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Other Basin Talkpages (2021): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian |
Future start
Just like the Atlantic, I'm starting this ahead of time too. Ryan1000 18:41, December 1, 2020 (UTC)
- The GFS seems to start producing far out tropical cyclones for the EPAC. Another early start for the EPAC? It is far out like I said however. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 16:08, April 24, 2021 (UTC)
Something is clearly wrong ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 00:57, 27 May 2021 (UTC)
October
The EPac had an inactive September, let's see if it could catch up with the Atlantic in October. Like in the WPac, I am starting this section three days early (especially because there is an AOI which will likely be an October system if it forms). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:47, 28 September 2021 (UTC)
AOI: 1,100 miles SE of Hilo, Hawaii
We have another AOI in the CPac. 10/30. Runner1001 (talk) 08:27, 1 October 2021 (UTC)
- Still 10/30, hopefully this somehow forms... I want a CPac storm this year (though maybe that would come from invest 90E, which is still at 20/40). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:13, 1 October 2021 (UTC)
- Down a bit to 10/20. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:02, 1 October 2021 (UTC)
- Sorry Jas, but it looks like it is not happening for now. ~0/~0. Runner1001 (talk) 02:01, 2 October 2021 (UTC)
- Down a bit to 10/20. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:02, 1 October 2021 (UTC)
*crickets chirping* Beatissima (talk) 02:42, 4 October 2021 (UTC)
16E.NONAME
AOI: South of Mexico
Another AOI is up on the EPac TWO, but this only 0/20. Not likely to become much as it moves out to sea, unfortunately. Ryan1000 00:08, 5 October 2021 (UTC)
- 0/30. Runner1001 (talk) 14:09, 5 October 2021 (UTC)
- 0/50. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:53, 6 October 2021 (UTC)
- 0/60. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 03:13, 7 October 2021 (UTC)
- 10/70. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:24, 7 October 2021 (UTC)
- 0/60. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 03:13, 7 October 2021 (UTC)
- 0/50. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:53, 6 October 2021 (UTC)
20/70 as of the latest update. Things have taken a dark turn and the GFS and CMC models make this sprout to a cat 2-4 hurricane and potentially slam Mexico's west coast a la Patricia/Willa. Only the ECMWF takes this out to sea. We will see what this storm will become in the future, and hopefully not another Patricia/Willa. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 20:47, 7 October 2021 (UTC)
- 30/80 now, and the models are really picking up on this storm now, while they didn’t show much before. The current area of formation seems to suggest that this will remain at sea, but if it comes closer to Mexico than expected then a landfall can’t be ruled out. Hopefully this won’t pull a repeat of Kenna, Patricia, Willa, etc. 4-day long cat 5’s like them have little warning before landfall. Ryan1000 23:45, 7 October 2021 (UTC)
91E.INVEST
Still 70/90. Hopefully future Pamela won't be like the one she replaced (Patricia). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 03:56, 9 October 2021 (UTC)
- 80/90. Runner1001 (talk) 11:57, 9 October 2021 (UTC)
- 90/90. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 19:45, 9 October 2021 (UTC)
Most of the runs on tidbits now recurve this towards Mexico in a fashion similar to Kenna and Willa, at or just north of Puerto Vallarta. On top of that, almost all of the initial intensity projections are up to hurricane intensity, at least cat 1 or 2, before this makes landfall. But if this manages to pull some serious rapid intensification before landfall, then, as crazy as it sounds, this might even reach cat 5 just like Kenna, Patricia, and Willa. Hopefully it doesn’t though; like I said, storms like this may have very little warning before landfall if they do explode. Ryan1000 21:52, 9 October 2021 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E
Now a Tropical Depression and expected to be a Cat 2-3 Willa repeat on the first advisory. I don't like this storm, getting bad vibes from it. Plus the fact that the current forecast has Cabo San Lucas in the cone of uncertainty means Baja California Sur may get two bad hurricanes this year if push comes to shove. Has that ever happened before? ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 14:22, 10 October 2021 (UTC)
Retirements at a Glance
Weather Nerd's Retirement Predictions (Northeast and North-central Pacific 2021)
STORM STRENGTH COLORS: TS, C1 & C2, C3 & C4, C5 (up to 199 mph), 200+ mph C5, Subtropical Storm.
