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Other Basin Talkpages (2017): Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian |
Worldwide activity discussion[]
Worldwide activity discussion (continued pt. 4)[]
Ok! The world is going through some serious inactivity right now. The Atlantic has had 2 very close storms, but both of them failed. The MJO is in the Atlantic which is stopping the WPac, which usually peaks right now, to have any form of activity. Despite such a strong MJO in the Atlantic, the low vertical instability (which has reigned all year) and high wind shear are stopping everything from being anything. There also seems to be a lack of vertical instability in the WPac as they are having a deficit of typhoons. Seems like all of it moved to the EPac. All I can say is, because of the lack of heat released in the Caribbean this year, and the fact that it is going to be a La Nina year next year, we could see some serious storms pop up in the Caribbean. Yqt1001 12:40, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
- not 1 but 2 at last we may get Rina after all and if we have luck we would get Sean Allanjeffs 05:21, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
- The west pacific seem so dead but maybe now that the MJO is moving back and probalble have 4 storm now Allanjeffs 04:33, October 26, 2011 (UTC)
- Yep, the WPAC will tie the October record low (1 storm) if we can't get another storm by 2359 UTC on October 31. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:22, October 27, 2011 (UTC)
- We couls have Tammy if we have luck at the middle of this month Allanjeffs 12:16, November 8, 2011 (UTC)
- I would say getting to Alpha is the furthest we'll go, but we're likely not going past Vince. 04L.ANDREW 23:44, November 12, 2011 (UTC)
- Worldwide, this is the third consecutive year in a row in which we were dead worldwide. We currently have a total of only 64 storms worldwide in 2011. Last year was the second-least active season ever, with 68 named storms, and 1977 had 60. The main reason for this was the SWIO and NIO. The southern hemisphere had only 16 storms this year, with Arani, the SPac's 6, the AUS region's 7, and the SWIO's measly two... The SWIO normally is the most active SHem basin, but they had their least active season on record this year, if not the least active in many, many, many years. NIO had only one storm thus far, which will be a record there too if we don't get one more named storm before January 1(1993). WPac had only 19 named storms on their part, which would make for the third least active season ever after last year and 1998. EPac somehow had more hurricanes and major hurricanes than the Atlantic despite only having about half the number of named storms, with 10, and if we don't get a 4-storm December this year, we will beat last year as being the second least active worldwide season on record. 1977 likely won't be beaten for a long time to come, if they ever will. Ryan1000 21:13, November 14, 2011 (UTC)
IMO, the most shocking thing about 2011 is that the North Atlantic had more named storms than the entire Southern Hemisphere (18 v. 16)! That's crazy! Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 00:24, November 15, 2011 (UTC)
Last year the Atlantic beat the WPac basin, but that was only because the WPac had their least active season on record, and 2005 was the most active ever. 2005 is not only the first known year in history to have more ATL storms than WPac storms, but it was also the first, if not one of only very few, seasons to surpass the SHem. We still have November and December left in 2011 though, so don't write off SHem just yet. 2005 also had 97 storms form worldwide, which is by far the highest ever. Ryan1000 03:29, November 15, 2011 (UTC)
Now we have TD 13 in the EPAC, and 2 INVESTS in the SWIO. 17:31, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
Here are our worldwide totals:
West Pacific: 21 storms
East Pacific: 11 storms
Atlantic: 20 storms
North Indian Ocean: 2 cyclonic storms
South-West Indian Ocean: 4 storms (we got Benilde)
South Pacific: 6 storms
Australian Region: 9 storms
This year, we had 73 storms. That's not a lot. 20:45, December 28, 2011 (UTC)
- Well it would help if you counted the same things each time. :P In the ATL, you counted TD10 as a storm, but you didn't count the TDs in the EPac. Yqt1001 21:17, December 28, 2011 (UTC)
