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This is the forum page for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

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Other Basin Talkpages (2022): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

Atlantic Season Discussions
2021 · 2022 · 2023

Future Start

We've got 10 days until 2022 begins, so I'll make the 2022 forums now. Ryan1000 18:37, 22 December 2021 (UTC)

This is shaping up to be yet another active season (yeah, I'm getting a bit tired of these above average years at this point). I predict the United States mainland will see 3-4 hurricane landfalls, of which 1-2 will be major hurricanes. Hopefully 2023 is much quieter than these past seven years! ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 14:22, 3 May 2022 (UTC)

Hall of Fame 2022

Since it's now 2022, anytime this year you guys can vote on which notable storms you want to induct into the Hall of Fame in each basin. Ryan1000 19:40, 6 January 2022 (UTC)

Seasonal Forecasts

Name of Agency Named Storms forecast Hurricanes forecast Major Hurricanes forecast ACE forecast Date Issued
Colorado State University (CSU) 13-16 6-8 2-3 124 Units December 9, 2021
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) 18 8 3 122 Units December 10, 2021
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) 18 8 4 138 Units April 6, 2022
Colorado State University (CSU) 19 9 4 160 Units April 7, 2022
The Weather Channel (TWC) 20 8 4 N/A April 14, 2022
University of Arizona (UA) 14 7 3 129 Units April 14, 2022
North Carolina State University (NCSU) 17-21 7-9 3-5 N/A April 20, 2022
United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) 18 9 4 N/A May 23, 2022
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 14-21 6-10 3-6 N/A May 24, 2022
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) 18 8 4 140 May 31, 2022
Colorado State University (CSU) 20 10 5 180 June 2, 2022

Like with last year, we'll add a seasonal forecast section for this year. So far, two official forecasts have been issued, by CSU and TSR, and they show yet another above-average year, but they have been described as having "high uncertainties", as it's still too early to tell for sure. Ryan1000 19:40, 6 January 2022 (UTC)

TSR and CSU just released their April forecasts for 2022, and once again both agencies predict an above-average season, but they're more confident this time due to higher confidence in El Nino not being expected this year. Ryan1000 18:58, 8 April 2022 (UTC)

Two more forecasts were issued last Thursday, The Weather Channel and University of Arizona. The former predicts 20/8/4 for named storms, hurricanes, and majors respectively, but ACE totals were not predicted. UA forecasts 14/7/3, one of the more conservative named storm forecasts thus far, and 129 ACE units, slightly above average. Ryan1000 14:22, 17 April 2022 (UTC)

North Carolina State University (NCSU) published a forecast on April 20, calling for 17-21 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 majors, but no ACE totals were forecast. Ryan1000 13:42, 25 April 2022 (UTC)
NOAA put out their forecast today, 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 majors, with a 65% chance of an above-average season, 25% of near-normal, and 10% of below-average. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 18:51, 24 May 2022 (UTC)

UKMO released their forecast a day before NOAA's a week ago, and predicted 18-9-4 for TS's, 'canes, and majors. The WP article also cites a Penn state forecast, calling for 11-19 named storms, but no hurricanes, majors, or ACE totals were forecast there. Ryan1000 15:11, 31 May 2022 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Risk and Colorado State University updated their predictions recently, TSR predicted 18-8-4 and 140 ACE units on May 31 and CSU predicted 20-10-5 with 180 ACE units on June 2. Ryan1000 17:26, 7 June 2022 (UTC)

May

Seeing the trend the Atlantic has been setting the past 6 years (or maybe it’s just better storm detection by the NHC), I’ll start the May section now. We could very well have a seventh consecutive year with a May or earlier storm sometime in the next 3 and a half weeks. Ryan1000 01:39, 6 May 2022 (UTC)

It's actually been seven years already; Ana's been a preseason storm twice in a row. And looking at some GFS runs over the past two days, they've been consistently developing something in the Caribbean that moves into the Gulf in about a week's time. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the first Atlantic invest sometime near the start of the TWOs. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 02:36, 14 May 2022 (UTC)
I remember one of those GFS runs made this a Katrina-sized 950 mbar major, which is basically a near-impossibility for May in the Atlantic. I've even seen ECMWF runs make this Agatha or Blas in the Eastern Pacific. This one will be interesting to watch. In fact, the latest run from the GFS still makes this a hurricane too strong for this early in the year. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 12:39, 14 May 2022 (UTC)
Tomorrow begins the issuance of the tropical weather outlooks! I'm not completely on board with the GFS yet. I think it will be helpful to wait to see if the Euro and others follow. Here's to the season ahead - which looks like yet another active one. Owen 18:16, 14 May 2022 (UTC)

