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This is the forum page for the 2021-22 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season.

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September

Surprise, surprise. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:59, 22 September 2021 (UTC)

90S.INVEST

Aside from the two Pacific basins, the South-West Indian Ocean basin has been overlooked too... as there's actually an invest that was spotted by JTWC. They even issued a TCFA for this one, but that has already been cancelled; this is now down to code yellow. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:51, 22 September 2021 (UTC)

Welp, it's already gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:12, 23 September 2021 (UTC)

October

Looks like the SWIO (and the SHem in general) is starting to make its presence known again this year, but not quite. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:58, 6 October 2021 (UTC)

91S.INVEST

This was visible on NRL and Tidbits a couple of days ago, but it has since disappeared; however, according to this tweet by @ForceThirteen on Twitter, it has a medium chance of development, though that is, of course, unofficial. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:58, 6 October 2021 (UTC)

And gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:27, 9 October 2021 (UTC)

93S.INVEST

Yet another invest in the SWIO. Code yellow on JTWC right now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:13, 31 October 2021 (UTC)

I no longer see this on Tidbits, so it might be gone now...unless they just forgot to update their site with new data on 93S. Ryan1000 14:12, 1 November 2021 (UTC)


December

98S.INVEST

This was active for some time before, but likely won't form. So it looks like the SWIO won't get Ana until next year; if Ana formed earlier this year, both the SWIO and SPac (and the North Atlantic too) would've had a storm named Ana in the same year. Ryan1000 16:17, 31 December 2021 (UTC)

I don’t think this will form. Maybe busted. Runner1001 (talk) 00:02, 2 January 2022 (UTC)

January

01S.ANA

93S.INVEST

It's on Tidbits now. GFS takes this to a 979 mbar storm and the HWRF a 977 mbar storm as it approaches Madagascar. This is gonna be a significant event. Also now code orange on JTWC.☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 02:44, 21 January 2022 (UTC) EDIT: Didn't realize this was a different 93S. This one's new.

This is now high chance per JTWC, and could finally become Ana before moving into Madagascar. Ryan1000 13:56, 21 January 2022 (UTC)

It sure has taken a long time to get to Ana. Please don't make landfall in Madagascar. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs)

Tropical Depression 01

It became TD 01 on MFR... Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:39, 22 January 2022 (UTC)

Overland Depression 01

... but MFR has since re-categorized 01 into an overland depression. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:39, 22 January 2022 (UTC)

This might finally become Ana in the Mozambique Channel before moving into northern Mozambique, though the runs on tidbits don’t suggest this will get stronger than tropical storm strength. Ryan1000 01:10, 23 January 2022 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Ana

And so, more than two and a half months after the start of the season, a tropical storm has finally formed in the SWIO. Had this formed last year instead, 2021 would've had 3 storms named Ana worldwide, one in the North Atlantic, SPac, and SWIO, but alas, this came over 3 weeks after 2022 began. This isn't expected to get too strong before moving into northern Mozambique, but its organization seems to be improving on satellite imagery and a chance of cat 1 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale can't be entirely ruled out. Ryan1000 01:46, 24 January 2022 (UTC)

Landfall in Mozambique

Despite it's good organization, Ana moved rather quickly to the west and made landfall in Mozambique before it got the chance to strengthen any further. But flooding will be a threat regardless of intensity. Ryan1000 16:54, 24 January 2022 (UTC)

Overland Depression Ana

Ana has degenerated quickly, but it has exacerbated the heavy flooding in Madagascar and claimed 23 lives. Another 11 passed away in the days before Ana's landfall, which meant that the death toll is now at 34. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:17, 25 January 2022 (UTC)

Remnants of Ana

Long gone, but not after causing 88 fatalities. Deadliest in the SWIO since Idai. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:38, 30 January 2022 (UTC)

02S.BATSIRAI

96S.INVEST

This is currently on Tidbits and is just about to cross 90 E and go into the SWIO. The initial runs make this a cat 1-2 nearing Mauritius and Reunion sometime next week. Might be something to watch out for. Ryan1000 00:53, 26 January 2022 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Batsirai

This became Batsirai a short time ago but intensified rapidly, now it is already a category 2 storm with 105 mph winds per JTWC, and an intense tropical cyclone with the same 10-minute winds. Intensity may fluctuate as this approaches Mauritius and Reunion, or Madagascar. Ryan1000 15:00, 27 January 2022 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai (2nd time)

Batsirai weakened to a regular TC on MFR’s scale recently; the small size of the cyclone is a double-edged sword. It blew up fast but is also fast to fall apart when confronted by unfavorable conditions. Some of the runs on tidbits turn this storm south before reaching a landfall on Madagascar, which would be a best-case scenario regarding impacts. Ryan1000 22:51, 27 January 2022 (UTC)

Winds are now 90 mph 10-min, and pressure down to 963 mbars, but JTWC now keeps Batsirai as a hurricane-strength storm all the way to Madagascar, and has it at 120 mph late in the forecast period. The storm is also getting bigger, so rain could be a serious threat if this storm slows down before landfall. Batsirai may be the first really big TC of 2021 regarding impacts on land if this keeps up. Madagascar better watch out for this in the coming week. Ryan1000 01:06, 30 January 2022 (UTC)
110 mph 1-min winds. 963 mbar pressure. Forecast to reach a 125 mph peak before hitting Madagascar as a category 2. Pray to the Lord that this either won't be super strong once it reaches Madagascar or that they'll go through this okay. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 16:45, 30 January 2022 (UTC)
115 mph (1-min), pressure slightly up to 964. Batsirai is forecast by JTWC to pass north of Reunion and Mauritius and eventually peak at 110 knots (125 mph/205 kph) before slightly weakening to 90 kts (105 mph/165 kph). Hoping that Batsirai won't severely exacerbate Ana's impacts. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:41, 30 January 2022 (UTC)

Adding on to Madagascar, it's possible that Batsirai may even survive into the Mozambique Channel and make it to mainland Mozambique at the rate it's going, based on this, though it likely won't be as powerful there due to the high mountains of Madagascar. Still something to watch out for regardless. Ryan1000 21:04, 30 January 2022 (UTC)

A 105 mph cat 2, and forecast peak still at 125 mph. This thing's going up and down. 😅 ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 16:02, 1 February 2022 (UTC)
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