- No, Andrew counted the SAtl's Arani as a named storm. Surely you would remember that, you and I tracked her back in March. The NIO and SWIO had record-dead seasons and really held us down, but ATL was still active. EPac had tons of strong storms for so few overall storms, but ACEwise, 2011 was unimpressive, except for EPac. It will be memorable with Irene, Yasi, Talas, Lee, and of course, Washi, but overall activity wasn't as high as it could've been. It was a year of missed opportunities, but it was still memorable enough. However Andrew, you forgot to add the latter storm(Benilde) of the SWIO region(all in all, there was Bingiza, Cherono, Alenga and Benilde there), so we actually had 73 named storms. Ryan1000 21:23, December 31, 2011 (UTC)
Worldwide activity discussion of 2012[]
Because there is speculation as to what 2012 will have worldwide, this forum is for discussing the activity of 2012 and what anyone thinks we will have. I think we may have an El Nino event, but it isn't guranteed, since we have another 6 months until 2012 begins. By then I will post my predictions. Ryan1000 00:57, July 10, 2011 (UTC)
Are you sure we should have this section? I don't know about this. Andrew444 02:42, July 10, 2011 (UTC)
- Yes, I believe this forum is necessary. This went on a long ways in the EPac forum, which is now on a seperate forum, but come next year, this section will go on quite long as well. I made this forum ahead of time, but we will get lots of activity on this forum when 2012 actually arrives. Ryan1000 03:39, July 10, 2011 (UTC)
- Why couldn't we use the same forum as 2011?Cyclone10 00:15, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
- Now that you say it, we could archive the WAD in this year and start it again in 2012. If you have comments, ask me on my talk page. Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:03, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
- Yes. WAD should be archived yearly. Its good practice and reduces clutter and time. Once WAD gets popular, we could start archiving by seasons and if it gets really active by months just like the basin forums. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:07, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
- We will probably archive using numbers (archive1, archive 2, ect.YE Tropical Cyclone 02:09, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
- How about this: we archive the WAD every year (like 2011, 2012, ect.) 10L.NONAME 23:18, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
- Agreed, if this forum becomes popular, we can archive it yearly, but now, we could leave it as the same forum as the 2011 WAD. Ryan1000 08:25, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
- Why is the SPAC so dead this year?--Cy10 06:29, January 17, 2012 (UTC)
- @Cy10: I think it's because of the fact we're in a La Nina pattern right now. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 23:00, January 17, 2012 (UTC)
- Agreed, if this forum becomes popular, we can archive it yearly, but now, we could leave it as the same forum as the 2011 WAD. Ryan1000 08:25, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
- How about this: we archive the WAD every year (like 2011, 2012, ect.) 10L.NONAME 23:18, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
- We will probably archive using numbers (archive1, archive 2, ect.YE Tropical Cyclone 02:09, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
- Yes. WAD should be archived yearly. Its good practice and reduces clutter and time. Once WAD gets popular, we could start archiving by seasons and if it gets really active by months just like the basin forums. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:07, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
- This should be moved to the Original one of 2011, not on it's own page. And yes, because we were off of a La Nina winter, the sluggish SPac activity kinda makes sense. Though I don't know if it will persist for the Atlantic, it still bears watching. Ryan1000 03:28, March 11, 2012 (UTC)
...And in response to that, the EPac and ATL have record-setting kickoffs. Ryan1000 21:29, May 25, 2012 (UTC)
Well, we got some activity as a result of the MJO surge into the EPAC and ATL basins. MJO is now in NIO. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:33, July 2, 2012 (UTC)
This forum isn't as active as it once had been last year, but NIO gets two peaks, in May and November. July is not their month to see storms. ATL is also quieting down, but EPac is getting a few more storms. Ryan1000 03:29, July 4, 2012 (UTC)
