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Other Basin Talkpages (2022): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian |
Future Start
We've got 10 days until 2022 begins, so I'll make the 2022 forums now. Ryan1000 18:37, 22 December 2021 (UTC)
- This is shaping up to be yet another active season (yeah, I'm getting a bit tired of these above average years at this point). I predict the United States mainland will see 3-4 hurricane landfalls, of which 1-2 will be major hurricanes. Hopefully 2023 is much quieter than these past seven years! ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 14:22, 3 May 2022 (UTC)
Hall of Fame 2022
Since it's now 2022, anytime this year you guys can vote on which notable storms you want to induct into the Hall of Fame in each basin. Ryan1000 19:40, 6 January 2022 (UTC)
Seasonal Forecasts
| Name of Agency | Named Storms forecast | Hurricanes forecast | Major Hurricanes forecast | ACE forecast | Date Issued |
| Colorado State University (CSU) | 13-16 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 124 Units | December 9, 2021 |
| Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) | 18 | 8 | 3 | 122 Units | December 10, 2021 |
| Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) | 18 | 8 | 4 | 138 Units | April 6, 2022 |
| Colorado State University (CSU) | 19 | 9 | 4 | 160 Units | April 7, 2022 |
| The Weather Channel (TWC) | 20 | 8 | 4 | N/A | April 14, 2022 |
| University of Arizona (UA) | 14 | 7 | 3 | 129 Units | April 14, 2022 |
| North Carolina State University (NCSU) | 17-21 | 7-9 | 3-5 | N/A | April 20, 2022 |
| United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) | 18 | 9 | 4 | N/A | May 23, 2022 |
| National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | 14-21 | 6-10 | 3-6 | N/A | May 24, 2022 |
Like with last year, we'll add a seasonal forecast section for this year. So far, two official forecasts have been issued, by CSU and TSR, and they show yet another above-average year, but they have been described as having "high uncertainties", as it's still too early to tell for sure. Ryan1000 19:40, 6 January 2022 (UTC)
- TSR and CSU just released their April forecasts for 2022, and once again both agencies predict an above-average season, but they're more confident this time due to higher confidence in El Nino not being expected this year. Ryan1000 18:58, 8 April 2022 (UTC)
Two more forecasts were issued last Thursday, The Weather Channel and University of Arizona. The former predicts 20/8/4 for named storms, hurricanes, and majors respectively, but ACE totals were not predicted. UA forecasts 14/7/3, one of the more conservative named storm forecasts thus far, and 129 ACE units, slightly above average. Ryan1000 14:22, 17 April 2022 (UTC)
- North Carolina State University (NCSU) published a forecast on April 20, calling for 17-21 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 majors, but no ACE totals were forecast. Ryan1000 13:42, 25 April 2022 (UTC)
- NOAA put out their forecast today, 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 majors, with a 65% chance of an above-average season, 25% of near-normal, and 10% of below-average. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 18:51, 24 May 2022 (UTC)
UKMO released their forecast a day before NOAA's a week ago, and predicted 18-9-4 for TS's, 'canes, and majors. The WP article also cites a Penn state forecast, calling for 11-19 named storms, but no hurricanes, majors, or ACE totals were forecast there. Ryan1000 15:11, 31 May 2022 (UTC)
May
Seeing the trend the Atlantic has been setting the past 6 years (or maybe it’s just better storm detection by the NHC), I’ll start the May section now. We could very well have a seventh consecutive year with a May or earlier storm sometime in the next 3 and a half weeks. Ryan1000 01:39, 6 May 2022 (UTC)
- It's actually been seven years already; Ana's been a preseason storm twice in a row. And looking at some GFS runs over the past two days, they've been consistently developing something in the Caribbean that moves into the Gulf in about a week's time. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the first Atlantic invest sometime near the start of the TWOs. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 02:36, 14 May 2022 (UTC)
- I remember one of those GFS runs made this a Katrina-sized 950 mbar major, which is basically a near-impossibility for May in the Atlantic. I've even seen ECMWF runs make this Agatha or Blas in the Eastern Pacific. This one will be interesting to watch. In fact, the latest run from the GFS still makes this a hurricane too strong for this early in the year. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 12:39, 14 May 2022 (UTC)
- Tomorrow begins the issuance of the tropical weather outlooks! I'm not completely on board with the GFS yet. I think it will be helpful to wait to see if the Euro and others follow. Here's to the season ahead - which looks like yet another active one. Owen 18:16, 14 May 2022 (UTC)
- I remember one of those GFS runs made this a Katrina-sized 950 mbar major, which is basically a near-impossibility for May in the Atlantic. I've even seen ECMWF runs make this Agatha or Blas in the Eastern Pacific. This one will be interesting to watch. In fact, the latest run from the GFS still makes this a hurricane too strong for this early in the year. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 12:39, 14 May 2022 (UTC)