NHC Update: Nothing expected to form in five days in either ocean. The GFS, however, still has a hurricane in the Gulf (which surprises me, considering it's a May system), the ECMWF and the CMC have this becoming an invest of sorts in the eastern Pacific, but not becoming a full tropical cyclone. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 12:51, 15 May 2022 (UTC)

Forgot to count the starting year for the streak, for some reason…but in any instance, the weather looks unsettled near Panama right now and I had a feeling that the models might pick up on a storm forming in the SW Caribbean or EPac in May around that area, and it looks like they have…maybe Alex, like Ana and Alberto, could have a second consecutive pre-season incarnation. Ryan1000 00:26, 19 May 2022 (UTC)
I'm honestly not as sure of that at the moment; the GFS has been backing off of its predictions (so sadly no longer predicting the totally accurate major in the Gulf in May), and the ECMWF and other models haven't really picked up anything. Still too early to rule out something developing at the very end of the month, but the safer bet is that not having a pre-season storm is more likely than having one, and that seems to be moving safer at the moment. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 02:47, 19 May 2022 (UTC)

90L.INVEST

AOI: North Central Gulf of Mexico

And the first Atlantic AOI is here. Associated with a weak surface trough heading towards the coast. Only 10/10 because of the lack of time to develop, and honestly that seems a bit generous. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 18:36, 22 May 2022 (UTC)

Yep, it's gone without really doing anything Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 18:51, 24 May 2022 (UTC)
Think this system was designated as 90L before going bust. Anyway, this season might finally break the early start streak that had been going on since 2015, though there is still a chance that a late May storm may form. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 19:17, 25 May 2022 (UTC)

June

Starting this 4 days before the start of the next month. Looks like the early streak ends this year. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:33, 28 May 2022 (UTC)

Yeah, the only way it could (technically) continue is if Agatha moves into the BOC as a tropical storm sometime on May 31, in which case it would technically count as a May storm in the Atlantic, just not an Atlantic-forming system. Ryan1000 23:42, 28 May 2022 (UTC)

01L.ALEX

AOI: Agatha's remnants

The TWO for the Atlantic shows that Agatha (or even potentially a new area of low pressure) has a 30% chance of developing within the Bay of Campeche and/or northwestern Caribbean within 5 days. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 16:22, 29 May 2022 (UTC)

And it's up to 0/50 Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 03:43, 31 May 2022 (UTC)
10/60 now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:21, 31 May 2022 (UTC)
30/70. GFS makes this a tropical depression or weak tropical storm going south of Florida, ECMWF has it a little stronger and a little farther north. CMC has it very weak like the GFS, but taking a path closer to the ECMWF. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 18:47, 31 May 2022 (UTC)

While the streak of storms forming in May is bound to end this year, we're still highly likely to get Alex in early June at this rate. Expected to move over the Yucatan before becoming a TS in the southern Gulf and move into Florida, per most of these runs. Ryan1000 19:03, 31 May 2022 (UTC)

Up to 50/70. Runner1001 (talk) 11:12, 1 June 2022 (UTC)
Now it's 70/80 and moving off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. And, since there's no pre-season storms this year... ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 13:17, 1 June 2022 (UTC)

91L.INVEST

And according to NRL, it's been invested to go with the 70/80. And hey, if this does become Alex, it'll still have averaged being a pre-season storm for the last four occurrences. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 13:40, 1 June 2022 (UTC)

This'll probably become a TS before hitting southwest Florida, but it isn't expected to become a hurricane, even when moving out to sea afterwards. So it looks like this incarnation of Alex will join his first one in 1998 as being the only two to not reach hurricane strength. Sadly, the pre-season streak is over this year, but assuming this becomes a named storm, 2014 will still stand as the only season since 2010 to not have a named storm form in June or earlier. Ryan1000 04:46, 2 June 2022 (UTC)
Slightly increased to 80/80. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:00, 2 June 2022 (UTC)

