ITCs (intense tropical cyclones), despite having the latest start of any SWIO season ever. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:22, 26 March 2022 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Halima (2nd time)

Halima is now down to a severe tropical storm; it was one previously but we didn't update the header with it before. Ryan1000 05:31, 27 March 2022 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Halima (2nd time)

Down to a moderate tropical storm, but Halima is one stubborn little storm, expected to hold on for many more days as it slowly turns towards Mauritius and Reunion in the coming week. Ryan1000 10:59, 31 March 2022 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Halima

Last warnings from JTWC and MFR both out over a day ago. LLCC is fully exposed due to intense shear and is devolving into a trough. JavaHurricane 16:37, 3 April 2022 (UTC)

Interestingly, in spite of the hostile shear, the LLCC remained intact and trackable on geostationary satellite imagery as Halima moved west slowly, but it seems the cyclone is finally starting to fully dissipate. JavaHurricane 16:26, 8 April 2022 (UTC)
Looks like it is gone fully now. JavaHurricane 13:44, 12 April 2022 (UTC)

April

After a very active period, the SWIO seemed to have cooled down this month. But there are still 19 days before this month ends. We'll wait and see. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:50, 11 April 2022 (UTC)

91S.INVEST

And a new invest has been spotted; SWIO's inactivity has been cut short. This currently only appears on NRL & Tidbits, and is at the far northeast of Madagascar. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:50, 11 April 2022 (UTC)

Surrounded by too much dry air, should not form; zero model support for now. JavaHurricane 12:49, 12 April 2022 (UTC)

92S.ISSA

Subtropical Depression Issa (Invest 92S)

Formed off the coast of Durban, South Africa. Advisories out from MFR; no word from JTWC yet. JavaHurricane 12:45, 12 April 2022 (UTC)

Now invested, per 12Z ATCF. JavaHurricane 13:43, 12 April 2022 (UTC)
TCFA got cancelled, but Issa's effects have been tremendous in South Africa. The floods caused by this system – which has peaked at 95 kph/60 mph on MFR (10-min) and 75 kph/45 mph on JTWC (1-min) – has sadly caused at least 259 fatalities, mostly due to the flooding in Durban and the rest of KwaZulu-Natal. The total death toll from the floods (including those that were not caused by Issa) has breached the 300 mark – it now stands at 306. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:12, 14 April 2022 (UTC)
Issa is now the deadliest storm in South African history, surpassing Domoina. Death toll now at 340. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 01:25, 15 April 2022 (UTC)

I was perplexed when I saw this off the coast of South Africa, as I've rarely, if ever, seen a tropical cyclone that far southwest in the SWIO, but it's tragic that this storm ended up so deadly for the country; the death toll now rests at 398 people. With such a tragic death toll, 2021-22 is now the 4th deadliest SWIO season on record after 1891-92, 1999-2000, and 2018-19. Ryan1000 14:38, 17 April 2022 (UTC)

93S.INVEST

Monitored on tropical tidbits, this is northeast of Madagascar and is expected to move southwest towards the island or Mozambique. Not likely to become much though. Ryan1000 14:38, 17 April 2022 (UTC)

Gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:26, 19 April 2022 (UTC)

24S.JASMINE

97S.INVEST

Another invest in the SWIO, this just passed northern Madagascar and is expected to move into northern Mozambique over the next day or two. It has an outside chance to become a TS before moving into the country. Ryan1000 21:53, 21 April 2022 (UTC)

Code yellow on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:42, 22 April 2022 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12 (97S)

And it is now a TD per MFR: 55 kph/35 mph, 1003 mb. JTWC has already issued a TCFA too, which means that 97S/TD12 is now "code red", or has a high chance of formation. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:07, 23 April 2022 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Jasmine

Upgraded by both MFR & JTWC and was promptly designated as Jasmine and 24S: 75 kph/45 mph (10-min/MFR), 65 kph/40 mph (1-min/JTWC), 999 mb. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:06, 24 April 2022 (UTC)

Remnants of Jasmine

This reached TC status (had a good eye too) per MFR, before it weakened, made landfall in Madagascar and died as it entered the open ocean. Unfortunately one death reported. JavaHurricane 14:28, 28 April 2022 (UTC)

I guess no one cared to update this before then…Well, with Jasmine’s dissipation, it looks like the 2021-22 SHem season is done, unless there’s a post-season surprise. On other news, the WMO just retired Ida, and the NHC still doesn’t want to push the official AHS start back to May 15 for the upcoming season. Ryan1000 23:53, 28 April 2022 (UTC)

May

25S.KARIM

Moderate Tropical Storm Karim

So this just popped up and is expected to almost reach hurricane strength in 1-minute sustained winds based on the JWTC's latest forecast. This season is now among the most active on record. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 13:31, 7 May 2022 (UTC)

Interesting, this is the first storm to form in the SWIO during May since Jamala of 2013, although Flamboyan of 2018 and Lorna of 2019 lasted into the first day of May briefly. In terms of most active SWIO seasons ever, 2018-19 got one more storm to form in the basin (though there were a few notable crossovers from the AUS region) and 1993-94 got to Odile, though Farah from that year was a two-named crossover from the Australian region. Ryan1000 15:01, 7 May 2022 (UTC)
Karim is the same system as 36U in the Australian Region; it has since reentered that basin yesterday (7 May). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 03:41, 8 May 2022 (UTC)

June

Surprise. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:17, 6 June 2022 (UTC)

93S.INVEST

Apparently, according to NRL and Tropical Tidbits there is a new invest in the South-West Indian Ocean. Not visible on JTWC's main page though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:17, 6 June 2022 (UTC)

94S.INVEST

Well, another invest according to tidbits. Probably not going to become anything. Runner1001 (talk) 13:54, 14 June 2022 (UTC)

Advertisement