- Names that have no chance of retirement:
- Andres, Blanca, Carlos, Felicia, Guillermo, Hilda, Ignacio, Jimena, Kevin, Linda, Marty
- Names that have a small chance of retirement:
- Dolores - Caused $50 million (2021 USD) in damages and three fatalities. Retirement chance is 5%.
- Enrique - Caused $50 million (2021 USD) in damages and two fatalities without ever making a landfall. Retirement chance is 5%.
- Nora - Caused $100 million (2021 USD) in damages and three fatalities. Retirement chance is 10%.
- Olaf - This may have actually been a bad one for Baja California Sur. Damage and death totals still unknown. Retirement chance is 10+%.
- Names that have a decent chance of retirement:
- None yet
- Names that will be retired:
- None yet
- Currently Active Names (and where I'll think I'll eventually put them on the list):
☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 13:33, 22 September 2021 (UTC)
Beatissima's Retirement Predictions
- Andres: 0%
- Blanca: 0%
- Carlos: 0%
- Dolores: 3%
- Enrique: 2%
- Felicia: 0%
- Guillermo: 0%
- Hilda: 0%
- Ignacio: 0%
- Jimena: 0%
- Kevin: 0%
- Linda: 0%
- Marty: 0%
- Nora: 5%
- Olaf: 1%
Beatissima (talk) 03:49, 16 August 2021 (UTC)
Post-Season Changes
| Name | Operational Intensity and Duration | Reanalysis Intensity and Duration | TCR Release Date |
| Andres | 40 mph, 1005 mbars, May 9-11 | 40 mph, 1005 mbars, May 9-11 | June 30, 2021 |
| Blanca | 60 mph, 998 mbars, May 30-June 4 | 60 mph, 998 mbars, May 30-June 3 | October 4, 2021 |
| Carlos | 50 mph, 1000 mbars, June 12-16 | N/A | N/A |
| Dolores | 70 mph, 990 mbars, June 18-20 | N/A | N/A |
| Enrique | 90 mph, 975 mbars, June 25-30 | N/A | N/A |
| Felicia | 145 mph, 947 mbars, July 14-21 | 145 mph, 945 mbars, July 14-20 | September 9, 2021 |
| Guillermo | 60 mph, 999 mbars, July 17-20 | 60 mph, 999 mbars, July 17-20 | August 15, 2021 |
| Hilda | 85 mph, 985 mbars, July 30-Aug.6 | N/A | N/A |
| Jimena | 40 mph, 1005 mbars, July 30-Aug.1/5-7 | N/A | N/A |
| Ignacio | 40 mph, 1004 mbars, August 1-4 | N/A | N/A |
| Kevin | 60 mph, 999 mbars, August 7-12 | N/A | N/A |
| Linda | 130 mph, 950 mbars, August 10-20 | N/A | N/A |
| Marty | 45 mph, 1000 mbars, August 23-24 | 45 mph, 1002 mbars, August 23-24 | September 30, 2021 |
| Nora | 85 mph, 977 mbars, August 25-30 | N/A | N/A |
| Olaf | 100 mph, 974 mbars, September 7-11 | N/A | N/A |
Oh wow, already our first EPAC TCR of the 2021 season, and it's from Andres. No major changes it seems. ~ Roy25 Talk | Contributions 15:32, July 01, 2021 (UTC)
- And it was done only 3 weeks after the last one from 2020 (Eta) was finished. That may be the closest gap between the last TCR from one year and the first TCR from the next that I've ever seen. Ryan1000 17:31, 4 July 2021 (UTC)
Less than a month after it dissipated, like 2018's Paul, Guillermo is out, completed yesterday. Not much to say though. Ryan1000 19:11, 16 August 2021 (UTC)
- Felicia is out, completed 4 days ago. Pressure got buffed by 2 mbars, but her duration was cut a day short. Ryan1000 16:14, 13 September 2021 (UTC)
Marty is out, completed 3 days ago. And if he hadn't already had it hard enough as one of our yearly failures, he was actually nerfed more in reanalysis, by 2 mbars. Turns out McFly really is nothing but a little chicken... Ryan1000 06:01, 2 October 2021 (UTC)