90/90. Bound to become Alex, or at least TD or PTC 1, before the day is out. Ryan1000 18:21, 2 June 2022 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone One

Yep, 21Z update has it as a potential tropical cyclone, with TS Watches for western Cuba and Florida. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 21:09, 2 June 2022 (UTC) E: Also shows us the new surge graphics with color scale, albeit not to the full extent because surge is only forecast at 1-3' maximum. 21:19, 2 June 2022 (UTC)

NHC forecasts a 50 mph peak, but that’s while it’s heading out to sea after its landfall in Florida, at which point this is expected to be at 40 mph. Ryan1000 00:09, 3 June 2022 (UTC)
NHC UPDATE - The winds are now at 40 mph and the pressure is now at 1002 hPa. Now all we need is the closed circulation and it'll become the first tropical storm of the season. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 12:24, 3 June 2022 (UTC)
And the closed circulating is still lacking after over eighteen hours; the latest advisory has it becoming tropical within 12-24 hours, rather than the within 12 for every other advisory. Thinking at this point land interactions is probably what's going to hopefully make it tropical (like with Claudette last year). Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 03:19, 4 June 2022 (UTC)

I'm honestly not convinced of that at this point. This PTC is too broad and elongated, while simultaneously under quite a bit of shear right now. It's more likely that this'll become Alex after crossing Florida and into the Atlantic, where it might benefit from a more favorable environment north of the Bahamas, made so by the now-dying 92L. Ryan1000 05:42, 4 June 2022 (UTC)

21Z ups the winds to 40kts and drops the pressure to 1001hPa from aircraft data. The circulation is still too broad to fully be a tropical cyclone as of now, which ties it with PTC10 back in 2017 for longest time spent as a Potential Tropical Cyclone. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 20:57, 4 June 2022 (UTC)

This still has two and a half days or so to become Alex before it undergoes extratropical transition north of Bermuda. PTC one better get on with it tomorrow or on Monday if it wants to become the first storm of the season. Ryan1000 00:04, 5 June 2022 (UTC)

11PM advisory is out, and still PTC 1. If this doesn’t become a tropical cyclone then it will be hilarious. It’s still disorganized right now… Runner1001 (talk) 03:32, 5 June 2022 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Alex

...DISTURBANCE FINALLY BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX... 45kts, 995hPa. Becomes a storm after moving through everywhere he was going to really affect. Only Bermuda is left in the path, but not likely to get much if at all stronger. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 05:57, 5 June 2022 (UTC)

Finally. Now we don't have another PTC Ten situation (like in 2017). ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 12:47, 5 June 2022 (UTC)
NHC update: Now 60/993. Runner1001 (talk) 13:27, 5 June 2022 (UTC)
65/991 now, TS warning up for Bermuda. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:08, 5 June 2022 (UTC)
70 mph and 988 mbars. If this strengthens any further, we're gonna get a hurricane. But I won't be surprised if it peaks here. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 03:27, 6 June 2022 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex

Nope. 60/993 and Alex is now post-tropical. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:14, 6 June 2022 (UTC)

Well, better late than never, but...Looks like this Alex joins his first incarnation as the second to not reach hurricane strength (unless post-season analysis upgrades him, but I don't find that likely). Also @Anonymous, we don't need to list Alex as a post-tropical cyclone in the active storms header if it's heading out to sea and isn't likely to affect land anymore, that new storm color is mainly for storms that are moving inland but still pose a rain threat or if they have a chance to regenerate. Alex isn't either of those. Ryan1000 16:54, 7 June 2022 (UTC)

92L.INVEST

AOI: SE Atlantic NE of the Bahamas

Another AOI popped up, 10/10, and not expected to become anything. Runner1001 (talk) 11:12, 1 June 2022 (UTC)

I'm quite surprised this even showed up at all, to be honest. The GFS had been making this a tropical storm but they're not doing that anymore. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 13:21, 1 June 2022 (UTC)
0/0. Won't form. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 13:26, 2 June 2022 (UTC)

Off the TWO. Ryan1000 18:21, 2 June 2022 (UTC)

