Forum:2021 Pacific typhoon season

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This is the forum page for the 2021 Pacific typhoon season.

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Monthly Archives:January-July, August-September Storm Event Archives:In-fa

Other Basin Talkpages (2021): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

Future start

Just like the Atlantic, I'm starting this early too. Ryan1000 18:42, December 1, 2020 (UTC) http://typhooncommittee.org/53rd/docs/item%2012/12.1%20Replacement%20of%20Typhoon%20Names%20-%20Clarence.pdf Replacement for 2019 name file.ʙɪʟʟ2903 (talk) 04:42, 31 January 2021 (UTC)

October

Starting this section three days early, despite WPac's relative inactivity. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:45, 28 September 2021 (UTC)

22W.LIONROCK (LANNIE)

92W.INVEST

Code yellow on JTWC. This one is at the east of southern Philippines. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:53, 2 October 2021 (UTC)

Oh, it's now code red! TCFA issued. Not sure if this will become Lannie or Lionrock though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:56, 3 October 2021 (UTC)

Invest 92W (Lannie)

Only PAGASA has upgraded 92W to Lannie; JTWC has cancelled their TCFA, as this system is now down to code orange. Per PAGASA: 45 kph/30 mph, 1004 mbar. (JMA, which puts this at 1006 mb, still considers this as an area of low pressure). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:15, 4 October 2021 (UTC)

Welp, JTWC issued a TCFA again (and 92W is back to code red too). Might become Lionrock once it enters the South China Sea. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:36, 4 October 2021 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (92W/Lannie)

Still code red on JTWC but JMA has upgraded Lannie/92W to a TD. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:12, 5 October 2021 (UTC)

92W remains at code red. I'm starting to wonder if this becomes 21W... not even counting on Lionrock anymore. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:52, 6 October 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 22W

Finally upgraded by JTWC to a TD. 22W is currently almost stationary southeast of Hainan. Let's see if this becomes Lionrock or Kompasu. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:25, 7 October 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lionrock

And so this becomes Lionrock. Still moving very slowly off Hainan. 65 kph/40 mph on both JMA and JTWC, pressure down to 992. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:39, 8 October 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lionrock

Down to a TD after making landfall near Haiphong. Lionrock also caused notable disruptions in Hong Kong despite being located far from it (Signal No. 8 was raised for quite a long time in HK). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:28, 10 October 2021 (UTC)

Remnants of Lionrock

And out. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:38, 11 October 2021 (UTC)

24W.KOMPASU (MARING)

93W.INVEST

Yet another invest in the WPac! This one is at the east of 92W and is not yet visible on JTWC, only monitored by Tidbits and NRL so far. Maybe those runs by GFS in the past few days weren't out-of-this-world after all... Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:22, 3 October 2021 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 93W)

Still not visible on JTWC's main page but already considered by JMA as a TD. PAGASA yet to follow suit. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 03:15, 7 October 2021 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (93W/Maring)

PAGASA follows suit; this has been named Maring. Current wind speeds: 55 kph/35 mph (JMA), 45 kph/30 mph (PAGASA). Pressure: 1002 mbar (PAGASA), 1004 mbar (JMA). Only code yellow on JTWC though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:23, 7 October 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kompasu (Maring)

Oh, JMA has upgraded 93W to a TS, giving it the name Kompasu. PAGASA still holds TD status for now, while JTWC does not even consider this as a tropical cyclone yet (although it's now upped to medium chance of development). Current stats: 65 kph/40 mph (JMA), 55 kph/35 mph (PAGASA); 998 hPa (JMA), 1000 hPa (PAGASA). Apparently this is currently a monsoonal gyre at the moment, and 94W is expected to merge with Kompasu later on (even PAGASA is saying the same thing in their TC Advisory for 94W). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:39, 8 October 2021 (UTC)