So far this year in the NHEM:
- Atlantic: 10 storms
- East Pacific: 8 storms
- West Pacific: 15 storms
- North Indian: 0 storms
The WPAC finally got more storms than the Atlantic. 21:42, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
Total of 33 storms for the NHem. 07:27, August 26, 2012 (UTC)
Worldwide activity discussion of 2013[]
The hurricane season has started in the year 2013! Who knows what mother nature holds this year hurricane wise! Will there be a devastating hurricane in Texas, or will there be a hurricane hitting New York City? Who knows what will happen in the future of hurricanes! Preston108 03:56, April 4, 2013 (UTC)
- I'm still sticking with the forecasts from my blog post I made earlier, but I'm not sure, this year sounds eerilie reminicent of 2005, which was also ENSO-neutral. I'm still thinking a re-2008 or 2004. Ryan1000 12:35, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
I do not know what is going on with the Northern Hemisphere. This year, so far, we are having a HUGE power outage of intense systems. But again, this probably is a continuation of the post-2008 Northern Hemisphere activity. 2009 was a very dead year for the Atlantic. It was the quietest season since 1997. The North Indian Ocean cyclone season was also very silent, with only one hurricane-force system during the entire season (Aila, which barely even counted), and the West Pacific was not so hot either (but still had some bad storms like Ketsana). However, the East Pacific ruled; despite the lack of strong storms, it still had some unforgettable major hurricanes (Felicia, Jimena, Rick, and Neki). 2010 was the year the Atlantic rocked, and the North Indian Ocean was also very good. But the East and West Pacific both fell asleep except when Celia and Megi roamed. 2011 may have been a year the Atlantic produced nonstop, but the amount of hurricanes was horrendous, and only Irene will be remembered. The East Pacific was AWESOME (Kenneth and Adrian), but not so much in the West Pacific (minus Songda, Talas, and Washi) or the North Indian Ocean. 2012 was okay for the Atlantic hurricanewise, but Michael and Sandy were majors for such short time it made the major hurricane hours pathetic. The East Pacific really had nothing besides Daniel, Emilia, and Carlotta. The West Pacific was fine, but only Bopha, Sanba, and Jelawat were that strong. And this year, goodness gracious! The Northern Hemisphere has produced only one Category 2 or stronger storm (Soulik) this whole year! It is August. The North Indian Ocean and Atlantic have had weak starts, and the Pacific is not any better. What is going on?
Also, here is a comparison of the Category 2+ storms at this time (August 5) in the Northern Hemisphere versus the past five years:
2013:
- Atlantic
- None
- East Pacific
- None
- West Pacific
- Soulik
- North Indian Ocean
- None
- Total: 1
2012:
- Atlantic
- None
- East Pacific
- Bud
- Carlotta
- Daniel
- Emilia
- Fabio
- West Pacific
- Mawar
- Guchol
- Vicente
- Saola
- North Indian Ocean
- None
- Total: 9
2011:
- Atlantic
- None
- East Pacific
- Adrian
- Dora
- Eugene
- West Pacific
- Songda
- Ma-on
- Muifa
- North Indian Ocean
- None
- Total: 6
2010:
- Atlantic
- Alex
- East Pacific
- Celia
- Darby
- West Pacific
- None
- North Indian Ocean
- Phet
- Total: 4
2009:
- Atlantic
- None
- East Pacific
- Carlos
- Felicia
- West Pacific
- Kujira
- Chan-hom
- North Indian Ocean
- None
- Total: 4
So we are behind the past four years in terms of Category 2+ storms. 22:02, August 5, 2013 (UTC)
Mother Nature seems to be pulling some weird trick on us this year. They say its a La Nina, but it's not looking like one at all. The Atlantic is just so boring this year. Five tropical storms, none past tropical storm intensity, and all very pathetic. Even 1992, 1994, and 2009 had spit out more than this. Meanwhile, the Pacific is going nuts. Ten tropical storms and six hurricanes. This is a La Nina, but it's like it is ENSO right now over there! If I were to comment on this, I'd honestly say we are entering an El Nino. 17:01, August 21, 2013 (UTC)
Andrew check 2001 and look how it ends there was not even a hurricane at this point.Allanjeffs 21:02, August 21, 2013 (UTC)
Check this swag out. http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/no-atlantic-hurricanes-through-august-20130821 I am impatiently waiting for a hurricane. File:Pinkamena ii.pngTHIS IS PINKAMENAFile:Pinkamena.png 21:11, August 21, 2013 (UTC)