Back on the TWO at 10/10. It lives. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 12:25, 3 June 2022 (UTC)

92L.INVEST

They actually invested this… I don’t get the point… Runner1001 (talk) 14:31, 3 June 2022 (UTC)

Meh...Neither do I. It's clearly not well organized and will be torn apart in a day or two. Ryan1000 17:21, 3 June 2022 (UTC)
~0/~0. Runner1001 (talk) 07:35, 4 June 2022 (UTC)

93L.INVEST

AOI: GFS WCar storm

Not yet on the TWO, but GFS and it's ensembles have been predicting tropical cyclogenesis over the western Carribbean Sea for a while, and consistently taking the system to hurricane strength and thence into Belize. The GFS expects cyclogenesis by day 4-5 and landfall by day 7-8. Something to watch out for. JavaHurricane 04:55, 12 June 2022 (UTC)

Appeared on the 5-day TWO earlier today. 0/20. Ryan1000 23:09, 12 June 2022 (UTC)

0/30, but will still take time to form. Ryan1000 14:45, 13 June 2022 (UTC)

10/40 and it's now on the 2-day TWO. Bonnie could be here soon enough. Ryan1000 20:47, 13 June 2022 (UTC)

93L.INVEST

Per Tidbits, this is now 93L. Ryan1000 19:15, 14 June 2022 (UTC)

30/40. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:02, 14 June 2022 (UTC)

The runs on Tidbits seem to take 93L over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras before emerging off the north coast of Honduras, passing over Belize, and into the Bay of Campeche before hitting southern Mexico. It may not become a hurricane if that happens, unless it gets Bonnie before hitting Belize and then blows up in the BOC, like say, Franklin of 2017. Ryan1000 23:52, 14 June 2022 (UTC)

Now inland and 10/20, but it is still a little early to say if this will bust or not, since some development is possible when it passes the Gulf of Honduras. Runner1001 (talk) 14:15, 16 June 2022 (UTC)

The tidbits runs no longer take this into the BOC, so it'd have to develop in the Gulf of Honduras if it wants to form at all; if it doesn't, it will probably move south after passing over Belize and be absorbed by the quickly developing 93E in the EPac. Bonnie may have to wait. Ryan1000 16:33, 16 June 2022 (UTC)

Down to 0/0. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:17, 18 June 2022 (UTC)

And off the TWO. Looks like Celia absorbed this, so Bonnie will have to wait until later. Ryan1000 19:28, 18 June 2022 (UTC)

02L.NONAME

AOI: South of Cabo Verde

0/20, and could develop when it reaches the Antilles...man, this is some serious deja vu. Looks a lot like how Elsa came near the start of July in 2021, but then again Elsa had a second invest (95L) at the time to help her develop so early in the year. That might not be the case with this system. Ryan1000 19:12, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

Welp, 8 PM TWO ups this to 20/40 already, please don't, don't... Ryan1000 23:57, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

94L.INVEST

Now invested, and the runs on tidbits already show this going up to hurricane intensity anywhere from 5 days to a week in advance and take it on a track eerily similar to 1933 Trinidad or Emily of 2005. Holy Sh!t, that escalated quickly...and for an MDR invest a week before the start of July, no less... Ryan1000 01:38, 24 June 2022 (UTC)

50% for 5 days now, and NHC says a depression could form as soon as early next week, perhaps Monday or Tuesday, and the tidbits runs are still insistent on a near or at hurricane-strength storm sometime late next week as it approaches or moves into the Antilles. This ain't looking good... Ryan1000 09:11, 24 June 2022 (UTC)

8 AM TWO, now 60% for 5 days...eek! I'm getting really bad feelings about this thing... Ryan1000 11:51, 24 June 2022 (UTC)

30/60, and the runs on tidbits have been quite insistent on a more southerly track lately, perhaps even south of where Emily moved over. Long-term, this may end up in Central America if that keeps up, but the conditions in the Caribbean seem more favorable than they were with Elsa at this time last year, with lighter shear and a more moist environment, so the intensity forecasts of the global models have been quite insistent on hurricane strength when it moves through the Caribbean, maybe even major hurricane strength late enough if conditions are good enough in the western Caribbean. Still a long ways ahead, but this is already looking pretty good; with how active 2021 ended up being, and last year having Elsa form from a wave in this same position at roughly the same time of year, this doesn't bode well for the heart of the season. Ryan1000 14:47, 25 June 2022 (UTC)