Apparently JTWC cancelled the TCFA for 93W/Kompasu and not for 94W... they consider this system as the one that survived. However, PAGASA considers 93W (Maring) as the surviving entity, with 94W/Nando becoming a low pressure area. In any case, the two are considered by JMA as one system: Kompasu. Still a monsoon depression though, albeit a very huge one. Current stats: 85 kph/50 mph (10-min winds, JMA & PAGASA), 55 kph/35 mph (1-min winds, JTWC), 992 mbar (PAGASA), 990 mbar (JMA). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:25, 9 October 2021 (UTC)

And JTWC finally designates 94W as 24W. Nando's subsection has been revived, following what transpired in the Wikipedia talk page about this monsoon depression situation. Anyway. here are Kompasu's current stats: 85 kph/50 mph (all 3 agencies), 992 mb (PAGASA), 985 mb (JMA). The storm still remains very large; apparently this is the largest storm (in size) that JMA has ever tracked. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:33, 10 October 2021 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Kompasu (Maring) - Landfall in Fuga Island

Upgraded to STS by both PAGASA and JMA. Current maximum sustained winds: 95 kph/60 mph (both 10-min & 1-min, all three agencies (JMA, JTWC & PAGASA)), 980 mb (both JMA & PAGASA). Expected to cross the northern portion of Luzon in the coming hours. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:38, 11 October 2021 (UTC)

Made landfall in Fuga Island yesterday (off the northern coast of Luzon). Sadly, 9 people have been reported as dead. Record rainfall fell in several areas of Northern Luzon yesterday; many provinces were submerged in floodwaters (most especially Cagayan, Ilocos Sur and La Union, and also parts of Benguet). There is a high chance that Maring will finally be retired after 57 years; it was first used in 1964 to a TD that was only recognized by the old Philippine Weather Bureau, PAGASA's predecessor (PAGASA was only founded in 1972). Personally though, I think it should have been retired for its 2013 incarnation that caused severe flooding too (albeit indirect because of the southwest monsoon). As for Kompasu, it seems that there is some sort of a curse befalling Japanese-named storms that hit the Philippines; that 'curse' started with 2011's Washi (Sendong), which was continued by Koppu (Lando) in 2015, Tembin (Vinta) in 2017 and Kammuri (Tisoy) in 2019. It also seems to be the same thing for Philippine-named storms which proved to be deadly & destructive for Japan: Talas (2011) and Hagibis (2019). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:50, 12 October 2021 (UTC)

Landfall in Hainan - Tropical Storm Kompasu (2nd time)

Made landfall in Hainan and is now down to a TS. Kompasu is currently packing winds of 85 kph/50 mph (on both JMA and JTWC), with pressure at 990 mb. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 19:47, 13 October 2021 (UTC)

Remnants of Kompasu

Long gone, and caused more damage than expected. Runner1001 (talk) 11:44, 16 October 2021 (UTC)

94W.NONAME (NANDO)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 94W)

Yet another invest which is already considered by JMA as a TD. This one is at 93W's east. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:23, 7 October 2021 (UTC)

Already code orange on JTWC; PAGASA also considers this as a TD outside its area. Current wind speeds: 45 kph/30 mph (PAGASA), >55 kph/35 mph (JMA). Pressure at 1002 mb (PAGASA) / 1004 mb (JMA). As I said above, 94W is expected to unite with 93W. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:36, 8 October 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nando

Only PAGASA recognizes this as a TD now (JMA already says this is actually part of Kompasu). Code red on JTWC though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:20, 9 October 2021 (UTC)

Remnants of Nando

Revived the subsection for Nando/original 94W because it has gotten a lot confusing. Monsoon depressions are weird. Anyway, officially (per JMA) it was 94W that merged with 93W and not the other way around. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:33, 10 October 2021 (UTC)

23W.NAMTHEUN

95W.INVEST

The WPac has awakened. New invest, relatively midway between 94W and the Dateline. Also code orange on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:36, 8 October 2021 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 95W)

Upgraded by JMA to a TD, code red on JTWC with TCFA issued. Expected to become Namtheun and will likely stay at sea. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:34, 9 October 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 23W

Upgraded by JTWC to a TD before Kompasu but not long after their upgrade... Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:36, 10 October 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Namtheun

