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This is the forum page for the 2021 Pacific hurricane season.

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Forum archives: None

Monthly Archives:May-July, August-September, October-November
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Other Basin Talkpages (2021): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

Future start

Just like the Atlantic, I'm starting this ahead of time too. Ryan1000 18:41, December 1, 2020 (UTC)

The GFS seems to start producing far out tropical cyclones for the EPAC. Another early start for the EPAC? It is far out like I said however.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   16:08, April 24, 2021 (UTC) 

May21EPAC.gif

Something is clearly wrong ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:57, 27 May 2021 (UTC)

E8C9ADF4-264D-4721-91D2-876B27BD1139.jpg

Farewell

Though the Atlantic usually gets more attention, I'll start a section here too about the end of the season. Despite having more named storms in the EPac proper this year than even 2015, most of the storms this year were weak or remained at sea, with only 2 major hurricanes and a slightly below-average ACE of only 93 units. This year did, however, have 4 consecutive hurricane landfalls (Nora, Olaf, Pamela, and Rick), a first for the EPac, and the most hurricane landfalls in an EPac season since 1996, if memory serves. Nora and Ida were also the first Atlantic and EPac landfalling hurricanes on the same day since Felix and Henriette in 2007. This year is also the first since 2012 in which there were no tropical depressions that didn't become tropical storms in either the Atlantic or the EPac. Any other thoughts? Ryan1000 16:09, 1 December 2021 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance

Weather Nerd's Retirement Predictions (Northeast and North-central Pacific 2021)

STORM STRENGTH COLORS: TS, C1 & C2, C3 & C4, C5 (up to 199 mph), 200+ mph C5, Subtropical Storm.

  • Names that have no chance of retirement:
    • Andres, Blanca, Carlos, Felicia, Guillermo, Hilda, Ignacio, Jimena, Kevin, Linda, Marty
  • Names that have a small chance of retirement:
    • Dolores - Caused $50 million (2021 USD) in damages and three fatalities. Retirement chance is 5%.
    • Enrique - Caused $50 million (2021 USD) in damages and two fatalities without ever making a landfall. Retirement chance is 5%.
    • Nora - Caused $100 million (2021 USD) in damages and three fatalities. Retirement chance is 10%.
    • Olaf - This may have actually been a bad one for Baja California Sur. Damage and death totals still unknown. Retirement chance is 10+%.
  • Names that have a decent chance of retirement:
    • None yet
  • Names that will be retired:
    • None yet
  • Currently Active Names (and where I'll think I'll eventually put them on the list):

☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 13:33, 22 September 2021 (UTC)

Beatissima's Retirement Predictions

  • Andres: 0%
  • Blanca: 0%
  • Carlos: 0%
  • Dolores: 3%
  • Enrique: 2%
  • Felicia: 0%
  • Guillermo: 0%
  • Hilda: 0%
  • Ignacio: 0%
  • Jimena: 0%
  • Kevin: 0%
  • Linda: 0%
  • Marty: 0%
  • Nora: 5%
  • Olaf: 1%
  • Pamela: 20%
  • Rick: 1%
  • Sandra: currently active
  • Terry: currently active

Beatissima (talk) 03:49, 16 August 2021 (UTC)

Jas' Retirement Predictions

Certainly retired: N/A Likely to be retired: N/A Likely not to be retired: Dolores, Enrique, Nora Kinda notable but not retirement-worthy: Olaf, Pamela, Rick Not going anywhere: the rest of the names

Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:02, 21 November 2021 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes

Name Operational Intensity and Duration Reanalysis Intensity and Duration TCR Release Date
Andres 40 mph, 1005 mbars, May 9-11 40 mph, 1005 mbars, May 9-11 June 30, 2021
Blanca 60 mph, 998 mbars, May 30-June 4 60 mph, 998 mbars, May 30-June 3 October 4, 2021
Carlos 50 mph, 1000 mbars, June 12-16 50 mph, 1003 mbars, June 12-16 December 14, 2021
Dolores 70 mph, 990 mbars, June 18-20 70 mph, 989 mbars, June 18-20 January 5, 2022
Enrique 90 mph, 975 mbars, June 25-30 90 mph, 972 mbars, June 25-30 November 2, 2021
Felicia 145 mph, 947 mbars, July 14-21 145 mph, 945 mbars, July 14-20 September 9, 2021
Guillermo 60 mph, 999 mbars, July 17-20 60 mph, 999 mbars, July 17-20 August 15, 2021
Hilda 85 mph, 985 mbars, July 30-Aug.6 N/A N/A
Jimena 40 mph, 1005 mbars, July 30-Aug.1/5-7 N/A N/A
Ignacio 40 mph, 1004 mbars, August 1-4 40 mph, 1004 mbars, August 1-3 November 5, 2021
Kevin 60 mph, 999 mbars, August 7-12 60 mph, 994 mbars, August 7-12 December 2, 2021
Linda 130 mph, 950 mbars, August 10-20 130 mph, 953 mbars, August 10-19 December 8, 2021
Marty 45 mph, 1000 mbars, August 23-24 45 mph, 1002 mbars, August 23-24 September 30, 2021
Nora 85 mph, 977 mbars, August 25-30 N/A N/A
Olaf 100 mph, 974 mbars, September 7-11 N/A N/A
Pamela 80 mph, 985 mbars, October 10-14 75 mph, 987 mbars, October 10-13 November 29, 2021
Rick 105 mph, 977 mbars, October 22-26 N/A N/A
Terry 45 mph, 1004 mbars, November 4-10 N/A N/A
Sandra 40 mph, 1006 mbars, November 7-9 N/A N/A

Oh wow, already our first EPAC TCR of the 2021 season, and it's from Andres. No major changes it seems.  ~ Roy25   Talk | Contributions   15:32, July 01, 2021 (UTC) 

And it was done only 3 weeks after the last one from 2020 (Eta) was finished. That may be the closest gap between the last TCR from one year and the first TCR from the next that I've ever seen. Ryan1000 17:31, 4 July 2021 (UTC)

Less than a month after it dissipated, like 2018's Paul, Guillermo is out, completed yesterday. Not much to say though. Ryan1000 19:11, 16 August 2021 (UTC)

Felicia is out, completed 4 days ago. Pressure got buffed by 2 mbars, but her duration was cut a day short. Ryan1000 16:14, 13 September 2021 (UTC)

Marty is out, completed 3 days ago. And if he hadn't already had it hard enough as one of our yearly failures, he was actually nerfed more in reanalysis, by 2 mbars. Turns out McFly really is nothing but a little chicken... Ryan1000 06:01, 2 October 2021 (UTC)

Blanca is out, released today. No change to intensity but her duration got cut a day short at the end. Ryan1000 23:58, 4 October 2021 (UTC)

Enrique was released today, pressure was buffed 3 mbars from 975 to 972. Ryan1000 23:57, 2 November 2021 (UTC)

Ignacio was released 4 days ago, duration was cut short at the end. Ryan1000 14:56, 9 November 2021 (UTC)

Pamela was released 2 days ago, intensity was toned down slightly and she dissipated on the 13th, one day earlier than originally thought. Ryan1000 15:56, 1 December 2021 (UTC)

Kevin and Linda are out, released on the 2nd and 8th respectively. Kevin's pressure was buffed by 5 mbars but Linda's was nerfed by 3 and was found to have dissipated a day sooner. Ryan1000 02:22, 13 December 2021 (UTC)

Like Peter in the Atlantic, Carlos was released yesterday, pressure got nerfed by 3 mbars. Ryan1000 12:32, 15 December 2021 (UTC)

Dolores was released 3 days ago, pressure got buffed by 1 mbar. Ryan1000 15:52, 8 January 2022 (UTC)
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