40/70...Bonnie is on her way. Could very well happen before the month is out. Ryan1000 10:13, 26 June 2022 (UTC)

60/80 for the 0Z update, and since it could be affecting the Windward Islands or Venezuela on Tuesday or Wednesday, notes that this could be PTC2 if it doesn't fully develop soon. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 00:31, 27 June 2022 (UTC)
70/90 now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:46, 27 June 2022 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two

Hurricane Hunter flight earlier didn't find a closed circulation, but did find 40mph winds. So, initialised at 40mph/1009hPa, with TS Warning for Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 20:56, 27 June 2022 (UTC)

This system's proximity to northern South America and the somewhat brisk forward speed (18 mph) may limit intensification despite conditions for development in the Caribbean being more favorable for late June than they otherwise would be. Ridging in the central/western Caribbean is strong, however, so it probably won't turn northward later on, and head straight on into Nicaragua as a hurricane or tropical storm. This kind of looks reminiscent of Hurricane Cesar of 1996, but that was a month later in the year (and hopefully Bonnie-to-be doesn't end up killing as many people in Central America as that storm did). Also, if this survives the crossing over Central America later on, it could maintain its intensity or strengthen in the EPac, like how Cesar became a cat 4 in the EPac (renamed as Douglas by then). Ryan1000 21:06, 27 June 2022 (UTC)
Yeah, NHC is expecting future Bonnie to become a hurricane before it strikes Nicaragua. Currently though, PTC 2 is 40/1009. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:21, 28 June 2022 (UTC)
And the 120h forecast in the latest discussion uses a line I haven't seen since Otto, "Over the Pacific". Still quite early, and she needs to form first, but I'd love to see another true crossover storm. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 21:41, 28 June 2022 (UTC)
A crossover storm since Otto in 2016 (it would still be named Bonnie in Pacific) Atlantic: cat1, Pacific: cat2. Nhatminh0207 (talk) 11:10, 29 June 2022 (UTC)
Now 80/90 and no longer expected to become a hurricane, but expected to maintain tropical storm intensity when it moves into the Pacific Ocean. We haven’t seen an ATL-EPAC crossover storm since Grace last year, and if the predictions are correct, this will be the first ATL-EPAC crossover storm without getting re-named since Otto, if memory serves. Runner1001 (talk) 12:02, 29 June 2022 (UTC)

80/90, 40/1010. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:59, 29 June 2022 (UTC)

Otto was the first storm to survive across Central America since the two-name policy for crossover storms that don’t dissipate was changed in 2000, so Bonnie-to-be would be the second. Also, cat 1 intensity at landfall in Nicaragua still can’t be entirely ruled out, as the NHC forecast only dropped the expected landfall intensity to 70 mph, just shy of that. Ryan1000 17:15, 29 June 2022 (UTC)

95L.INVEST

AOI: Northern GOM

Another one is up on the 5-day TWO, but it's only 0/20 and probably won't form. Ryan1000 07:29, 25 June 2022 (UTC)

10/20. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:49, 27 June 2022 (UTC)
Slightly upped to 20/30. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:22, 28 June 2022 (UTC)

95L.INVEST

Now invested. Runner1001 (talk) 09:38, 28 June 2022 (UTC)

Most of the ensembles from the global models still don't form this, unless it stalls off the coast of Texas for longer than it is currently expected to. Ryan1000 17:38, 28 June 2022 (UTC)
40/40. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:58, 29 June 2022 (UTC)

AOI: Behind 94L

And another one, now 0/20. Runner1001 (talk) 07:59, 27 June 2022 (UTC)

This one will be heading further north of west than 94L, over PR and the DR rather than staying further south. It might eventually become a TS east of the US down the road, but by then it will likely be turning out to sea. But this is still pretty bonkers for the MDR so early in the season, it's not even July and we have two AOI's out there, just like last year did around this time. Ryan1000 21:13, 27 June 2022 (UTC)
10/30. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:00, 29 June 2022 (UTC)
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