NHC Update: Nothing expected to form in five days in either ocean. The GFS, however, still has a hurricane in the Gulf (which surprises me, considering it's a May system), the ECMWF and the CMC have this becoming an invest of sorts in the eastern Pacific, but not becoming a full tropical cyclone. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 12:51, 15 May 2022 (UTC)
- Forgot to count the starting year for the streak, for some reason…but in any instance, the weather looks unsettled near Panama right now and I had a feeling that the models might pick up on a storm forming in the SW Caribbean or EPac in May around that area, and it looks like they have…maybe Alex, like Ana and Alberto, could have a second consecutive pre-season incarnation. Ryan1000 00:26, 19 May 2022 (UTC)
- I'm honestly not as sure of that at the moment; the GFS has been backing off of its predictions (so sadly no longer predicting the totally accurate major in the Gulf in May), and the ECMWF and other models haven't really picked up anything. Still too early to rule out something developing at the very end of the month, but the safer bet is that not having a pre-season storm is more likely than having one, and that seems to be moving safer at the moment. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 02:47, 19 May 2022 (UTC)
90L.INVEST
AOI: North Central Gulf of Mexico
And the first Atlantic AOI is here. Associated with a weak surface trough heading towards the coast. Only 10/10 because of the lack of time to develop, and honestly that seems a bit generous. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 18:36, 22 May 2022 (UTC)
- Yep, it's gone without really doing anything Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 18:51, 24 May 2022 (UTC)
- Think this system was designated as 90L before going bust. Anyway, this season might finally break the early start streak that had been going on since 2015, though there is still a chance that a late May storm may form. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 19:17, 25 May 2022 (UTC)
June
Starting this 4 days before the start of the next month. Looks like the early streak ends this year. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:33, 28 May 2022 (UTC)
- Yeah, the only way it could (technically) continue is if Agatha moves into the BOC as a tropical storm sometime on May 31, in which case it would technically count as a May storm in the Atlantic, just not an Atlantic-forming system. Ryan1000 23:42, 28 May 2022 (UTC)
01L.NONAME
AOI: Agatha's remnants
The TWO for the Atlantic shows that Agatha (or even potentially a new area of low pressure) has a 30% chance of developing within the Bay of Campeche and/or northwestern Caribbean within 5 days. ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 16:22, 29 May 2022 (UTC)
- And it's up to 0/50 Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 03:43, 31 May 2022 (UTC)
- 10/60 now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:21, 31 May 2022 (UTC)
While the streak of storms forming in May is bound to end this year, we're still highly likely to get Alex in early June at this rate. Expected to move over the Yucatan before becoming a TS in the southern Gulf and move into Florida, per most of these runs. Ryan1000 19:03, 31 May 2022 (UTC)
- Up to 50/70. Runner1001 (talk) 11:12, 1 June 2022 (UTC)
- Now it's 70/80 and moving off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. And, since there's no pre-season storms this year... ☁️ Nerd (Have a conversation) (Inputs) 13:17, 1 June 2022 (UTC)
91L.INVEST
And according to NRL, it's been invested to go with the 70/80. And hey, if this does become Alex, it'll still have averaged being a pre-season storm for the last four occurrences. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 13:40, 1 June 2022 (UTC)
- This'll probably become a TS before hitting southwest Florida, but it isn't expected to become a hurricane, even when moving out to sea afterwards. So it looks like this incarnation of Alex will join his first one in 1998 as being the only two to not reach hurricane strength. Sadly, the pre-season streak is over this year, but assuming this becomes a named storm, 2014 will still stand as the only season since 2010 to not have a named storm form in June or earlier. Ryan1000 04:46, 2 June 2022 (UTC)
- Slightly increased to 80/80. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:00, 2 June 2022 (UTC)
90/90. Bound to become Alex, or at least TD or PTC 1, before the day is out. Ryan1000 18:21, 2 June 2022 (UTC)
Potential Tropical Cyclone One
Yep, 21Z update has it as a potential tropical cyclone, with TS Watches for western Cuba and Florida. Kieros (ΧΕΠ 0ω0) (talk) 21:09, 2 June 2022 (UTC) E: Also shows us the new surge graphics with color scale, albeit not to the full extent because surge is only forecast at 1-3' maximum. 21:19, 2 June 2022 (UTC)
- NHC forecasts a 50 mph peak, but that’s while it’s heading out to sea after its landfall in Florida, at which point this is expected to be at 40 mph. Ryan1000 00:09, 3 June 2022 (UTC)
AOI: SE Atlantic NE of the Bahamas
Another AOI popped up, 10/10, and not expected to become anything. Runner1001 (talk) 11:12, 1 June 2022 (UTC)