(→May) Tag: Source edit |
(→May) Tag: Source edit |
||
| Line 85: | Line 85: | ||
Seeing the trend the Atlantic has been setting the past 6 years (or maybe it’s just better storm detection by the NHC), I’ll start the May section now. We could very well have a seventh consecutive year with a May or earlier storm sometime in the next 3 and a half weeks. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 01:39, 6 May 2022 (UTC) |
Seeing the trend the Atlantic has been setting the past 6 years (or maybe it’s just better storm detection by the NHC), I’ll start the May section now. We could very well have a seventh consecutive year with a May or earlier storm sometime in the next 3 and a half weeks. '''''[[User:Ryan1000|Ryan]][[User talk:Ryan1000|1000]]''''' 01:39, 6 May 2022 (UTC) |
||
:It's actually been seven years already; Ana's been a preseason storm twice in a row. And looking at some GFS runs over the past two days, they've been consistently developing something in the Caribbean that moves into the Gulf in about a week's time. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the first Atlantic invest sometime near the start of the TWOs. [[User:Kieiros|Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0)]] ([[User talk:Kieiros|talk]]) 02:36, 14 May 2022 (UTC) |
:It's actually been seven years already; Ana's been a preseason storm twice in a row. And looking at some GFS runs over the past two days, they've been consistently developing something in the Caribbean that moves into the Gulf in about a week's time. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the first Atlantic invest sometime near the start of the TWOs. [[User:Kieiros|Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0)]] ([[User talk:Kieiros|talk]]) 02:36, 14 May 2022 (UTC) |
||
| + | ::I remember one of those GFS runs made this a Katrina-sized 950 mbar major, which is basically a near-impossibility for May in the Atlantic. I've even seen ECMWF runs make this Agatha or Blas in the Eastern Pacific. This one will be interesting to watch. In fact, the latest run from the GFS still makes this a hurricane too strong for this early in the year. [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|'''<font color="sky blue">☁️ Nerd</font>''']] ([[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|<font color="black">Have a conversation</font>]]) ([https://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/IbAHAn1829tree <font color="black">Inputs</font>]) 12:39, 14 May 2022 (UTC) |
||
Revision as of 12:39, 14 May 2022
| Monthly Archives: Storm Event Archives: |
|
Other Basin Talkpages (2022): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian |
Future Start
We've got 10 days until 2022 begins, so I'll make the 2022 forums now. Ryan1000 18:37, 22 December 2021 (UTC)
- This is shaping up to be yet another active season (yeah, I'm getting a bit tired of these above average years at this point). I predict the United States mainland will see 3-4 hurricane landfalls, of which 1-2 will be major hurricanes. Hopefully 2023 is much quieter than these past seven years! ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 14:22, 3 May 2022 (UTC)
Hall of Fame 2022
Since it's now 2022, anytime this year you guys can vote on which notable storms you want to induct into the Hall of Fame in each basin. Ryan1000 19:40, 6 January 2022 (UTC)
Seasonal Forecasts
| Name of Agency | Named Storms forecast | Hurricanes forecast | Major Hurricanes forecast | ACE forecast | Date Issued |
| Colorado State University (CSU) | 13-16 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 124 Units | December 9, 2021 |
| Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) | 18 | 8 | 3 | 122 Units | December 10, 2021 |
| Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) | 18 | 8 | 4 | 138 Units | April 6, 2022 |
| Colorado State University (CSU) | 19 | 9 | 4 | 160 Units | April 7, 2022 |
| The Weather Channel (TWC) | 20 | 8 | 4 | N/A | April 14, 2022 |
| University of Arizona (UA) | 14 | 7 | 3 | 129 Units | April 14, 2022 |
| North Carolina State University (NCSU) | 17-21 | 7-9 | 3-5 | N/A | April 20, 2022 |
Like with last year, we'll add a seasonal forecast section for this year. So far, two official forecasts have been issued, by CSU and TSR, and they show yet another above-average year, but they have been described as having "high uncertainties", as it's still too early to tell for sure. Ryan1000 19:40, 6 January 2022 (UTC)
- TSR and CSU just released their April forecasts for 2022, and once again both agencies predict an above-average season, but they're more confident this time due to higher confidence in El Nino not being expected this year. Ryan1000 18:58, 8 April 2022 (UTC)
Two more forecasts were issued last Thursday, The Weather Channel and University of Arizona. The former predicts 20/8/4 for named storms, hurricanes, and majors respectively, but ACE totals were not predicted. UA forecasts 14/7/3, one of the more conservative named storm forecasts thus far, and 129 ACE units, slightly above average. Ryan1000 14:22, 17 April 2022 (UTC)
- North Carolina State University (NCSU) published a forecast on April 20, calling for 17-21 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 majors, but no ACE totals were forecast. Ryan1000 13:42, 25 April 2022 (UTC)
May
Seeing the trend the Atlantic has been setting the past 6 years (or maybe it’s just better storm detection by the NHC), I’ll start the May section now. We could very well have a seventh consecutive year with a May or earlier storm sometime in the next 3 and a half weeks. Ryan1000 01:39, 6 May 2022 (UTC)
- It's actually been seven years already; Ana's been a preseason storm twice in a row. And looking at some GFS runs over the past two days, they've been consistently developing something in the Caribbean that moves into the Gulf in about a week's time. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the first Atlantic invest sometime near the start of the TWOs. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 02:36, 14 May 2022 (UTC)
- I remember one of those GFS runs made this a Katrina-sized 950 mbar major, which is basically a near-impossibility for May in the Atlantic. I've even seen ECMWF runs make this Agatha or Blas in the Eastern Pacific. This one will be interesting to watch. In fact, the latest run from the GFS still makes this a hurricane too strong for this early in the year. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 12:39, 14 May 2022 (UTC)