Yeah, it really seems like there is an El Nino, with the crazy Central Pacific activity and the amount of EPac storms vs. Atlantic storms. But I hope that the Atlantic gets a hurricane soon. It's been boring over there. Steven09876 T |C 21:20, August 21, 2013 (UTC)
2011 got its first hurricane, Irene, tomorrow. 2011 aside, we are now the first Atlantic season since 2006 to not have a hurricane this late in the year, and the first time since 2001 this happened in a La Nina year. 21:49, August 21, 2013 (UTC)
- Looking back on my post three months later, I am surprised as to how the tropics redeemed itself. Here are our current totals (using SSHS criteria):
Atlantic: 13 total depressions, 12 total storms, 2 hurricanes
East Pacific: 21 total depressions, 20 total storms, 9 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane
West Pacific: 34 total depressions (49 per JMA), 27 total storms (31 per JMA), 16 typhoons (13 per JMA, 17 total), 10 "major" typhoons
North Indian Ocean: 4 total depressions (7 per IMD), 4 total storms (2 per IMD), 1 hurricane-force cyclone, 1 major hurricane-force cyclone
South-West Indian Ocean: 8 total depressions (9 per RSMC La Reunion), 8 total storms (7 per RSMC La Reunion), 5 hurricane-force cyclones, 2 major hurricane-force cyclones
Australian Region: 9 total depressions (11 per BoM), 9 total storms (8 per BoM), 5 hurricane-force cyclones, 1 major-hurricane force cyclone
South Pacific Ocean: 3 total depressions (11 per RSMC Nadi), 3 total storms, 2 hurricane-force cyclones, 1 major-hurricane force cyclone
Total: 117 depressions, 74 storms, 40 hurricane-force cyclones, 16 major hurricane-force cyclones
Surprisingly, we are doing better than I thought. It looks like 2013 is not so dead after all. 02:32, November 18, 2013 (UTC)
Depends on the basin you are talking about.The Epac may have a lot of storms but it only has one major the Atlantic lets no go there,the Wpac instead that one has really redeem itself.Allanjeffs 04:48, November 18, 2013 (UTC)
- Well, one EPAC major is better than none. The NIO also seems to be coming back; we got Helen and now another depression destined to explode. The AUS region just got Alessia as well. And yes, the WPAC definitely redeemed itself with Haiyan and the other intense storms we have witnessed. 21:35, November 23, 2013 (UTC)
- Um, really quiet in this forum. Say, this forum hasn't been active for 4 years. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:33, November 18, 2017 (UTC)
Worldwide activity discussion of 2018[]
As said by 68 above, this forum is dead. So I felt that this should be started again. Anyway, its a little early for this. Nevertheless, what are your expectations for the activity in the upcoming year?--182.58.43.102 15:54, November 27, 2017 (UTC)
- Well, 2018 is here, so let's attempt to revive this too. Given the current La Nina event and the recent general SHem deadness, I'm going to say the SHem will likely remain inactive, and so will the EPac thanks to La Nina. But the Atlantic will probably be very active like last year. About the WPac and NIO, I'm hoping we see some stronger storms compared to last year (provided they miss land). ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:45, January 4, 2018 (UTC)
- An ongoing trend seems to be three years of active seasons and then three years of barely anything. I think this year will be similar to 2016 in terms of the damage and the activity. And then for 2019 I think it will be rather quiet Katagma 00:50, May 8, 2018 (UTC)
Worldwide activity discussion of 2019[]
Shouldn't we revive this? What do you think? JavaHurricane 08:52, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
- I think we should, especially now that activity seems to have scattered around the world -- with the 3 major basins (Atl, EPac & WPac) getting roughly the same number of named storms. Not to mention that several destructive cyclones have existed in virtually all basins this year: Idai, Veronica, Fani, Lekima, Dorian, Hagibis. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:41, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
- The TC season so far has been pretty underwhelming. The EPAC is lagging behind in ACE and forecasts. The ATL has been pretty bad except for Dorian and Lorenzo. The WPAC has been below average. Only the NIO has been climatologically intersting - all storms became strong and significant. -- JavaHurricane 17:13, October 26, 2019 (UTC)