... JMA also upgraded it to a TS, giving it the name Namtheun. 65 kph on JMA, 75 kph on JTWC. Pressure at 1000 hPa. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:36, 10 October 2021 (UTC)

75 kph on JMA, 85 kph on JTWC. 998 mb. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:39, 11 October 2021 (UTC)

75 kph on JMA, 65 kph on JTWC. 1000 mb. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 19:48, 13 October 2021 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Namtheun

Apologies for not updating this for quite some time. Namtheun, against the odds, became an STS on JMA and a C1 typhoon on JTWC. Current winds: 95 kph/60 mph (JMA), 120 kph/75 mph (JTWC); pressure at 996. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:34, 16 October 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Namtheun (2nd time)

Was down to TS status some time ago, but... Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:24, 17 October 2021 (UTC)

Remnants of Namtheun

... as of today, Namtheun has been downgraded by JMA to a low (with a pressure of 1000 mb). Oddly, JTWC still hasn't issued their final warning yet (it remains a TS on JTWC: 65 kph/40 mph). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:24, 17 October 2021 (UTC)

96W.INVEST

New invest near Guam according to Tidbits. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:32, 11 October 2021 (UTC)

Code yellow now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:20, 12 October 2021 (UTC)

And it's now gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 19:48, 13 October 2021 (UTC)

97W.INVEST

New invest off the eastern coast of Vietnam per Tropical Tidbits and NRL. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:35, 16 October 2021 (UTC)

Gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:24, 17 October 2021 (UTC)

25W.MALOU

98W.INVEST

Only appears on Tidbits and NRL. This is in the open Pacific. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:48, 20 October 2021 (UTC)

And it's gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 06:32, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

Never mind, it's back. At least on Tidbits and NRL. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:53, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

Code orange now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:32, 23 October 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 25W

Now a TD on both JMA and JTWC. This one, I think, will win the race to Malou. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:21, 24 October 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Malou

And so it becomes Malou: 65 kph/40 mph (both JMA & JTWC), 1002 mbar. Likely to become another fishspinning typhoon. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:47, 25 October 2021 (UTC)

Most of the models suggest that this will be Mindulle 2.0, only it will be weaker and the track will shift more east. Runner1001 (talk) 10:29, 25 October 2021 (UTC)

Typhoon Malou

And it has intensified to a typhoon. Malou is currently a C1; current maximum sustained winds are as follows: 120 kph/75 mph (JMA/10-min); 130 kph/80 mph (JTWC/1-min). Pressure at 975 mb. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:25, 27 October 2021 (UTC)

Remnants of Malou

Although Malou is hard-working, wind shear still made her transit into an extratropical cyclone. Runner1001 (talk) 13:23, 30 October 2021 (UTC)

26W.NONAME

99W.INVEST

New invest between Palawan and the islands of Visayas & Mindanao. Might develop once it enters the South China Sea, but for now it is only visible on Tidbits and NRL. Not sure if this could become the third Odette for this year (and possibly, Malou). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:32, 23 October 2021 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 99W)

A non-warning TD at JMA now. Might not be named Odette because PAGASA still considers this as a low pressure area like JTWC, and it is on its way out of Philippine territory. Speaking of JTWC, this one is at code orange now (medium chance of formation). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:24, 24 October 2021 (UTC)

Code red now; TCFA issued. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:59, 25 October 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 26W

Upgraded by JTWC to a TD: 45 kph/30 mph. Still a non-warning TD on JMA as it moves slowly towards Vietnam. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:05, 26 October 2021 (UTC)

Made landfall in Vietnam and JTWC has issued its final warning (after just 4 advisories); JMA likely to follow suit in the coming hours. Hopefully this wasn't that bad for Vietnam. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:26, 27 October 2021 (UTC)

Remnants of 26W

Long gone by now. Runner1001 (talk) 13:23, 30 October 2021 (UTC)

November

91W.INVEST

We have another invest in the South China Sea. In fact, it’s been on Tidbits for a while now. Runner1001 (talk) 01:02, 6 November 2021 (UTC)

Gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:38, 26 November 2021 (UTC)

92W.INVEST

Another Invest east of the Philippines, close to where 91W came from. Runner1001 (talk) 01:02, 6 November 2021 (UTC)

Long gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:36, 26 November 2021 (UTC)

27W.NONAME

93W.INVEST

Wow. After a very inactive November for nearly all the world's tropical cyclone basins (especially in the northern hemisphere), there is finally a new invest. This one is in the open Pacific, and is likely to stay at sea (although some forecast tracks take it towards the Philippines). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:36, 26 November 2021 (UTC)

Now code yellow on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:45, 26 November 2021 (UTC)

Now code red, TCFA issued. JMA finally considers this as an area of low pressure (like 94W). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:21, 28 November 2021 (UTC)

27W.NONAME

Now a tropical depression on tidbits. Runner1001 (talk) 15:03, 29 November 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 27W

It's a 35 knot tropical storm now according to JTWC Warning #2. It's expected to reach 95 knots (or 110 mph) at its peak. The current forecast cone can be seen here. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 23:53, 29 November 2021 (UTC)

94W.INVEST

Oh wow, another invest! This one is southeast of Vietnam, midway between peninsular and insular Malaysia. Might cross to NIO. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:43, 26 November 2021 (UTC)

Code yellow on JTWC. Also being monitored by JMA as a low pressure area now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:22, 28 November 2021 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance

Ryan1000's Retirement predictions

We have more than enough storms in the 2021 WPac season thus far to begin this section, so, let's go for it. My thoughts on retirements so far are:

JMA:

• Dujuan - 3% - An early-season tropical storm for the Philippines, but nothing too serious for them.
• Surigae - 4% - Powerful and mighty, but regarding impacts, was only slightly worse than Dujuan.
• Choi-wan - 3% - Brought some rains to the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan, but nothing too much, like the previous two storms.
• Koguma - 1% - Minor impacts from some rain in Hainan and North Vietnam, but nothing to retire over.
• Champi - 0% - First fishspinning typhoon of the year.
• In-fa - 100% - Although final totals aren't yet known, In-fa was reportedly China's 2nd wettest tropical storm on record after Nina of 1975 and the reports of flooding in the Yangtze River Valley and around Shanghai are chilling. Damage from In-fa was absolutely catastrophic in multiple locations in China and the death toll may sadly be very high when all is said and done. I'd be surprised if In-fa doesn't surpass Typhoon Fitow of 2013 as China's costliest typhoon on record when all is said and done, and there's no way In-fa won't be retired after this year.
• Cempaka - 2% - Wasn't much worse than Koguma.
• Nepartak - 1% - Temporarily disrupted the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo and made a very rare landfall in the northeastern tip of Japan's main island, but impacts weren't too severe.
• Lupit - 1% - Minor damage at worst.
• Nida - 0% - Total fishspinner.
• Mirinae - 0% - Another fishie.
• Omais - 1% - Quite resilient for a tropical storm whose origins can be traced all the way back to the CPac, like Halola, but effects were minor at worst.
• Conson - 3% - Brought some damage and killed 17 in the Philippines, but they've seen worse.
• Chanthu - ?? - Still active, but some of the batanes (northernmost Philippine Islands) got battered by this, and brought impacts elsewhere too.

PAGASA:

• Nothing meets their retirement criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 deaths thus far.

That's all for now. Ryan1000 05:52, 2 August 2021 (UTC)

Jas' Retirement Predictions

JMA: Certainly retired: N/A Likely to be retired: In-fa, Conson, Kompasu Likely not to be retired: Surigae Kinda notable but not retirement-worthy: Cempaka, Lupit, Chanthu Not going anywhere: the rest of the used names

PAGASA: Certainly retired: Jolina, Maring Likely to be retired: N/A Likely not to be retired: N/A Kinda notable but not retirement-worthy: Bising, Fabian, Huaning, Kiko Not going anywhere: the rest of the used names

Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:00, 21 November 2021 (UTC)